This paper clusters networks with annotated time-series data using kernel-ARMA and Grassmannian geometry.
problem Clustering networks with annotated time-series data, including state, node, and subnetwork clustering.
method Extract features from time-series data using kernel-ARMA, map onto Grassmannian, and cluster using Riemannian geometry.
result The proposed framework outperforms state-of-the-art clustering schemes on brain-network data.
New method clusters brain networks via nonlinear dependencies.
problem Capturing non-linear nodal dependencies in brain networks.
method Kernel ARMA modeling and Grassmannian mapping.
result Effective clustering framework for various brain network problems.
ARMA nets expand receptive fields for dense prediction tasks.
problem Global information in dense prediction problems is challenging for traditional convolutional layers.
method ARMA layers with adjustable autoregressive coefficients replace traditional convolutions.
result ARMA networks improve dense prediction tasks including video prediction and semantic segmentation.
Study improves financial risk assessment using ARMA-APARCH-EVT models with HACs.
problem Improving risk assessment in financial portfolios.
method ARMA-APARCH-EVT-HAC model for volatility and extreme value forecasting.
result Empirical analysis shows the model's effectiveness in international stock market data.
New methods for estimating ARMA and GARCH models with stable noise.
problem Estimating parameters of ARMA and GARCH models with stable noise.
method Modified Hannan-Rissanen Method and Modified Empirical Characteristic Function for estimation.
result Efficiency, accuracy, and simplicity of proposed methods demonstrated through simulation.
In this paper, we address the problem of adaptive learning for autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model in the quaternion domain. By transforming the original learning problem into a full information optimization task without explicit noise terms, and then solving the optimization problem using the gradient descent a…
Popular graph neural networks implement convolution operations on graphs based on polynomial spectral filters. In this paper, we propose a novel graph convolutional layer inspired by the auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) filter that, compared to polynomial ones, provides a more flexible frequency response, is more …
Algorithm learns graph ARMA processes for missing signal estimation.
problem Missing signal estimation in time-varying graph signals.
method Learning joint time-vertex power spectral density through convex relaxations.
result High accuracy in time-vertex signal estimation.
Improved ARMA-GARCH model for illiquid assets like cryptocurrencies.
problem Inadequate modeling of illiquid assets, especially cryptocurrencies, with traditional ARMA-GARCH models.
method Introducing liquidity-adjusted liquidity jump and diffusion metrics into ARMA-GARCH framework.
result The liquidity-adjusted model improves model fit and volatility sensitivity for cryptocurrencies.
NANSDE-Net models time series with memory using neural ARMA-type noise.
problem Modeling time series with long- or short-memory characteristics.
method Developed NANSDE-Net, a generative model that incorporates Neural Network-kernel ARMA-type noise.
result NANSDE-Net matches or outperforms existing models in reproducing long- and short-memory features of data.
ARMA cell simplifies neural autoregressive modeling for time series.
problem Complex RNN cells are not always necessary and can be inferior.
method Introduces ARMA cell, a simpler, modular approach for neural time series modeling.
result The ARMA cell is competitive with popular alternatives in performance.
GMMNs model cross-sectional dependence for better option pricing and simulation.
problem Modeling cross-sectional dependence between stochastic processes.
method Generative moment matching networks (GMMNs) for geometric Brownian motions and ARMA-GARCH models.
result GMMNs produce dependent quasi-random samples with variance reduction.
SALSA efficiently approximates leverage scores for big data, improving ARMA model fitting.
problem Efficiently approximating leverage scores for large matrices.
method Sequential approximate leverage-score algorithm (SALSA) using randomized numerical linear algebra.
result SALSA approximates leverage scores within (1+O(ε)) with high probability. One of the cornerstones of the field of signal processing on graphs are graph filters, direct analogues of classical filters, but intended for signals defined on graphs. This work brings forth new insights on the distributed graph filtering problem. We design a family of autoregressive moving average (ARMA) recursions,…
K-ARMA models cluster time series data robustly.
problem Clustering time series data effectively.
method Model-based K-ARMA clustering algorithm with robust outlier detection.
result K-ARMA models outperform existing methods for time series clustering.
We propose a mathematical procedure for finding informed traders in ultra-high frequency trading. We wrote it as Vector ARMA and found condition of its stationarity. For the price exposure complied with ARMA(1,2) we proved that underlying asset price difference can be derived as ARMA(1,1) process. For validation of the…
WAVE improves time series forecasting by integrating AR and MA components.
problem Time series forecasting challenges.
method WAVE attention mechanism with AR and MA components.
result WAVE attention consistently improves TSF performance.
