The scope of financial systemic risk research encompasses a wide range of interbank channels and effects, including asset correlation shocks, default contagion, illiquidity contagion, and asset fire sales. This paper introduces a financial network model that combines the default and liquidity stress mechanisms into a "…
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48 results for “liquidation cascades”
Crypto crashes show no consistent early warning signal, suggesting they are abrupt shocks rather than critical transitions.
problem Identifying early warning signals for crypto crashes.
method Analysis of seven major BTC liquidation cascades using minute-level price and leverage/order-flow data.
result No variable is event-invariant, and the critical-slowing-down signature is present in only five out of seven events.
Slippage-at-Risk (SaR): A Forward-Looking Liquidity Risk Framework for Perpetual Futures Exchangesq-fin.RM
A new framework assesses liquidity risk in perpetual futures exchanges.
problem Measuring and predicting liquidation execution risk in perpetual futures markets.
method Slippage-at-Risk (SaR) framework, comprising three metrics: cross-sectional slippage quantile, expected slippage, and aggregate dollar-denominated tail slippage.
result SaR provides a forward-looking assessment of liquidation execution risk, predictive of systemic stress.
This paper explores leverage staking with stETH, revealing high returns but also significant risks.
problem Leverage staking introduces risks through intensified selling pressure and cascading liquidations.
method Formal framework for leverage staking, stress tests under extreme conditions of stETH devaluation.
result Leverage staking amplifies risks, leading to intensified selling pressure and price declines.
We study how network structure affects the dynamics of collateral in presence of rehypothecation. We build a simple model wherein banks interact via chains of repo contracts and use their proprietary collateral or re-use the collateral obtained by other banks via reverse repos. In this framework, we show that total col…
On many social networking web sites such as Facebook and Twitter, resharing or reposting functionality allows users to share others' content with their own friends or followers. As content is reshared from user to user, large cascades of reshares can form. While a growing body of research has focused on analyzing and c…
This study maps systemic risks in TradFi and DeFi, highlighting their interdependence.
problem Systemic risks in traditional and decentralized finance.
method Conceptual model and comparative analysis of TradFi and DeFi.
result Systemic risks in DeFi can affect TradFi and vice versa, creating a crosstagion effect.
Method predicts diffusion reach probabilities using node embeddings.
problem Estimating diffusion reach probabilities with limited cascades and network information.
method Representation learning on node embeddings for cascade prediction.
result Proposed method outperforms using available cascade data.
This paper optimizes power grid protection settings to maximize network degradation due to cascading attacks.
problem Cascading attacks on power grids and their undetected nature.
method Constrained Bayesian Optimization applied to transmission line protection settings.
result Even limited misconfiguration of protection settings can cause severe cascading attacks.
Model infers diffusion networks from heterogeneous cascade data.
problem Understanding and predicting diffusion processes in interconnected populations.
method Double mixture directed graph model with layer-specific constraints.
result Convex formulation allows for statistical and computational guarantees.
New insights into cascade feedback linearization of control systems.
problem Obtaining a cascade feedback linearization for invariant control systems.
method Introducing truncated versions of operators from the calculus of variations to prove new theorems.
result Established new geometry and foundational theorems for future work.
The paper improves theoretical guarantees for Thompson Sampling in cascading bandits.
problem Optimizing online recommender systems with cascading bandits.
method Develops and analyzes new Thompson Sampling algorithms for cascading bandits.
result Establishes the first theoretical guarantees on Thompson Sampling for cascading bandits.
Modeling cascading behavior in complex systems using CTBNs.
problem Understanding which states trigger cascading events in complex systems.
method Continuous-time Bayesian networks (CTBNs) for modeling and identifying likely sentry states.
result Identification of likely sentry states that may lead to cascading behavior.
Complex contagion model explains financial fire sales through continuous asset prices.
problem Modeling financial fire sales with a continuum of asset prices.
method Developed a threshold model of continuous-state cascades using real values for asset prices.
result Discretization approach accurately replicates the distribution of defaulted banks and asset prices.
