A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
We study the phase transition of dynamical herd behaviors for the yen-dollar exchange rate in the Japanese financial market. It is obtained that the probability distribution of returns satisfies the power-law behavior with three different values of the scaling exponent 3.11 (one time lag = 1 minute), 2.81 (30 minut…
Based on the minute-by-minute data of the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong and the analysis of probability distribution and autocorrelations, we find that the index fluctuations for the first few minutes of daily opening show behaviors very different from those of the other times. In particular, the properties of tail dist…
We investigate the large-volatility dynamics in financial markets, based on the minute-to-minute and daily data of the Chinese Indices and German DAX. The dynamic relaxation both before and after large volatilities is characterized by a power law, and the exponents usually vary with the strength of the large vo…
We investigate the large-fluctuation dynamics in financial markets, based on the minute-to-minute and daily data of the Chinese Indices and German DAX. The dynamic relaxation both before and after the large fluctuations is characterized by a power law, and the exponents usually vary with the strength of the lar…
This paper describes audEERING's submissions as well as additional evaluations for the One-Minute-Gradual (OMG) emotion recognition challenge. We provide the results for audio and video processing on subject (in)dependent evaluations. On the provided Development set, we achieved 0.343 Concordance Correlation Coefficien…
The study analyzes Bitcoin market volatility using GARCH models and external information.
The relaxation dynamics of aftershocks after large volatility shocks are investigated based on two high-frequency data sets of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite (SSEC) index. Compared with previous relevant work, we have defined main financial shocks based on large volatilities rather than large crashes. We find th…
Synchronized stochastic gradient descent (SGD) optimizers with data parallelism are widely used in training large-scale deep neural networks. Although using larger mini-batch sizes can improve the system scalability by reducing the communication-to-computation ratio, it may hurt the generalization ability of the models…
We study the continuous time random walk theory from financial tick data of the yen-dollar exchange rate transacted at the Japanese financial market. The dynamical behavior of returns and volatilities in this case is particularly treated at the long-time limit. We find that the volatility for prices shows a power-law w…
Mamba outperforms Reformer in minute-level stock prediction using LLM sentiment scores.
Informer model with GMADL loss outperforms benchmarks in high frequency Bitcoin trading.
Power spectrum densities for the number of tick quotes per minute (market activity) on three currency markets (USD/JPY, EUR/USD, and JPY/EUR) for periods from January 1999 to December 2000 are analyzed. We find some peaks on the power spectrum densities at a few minutes. We develop the double-threshold agent model and …
Accelerates BERT pretraining from 3 days to 54 minutes.
Study predicts cryptocurrency price movements using Twitter sentiment analysis.
Robot learns to juggle two balls from 56 minutes of experience.
Data set tracks real-time election results for 4 hours post-October 2019 Portuguese elections.
We investigate the herd behavior of returns for the yen-dollar exchange rate in the Japanese financial market. It is obtained that the probability distribution of returns satisfies the power-law behavior with the exponents (the time interval one minute) and 3.36( one da…
Scheduling surgeries is a challenging task due to the fundamental uncertainty of the clinical environment, as well as the risks and costs associated with under- and over-booking. We investigate neural regression algorithms to estimate the parameters of surgery case durations, focusing on the issue of heteroscedasticity…
We investigate the correlation properties of transaction data from the New York Stock Exchange. The trading activity f(t) of each stock displays a crossover from weaker to stronger correlations at time scales 60-390 minutes. In both regimes, the Hurst exponent H depends logarithmically on the liquidity of the stock, me…
We investigate the Heston model with stochastic volatility and exponential tails as a model for the typical price fluctuations of the Brazilian São Paulo Stock Exchange Index (IBOVESPA). Raw prices are first corrected for inflation and a period spanning 15 years characterized by memoryless returns is chosen for the ana…
We analyse a period spanning 35 years of activity in the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index (IBOVESPA) and show that the Heston model with stochastic volatility is capable of explaining price fluctuations for time scales ranging from 5 minutes to 100 days with a single set of parameters. We also show that the Heston model …
The minute-by-minute move of the Hang Seng Index (HSI) data over a four-year period is analysed and shown to possess similar statistical features as those of other markets. Based on a mathematical theorem [S. B. Pope and E. S. C. Ching, Phys. Fluids A {\bf 5}, 1529 (1993)], we derive an analytic form for the probabilit…
Informer improves financial market prediction accuracy with global time stamp features.
