This research improves dynamical systems understanding by identifying latent states and their nonlinear transitions.
problem Previous work on dynamical systems could not identify nonlinear transition dynamics, leading to unreliable predictions.
method Proposes a state-space modeling framework using variational auto-encoders to identify latent states and their nonlinear transition functions.
result Demonstrates high accuracy in recovering latent state dynamics and future prediction accuracy.
Polynomial-time algorithm learns latent-state systems without spectral radius assumptions.
problem Learning latent-state linear dynamical systems without spectral radius assumptions.
method Spectral filtering technique with a novel convex relaxation.
result Efficient identification of phases for general transition matrices.
Paper proposes method for optimal control of unknown systems with latent states.
problem Jointly estimating dynamics and latent states in systems with unmeasurable states.
method Combination of particle Markov chain Monte Carlo methods and scenario theory.
result Probabilistic performance guarantees for optimal input trajectories.
Bayesian method synthesizes barrier certificates for unknown systems with latent states.
problem Certifying safety in systems with unknown dynamics and latent states.
method Bayesian inference with Metropolis-Hastings sampler and sum-of-squares program.
result Probabilistic validity of barrier certificates for unknown systems.
Paper models non-linear dynamics from time series data.
problem Modeling non-linear dynamical systems from time series data.
method Introduces latent state modeling and a novel alternating minimization algorithm.
result LaNoLem achieves competitive performance in dynamics estimation and prediction.
Advantage amplification helps RL in slow-evolving latent-state environments.
problem Challenges in reinforcement learning for long-horizon latent-state environments.
method Temporal abstraction and aggregation methods to overcome belief state error and small action advantage.
result Proven advantage amplification in settings with slowly evolving latent states.
New algorithms tackle latent bandit problems with lower regret.
problem Learning optimal actions in a latent state setting.
method General algorithms based on UCBs and Thompson sampling, aware of model uncertainty.
result Our methods have lower regret than classic bandit policies when latent states are fewer than actions.
Active learning selects inputs for GPSSM to learn latent states.
problem Optimally learn latent states of a GPSSM through active selection of inputs.
method Use mutual information to select informative inputs; approximate mutual information for GPSSM.
result Effective active learning of GPSSM dynamics in physical systems.
Adversarial attacks on probabilistic state-space models affect latent state and policy decisions.
problem Robust reinforcement learning under adversarial observability.
method Analyzing adversarial attacks on linear probabilistic state-space models.
result Demonstrating the influence of adversarial observations on latent state and policy decisions.
Auto-regressive models learn latent states from partially observed linear dynamical systems.
problem Understanding how auto-regressive models learn latent representations from partially observed linear dynamical systems.
method Empirical risk minimization on partially observed linear dynamical systems.
result Two-layer linear auto-regressive models learn to approximate Kalman filtering, coinciding with optimal state estimates.
New model captures state-dependent variability in partially observed systems.
problem Structured stochasticity not captured by constant-variance models.
method State-coupled stochastic volatility framework with particle expectation-maximization.
result Model consistently reduces recovery bias under partial observation.
Paper introduces OMD for ordered state transitions in SSMs.
problem Modeling ordered latent states in dynamic systems.
method Ordered Matrix Dirichlet (OMD) prior over ordered stochastic matrices.
result OMD models recover interpretable ordered latent structure without sacrificing predictive performance.
Online DEM improves tracking of latent states in dynamic systems.
problem Tracking latent states in dynamic systems with online updates.
method Specializes DEM for online data assimilation, separating temporal scales.
result ODEM can track latent states of a non-linear generative model.
A new method for inferring latent states in Markov jump processes.
problem Intractable exact inference for Markov jump processes.
method Entropic matching within expectation propagation.
result Superior performance in approximating the mean of the posterior process.
This paper tackles belief-state selection in simulators with latent states.
problem Selecting among approximate belief-state samplers for simulators with latent variables.
method Reduces belief-state selection to conditional distribution selection, develops algorithms and analyses.
result Different formulations of belief-state selection have varying guarantees under different roll-out methods.