Explicit size distributions of failure cascades redefine systemic risk on finite networksphysics.soc-ph
How big is the risk that a few initial failures of nodes in a network amplify to large cascades that span a substantial share of all nodes? Predicting the final cascade size is critical to ensure the functioning of a system as a whole. Yet, this task is hampered by uncertain or changing parameters and missing informati…
Study on information cascade fragility under mismatched revealing probabilities.
problem Analyzing the fragility of information cascades in decision-making processes with imperfect knowledge of revealing probabilities.
method Examined sequential decision-making models with players having private information and imitating previous decisions. Studied the effect of a mismatch between players' beliefs and actual revealing probabilities.
result Derived closed-form expressions for optimal learning rates and identified phase transitions in the behavior of asymptotic learning rates.
A search engine usually outputs a list of web pages. The user examines this list, from the first web page to the last, and chooses the first attractive page. This model of user behavior is known as the cascade model. In this paper, we propose cascading bandits, a learning variant of the cascade model where the obje…
Paper uses RL to mitigate cascading failures in power systems.
problem Mitigating multi-stage cascading failures in power grids.
method Reinforcement Learning applied to DC-OPF for power flow optimization.
result Reduced system collapse rates through RL-based optimization.
Structured prediction tasks pose a fundamental trade-off between the need for model complexity to increase predictive power and the limited computational resources for inference in the exponentially-sized output spaces such models require. We formulate and develop the Structured Prediction Cascade architecture: a seque…
Bayesian optimization tackles expensive cascade processes.
problem Optimizing multistage decision-making processes with expensive costs.
method Formulated as Bayesian optimization framework with two types of acquisition functions.
result Demonstrated effectiveness through numerical experiments and a solar cell simulator application.
Model shows financial turbulence similar to turbulence, with wealth cascading from large to small entities.
problem Understanding wealth distribution and dynamics in financial systems.
method Constructed a multiscale model for hierarchical financial structures.
result Found wealth distribution exhibits power law at large scales and Maxwellian at small scales.
Do Cascades Recur?cs.SI
Cascades of information-sharing are a primary mechanism by which content reaches its audience on social media, and an active line of research has studied how such cascades, which form as content is reshared from person to person, develop and subside. In this paper, we perform a large-scale analysis of cascades on Faceb…
Modeling social network activity through user and topic interaction.
problem Understanding complex dynamics of opinion formation in social networks.
method Mixture of Interacting Cascades (MIC) model of marked multidimensional Hawkes processes.
result MIC achieves superior performance in modeling information cascade spread.
The paper addresses the -tangle enumeration problem. We introduce a notion of cascade diagram for -tangle projections. An effective enumeration algorithm for projections is proposed based on cascade representation. Tangles projections with up to 12 crossings are tabulated. We provide also pictures of alternating …
To Trade Or Not To Trade: Cascading Waterfall Round Robin Rebalancing Mechanism for Cryptocurrenciesq-fin.PM
Algorithm recommends trades based on crypto asset prices and market conditions.
problem Optimizing trades in volatile crypto markets to minimize gas fees and slippage.
method Cascading Waterfall Round Robin Mechanism considering gas fees and slippage.
result Algorithmic approach reduces market noise and ensures sound trade execution.
Information spreads across social and technological networks, but often the network structures are hidden from us and we only observe the traces left by the diffusion processes, called cascades. Can we recover the hidden network structures from these observed cascades? What kind of cascades and how many cascades do we …
We consider the problem of finding the graph on which an epidemic cascade spreads, given only the times when each node gets infected. While this is a problem of importance in several contexts -- offline and online social networks, e-commerce, epidemiology, vulnerabilities in infrastructure networks -- there has been ve…
DICE estimates data influence cascade in decentralized learning networks.
problem Lack of fair incentives discourages participation in decentralized learning.
method Designs DICE to estimate influence cascade in decentralized networks.
result Influence cascade is influenced by data, topology, and loss landscape curvature.
Unified approach for influence maximization using diffusion cascade representations.
problem Influence maximization on networks with diffusion cascades.
method Multi-task neural network learning influencer and susceptible vectors; greedy algorithm for influence maximization.
result IMINFECTOR outperforms other methods in efficiency and seed set quality.
Improves information cascade models using contrastive training and DSTs.
problem Improving models of information cascades using limited labeled data.
method Proposes a contrastive training procedure for models of information cascades as directed spanning trees (DSTs).
result Unsupervised training with additional content features achieves significantly better results, reaching half the accuracy of a fully supervised model.
