A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Study detects signals in spiked Wigner models using log likelihood ratio.
In this work, a deep learning-based method for log-likelihood ratio (LLR) lossy compression and quantization is proposed, with emphasis on a single-input single-output uncorrelated fading communication setting. A deep autoencoder network is trained to compress, quantize and reconstruct the bit log-likelihood ratios cor…
New method for robust distribution alignment using log-likelihood ratio and normalizing flows.
In deep neural network, the cross-entropy loss function is commonly used for classification. Minimizing cross-entropy is equivalent to maximizing likelihood under assumptions of uniform feature and class distributions. It belongs to generative training criteria which does not directly discriminate correct class from co…
SPRT-TANDEM improves sequential classification accuracy with fewer samples.
In this note, we study the relationship between the variational gap and the variance of the (log) likelihood ratio. We show that the gap can be upper bounded by some form of dispersion measure of the likelihood ratio, which suggests the bias of variational inference can be reduced by making the distribution of the like…
EQ-Net combines LLR estimation and quantization using deep learning.
When the in-sample Sharpe ratio is obtained by optimizing over a k-dimensional parameter space, it is a biased estimator for what can be expected on unseen data (out-of-sample). We derive (1) an unbiased estimator adjusting for both sources of bias: noise fit and estimation error. We then show (2) how to use the adjust…
wd1 improves reasoning in dLLMs by optimizing policies without policy ratios.
A new method detects changes in multivariate data using random forests.
Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) can achieve state-of-the-art sample quality in generative modelling tasks but suffer from the mode collapse problem. Variational Autoencoders (VAE) on the other hand explicitly maximize a reconstruction-based data log-likelihood forcing it to cover all modes, but suffer from poore…
We consider the problem of aligning a pair of databases with jointly Gaussian features. We consider two algorithms, complete database alignment via MAP estimation among all possible database alignments, and partial alignment via a thresholding approach of log likelihood ratios. We derive conditions on mutual informatio…
The paper optimizes designs for distinguishing between Gaussian process models.
Single-microphone, speaker-independent speech separation is normally performed through two steps: (i) separating the specific speech sources, and (ii) determining the best output-label assignment to find the separation error. The second step is the main obstacle in training neural networks for speech separation. Recent…
Sequential hypothesis testing is a desirable decision making strategy in any time sensitive scenario. Compared with fixed sample-size testing, sequential testing is capable of achieving identical probability of error requirements using less samples in average. For a binary detection problem, it is well known that for k…
Edgeworth Accountant calculates privacy loss under differential privacy compositions efficiently.
FOOD detects out-of-distribution samples quickly without needing OOD data.
Test log-likelihood comparisons can be misleading.
Corrects pseudo log-likelihood method issues in various applications.
Obtaining labels can be costly and time-consuming. Active learning allows a learning algorithm to intelligently query samples to be labeled for efficient learning. Fisher information ratio (FIR) has been used as an objective for selecting queries in active learning. However, little is known about the theory behind the …
A new VIS approach improves log-likelihood estimation in latent variable models.
New method optimizes clustering with better log-likelihood landscape.
New method calculates DMN log-likelihood faster.
Extends dimension reduction to data-driven settings without gradients.
This paper develops embeddings that preserve likelihood-based statistical inference.
We introduce a dynamic credit portfolio framework where optimal investment strategies are robust against misspecifications of the reference credit model. The risk-averse investor models his fear of credit risk misspecification by considering a set of plausible alternatives whose expected log likelihood ratios are penal…
Identifying anomalous patterns in real-world data is essential for understanding where, when, and how systems deviate from their expected dynamics. Yet methods that separately consider the anomalousness of each individual data point have low detection power for subtle, emerging irregularities. Additionally, recent dete…
In this work, a deep learning-based quantization scheme for log-likelihood ratio (L-value) storage is introduced. We analyze the dependency between the average magnitude of different L-values from the same quadrature amplitude modulation (QAM) symbol and show they follow a consistent ordering. Based on this we design a…
In recent work on both generative and discriminative score to log-likelihood-ratio calibration, it was shown that linear transforms give good accuracy only for a limited range of operating points. Moreover, these methods required tailoring of the calibration training objective functions in order to target the desired r…
The Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBM) can be used either as classifiers or as generative models. The quality of the generative RBM is measured through the average log-likelihood on test data. Due to the high computational complexity of evaluating the partition function, exact calculation of test log-likelihood is ver…
Survival regression method improves log-likelihood scores.
New methods improve anomaly detection in deep networks by leveraging hierarchical likelihoods and multi-scale features.
This work develops sampling methods for differential privacy using SHK geometry.
New algorithm tracks COVID-19 outbreak phases.
Proposes a robust similarity measure for sparse time series data.
There has been much recent interest in application of the pool-adjacent-violators (PAV) algorithm for the purpose of calibrating the probabilistic outputs of automatic pattern recognition and machine learning algorithms. Special cost functions, known as proper scoring rules form natural objective functions to judge the…
We develop, discuss, and compare several inference techniques to constrain theory parameters in collider experiments. By harnessing the latent-space structure of particle physics processes, we extract extra information from the simulator. This augmented data can be used to train neural networks that precisely estimate …
The fate of scientific hypotheses often relies on the ability of a computational model to explain the data, quantified in modern statistical approaches by the likelihood function. The log-likelihood is the key element for parameter estimation and model evaluation. However, the log-likelihood of complex models in fields…
SRFE clarifies KL divergences without unifying learning frameworks.
The paper presents a method for detecting jump sizes in crude oil prices.
This paper introduces a method to estimate log-likelihood in VAE models.
A new Metropolis-Hastings algorithm uses Gaussian Processes to speed up sampling from complex models.
Markov random fields (MRFs) are difficult to evaluate as generative models because computing the test log-probabilities requires the intractable partition function. Annealed importance sampling (AIS) is widely used to estimate MRF partition functions, and often yields quite accurate results. However, AIS is prone to ov…
We explain SSL objectives as log-likelihoods in a data curation model.
Maximum likelihood training improves the performance of score-based diffusion models.
This work evaluates deep generative models using RD curves, providing a more comprehensive quality assessment.
Logistic regression is used thousands of times a day to fit data, predict future outcomes, and assess the statistical significance of explanatory variables. When used for the purpose of statistical inference, logistic models produce p-values for the regression coefficients by using an approximation to the distribution …
Enhances VAEs for sharper image synthesis.