Method learns latent states from rich observations to improve RL exploration.
problem Improving RL performance with rich observations and latent states.
method Estimates latent states from observations through regression and clustering, providing finite-sample guarantees.
result Exponential improvement over Q-learning with naïve exploration. Develops a method to model neural dynamics with flexible yet interpretable latent states.
problem Capturing complex nonlinear dynamics in neural time series while maintaining interpretability.
method Gaussian Process Switching Linear Dynamical System (gpSLDS) that balances expressiveness and interpretability.
result Favorable performance in comparison to rSLDS on synthetic and real neuroscience data.
SGLDS models multivariate data with a sparse graph linking latent states.
problem Modeling sequential multivariate data with varying dynamics.
method Nonparametric Bayesian approach using a gamma process and Bernoulli-Poisson link.
result Demonstrates state-of-the-art performance on synthetic and real data.
The Gaussian process state space model (GPSSM) is a non-linear dynamical system, where unknown transition and/or measurement mappings are described by GPs. Most research in GPSSMs has focussed on the state estimation problem, i.e., computing a posterior of the latent state given the model. However, the key challenge in…
This paper studies when particle filtering is efficient for planning in partially observed systems.
problem The efficiency of particle filtering for planning in partially observed linear dynamical systems.
method Coupling of ideal and approximate sequences to bound particle complexity.
result Polynomially many particles suffice for stable systems to approximate optimal planning.
New 2D maps improve image captioning models.
problem Captions generated by RNNs are often poor.
method Used 2D maps instead of vectors to represent latent states.
result 2D maps lead to better captioning performance.
RichID learns optimal control policies from nonlinear observations.
problem Continuous control with unknown nonlinearity in system model.
method RichID algorithm using a least-squares regression oracle.
result First provable sample complexity guarantee for continuous control.
Federated framework learns causal states to predict counterfactuals without centralizing data.
problem Decentralized counterfactual reasoning in coupled industrial systems with private data.
method Federated causal representation learning in state-space systems.
result Proves convergence to centralized oracle and provides privacy guarantees.
New BED method handles online inference for partially observed dynamical systems.
problem Optimizing data collection for partially observable, partially online dynamical systems.
method Derived estimators of expected information gain and its gradient for SSMs, using nested particle filters.
result Successfully handles both partial observability and online inference in realistic models.
A new MLSS model approximates high-order Markov chains efficiently.
problem Efficiently approximating high-order Markov chains.
method Decaying mixture over past states, simple sampling algorithm.
result Approximates high-order Markov chains with fixed time and memory costs.
Bayesian framework integrates prior and data knowledge for nonlinear dynamical systems.
problem Fusing diverse prior knowledge with data for accurate model learning.
method General-purpose Bayesian inference and learning framework combining explicit and implicit prior knowledge.
result Efficient parameter marginalization and closed-form densities for online and offline inference.
PRGDS models count tensors with sparsity and burstiness.
problem Modeling sequential count data with sparsity and burstiness.
method Poisson-randomized gamma dynamical system with alternating Poisson and gamma latent states.
result Sparse PRGDS often outperforms other models in predicting count data.
Study reveals latent state computation in stochastic volatility models.
problem Understanding latent stochastic dynamics in noisy, partially observed observations.
method Multivariate stochastic volatility setting, controlled experiments on various architectures.
result Evidence of a two-stage computation: latent state encoding and output head mapping.
VSDN models sporadic time series with neural SDEs.
problem Modeling irregular and sparse time series data.
method Variational Bayesian method and neural SDEs.
result VSDNs outperform state-of-the-art models in prediction and interpolation.
We decode latent states in Block MDPs and learn near-optimal policies.
problem Model estimation and reward-free learning in Block MDPs.
method Information-theoretical lower bound and efficient model estimation algorithm.
result Our algorithm approaches the information-theoretical limit for latent state decoding and converges to optimal policies.
Improved MCMC for rare events in hidden Markov models.
problem Slow inference and prediction for rare latent states in hidden Markov models.
method Targeted sub-sampling (TASS) over-samples rare latent states, reducing variance in gradient estimation.
result Substantial gains in predictive and inferential accuracy on real and synthetic examples.
AC-State discovers minimal latent state for control.
problem Discover minimal latent state from sensory information.
method Multi-step inverse model with information bottleneck.
result Guaranteed discovery of control-endogenous latent states.
