Develops a method to disaggregate aerosol optical depth into vertical extinction profiles.
problem Uncertainty in measuring aerosol vertical distributions due to limited observations.
method Bayesian nonparametric Gaussian process modeling using meteorological predictors.
result Model reconstructs realistic extinction profiles with well-calibrated uncertainty, outperforming idealized baselines.
Unified framework for generating meteorological time series from text.
problem Lack of large-scale, physically grounded multimodal datasets and architectures ignoring spectral-temporal structure.
method Introduce MeteoCap-3B dataset and MTransformer model.
result State-of-the-art generation quality, accurate cross-modal alignment, strong semantic controllability.
In this paper, an optimal inequality involving the delta curvature is exposed. An application of Riemannian submersions dealing meteorology is presented. Some characterizations about the vertical motion and the horizontal divergence are obtained.
Study predicts droughts using ANN models and hydro-meteorological data.
problem Accurate prediction of short and long-term droughts.
method Employed Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models to predict droughts using SPI at different time scales and various hydro-meteorological variables.
result Hydro-meteorological variables significantly improve SPI prediction at different time scales.
Proposes bivariate DeepKriging for efficient wind field prediction.
problem Challenges in predicting large-scale bivariate wind fields with high spatial variability and heterogeneity.
method Spatially dependent deep neural network (DNN) with embedding layer using spatial radial basis functions.
result Outperforms traditional cokriging predictors and reduces computation time.
Ensemble weather predictions require statistical post-processing of systematic errors to obtain reliable and accurate probabilistic forecasts. Traditionally, this is accomplished with distributional regression models in which the parameters of a predictive distribution are estimated from a training period. We propose a…
With broad applications in various public services like aviation management and urban disaster warning, numerical precipitation prediction plays a crucial role in weather forecast. However, constrained by the limitation of observation and conventional meteorological models, the numerical precipitation predictions are o…
RainfallBench benchmarks GNSS-based precipitation nowcasting models, addressing complex meteorological challenges.
problem Evaluation of precipitation nowcasting models in meteorology is insufficient due to focus on periodic variables.
method RainfallBench dataset and specialized evaluation protocols for multi-scale, multi-resolution, and extreme rainfall events.
result Bi-Focus Precipitation Forecaster (BFPF) enhances rainfall time series forecasting by incorporating domain-specific priors.
Rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones often causes major destruction to human civilization due to short response time. It is an important yet challenging task to accurately predict this kind of extreme weather event in advance. Traditionally, meteorologists tackle the task with human-driven feature extraction…
Evaporation is one of the main processes in the hydrological cycle, and it is one of the most critical factors in agricultural, hydrological, and meteorological studies. Due to the interactions of multiple climatic factors, the evaporation is a complex and nonlinear phenomenon; therefore, the data-based methods can be …
Proposes a virtual bidding strategy for electricity markets using stochastic control.
problem Optimizing electricity prices in day-ahead and real-time markets.
method Modeling price differences as Brownian motion with meteorological variables, transforming into portfolio management problem.
result Developed a strategy to manage electricity prices efficiently.
Crop yield forecasting is the methodology of predicting crop yields prior to harvest. The availability of accurate yield prediction frameworks have enormous implications from multiple standpoints, including impact on the crop commodity futures markets, formulation of agricultural policy, as well as crop insurance ratin…
Study analyzes climate impact on agricultural prices, offering insurance solutions.
problem Financial risk from climate-induced agricultural price volatility.
method Historical and future climate projections, EGARCH and SARIMAX models, Black-Scholes framework.
result Improved agricultural risk modeling and insurance mechanisms.
PeakWeather provides Swiss weather station data for machine learning.
problem Accurate weather forecasting for various activities and decision-making.
method High-quality dataset of surface weather observations from 8 years of Swiss stations.
result Dataset supports a wide range of spatiotemporal tasks.
Probabilistic NDVI forecasting from sparse satellite data.
problem Challenges in short-term NDVI forecasting due to sparse and irregular satellite data.
method Probabilistic forecasting framework using historical NDVI and meteorological observations, with temporal-distance weighted quantile loss and extreme-weather feature engineering.
result The proposed method outperforms baselines on pointwise and probabilistic evaluation metrics.
Dataset for rainfall modeling in central Europe from 1981-2011.
problem Improving rainfall streamflow modeling beyond simple catchments.
method Spatially resolved meteorological and ancillary data compilation.
result Dataset for neural network-driven hydrological modeling.
