Study large financial markets' pricing and hedging of financial claims.
problem Pricing and hedging of financial claims in large financial markets.
method Examined large Black-Scholes model, connected arbitrage and α-quantile price. result Connection between asymptotic arbitrage and behavior of α-quantile price. Optimizes VWAP strategies for large market volumes with complex market impacts.
problem Minimizing IS cost under general shaped market impact functions.
method Optimization of VWAP execution strategies in a Black-Scholes model with stochastic clock and large trading volume.
result An optimal strategy is a VWAP execution strategy.
Large traders disrupt the market's long-term memory of order signs.
problem Long-term memory of market order signs is weakened by large traders.
method Analyzed over 6.7 billion trades to investigate the impact of large investment funds on market order dynamics.
result The long-term memory of market order signs is weaker when large investment funds trade in a directional manner and when their participation is high.
Study examines trading strategies against a disorderly liquidation of a large position.
problem Trading against a hedge fund's disorderly liquidation of a risky asset.
method Classified market participants into three types: fully informed, partially informed, and uninformed. Analyzed their optimal trading and wealth processes.
result Different types of investors have distinct optimal trading strategies and wealth processes.
Study examines large banks' role in interbank markets using game theory.
problem Understanding systemic risk in interbank markets with large banks.
method Mean-field game framework, convex analysis, Monte Carlo simulations.
result Large banks can positively or negatively impact market stability.
The main result of the paper is a version of the fundamental theorem of asset pricing (FTAP) for large financial markets based on an asymptotic concept of no market free lunch for monotone concave preferences. The proof uses methods from the theory of Orlicz spaces. Moreover, various notions of no asymptotic arbitrage …
In the context of large financial markets we formulate the notion of \emph{no asymptotic free lunch with vanishing risk} (NAFLVR), under which we can prove a version of the fundamental theorem of asset pricing (FTAP) in markets with an (even uncountably) infinite number of assets, as it is for instance the case in bond…
This paper deals with the notion of a large financial market and the concepts of asymptotic arbitrage and strong asymptotic arbitrage (both of the first kind), introduced by Yu.M. Kabanov and D.O. Kramkov. We show that the arbitrage properties of a large market are completely determined by the asymptotic behavior of th…
Closed-form optimal portfolios for exponential utility in small/large markets.
problem Optimal portfolios maximizing exponential utility in small/large financial markets.
method Closed-form expressions for optimal portfolios in small markets, convergence to large market optimal utility, numerical procedure for general utility functions.
result Optimal utility in large markets converges to optimal utility in small markets, requiring infinite diversification.
LLMs simulate financial markets, revealing consistent trading strategies and market dynamics.
problem Testing financial theories with AI trading agents.
method Simulated stock market with LLMs using a persistent order book and varied strategies.
result LLMs can simulate different trading strategies and market dynamics.
Study utility indifference pricing and optimal positions in asymptotically complete markets.
problem Utility indifference pricing and optimal positions in incomplete markets with vanishing hedging errors.
method Analysis of utility indifference prices and optimal purchasing quantities in semi-martingale markets, using Large Deviations theory and Gärtner-Ellis theorem.
result Optimally taken positions become large in absolute value at a specific rate when the average indifference price converges to a limit.
Over-the-counter markets can change drastically due to portfolio compression, affecting their size and structure.
problem Understanding and managing changes in over-the-counter markets due to portfolio compression.
method Analysis of transaction-level data on credit-default swaps markets, study of mandate effects on central clearing and portfolio compression.
result Portfolio compression can lead to significant reductions in market notional and network structure, and mandates for central clearing can exacerbate these effects.
Prediction markets can be manipulated by traders who can move contract settlements, harming price discovery.
problem Manipulation of settlement times in prediction markets leads to unfair wealth transfer and harms price discovery.
method Developed a model showing how settlement manipulation transfers wealth and harms price discovery, and observed real-world effects on Polymarket's Bitcoin contract.
result Manipulators capture significant profits from retail traders, especially when settlement times are short.
Estimates time scales for market entry patterns in large games.
problem Understanding the time scales for market entry patterns in large games.
method Analysis of a partial differential equation for the distribution of agents.
result Characterizes the times it takes for market entry patterns to emerge.
