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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

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305989118 · May 202619922001200920172026
48 results for missing outcomes

New methods for estimating treatment effects with missing data.

problem Missing outcome data complicates estimating treatment effects.
method Proposed two de-biased machine learning estimators (mDR-learner and mEP-learner) to address under-representation.
result Oracle efficiency of the proposed estimators under reasonable conditions.

Study tackles variable selection with missing covariates and outcomes using machine learning and imputation.

problem Missing data in both covariates and outcomes complicates variable selection in health studies.
method Exploits machine learning flexibility and bootstrap imputation for variable selection, comparing multiple methods.
result XGBoost and BART perform best in variable selection with bootstrap imputation, achieving high F1F_1 scores and low Type I errors.

Two-stage TMLE reduces bias and improves efficiency in CRTs.

problem Differential outcome measurement and imbalance in baseline predictors in CRTs.
method Two-stage targeted minimum loss-based estimator (TMLE) to adjust for baseline covariates.
result Our approach nearly eliminates bias due to differential outcome measurement.

The paper proposes a method to estimate treatment effects using surrogates when primary outcomes are missing.

problem Missing primary outcomes in causal inference applications can lead to biased estimates.
method Doubly robust method that uses both labeled and unlabeled data, incorporating surrogates.
result The proposed estimator is asymptotically normal and has improved variance compared to methods using only labeled data.

TMLE improves causal effect estimation in missing data scenarios with various positivity violations.

problem Estimating causal effects in studies with missing data and positivity violations.
method Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation (TMLE) with various missing data methods.
result Complete cases with TMLE incorporating an outcome-missingness model exhibit lower bias and greater robustness against positivity violations.

Estimates missing distributions using nearest neighbors with kernel methods.

problem Missing data and unobserved confounding in multivariate distributions.
method Distributional matrix completion framework with kernel nearest neighbors.
result Consistent recovery of underlying distributions with missing data.

Study uses surrogate data to improve treatment effect estimation with scarce outcome data.

problem Limited outcome data hinders estimating treatment effects.
method Uses abundant surrogate data to estimate treatment effects without stringent assumptions.
result Improves precision of treatment effect estimation.

Two methods use BART to model missing data in leaf photosynthetic trait data.

problem Handling missing data in multivariate outcomes with non-ignorable mechanisms.
method Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) for joint modeling of data and missingness indicators.
result Both methods effectively recover various missingness mechanisms and outperform existing approaches.

Novel concentration inequalities are obtained for the missing mass, i.e. the total probability mass of the outcomes not observed in the sample. We derive distribution-free deviation bounds with sublinear exponents in deviation size for missing mass and improve the results of Berend and Kontorovich (2013) and Yari Saeed…

2015-03-20abs ↗pdf ↗

Kernel ridge regression for causal inference with missing data.

problem Estimating treatment effects with missing data in selected samples.
method Kernel ridge regression estimators for nonparametric dose response curves and semiparametric treatment effects.
result Uniform consistency and finite sample rates for continuous treatment, root-n consistency for discrete treatment.

Estimator improves prediction with missing data in multi-environment settings.

problem Handling missing data in multi-environment settings for robust prediction.
method Derive an estimator from invariance objective under missing outcomes.
result The estimator achieves lower prediction error despite using a biased imputation model.

Proposes a method to improve CATE estimation by imputing missing potential outcomes.

problem Statistical discrepancy between distinct treatment groups in CATE estimation.
method Contrastive learning approach to reliably impute missing potential outcomes for a subset of individuals.
result Improves the accuracy and robustness of CATE estimation models.

Study examines impact of missing data on multi-armed bandit algorithms.

problem Impact of missing data on performance of multi-armed bandit algorithms.
method Extensive simulation study of two-armed bandit algorithms with binary outcomes, considering different probabilities of missingness.
result Impact on performance varies depending on the balance between exploration and exploitation.

Missing responses is a missing data format in which outcomes are not always observed. In this work we develop kernel machines that can handle missing responses. First, we propose a kernel machine family that uses mainly the complete cases. For the quadratic loss, we then propose a family of doubly-robust kernel machine…

2018-06-07abs ↗pdf ↗

New approach uses autoregressive models to explore and quantify uncertainty in decision-making.

problem Quantifying and exploring uncertainty in online decision-making.
method Reformulates uncertainty as missing future outcomes, training autoregressive models for next-outcome prediction.
result Establishes a reduction from online learning to offline next-outcome prediction, controlling Bayesian regret by sequence prediction loss.

DRUM transfers cardiac arrest models across registries with missing covariates.

problem Clinical prediction models fail when key training covariates are unavailable at deployment.
method DRUM transfers models to target populations with structurally missing covariates, optimizing worst-case predictive performance over unknown target distributions.
result DRUM yields better-calibrated predictions and improved clinical classification performance across sites.