Prediction markets can be manipulated by traders who can move contract settlements, harming price discovery.
Training large deep neural networks on massive datasets is computationally very challenging. There has been recent surge in interest in using large batch stochastic optimization methods to tackle this issue. The most prominent algorithm in this line of research is LARS, which by employing layerwise adaptive learning ra…
This paper addresses the question of identifying the time-window in short-term past from which the information regarding the future occupant's window opening actions and resulting window states in buildings can be predicted. The addressed sequence duration was in the range between 30 and 240 time-steps of indoor climat…
Bitcoin reacts positively to USDT minting but not burning, showing state-dependence.
An empirical study of joint bivariate probability distribution of two consecutive price increments for a set of stocks at time scales ranging from one minute to thirty minutes reveals asymmetric structures with respect to the axes y=0, y=x, x=0 and y=-x. All four asymmetry patterns remarkably resemble a four-blade mill…
Large financial dataset tracks FOMC communications and their impact.
We consider the problem of modeling cardiovascular responses to physical activity and sleep changes captured by wearable sensors in free living conditions. We use an attentional convolutional neural network to learn parsimonious signatures of individual cardiovascular response from data recorded at the minute level res…
We investigate the relative information efficiency of financial markets by measuring the entropy of the time series of high frequency data. Our tool to measure efficiency is the Shannon entropy, applied to 2-symbol and 3-symbol discretisations of the data. Analysing 1-minute and 5-minute price time series of 55 Exchang…
This technical report records the experiments of applying multiple machine learning algorithms for predicting eating and food purchasing behaviors of free-living individuals. Data was collected with accelerometer, global positioning system (GPS), and body-worn cameras called SenseCam over a one week period in 81 indivi…
Manifold Learning is a class of algorithms seeking a low-dimensional non-linear representation of high-dimensional data. Thus manifold learning algorithms are, at least in theory, most applicable to high-dimensional data and sample sizes to enable accurate estimation of the manifold. Despite this, most existing manifol…
Automated framework forecasts correlated time series in minutes.
This short paper describes our solution to the 2018 IEEE World Congress on Computational Intelligence One-Minute Gradual-Emotional Behavior Challenge, whose goal was to estimate continuous arousal and valence values from short videos. We designed four base regression models using visual and audio features, and then use…
Achilles predicts Gold vs USD with a profitable trading bot.
In informationally efficient financial markets, option prices and this implied volatility should immediately be adjusted to new information that arrives along with a jump in underlying's return, whereas gradual changes in implied volatility would indicate market inefficiency. Using minute-by-minute data on S&P 500 inde…
Study finds traditional technical indicators underperform in high-frequency trading, suggesting risk management over prediction.
The statistical properties of the increments x(t+T) - x(t) of a financial time series depend on the time resolution T on which the increments are considered. A non-parametric approach is used to study the scale dependence of the empirical distribution of the price increments x(t+T) - x(t) of S&P Index futures, for time…
We present a simple, yet realistic, agent-based model of an electricity market. The proposed model combines the spot and balancing markets with a resolution of one minute, which enables a more accurate depiction of the physical properties of the power grid. As a test, we compare the results obtained from our simulation…
We analyzed multifractal properties of 5-minute stock returns from a period of over two years for 100 highly capitalized American companies. The two sources: fat-tailed probability distributions and nonlinear temporal correlations, vitally contribute to the observed multifractal dynamics of the returns. For majority of…
We analyze high-resolution foreign exchange data consisting of 20 million data points of USD-JPY for 13 years to report firm statistical laws in distributions and correlations of exchange rate fluctuations. A conditional probability density analysis clearly shows the existence of trend-following movements at time scale…
We investigate the emergence of a structure in the correlation matrix of assets' returns as the time-horizon over which returns are computed increases from the minutes to the daily scale. We analyze data from different stock markets (New York, Paris, London, Milano) and with different methods. Result crucially depends …
This paper shows that a simple baseline based on a Bag-of-Words (BoW) representation learns surprisingly good knowledge graph embeddings. By casting knowledge base completion and question answering as supervised classification problems, we observe that modeling co-occurences of entities and relations leads to state-of-…
The paper validates a classifier for identifying intraday regime shifts in MNQ futures.
Study shows different price correlations in European electricity markets.
A new method scales sparse machine learning to ultra-high dimensional problems.
Wavelet denoised-ResNet with LightGBM predicts Forex rate of change.