Study assesses risk of upward lightning at wind turbines using direct measurements and machine learning.
problem Risk underestimation of upward lightning at wind turbines due to limited detection by current standards.
method Direct UL measurements linked to meteorological reanalysis data using random forests.
result Risk maps based on case study events show high probabilities coincide with actual UL events.
Improved visibility forecasts using statistical post-processing.
problem Accurate and reliable predictions of visibility are crucial in aviation and transportation.
method Calibrated ensemble forecasts using locally, semi-locally, and regionally trained POLR and MLP classifiers.
result Post-processing improves forecast skill and POLR models outperform MLPs.
Study identifies key drivers and spatio-temporal trends of extreme Mediterranean wildfires.
problem Understanding and predicting the impacts of climate change on wildfire activity.
method Statistical deep-learning model combining meteorological, land cover, and orographic data.
result Vapour-pressure deficit significantly affects wildfire occurrence, while air temperature and drought affect spread.
Bayesian framework selects features and lags for time series forecasting.
problem Variable selection and lagged error term identification in time series models.
method Hierarchical Bayesian models with spike-and-slab priors, two-stage MCMC algorithm.
result Posterior selection consistency under mild conditions, improved predictive performance.
An extreme wind speed estimation method that considers wind hazard climate types is critical for design wind load calculation for building structures affected by mixed climates. However, it is very difficult to obtain wind hazard climate types from meteorological data records, because they restrict the application of e…
Accurate streamflow prediction largely relies on historical meteorological records and streamflow measurements. For many regions, however, such data are only scarcely available. Facing this problem, many studies simply trained their machine learning models on the region's available data, leaving possible repercussions …
Study improves distributional regression evaluation with CRPS, finding optimal rates of convergence.
problem Improving probabilistic forecasts in meteorology using distributional regression.
method Extends theoretical properties of CRPS evaluation to include covariates and finite sample sizes, analyzing convergence rates for different methods.
result Optimal minimax rate of convergence for distributional regression methods is achieved by k-nearest neighbor and kernel methods.
Enhanced visibility forecasts using CAMS data improve accuracy.
problem Improving the accuracy of visibility predictions in weather forecasts.
method Statistical post-processing with historical observations and CAMS forecasts.
result Post-processed forecasts with CAMS data are substantially superior to raw and climatological predictions.
Deep learning model predicts European weather parameters.
problem Ensemble weather prediction using deep learning.
method Conditional deep convolutional generative adversarial network (GAN) and Monte-Carlo dropout.
result Forecast skill for geopotential height and two-meter temperature is good, but precipitation is challenging.
The main aim of this work is to develop and implement an automatic anomaly detection algorithm for meteorological time-series. To achieve this goal we develop an approach to constructing an ensemble of anomaly detectors in combination with adaptive threshold selection based on artificially generated anomalies. We demon…
The increased usage of solar energy places additional importance on forecasts of solar radiation. Solar panel power production is primarily driven by the amount of solar radiation and it is therefore important to have accurate forecasts of solar radiation. Accurate forecasts that also give information on the forecast u…
Applying machine learning models to meteorological data brings many opportunities to the Geosciences field, such as predicting future weather conditions more accurately. In recent years, modeling meteorological data with deep neural networks has become a relevant area of investigation. These works apply either recurren…
Although a key driver of Earth's climate system, global land-atmosphere energy fluxes are poorly constrained. Here we use machine learning to merge energy flux measurements from FLUXNET eddy covariance towers with remote sensing and meteorological data to estimate net radiation, latent and sensible heat and their uncer…
Water managers in the western United States (U.S.) rely on longterm forecasts of temperature and precipitation to prepare for droughts and other wet weather extremes. To improve the accuracy of these longterm forecasts, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) launch…
Study compares machine learning methods for improving wind gust forecasts.
problem Improving accuracy of wind gust forecasts from ensemble models.
method Comprehensive comparison of 8 statistical and machine learning methods.
result Locally adaptive neural networks significantly outperform other methods.
Machine learning improves cloud cover forecasting.
problem Improving accuracy of total cloud cover predictions.
method Investigated multilayer perceptron, gradient boosting machines, random forest, logistic regression models.
result RF models provide the smallest increase in predictive performance, while MLP, POLR, and GBM approaches perform best.
Deep learning improves probabilistic river discharge forecasting for hydroelectric power.
problem Uncertain river discharges due to climate variability.
method Modified recurrent neural network architecture conditioned on global circulation model projections.
result Generates parameterized probability distributions for realistic long-term discharge scenarios.