In this paper, we present a new approach to learning cascaded classifiers for use in computing environments that involve networks of heterogeneous and resource-constrained, low-power embedded compute and sensing nodes. We present a generalization of the classical linear detection cascade to the case of tree-structured …
Paper presents a probabilistic model to improve LLM cascade performance.
problem Complexity of LLM cascades and their interaction error rates.
method Probabilistic model for joint performance distribution of LLMs.
result Improves area under the error-cost curve by 4.3% on average for cascades with k≥3 models.
We introduce a probabilistic framework that represents stylized banking networks with the aim of predicting the size of contagion events. Most previous work on random financial networks assumes independent connections between banks, whereas our framework explicitly allows for (dis)assortative edge probabilities (e.g., …
Model financial default cascades on sparse graphs via hitting times.
problem Capturing systemic risk in large, sparsely-connected financial networks.
method Dynamic particle systems with hitting times and convergence theory.
result Characterization of default time distribution in tree-like networks.
In this paper, we present a general, multistage framework for graphical model approximation using a cascade of models such as trees. In particular, we look at the problem of covariance matrix approximation for Gaussian distributions as linear transformations of tree models. This is a new way to decompose the covariance…
Cascading flows improve variational inference in structured programs.
problem Challenges in variational inference for complex probabilistic programs.
method Integrates normalizing flows and ASVI to create cascading flows, which embed the forward-pass of probabilistic programs.
result Cascading flows outperform normalizing flows and ASVI in structured inference problems.
I show the equivalence between a model of financial contagion and the threshold model of global cascades proposed by Watts (2002). The model financial network comprises banks that hold risky external assets as well as interbank assets. It is shown that a simple threshold model can replicate the size and the frequency o…
In agreement with the recent research findings in the econophysics, we propose that the nonlinear dynamic chaos can be generated by the turbulent capital flows in both the quantitative easing transmission channels and the transaction networks channels, when there are the laminar turbulent capital flows transitions in t…
Study online ranking in non-stationary environments with abrupt preference changes.
problem Online learning to rank in a non-stationary cascade model where user preferences change abruptly.
method Cascading non-stationary bandits, proposing CascadeDUCB and CascadeSWUCB algorithms.
result Upper and lower bounds on regret for cascading non-stationary bandits algorithms.
Algorithm estimates clock in network cascades to improve performance.
problem Temporal distortion in cascade observation leads to performance degradation.
method Formulated clock estimation problem, developed FastClock algorithm.
result FastClock algorithm outperforms state-of-the-art in terms of accuracy and speed.
Paper develops a neural model to assess cascading extreme events.
problem Risk assessment of domino effects like earthquakes and tsunamis.
method Develops a Kolmogorov-Arnold neural network (KANE) framework.
result Estimates the probability of one extreme event triggering another.
A new algorithm balances exploration and exploitation in online decision-making.
problem Balancing exploration and exploitation in online decision-making.
method Proposed -UCB algorithm incorporating conservative mechanism.
result Proved n-step upper regret bound for two situations.
A probabilistic framework is introduced that represents stylized banking networks and aims to predict the size of contagion events. In contrast to previous work on random financial networks, which assumes independent connections between banks, the possibility of disassortative edge probabilities (an above average tende…
In the Network Inference problem, one seeks to recover the edges of an unknown graph from the observations of cascades propagating over this graph. In this paper, we approach this problem from the sparse recovery perspective. We introduce a general model of cascades, including the voter model and the independent cascad…
We introduce a new sequential Monte Carlo algorithm we call the particle cascade. The particle cascade is an asynchronous, anytime alternative to traditional particle filtering algorithms. It uses no barrier synchronizations which leads to improved particle throughput and memory efficiency. It is an anytime algorithm i…
This work proposes an efficient autoregressive model for text generation.
problem The challenge of generating high-quality text with autoregressive models.
method Introduces a cascaded decoding approach using Markov transformers to achieve sub-linear parallel time generation.
result Shows competitive accuracy/speed tradeoff compared to existing methods on five machine translation datasets.
Adaptive cascade submodular maximization tackles sequential selection under uncertainty.
problem Maximizing expected utility from a set of items with unknown states and continuation probabilities.
method Proposed adaptive cascade submodular functions and a 0.12 approximation algorithm.
result Identified a class of functions (adaptive cascade submodular) that many practical applications satisfy.
We analyze cascades of defaults in an interbank loan market. The novel feature of this study is that the network structure and the size distribution of banks are derived from empirical data. We find that the ability of a defaulted institution to start a cascade depends on an interplay of shock size and connectivity. Fu…