Bayesian methods often misinterpret data and asymptotic concepts.
problem Misunderstandings in Bayesian predictive inference.
method Discussion of two specific misunderstandings.
result Consequences of misinterpretations illustrated through examples.
Improves AI system's understanding of human inputs by creating better examples.
problem AI systems misinterpret human inputs, leading to inefficiencies.
method Developed a conditional convolutional autoencoder (CCAE) to generate better examples.
result Generated examples lead to lower error rates and require less effort to create.
The notion of market impact is subtle and sometimes misinterpreted. Here we argue that impact should not be misconstrued as volatility. In particular, the so-called ``square-root impact law'', which states that impact grows as the square-root of traded volume, has nothing to do with price diffusion, i.e. that typical p…
This study revisits Fama-French models using sample innovations to address misinterpretation of high R-squared values.
problem Misinterpretation of high R-squared values in Fama-French models due to serial dependence and volatility clustering.
method Use of sample innovations to derive standard econometrics time series models to overcome misinterpretation.
result Suggests the Fama-French model should consider heavy-tail distributions due to relevant tail behavior in financial data.
Publication bias skews asset pricing research findings.
problem Bias in sharing and publishing research findings.
method Meta-studies and empirical Bayes corrections.
result Publication bias effects are minimal and not dominant.
Improves model predictability by mixing forecasts and orthogonalizing models.
problem Redundant models contaminate model space and degrade predictive performance.
method Principal Component Analysis for model orthogonalization in Bayesian forecast mixing.
result Better prediction accuracy and excellent uncertainty quantification.
Globalization is one of the central concepts of our age. The common perception of the process is that, due to declining communication and transport costs, distance becomes less and less important. However, the distance coefficient in the gravity model of trade, which grows in time, indicates that the role of distance i…
This paper explains double descent using VC theory.
problem Understanding the generalization of overfitting neural networks.
method VC-theoretical analysis of double descent.
result Double descent can be explained by classical VC-generalization bounds.
Smart city surveillance benefits from sound event recognition.
problem Improving monitoring capabilities in smart cities.
method Exploration of several classifiers on the SESA dataset.
result SGD achieved 72.13% accuracy in sound event recognition.
In recent years, significant progress has been made in solving challenging problems across various domains using deep reinforcement learning (RL). Reproducing existing work and accurately judging the improvements offered by novel methods is vital to sustaining this progress. Unfortunately, reproducing results for state…
With recent advances in deep learning, neuroimaging studies increasingly rely on convolutional networks (ConvNets) to predict diagnosis based on MR images. To gain a better understanding of how a disease impacts the brain, the studies visualize the salience maps of the ConvNet highlighting voxels within the brain major…
Unintended effects from scaling neural network outputs with adaptive learning rates.
problem Adaptive learning rate optimization's behavior is altered by output scaling, leading to misinterpretation.
method Presented a modified optimization algorithm to mitigate unintended effects.
result Adaptive learning rate's effectiveness is significantly impacted by output scaling, especially for small scaling factors.
New method disentangles feature importance scores in machine learning.
problem Misinterpretation of feature importance scores due to interactions and dependencies.
method Derive DIP (Disentangled Importance) decomposition of feature importance scores.
result DIP decomposition uniquely separates standalone contributions from interactions and dependencies.
CCHM algorithm learns BN structure with latent variables, improving causal effect measurement.
problem Latent variables cause spurious relationships in BN structure learning.
method Hybrid approach combining constraint-based and score-based learning, incorporating do-calculus.
result CCHM outperforms state-of-the-art in reconstructing true BN structure.
Feature selection has been proven a powerful preprocessing step for high-dimensional data analysis. However, most state-of-the-art methods tend to overlook the structural correlation information between pairwise samples, which may encapsulate useful information for refining the performance of feature selection. Moreove…
Hierarchical hidden Markov models predict market trends in financial time series.
problem Misinterpretation of short-term price fluctuations as long-term trend changes.
method Hierarchical hidden Markov models to capture both short- and long-term trends.
result Hierarchical models provide a comprehensive picture of financial markets.
EvoRate metric assesses learnability of sequential data by measuring predictive information.
problem Model misspecification due to misinterpreting patterns in sequential data.
method Predictive information framework based on mutual information between past and future.
result Temporal patterns fundamentally constrain learnability; optimal predictors cannot outperform intrinsic information limit.
XAI methods struggle with identifying true predictors from suppressors in linear datasets.
problem XAI methods misidentify suppressor variables as important features.
method Carefully crafted linear ground-truth dataset to study suppressor variables; evaluated various XAI methods.
result Most XAI methods fail to distinguish true predictors from suppressors in linear settings.
Unified framework deciphers global central bank communications.
problem Misinterpretations of central bank communications can disproportionately impact vulnerable populations.
method Developed the World Central Banks (WCB) dataset, annotated and reviewed sentences, defined tasks, and benchmarked models.
result A model trained on aggregated data across banks outperforms models trained on individual bank data.
Study reveals XAI methods fail in neuroimaging, suggesting domain-specific adaptation.
problem Systematic failures of XAI methods in neuroimaging applications.
method Systematic comparison of XAI methods on 45,000 structural brain MRIs using a novel validation framework.
result Two widely used XAI methods (GradCAM and Layer-wise Relevance Propagation) fail to accurately explain neuroimaging data.
Mastering the dynamics of social influence requires separating, in a database of information propagation traces, the genuine causal processes from temporal correlation, i.e., homophily and other spurious causes. However, most studies to characterize social influence, and, in general, most data-science analyses focus on…
Coupled entropy corrects flaws in Tsallis entropy for complex systems.
problem Misinterpretation of generalized temperature and entropy.
method Derived from generalized Pareto and Student's t distributions.
result Provides balanced measure of uncertainty for complex systems.
Machine learning algorithms find frequent application in spatial prediction of biotic and abiotic environmental variables. However, the characteristics of spatial data, especially spatial autocorrelation, are widely ignored. We hypothesize that this is problematic and results in models that can reproduce training data …
Paper quantifies uncertainties in EIS spectra of SOFCs, proposing VB method for online monitoring.
problem Distortions in EIS spectra due to disturbances, drifts, and sensor noise.
method Proposes variational Bayes (VB) method for quantifying spectral uncertainty in EIS of SOFCs.
result VB method provides approximate distributions of ECM parameters with low computational load.