A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Study improves maize yield prediction using BNs with mixed-effects models.
Pre-season prediction of crop production outcomes such as grain yields and N losses can provide insights to stakeholders when making decisions. Simulation models can assist in scenario planning, but their use is limited because of data requirements and long run times. Thus, there is a need for more computationally expe…
Study predicts doubling of U.S. maize insurance claims due to climate change.
Heterosis is the improved or increased function of any biological quality in a hybrid offspring. We have studied yet the largest maize SNP dataset for traits prediction. We develop linear and non-linear models which consider relationships between different hybrids as well as other effect. Specially designed model prove…
Crop yield is a highly complex trait determined by multiple factors such as genotype, environment, and their interactions. Accurate yield prediction requires fundamental understanding of the functional relationship between yield and these interactive factors, and to reveal such relationship requires both comprehensive …
The effects of weather on agriculture in recent years have become a major global concern. Hence, the need for an effective weather risk management tool (i.e., weather derivatives) that can hedge crop yields against weather uncertainties. However, most smallholder farmers and agricultural stakeholders are unwilling to p…
Study finds intrinsic multifractality in maize and barley spot markets, but not in wheat and rice.
High and volatile global food prices have led to food riots and played a critical role in triggering the Arab Spring revolutions in recent years. The severe drought in the US in the summer of 2012 led to a new increase in food prices. Through the fall, they remained at a threshold above which the riots and revolutions …
Study finds multifractal cross-correlations between agricultural markets and external uncertainties.
Unified framework for SGMoE resolves estimation and selection issues.
New algorithm improves on EM for streaming data, outperforming existing methods.
Analyzing available FAO data from 176 countries over 21 years, we observe an increase of complexity in the international trade of maize, rice, soy, and wheat. A larger number of countries play a role as producers or intermediaries, either for trade or food processing. In consequence, we find that the trade networks bec…
A hybrid method combines GA and EN for feature selection in high-dimensional datasets.
Study proposes hybrid machine learning models for crop yield prediction.
Machine learning fails to improve recession prediction with yield spread.
Corn yield prediction is beneficial as it provides valuable information about production and prices prior the harvest. Publicly available high-quality corn yield prediction can help address emergent information asymmetry problems and in doing so improve price efficiency in futures markets. This paper is the first to em…
Bayesian method tackles variable selection in high-dimensional data.
Study improves paddy rice yield predictions in Peru using sparse regression and climatic variables.
Crop yield prediction is extremely challenging due to its dependence on multiple factors such as crop genotype, environmental factors, management practices, and their interactions. This paper presents a deep learning framework using convolutional neural networks (CNN) and recurrent neural networks (RNN) for crop yield …
Study predicts bond yields using machine learning and ultimate forward rates.
Deep learning predicts crop yield integrating genotype and weather data.
Effective plant growth and yield prediction is an essential task for greenhouse growers and for agriculture in general. Developing models which can effectively model growth and yield can help growers improve the environmental control for better production, match supply and market demand and lower costs. Recent developm…
Eradicating hunger and malnutrition is a key development goal of the 21st century. We address the problem of optimally identifying seed varieties to reliably increase crop yield within a risk-sensitive decision-making framework. Specifically, we introduce a novel hierarchical machine learning mechanism for predicting c…
A reliable and accurate forecasting model for crop yields is of crucial importance for efficient decision-making process in the agricultural sector. However, due to weather extremes and uncertainties, most forecasting models for crop yield are not reliable and accurate. For measuring the uncertainty and obtaining furth…
A neural collaborative filtering method predicts corn hybrid yield performance.
Paper presents a machine learning framework for corn yield forecasting.
Crop yield forecasting is the methodology of predicting crop yields prior to harvest. The availability of accurate yield prediction frameworks have enormous implications from multiple standpoints, including impact on the crop commodity futures markets, formulation of agricultural policy, as well as crop insurance ratin…
We present an arbitrage-free non-parametric yield curve prediction model which takes the full (discretized) yield curve as state variable. We believe that absence of arbitrage is an important model feature in case of highly correlated data, as it is the case for interest rates. Furthermore, the model structure allows t…
Understanding and accurately predicting within-field spatial variability of crop yield play a key role in site-specific management of crop inputs such as irrigation water and fertilizer for optimized crop production. However, such a task is challenged by the complex interaction between crop growth and environmental and…
Paper uses conformal prediction for solar power forecasting in electricity markets.
This work uses PAC-Bayes for structured prediction with ILE, yielding insights and algorithms.
Boosted decision trees typically yield good accuracy, precision, and ROC area. However, because the outputs from boosting are not well calibrated posterior probabilities, boosting yields poor squared error and cross-entropy. We empirically demonstrate why AdaBoost predicts distorted probabilities and examine three cali…
Russia-Ukraine conflict impacts global agricultural futures and spot markets' extreme risks.
Deep learning framework for bond and yield curve forecasting with no-arbitrage constraints.
Classifiers used in the wild, in particular for safety-critical systems, should not only have good generalization properties but also should know when they don't know, in particular make low confidence predictions far away from the training data. We show that ReLU type neural networks which yield a piecewise linear cla…
StockGPT predicts stock returns using AI, outperforming traditional strategies.
New privacy-preserving method for conformal prediction without splitting data.
Study benchmarks classical models over quantum in DeFi yield prediction.
In structured output prediction tasks, labeling ground-truth training output is often expensive. However, for many tasks, even when the true output is unknown, we can evaluate predictions using a scalar reward function, which may be easily assembled from human knowledge or non-differentiable pipelines. But searching th…
Developed deep learning models to predict crop yields across diverse environments.
A system is presented that segments, clusters and predicts musical audio in an unsupervised manner, adjusting the number of (timbre) clusters instantaneously to the audio input. A sequence learning algorithm adapts its structure to a dynamically changing clustering tree. The flow of the system is as follows: 1) segment…
The combination of inducing point methods with stochastic variational inference has enabled approximate Gaussian Process (GP) inference on large datasets. Unfortunately, the resulting predictive distributions often exhibit substantially underestimated uncertainties. Notably, in the regression case the predictive varian…
We applied Deep Q-Network with a Convolutional Neural Network function approximator, which takes stock chart images as input, for making global stock market predictions. Our model not only yields profit in the stock market of the country where it was trained but generally yields profit in global stock markets. We train…
This paper uses CausalGANs and RL with LLM to predict bond yields.
Extended Predictable Feature Analysis (PFAx) [Richthofer and Wiskott, 2017] is an extension of PFA [Richthofer and Wiskott, 2015] that allows generating a goal-directed control signal of an agent whose dynamics has previously been learned during a training phase in an unsupervised manner. PFAx hardly requires assumptio…
QLA improves Bayesian uncertainty estimation for DNNs without increasing computational cost.
Machine learning models predict brain age with systematic bias, corrected in this study.
A new method calibrates Gaussian processes for more accurate uncertainty estimates.