HPPCA improves imputation of longitudinal data with missing values.

problem Handling incomplete, high-dimensional longitudinal data with nested sources of variation and temporal dependency.
method Hierarchical probabilistic principal component analysis (HPPCA) with a two-level latent factor model and Gaussian process.
result HPPCA outperforms standard PPCA and multivariate functional PCA in imputation accuracy, even under heavy missingness and model misspecification.

The paper addresses estimating long-term treatment effects with monotone missing data.

problem Estimating long-term treatment effects with missing data, especially monotone missing.
method The paper introduces the sequential missingness assumption for identification and proposes three novel estimation methods: inverse probability weighting, sequential regression imputation, and SeqMSM. It also introduces a balancing-enhanced approach, BalanceNet, to improve estimation accuracy.
result The proposed methods, including BalanceNet, effectively estimate long-term treatment effects with monotone missing data.

ELMV uses ensemble learning to handle missing values in EHR data.

problem Significant missing values in EHR data cause bias and unreliable conclusions.
method ELMV constructs multiple subsets with lower missing rates and uses a support set for ensemble learning.
result ELMV outperforms conventional methods in critical feature identification and outcome prediction.

This paper shows that one cannot learn the probability of rare events without imposing further structural assumptions. The event of interest is that of obtaining an outcome outside the coverage of an i.i.d. sample from a discrete distribution. The probability of this event is referred to as the "missing mass". The impo…

2015-03-12abs ↗pdf ↗

We are concerned with obtaining novel concentration inequalities for the missing mass, i.e. the total probability mass of the outcomes not observed in the sample. We not only derive - for the first time - distribution-free Bernstein-like deviation bounds with sublinear exponents in deviation size for missing mass, but …

2015-03-10abs ↗pdf ↗

Method tackles missing covariates in large-scale datasets.

problem Cross-population missing data problem in large-scale datasets.
method Augmented transfer regression learning method combining importance-weighted estimating equations and imputation terms.
result Estimator is n1/2n^{1/2}-consistent and asymptotically normal, attaining semiparametric efficiency bound under correct specification.

Imputation-free method learns tabular data with missing values using transformer.

problem Machine learning on tabular data with missing values often leads to unreliable outcomes due to synthetic imputation.
method Incremental attention learning (IFIAL) using transformer with attention masks.
result IFIAL outperforms state-of-the-art methods in 17 diverse tabular data sets.

Estimates treatment effects in time series data with always-missing controls.

problem Lack of control group in time series data, especially during specific events.
method Recover control group in event period, account for confounders and temporal dependencies.
result Robust estimation of control group's potential outcome and accurate predicted holiday effect.

BSFP method reveals latent patterns in multi-omic data for predicting lung function in HIV-associated OLD.

problem Limited understanding of multi-omic molecular phenomena and clinical outcomes in obstructive lung disease.
method Bayesian Simultaneous Factorization and Prediction (BSFP) method for multi-omic data, accommodating imputation and full posterior inference.
result BSFP reveals distinct clusters of patients with OLD and multi-omic patterns related to lung function decline.

Proposes a method to make statistical inferences robust in spatially dependent settings with missing at random labels.

problem Statistical inference challenges with missing at random labels and spatial dependence.
method Doubly robust estimator with cross-fit nuisances and jackknife spatial HAC variance correction.
result Asymptotically valid confidence intervals with improved finite-sample calibration.

The paper targets optimal interventions for long-term outcomes using imputed data and policy learning.

problem Maximizing long-term outcomes observed only in the future.
method Imputing missing long-term outcomes and using a doubly-robust approach for policy evaluation and optimization.
result The approach outperforms simple short-term proxies and achieves significant revenue impact over three years.

FOCUS method forecasts counterfactuals in panel data with time series dynamics.

problem Forecasting unobserved potential outcomes in causal inference with missing entries and latent factors.
method FOCUS extends matrix completion methods by leveraging time series dynamics of latent factors.
result FOCUS method outperforms existing benchmarks in predicting future counterfactuals.

Bayesian approach models nonignorable missing data using copulas and marginal quantiles.

problem Nonignorable missing data in lead exposure and test score analysis.
method Gaussian copula model with auxiliary marginal quantiles for missingness indicators and study variables.
result Efficient MCMC algorithm estimates copula correlation and marginal distributions consistently.

Modern bio-technologies have produced a vast amount of high-throughput data with the number of predictors far greater than the sample size. In order to identify more novel biomarkers and understand biological mechanisms, it is vital to detect signals weakly associated with outcomes among ultrahigh-dimensional predictor…

2018-05-17abs ↗pdf ↗