A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Neural Diffusion Intensity Models simplify Cox processes inference.
We introduce a Cox-type model for relative intensities of orders flows in a limit order book. The model assumes that all intensities share a common baseline intensity, which may for example represent the global market activity. Parameters can be estimated by quasi likelihood maximization, without any interference from …
Generative model combines shape and intensity priors for left atrium segmentation.
We propose a parametric model for the simulation of limit order books. We assume that limit orders, market orders and cancellations are submitted according to point processes with state-dependent intensities. We propose new functional forms for these intensities, as well as new models for the placement of limit orders …
In this paper we consider a utility maximization problem with defaultable stocks and looping contagion risk. We assume that the default intensity of one company depends on the stock prices of itself and other companies, and the default of the company induces immediate drops in the stock prices of the surviving companie…
Two JSMA variants improve speed and accuracy for image classification attacks.
In a continuous-time model with multiple assets described by càdlàg processes, this paper characterizes superhedging prices, absence of arbitrage, and utility maximizing strategies, under general frictions that make execution prices arbitrarily unfavorable for high trading intensity. Such frictions induce a duality bet…
Study adaptive sensing of Cox processes using posterior sampling and positive bases.
We consider a framework for solving optimal liquidation problems in limit order books. In particular, order arrivals are modeled as a point process whose intensity depends on the liquidation price. We set up a stochastic control problem in which the goal is to maximize the expected revenue from liquidating the entire p…
Model detects market anomalies using a Hawkes process with hidden Markov chain.
Study evaluates predictive models across multiple hospitals.
The latent block model (LBM) is a flexible probabilistic tool to describe interactions between node sets in bipartite networks, but it does not account for interactions of time varying intensity between nodes in unknown classes. In this paper we propose a non stationary temporal extension of the LBM that clusters simul…
Optimizes bookmaking strategies for market prices.
We develop a finite horizon continuous time market model, where risk averse investors maximize utility from terminal wealth by dynamically investing in a risk-free money market account, a stock written on a default-free dividend process, and a defaultable bond, whose prices are determined via equilibrium. We analyze fi…
Market maker optimizes quotes under hidden Markov chain uncertainty.
Study optimal dividend strategies for insurers with natural catastrophe claims.
We develop a model in which interactions between nodes of a dynamic network are counted by non homogeneous Poisson processes. In a block modelling perspective, nodes belong to hidden clusters (whose number is unknown) and the intensity functions of the counting processes only depend on the clusters of nodes. In order t…
We consider an investor faced with the utility maximization problem in which the risky asset price process has pure-jump dynamics affected by an unobservable continuous-time finite-state Markov chain, the intensity of which can also be controlled by actions of the investor. Using the classical filtering theory, we redu…
We model the price of a stock via a Langévin equation with multi-dimensional fluctuations coupled in the price and in time. We generalize previous models in that we assume that the fluctuations conditioned on the time step are compound Poisson processes with operator stable jump intensities. We derive exact relations f…
The stochastic block model (SBM) is a flexible probabilistic tool that can be used to model interactions between clusters of nodes in a network. However, it does not account for interactions of time varying intensity between clusters. The extension of the SBM developed in this paper addresses this shortcoming through a…
Maximal Rate of Stepwise Uncertainty Reduction selects simulations to reduce uncertainty efficiently.
We investigate activities that have different periods of duration. We define the profit intensity as a measure of this economic category. The profit intensity in a repeated trading has a unique property of attaining its maximum at a fixed point regardless of the shape of demand curves for a wide class of probability di…
A new method uses BSDEs to solve optimal reinsurance under partial information.
New upper bound for Cheeger constant of hyperbolic surfaces.
Optimal reinsurance strategy analyzed for dynamic risk model with self- and externally-excited jumps.
Examines GARCH intensity model for risk-neutral option pricing.
Bayesian approach for inhomogeneous Poisson process intensity estimation.
Method uses deep learning to estimate traffic intensity.
A new kernel method improves Poisson process intensity estimation.
Study identifies two borrowing patterns in UK payday loan users.
PARADE generates provably robust adversarial examples for deep networks.
Model predicts bid and ask price dynamics with spread-dependent intensities.
Study examines stylized facts in DEX markets vs. traditional exchanges.
This paper discusses properties of a Doubly Stochastic Poisson Process (DSPP) where the intensity process belongs to a class of affine diffusions. For any intensity process from this class we derive an analytical expression for probability distribution functions of the corresponding DSPP. A specification of our results…
Intensity augmentation improves breast MRI segmentation accuracy.
We provide analytical pricing formula of corporate defaultable bond with both expected and unexpected default in the case with stochastic default intensity. In the case with constant short rate and exogenous default recovery using PDE method, we gave some pricing formula of the defaultable bond under the conditions tha…
New models directly model inter-event times without intensity functions.
We propose a novel method for automatic pain intensity estimation from facial images based on the framework of kernel Conditional Ordinal Random Fields (KCORF). We extend this framework to account for heteroscedasticity on the output labels(i.e., pain intensity scores) and introduce a novel dynamic features, dynamic ra…
The paper analyzes multivariate Hawkes processes and their induced population processes.
New method models intensity functions on spheres using normalizing flows.
Neural networks learn distance-based representations, not just intensity.
Proposes a flexible neural network model for temporal point processes.
New findings allow infinite mean intensity Hawkes processes to be stable.
The present paper introduces a jump-diffusion extension of the classical diffusion default intensity model by means of subordination in the sense of Bochner. We start from the bi-variate process of a diffusion state variable driving default intensity and a default indicator process and time change it wi…
We propose a microstructural modeling framework for studying optimal market making policies in a FIFO (first in first out) limit order book (LOB). In this context, the limit orders, market orders, and cancel orders arrivals in the LOB are modeled as Cox point processes with intensities that only depend on the state of …
Developing a semi-analytical approximation for general default intensity models
New method models MTPP without predefined intensity functions.
We propose an extension to Hawkes processes by treating the levels of self-excitation as a stochastic differential equation. Our new point process allows better approximation in application domains where events and intensities accelerate each other with correlated levels of contagion. We generalize a recent algorithm f…