Investment strategy developed using causal discovery algorithms in equity markets.
problem Lack of actionable causal relationships in large equity markets.
method Causal discovery algorithms applied to equity market data.
result Causal discovery algorithms can uncover actionable causal relationships in equity markets, leading to profitable investment outcomes.
Study of stock market mini flash crashes, revealing large market orders as primary cause.
problem Understanding the causes and recovery of mini flash crashes in stock markets.
method Empirical analysis of stock market data, focusing on Ultrafast Extreme Events.
result Large market orders are the primary cause of most mini flash crashes, not high frequency trading.
Study optimizes financial investments in large markets.
problem Maximizing expected utility in large financial markets with factor structures.
method Establishes optimizers under weaker assumptions, studies convergence of optimal investments.
result Continuity rules hold for optimal investments in small and large markets.
The paper proposes a new order slicing strategy to reduce market impact in large-volume trading.
problem Significant market impact and slippage in large-volume trading.
method Volatility-volume-based order slicing strategy using Exponential Weighted Moving Average and Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations.
result Improves trade execution efficiency and reduces market impact.
Traders in a market typically have widely different, private information on the return of an asset. The equilibrium price of the asset may reflect this information more accurately if the number of traders is large enough compared to the number of the states of the world that determine the return of the asset. We study …
Study optimal liquidation strategies in lit and dark pools with and without regulation.
problem Optimal liquidation strategies in dark and lit pools with execution uncertainty.
method Design optimal make-take fee policies, solve HJB-Fokker-Planck systems, use BSDEs.
result Explicit solutions for optimal strategies in both competitive and regulated markets.
New model predicts stock performance in large equity markets.
problem Predicting stock performance in large equity markets over long time horizons.
method Rank-based volatility stabilized models calibrated to empirical data.
result The model exhibits relative arbitrage and statistically fits empirical features.
Model asset pricing with habit formation in a large market.
problem Understanding asset pricing in large heterogeneous markets with habit formation.
method Mean field game theory and quadratic-growth mean field BSDEs.
result Derives a semi-analytic solution for asset pricing model.
Investigates a multivariate GARCH model with dynamic beta for large markets.
problem Application challenges in multivariate GARCH models for markets with many stocks.
method Factor model with six free GARCH parameters, dynamic beta coefficients.
result Competitive results compared to other GARCH models, confirms market transitions.
We develop a single-period model for a large economic agent who trades with market makers at their utility indifference prices. A key role is played by a pair of conjugate saddle functions associated with the description of Pareto optimal allocations in terms of the utility function of a representative market maker.
The paper analyzes trade execution strategies for large traders in a stochastic market environment.
problem Analyzing trade execution strategies in a stochastic market with price impact.
method Formulated a Markov game model and used backward induction method of dynamic programming.
result Explicit closed-form execution strategy at Markov perfect equilibrium.
LLMs struggle with financial reasoning but can outperform the market with human oversight.
problem Financial reasoning failures in LLM-generated stock market predictions.
method Evaluated four LLMs using three prompting strategies and compared to human oversight.
result LLMs require human oversight to fully realize their potential in financial markets.
We investigate the large-volatility dynamics in financial markets, based on the minute-to-minute and daily data of the Chinese Indices and German DAX. The dynamic relaxation both before and after large volatilities is characterized by a power law, and the exponents p± usually vary with the strength of the large vo…
Investor expectations shifted pessimistically during the 2020 stock market crash and recovery.
problem Analyzing changes in investor expectations during the 2020 stock market crash and recovery.
method Surveying Vanguard clients at three points: before, during, and after the crash.
result Investor pessimism increased following the crash, with significant disagreement about future outcomes.
We will compare three types of prices, namely, rational (hedging) prices, geometric (growth rate) prices, and martingale (measure) prices. We will show that rational prices in the complete market theory are sometimes contrary to common sense. In the continuous-time case, we insist that the market model should differ be…
In the large financial market, which is described by a model with countably many traded assets, we formulate the problem of the expected utility maximization. Assuming that the preferences of an economic agent are modeled with a stochastic utility and that the consumption occurs according to a stochastic clock, we obta…
Study analyzes risks and opportunities in blockchain currency markets.
problem Characteristics of blockchain-based currency markets.
method Analysis of specific risks and opportunities, algorithm evaluation.
result Provides insights for high-frequency trading in these markets.