We propose a betting strategy based on Bayesian logistic regression modeling for the probability forecasting game in the framework of game-theoretic probability by Shafer and Vovk (2001). We prove some results concerning the strong law of large numbers in the probability forecasting game with side information based on …
The problem of forecasting conditional probabilities of the next event given the past is considered in a general probabilistic setting. Given an arbitrary (large, uncountable) set C of predictors, we would like to construct a single predictor that performs asymptotically as well as the best predictor in C, on any data.…
New bounds explain deterministic non-smooth deep nets without large Lipschitz constants.
problem Challenges in explaining generalization of deterministic non-smooth deep nets.
method De-randomized PAC-Bayes margin bounds for deterministic non-convex and non-smooth predictors.
result New bounds avoid large Lipschitz constants, providing generalization guarantees.
This paper proposes a method to reduce complexity in GLMs with categorical predictors.
problem Wasteful, hard-to-interpret, and prone to overfitting of traditional one-hot encoding for high-cardinality categorical predictors.
method Clustering categories of categorical predictors through a numerical method that preserves or improves accuracy while reducing the number of coefficients.
result Clustering categories of categorical predictors reduces complexity substantially without harming accuracy.
Paper benchmarks and customizes energy forecasting methods.
problem Energy forecasting challenges and differences from traditional time series.
method Collected large-scale load datasets and renewable energy datasets. Developed feature engineering and customized loss functions.
result Comprehensive evaluation of 21 forecasting methods in energy datasets.
We present a comparative study of different probabilistic forecasting techniques on the task of predicting the electrical load of secondary substations and cabinets located in a low voltage distribution grid, as well as their aggregated power profile. The methods are evaluated using standard KPIs for deterministic and …
Deep learning improves weather modeling for electricity load forecasting.
problem Accurate load and renewable energy forecasting requires complex spatio-temporal weather modeling.
method Automated spatio-temporal feature extraction using deep neural networks.
result Deep learning outperforms traditional methods in French national load forecasting.
The article compares predictor importance in classification problems with categorical outcomes.
problem Comparing predictor importance in classification problems with categorical response variables.
method The approach is based on the categorical Gini correlation (CGC) and tests differences in CGCs across predictor groups.
result The proposed methodology accommodates predictors of arbitrary and unequal dimensions and allows for dependence between predictor groups.
Paper proposes a sparse synthetic control method to select important predictors.
problem Choosing and weighting predictors affects synthetic control estimator performance.
method Sparse synthetic control procedure that penalizes predictors, derived in a linear factor model.
result Sparse synthetic control achieves lower bias and better post-treatment performance.
This paper presents Sparse Partitioning, a Bayesian method for identifying predictors that either individually or in combination with others affect a response variable. The method is designed for regression problems involving binary or tertiary predictors and allows the number of predictors to exceed the size of the sa…
WeakNAS uses a set of weaker predictors to find top architectures with fewer samples.
problem Finding the best neural architecture with heavy computation costs.
method Proposes a paradigm shift from fitting the whole architecture space to progressively fitting a search path through a set of weaker predictors.
result WeakNAS produces coarse-to-fine iteration to gradually refine the ranking of sampling space, requiring fewer samples to find top-performance architectures.
Proposes a method to create fair, robust predictors that remain consistent across different scenarios.
problem Creating fair and robust machine learning models that behave consistently across different scenarios.
method Graphical criteria and a model-agnostic framework called CIP based on HSCIC.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of CIP in enforcing counterfactual invariance across various datasets.
This paper continues study, both theoretical and empirical, of the method of Venn prediction, concentrating on binary prediction problems. Venn predictors produce probability-type predictions for the labels of test objects which are guaranteed to be well calibrated under the standard assumption that the observations ar…
Derives bounds for deterministic predictors using smooth loss functions.
problem Generalizing probabilistic predictors to deterministic ones.
method Exploits smoothness properties of loss and predictor classes, controlling the Jensen gap class through Rademacher complexity.
result Derives bounds for deterministic predictors involving flatness quantities from Jacobians and Hessians.
Study shows competition feedback can make ML predictors biased towards specific user groups.
problem How competition affects machine learning predictors and user prediction quality.
method Flexible model of competing ML predictors, empirical and mathematical analysis.
result Competition causes predictors to specialize for specific sub-populations at the cost of general performance.