Optimizes prediction error method for time-varying models.
problem Achieving optimal prediction error rates for time-varying models.
method Nonlinear least squares method for time-varying parametric models.
result First rate-optimal non-asymptotic analysis for time-varying models.
We propose a mathematical procedure for finding informed trader activities in European-style options and their underlying asset. The regression model (9) with moving average component was written. Being added to it ARMA-process for log-price differences of underlying asset, the generalized model is written as Vector AR…
The study introduces new liquidity measures and models for assets with extreme liquidity.
problem Modeling assets with extreme liquidity, especially in crypto markets.
method Developed innovative liquidity premium measures, liquidity-adjusted return and volatility models, and used ARMA-GARCH/EGARCH models.
result The liquidity-adjusted models outperform traditional models in predicting asset performance at extreme liquidity.
A new method models volatile financial time series using v-transforms and copulas.
problem Modeling volatile financial time series with standard methods.
method v-transforms and copulas to describe and estimate time series with arbitrary marginal distributions and copula dynamics.
result The model replicates stylized facts of financial return series and facilitates risk quantification.
Bayesian ARMA model with directional shifts captures structural breaks in compositional time series.
problem Structural breaks in compositional time series due to external shocks or policy changes.
method Developed a Bayesian Dirichlet ARMA model augmented with a directional-shift intervention mechanism.
result The model captures structural breaks through interpretable parameters and produces coherent probabilistic forecasts.
Mid-LSTM improves midterm stock prediction accuracy.
problem Large cumulative errors in short-term deep learning models for midterm stock predictions.
method Mid-LSTM incorporates market trend as hidden states, using ARMA and LSTM.
result Mid-LSTM achieves 2-4% improvement in prediction accuracy on S&P 500 stocks.
Proposes a method for forecasting time series with multiple seasonality.
problem Forecasting time series with both short-term and long-term seasonality is challenging.
method Two-stage method: first generalizes ARMA model for multiple seasonality, second selects lag order.
result Method outperforms `Facebook Prophet` model in predictive performance.
Time series models generalize ARMA and ARFIMA with non-Gaussian dependence.
problem Modeling non-Gaussian serial dependence in time series data.
method Infinite-order partial copula dependence in s-vine processes.
result Rich class of models that generalize linear processes.
The paper uses Bayesian methods to infer hidden processes with unknown parameters.
problem Estimating hidden processes from noisy observations with unknown parameters.
method Variational Bayesian inference with autoregressive moving average (ARMA) and vector autoregressive (VAR) models, combined with sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) and importance sampling resampling (SISR).
result The proposed inference method accurately estimates hidden states from non-linear noisy observations.
A new QHR model extends HR model with a quadratic variance function.
problem Modeling volatility with greater flexibility and stationarity.
method Introducing a quadratic variance function to the HR model, maintaining Markovian property.
result Stationary distribution of the QHR model is Pearson type IV.
This article proposes and evaluates a technique to predict the level of interference in wireless networks. We design a recursive predictor that estimates future interference values by filtering measured interference at a given location. The predictor's parameterization is done offline by translating the autocorrelation…
New vine copula method forecasts portfolio risk measures robust to market downturns.
problem Inaccurate risk measure estimation for financial portfolios due to lack of cross-dependency capture.
method Combines vine copulas with ARMA-GARCH models for marginal risk estimation.
result Portfolio is robust to American market downturns but not European market.
Generative neural networks model multivariate time series data.
problem Modeling cross-sectional dependence in multivariate time series data.
method ARMA-GARCH for serial dependence, PCA for dimensionality reduction, GMMN for cross-sectional dependence.
result GMMN-GARCH approach produces better predictive distributions and probabilistic forecasts.
In this study, the wind data series from five locations in Aegean Sea islands, the most active `hotspots' in terms of refugee influx during the Oct/2015 - Jan/2016 period, are investigated. The analysis of the three-per-site data series includes standard statistical analysis and parametric distributions, auto-correlati…
Study uses neural networks to predict credit risk in banks.
problem Credit risk management in commercial banks.
method Backpropagation neural network model.
result Neural network model improves credit risk prediction.