Optimal stock trading strategy with market orders and limit orders in a risky market.
problem Finding the best time and amount to place market and limit orders to minimize costs.
method Analyzes single and multi-period models with limit and market orders, considering liquidity risk.
result Optimal placement of market and limit orders can be determined under different market conditions.
Bayesian theory explains market impact of large trades.
problem Reduction of price impact from large trades.
method Bayesian approach incorporating all trade information.
result Recovery of market impact laws including square-root and linear regimes.
Market equilibrium price proven in a large-agent model.
problem Proving market equilibrium in a large-agent setting.
method Proved existence of equilibrium price in a complete, continuous time market with infinite agents.
result The equilibrium price dynamics decouple as the number of agents increases.
We study how information perturbations can destabilize two-sided matching markets. In our model, agents arrive on the market over two periods, while agents in the first period do not know the types of those arriving later. Agents already present in the market may match early or wait for the small group of new entrants.…
A diversified portfolio is created by solving the MIS problem in large market graphs, outperforming conventional methods.
problem Finding the maximum independent set (MIS) in large-scale market graphs is computationally challenging.
method Solved the MIS problem using a quantum-inspired algorithm (Simulated Bifurcation) and a combinatorial optimization solver.
result The SB-based solver optimized MIS portfolios, achieving a Sharpe ratio of 1.16 and outperforming major indices.
Market impact is reduced when orders are filled with concentrated counterparts.
problem Market impact increases with a large number of trading counterparts.
method Analyzed London Stock Exchange data to show concentrated trading impacts market price.
result Concentrated trading reduces market impact when matched with similarly concentrated counterparts.
Study examines economic impact of wind energy on Colombian electricity market.
problem Impact of wind energy on Colombian electricity market pricing and conventional generation.
method Built a unit commitment model to simulate market legislation and system data.
result Wind energy reduces the operation of gas-fired plants by up to 20%.
We empirically study the market impact of trading orders. We are specifically interested in large trading orders that are executed incrementally, which we call hidden orders. These are reconstructed based on information about market member codes using data from the Spanish Stock Market and the London Stock Exchange. We…
Model market driver impact on volatility in derivatives markets.
problem Large trader concentrations affect derivative pricing and volatility nonlinearly.
method Modified Heston's stochastic volatility model with market driver.
result Derives a new PDE for valuing derivatives products.
Study analyzes price response and spread impact in foreign exchange markets.
problem Understanding deviations from Markovian behavior in foreign exchange markets.
method Detailed large-scale data analysis of price response functions for different years and time scales, using pip bid-ask spread definition.
result Large pip spreads significantly impact price response in foreign exchange markets.
Large financial dataset tracks FOMC communications and their impact.
problem Understanding how FOMC communications influence financial markets.
method Constructed a large annotated dataset of FOMC speeches, minutes, and transcripts. Developed a hawk-dove classification task. Evaluated various models on the dataset and used RoBERTa-large for monetary policy stance measurement.
result Monetary policy stance measures derived from FOMC documents predict market performance.
Develops a stochastic approach to financial market delays.
problem Modeling delays in financial markets with multiple assets.
method Introduces a general stochastic framework for information and order execution delays.
result Delayed markets maintain fundamental asset pricing theorems and no asymptotic free lunch condition.
In these notes, we present some methods and applications of large deviations to finance and insurance. We begin with the classical ruin problem related to the Cramer's theorem and give en extension to an insurance model with investment in stock market. We then describe how large deviation approximation and importance s…
The study challenges the reliability of VaR due to market randomness.
problem Reliability and accuracy of VaR predictions are compromised by market randomness.
method Introduces market-based probabilities of price and return, dependent on trade values and volumes.
result Market-based price volatility is more accurate than frequency-based VaR predictions.
Cryptocurrencies show mature market characteristics but vary by size.
problem Understanding maturity in cryptocurrency markets.
method Quantitative analysis of return distributions, volatility, and correlations.
result Smaller cryptocurrencies lack mature market characteristics.
Extends FTAP to large financial markets with two filtrations.
problem Modeling asset pricing in complex financial markets.
method Generalizes FTAP to continuous time, large markets with two filtrations, without assuming specific properties of price processes.
result A simplified version of FTAP for large financial markets with two filtrations.
Game theory models futures market dynamics with incomplete information.
problem Modeling competition and price dynamics in futures markets with incomplete information.
method Formalizes a multi-step, non-cooperative game for n players.
result Reduction in price gaps due to high competition improves market liquidity.