Develops Φ-DVAE for assimilating unstructured data into physical models.
problem Challenges in incorporating unstructured data into physical models.
method Physics-informed dynamical variational autoencoder (Φ-DVAE) combining latent state-space model and VAE. result Demonstrates data-efficient dynamics encoding with competitive performance and uncertainty quantification.
Decodes neural activity to assess latent states in real-world driving tasks.
problem Understanding latent states during complex tasks in natural settings.
method Domain-generalized models trained on controlled lab paradigms applied to ecologically valid driving tasks.
result Changes in neural activity correlate with changes in behavior and task performance.
Generative model blends query input with latent states for structured improvisation.
problem Generating structured music from latent states of a neural network.
method Used a Variational Autoencoder (VAE) trained on a specific style corpus, and controlled blending with a noisy channel.
result Generated music with longer-term structure that blends query input with network style.
HOMER learns latent states to explore rich environments efficiently.
problem Exploration in rich observation environments with unknown latent states.
method Interleaves representation learning and strategic exploration to identify kinematic states.
result Provably efficient exploration with polynomial sample complexity in latent states and time horizon.
Many natural systems, such as neurons firing in the brain or basketball teams traversing a court, give rise to time series data with complex, nonlinear dynamics. We can gain insight into these systems by decomposing the data into segments that are each explained by simpler dynamic units. Building on switching linear dy…
New method infers hidden states in continuous-time phenomena better than traditional models.
problem Traditional HSMM's are limited to discrete time grids and cannot handle irregularly spaced data.
method Formulated integro-differential forward and backward equations for CTSMC's, introduced scalable Viterbi-type algorithm.
result Efficiently solved equations for posterior marginals and path estimates.
In this article, we present the elitist particle filter based on evolutionary strategies (EPFES) as an efficient approach for nonlinear system identification. The EPFES is derived from the frequently-employed state-space model, where the relevant information of the nonlinear system is captured by an unknown state vecto…
Recent advances in the estimation of deep directed graphical models and recurrent networks let us contribute to the removal of a blind spot in the area of probabilistc modelling of time series. The proposed methods i) can infer distributed latent state-space trajectories with nonlinear transitions, ii) scale to large d…
Federated learning interprets temporal dynamics across clients with graph attention.
problem Interpreting temporal patterns across decentralized, heterogeneous systems with nonlinear dynamics.
method Graph Attention Network for learning state transition models over latent states communicated between clients.
result First interpretable characterization of cross-client temporal interdependencies in decentralized nonlinear systems.
Enhanced feedback model improves sample-efficiency in POMDPs.
problem Exponential hardness of learning in POMDPs.
method Multiple observations in hindsight feedback model.
result Sample-efficient learning possible for new subclasses of POMDPs.
Method learns to map dynamics of different systems.
problem Mapping dynamics of different systems.
method Learned latent dynamical system for mapping.
result Learned correspondences enable imagined motions and bisimulation.
Agent decides when to measure latent states in RL to improve efficiency.
problem Costly state measurement in RL negatively affects future outcomes.
method Introduces AOMDP with measurement action, uses online RL and sequential Monte Carlo.
result Reduced uncertainty improves sample efficiency and policy value.
A new model validation framework for agentic AI systems based on POMDPs.
problem Model validation of agentic AI systems.
method A POMDP-based framework for belief-state, forecast, and policy validation.
result The framework decomposes autonomous decision making into information, beliefs, forecasts, actions, and utility.
Develops a new method to discover causal relationships from nonstationary time series data.
problem Challenges in inferring causal relationships from observational data, especially for nonstationary time series.
method State-Dependent Causal Inference (SDCI) for conditionally stationary time series.
result SDCI can recover underlying causal dependencies with provable identifiability for state-dependent causal structures.
This paper introduces a new neural ODE model for continuous-time sequence generation.
problem Representing and predicting continuous-time sequences with high accuracy.
method A neural emission model and neural ODE define the latent state evolution, with an Energy-based model for prior distribution.
result The model outperforms existing methods in various tasks, including long-horizon predictions.
Paper combines latent state space with CRF for improved autoregressive text generation.
problem Autoregressive models expose hidden state trajectory to biases.
method Combines latent state space model with CRF observation model.
result Improved performance on unconditional sentence generation compared to RNN and GAN baselines.