A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
ALFI improves likelihood-free inference for black-box generators.
Deep Gaussian Processes improve likelihood-free inference for complex distributions.
This study benchmarks likelihood-free inference methods for models with heavy-tailed or discrete data.
Proposes LFGP for likelihood-free Gaussian process regression.
Engine for Likelihood-Free Inference (ELFI) is a Python software library for performing likelihood-free inference (LFI). ELFI provides a convenient syntax for arranging components in LFI, such as priors, simulators, summaries or distances, to a network called ELFI graph. The components can be implemented in a wide vari…
EnVAE uses energy score for likelihood-free VAEs, improving image reconstructions.
Optimal algorithm selects biological models without prior info.
Likelihood-free (a.k.a. simulation-based) inference problems are inverse problems with expensive, or intractable, forward models. ODE inverse problems are commonly treated as likelihood-free, as their forward map has to be numerically approximated by an ODE solver. This, however, is not a fundamental constraint but jus…
A new method extends Bayesian optimization to more models and utilities.
Automatically learns summary features from time series data for likelihood-free inference.
Improved likelihood-free inference by localizing and refining low-dimensional approximations.
A new method improves likelihood-free Bayesian inference by transforming summary statistics and using efficient Variational Bayes.
Unified approach for sequence design combining likelihood-free inference and black-box optimization.
A new method reduces dimensionality for better likelihood-free parameter estimation.
Paper proposes a new method for probabilistic electricity price forecasting.
New method uses neural exponential families for likelihood-free inference.
We introduce a framework using Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) for likelihood--free inference (LFI) and Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) where we replace the black-box simulator model with an approximator network and generate a rich set of summary features in a data driven fashion. On benchmark data sets, …
Likelihood-free methods perform parameter inference in stochastic simulator models where evaluating the likelihood is intractable but sampling synthetic data is possible. One class of methods for this likelihood-free problem uses a classifier to distinguish between pairs of parameter-observation samples generated using…
Bayesian neural networks improve likelihood-free inference efficiency.
Likelihood-free inference is concerned with the estimation of the parameters of a non-differentiable stochastic simulator that best reproduce real observations. In the absence of a likelihood function, most of the existing inference methods optimize the simulator parameters through a handcrafted iterative procedure tha…
Likelihood-free methods such as approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) have extended the reach of statistical inference to problems with computationally intractable likelihoods. Such approaches perform well for small-to-moderate dimensional problems, but suffer a curse of dimensionality in the number of model parameter…
I consider two problems in machine learning and statistics: the problem of estimating the joint probability density of a collection of random variables, known as density estimation, and the problem of inferring model parameters when their likelihood is intractable, known as likelihood-free inference. The contribution o…
New method estimates HMM hidden states efficiently.
Likelihood-free inference involves inferring parameter values given observed data and a simulator model. The simulator is computer code which takes parameters, performs stochastic calculations, and outputs simulated data. In this work, we view the simulator as a function whose inputs are (1) the parameters and (2) a ve…
Paper proposes energy objective for training normalizing flows without determinants.
In likelihood-free settings where likelihood evaluations are intractable, approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) addresses the formidable inference task to discover plausible parameters of simulation programs that explain the observations. However, they demand large quantities of simulation calls. Critically, hyperpara…
Improves likelihood-free inference by using a new sampling approach to avoid biased data collection.
Improved MMD estimator for likelihood-free inference.
Direct neural ratio estimator for likelihood-free inference.
We extend recent work (Brehmer, et. al., 2018) that use neural networks as surrogate models for likelihood-free inference. As in the previous work, we exploit the fact that the joint likelihood ratio and joint score, conditioned on both observed and latent variables, can often be extracted from an implicit generative m…
New method for conditional sampling using M-GANs, likely-free inference.
New method improves likelihood-free parameter estimation in complex models.
Parametric statistical models that are implicitly defined in terms of a stochastic data generating process are used in a wide range of scientific disciplines because they enable accurate modeling. However, learning the parameters from observed data is generally very difficult because their likelihood function is typica…
New method for state inference in state-space models with unknown dynamics.
Likelihood-free inference refers to inference when a likelihood function cannot be explicitly evaluated, which is often the case for models based on simulators. Most of the literature is based on sample-based `Approximate Bayesian Computation' methods, but recent work suggests that approaches based on deep neural condi…
Likelihood-free inference for simulator-based statistical models has developed rapidly from its infancy to a useful tool for practitioners. However, models with more than a handful of parameters still generally remain a challenge for the Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) based inference. To advance the possibiliti…
A new method for experimental design focuses on predicting downstream quantities of interest.
Neural point estimators improve parameter estimation from replicated data.
Proposes ABC method for discrete data, improving likelihood-free inference.
Reconstructing the position of an interaction for any dual-phase time projection chamber (TPC) with the best precision is key to directly detecting Dark Matter. Using the likelihood-free framework, a new algorithm to reconstruct the 2-D (x; y) position and the size of the charge signal (e) of an interaction is presente…
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a framework for performing likelihood-free posterior inference for simulation models. Stochastic Variational inference (SVI) is an appealing alternative to the inefficient sampling approaches commonly used in ABC. However, SVI is highly sensitive to the variance of the gradient…
Our paper deals with inferring simulator-based statistical models given some observed data. A simulator-based model is a parametrized mechanism which specifies how data are generated. It is thus also referred to as generative model. We assume that only a finite number of parameters are of interest and allow the generat…
Improved likelihood-free inference using preconditioned neural posterior estimation.
An explosion of high-throughput DNA sequencing in the past decade has led to a surge of interest in population-scale inference with whole-genome data. Recent work in population genetics has centered on designing inference methods for relatively simple model classes, and few scalable general-purpose inference techniques…
A new framework bridges classical and machine learning methods for reliable inference from complex models.
A learned generative model often produces biased statistics relative to the underlying data distribution. A standard technique to correct this bias is importance sampling, where samples from the model are weighted by the likelihood ratio under model and true distributions. When the likelihood ratio is unknown, it can b…
The paper proposes using path signatures for better inference in time series data.
The paper tackles hypothesis testing for likelihood-free inference with a new kernel-based approach.