A formula for the Riemannian metric tensor of differentiable manifolds of linear dynamical systems of same McMillan degree is presented in terms of their transfer function matrices. The necessary calculations for its application to ARMA and state space overlapping parametrizations are drafted. The importance of this ap…
The assessment of co-movement among metals is crucial to better understand the behaviors of the metal prices and the interactions with others that affect the changes in prices. In this study, both Wavelet Analysis and VARMA (Vector Autoregressive Moving Average) models are utilized. First, Multiple Wavelet Coherence (M…
A centered innovation MA is equivalent to a digamma-link DARMA for bank-asset shares.
problem Predicting bank-asset shares using Bayesian Dirichlet ARMA models.
method Replacing raw additive log-ratio residuals with centered innovations in B--DARMA.
result Centered specification and digamma-link DARMA are predictively equivalent under specified conditions.
DP-LSTM predicts stock prices using financial news with improved accuracy and privacy.
problem Predicting stock prices with financial news articles.
method Integrates financial news articles into a sentiment-ARMA model, then uses an LSTM network with differential privacy.
result Achieves up to 65.79% improvement in MSE for S&P 500 prediction.
Adaptive t-distribution estimates nonstationary time series using moving moments.
problem Nonstationary time series with varying dependence structure.
method Moving estimator optimizing a weighted log-likelihood, using exponential moving averages for moments.
result Evolution of ν parameter in Student's t-distribution, capturing tail behavior and extreme events.
Hybrid models forecast EPEC energy spot prices.
problem Forecasting energy spot prices in EPEC markets.
method Combining Naive, Fourier, ARMA/GARCH, mean-reversion, jump-diffusion, and RNN models.
result Improved accuracy in forecasting compared to individual models.
ProteuS generates synthetic financial data with regime changes for testing drift detection.
problem Simulating concept drift in financial markets for model evaluation.
method ARMA-GARCH models fitted to ETF data, generating synthetic time series with predefined regime changes.
result Generated datasets reveal the complexity of detecting and adapting to market regime changes.
Paper optimizes demand aggregation for low-level electricity markets.
problem Accurate short-term load forecasting at low aggregation levels for market participants.
method Probabilistic portfolio optimization of residential households' demand using ARMA-GARCH models or KDE forecasts.
result Seasonal Residual approach outperforms others in accuracy and efficiency.
Energy price forecasting is a relevant yet hard task in the field of multi-step time series forecasting. In this paper we compare a well-known and established method, ARMA with exogenous variables with a relatively new technique Gradient Boosting Regression. The method was tested on data from Global Energy Forecasting …
In this paper we consider portmanteau tests for testing the adequacy of multiplicative seasonal autoregressive moving-average (SARMA) models under the assumption that the errors are uncorrelated but not necessarily independent.We relax the standard independence assumption on the error term in order to extend the range …
It is shown that in the multivariate case the orders p, of the AR part, and q, of the MA part, are not invariants of the time series. Thus, it is concluded that it only makes sense to define the class of ARMA(p,p)- irreducible models, where p is the biggest of the system's Kronecker indices. This class is shown not to …
Machine learning models outperform traditional trading strategies in crude oil markets.
problem Improving trading strategies in volatile markets.
method Comparison of four machine learning methods (LSTM, RF, SVM, k-NN) with traditional methods.
result Machine learning models outperformed traditional methods in crude oil market performance.
We discuss the probabilistic properties of the variation based third and fourth moments of financial returns as estimators of the actual moments of the return distributions. The moment variations are defined under non-parametric assumptions with quadratic variation method but for the computational tractability, we use …
We investigate the relative information efficiency of financial markets by measuring the entropy of the time series of high frequency data. Our tool to measure efficiency is the Shannon entropy, applied to 2-symbol and 3-symbol discretisations of the data. Analysing 1-minute and 5-minute price time series of 55 Exchang…
Shrinkage algorithms are of great importance in almost every area of statistics due to the increasing impact of big data. Especially time series analysis benefits from efficient and rapid estimation techniques such as the lasso. However, currently lasso type estimators for autoregressive time series models still focus …
The paper bounds generalization errors for deep neural networks with Markov datasets.
problem Bounding generalization errors for deep learning with Markov datasets.
method Developed new symmetrization inequalities for Markov chains, using spectral gap of the infinitesimal generator.
result Derived upper bounds on generalization errors for deep neural networks with Markov datasets.