A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Study improves financial risk assessment using ARMA-APARCH-EVT models with HACs.
Global information is essential for dense prediction problems, whose goal is to compute a discrete or continuous label for each pixel in the images. Traditional convolutional layers in neural networks, initially designed for image classification, are restrictive in these problems since the filter size limits their rece…
In this paper, we address the problem of adaptive learning for autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model in the quaternion domain. By transforming the original learning problem into a full information optimization task without explicit noise terms, and then solving the optimization problem using the gradient descent a…
Popular graph neural networks implement convolution operations on graphs based on polynomial spectral filters. In this paper, we propose a novel graph convolutional layer inspired by the auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) filter that, compared to polynomial ones, provides a more flexible frequency response, is more …
Algorithm learns graph ARMA processes for missing signal estimation.
Improved ARMA-GARCH model for illiquid assets like cryptocurrencies.
In this article, we first propose the modified Hannan-Rissanen Method for estimating the parameters of the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) process with symmetric stable noise and symmetric stable generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) noise. Next, we propose the modified empirical character…
ARMA cell simplifies neural autoregressive modeling for time series.
GMMNs model cross-sectional dependence for better option pricing and simulation.
SALSA efficiently approximates leverage scores for big data, improving ARMA model fitting.
One of the cornerstones of the field of signal processing on graphs are graph filters, direct analogues of classical filters, but intended for signals defined on graphs. This work brings forth new insights on the distributed graph filtering problem. We design a family of autoregressive moving average (ARMA) recursions,…
K-ARMA models cluster time series data robustly.
We propose a mathematical procedure for finding informed traders in ultra-high frequency trading. We wrote it as Vector ARMA and found condition of its stationarity. For the price exposure complied with ARMA(1,2) we proved that underlying asset price difference can be derived as ARMA(1,1) process. For validation of the…
WAVE improves time series forecasting by integrating AR and MA components.
Optimizes prediction error method for time-varying models.
We propose a mathematical procedure for finding informed trader activities in European-style options and their underlying asset. The regression model (9) with moving average component was written. Being added to it ARMA-process for log-price differences of underlying asset, the generalized model is written as Vector AR…
The study introduces new liquidity measures and models for assets with extreme liquidity.
Bayesian ARMA model with directional shifts captures structural breaks in compositional time series.
Proposes a method for forecasting time series with multiple seasonality.
Time series models generalize ARMA and ARFIMA with non-Gaussian dependence.
An approach to the modelling of volatile time series using a class of uniformity-preserving transforms for uniform random variables is proposed. V-transforms describe the relationship between quantiles of the stationary distribution of the time series and quantiles of the distribution of a predictable volatility proxy …
A new QHR model extends HR model with a quadratic variance function.
This article proposes and evaluates a technique to predict the level of interference in wireless networks. We design a recursive predictor that estimates future interference values by filtering measured interference at a given location. The predictor's parameterization is done offline by translating the autocorrelation…
New vine copula method forecasts portfolio risk measures robust to market downturns.
Stock price prediction is important for value investments in the stock market. In particular, short-term prediction that exploits financial news articles is promising in recent years. In this paper, we propose a novel deep neural network DP-LSTM for stock price prediction, which incorporates the news articles as hidden…
Midterm stock price prediction is crucial for value investments in the stock market. However, most deep learning models are essentially short-term and applying them to midterm predictions encounters large cumulative errors because they cannot avoid anomalies. In this paper, we propose a novel deep neural network Mid-LS…
In this study, the wind data series from five locations in Aegean Sea islands, the most active `hotspots' in terms of refugee influx during the Oct/2015 - Jan/2016 period, are investigated. The analysis of the three-per-site data series includes standard statistical analysis and parametric distributions, auto-correlati…
A formula for the Riemannian metric tensor of differentiable manifolds of linear dynamical systems of same McMillan degree is presented in terms of their transfer function matrices. The necessary calculations for its application to ARMA and state space overlapping parametrizations are drafted. The importance of this ap…
Study uses neural networks to predict credit risk in banks.
The assessment of co-movement among metals is crucial to better understand the behaviors of the metal prices and the interactions with others that affect the changes in prices. In this study, both Wavelet Analysis and VARMA (Vector Autoregressive Moving Average) models are utilized. First, Multiple Wavelet Coherence (M…
A centered innovation MA is equivalent to a digamma-link DARMA for bank-asset shares.
NANSDE-Net models time series with memory using neural ARMA-type noise.
Adaptive t-distribution estimates nonstationary time series using moving moments.
Hybrid models forecast EPEC energy spot prices.
ProteuS generates synthetic financial data with regime changes for testing drift detection.
Energy price forecasting is a relevant yet hard task in the field of multi-step time series forecasting. In this paper we compare a well-known and established method, ARMA with exogenous variables with a relatively new technique Gradient Boosting Regression. The method was tested on data from Global Energy Forecasting …
In this paper we consider portmanteau tests for testing the adequacy of multiplicative seasonal autoregressive moving-average (SARMA) models under the assumption that the errors are uncorrelated but not necessarily independent.We relax the standard independence assumption on the error term in order to extend the range …
It is shown that in the multivariate case the orders p, of the AR part, and q, of the MA part, are not invariants of the time series. Thus, it is concluded that it only makes sense to define the class of ARMA(p,p)- irreducible models, where p is the biggest of the system's Kronecker indices. This class is shown not to …
Estimating hidden processes from non-linear noisy observations is particularly difficult when the parameters of these processes are not known. This paper adopts a machine learning approach to devise variational Bayesian inference for such scenarios. In particular, a random process generated by the autoregressive moving…
Machine learning models outperform traditional trading strategies in crude oil markets.
We discuss the probabilistic properties of the variation based third and fourth moments of financial returns as estimators of the actual moments of the return distributions. The moment variations are defined under non-parametric assumptions with quadratic variation method but for the computational tractability, we use …
This paper introduces a clustering framework for networks with nodes annotated with time-series data. The framework addresses all types of network-clustering problems: State clustering, node clustering within states (a.k.a. topology identification or community detection), and even subnetwork-state-sequence identificati…
Generative moment matching networks (GMMNs) are introduced as dependence models for the joint innovation distribution of multivariate time series (MTS). Following the popular copula-GARCH approach for modeling dependent MTS data, a framework based on a GMMN-GARCH approach is presented. First, ARMA-GARCH models are util…
We investigate the relative information efficiency of financial markets by measuring the entropy of the time series of high frequency data. Our tool to measure efficiency is the Shannon entropy, applied to 2-symbol and 3-symbol discretisations of the data. Analysing 1-minute and 5-minute price time series of 55 Exchang…
Shrinkage algorithms are of great importance in almost every area of statistics due to the increasing impact of big data. Especially time series analysis benefits from efficient and rapid estimation techniques such as the lasso. However, currently lasso type estimators for autoregressive time series models still focus …
The paper bounds generalization errors for deep neural networks with Markov datasets.
When stock prices are observed at high frequencies, more information can be utilized in estimation of parameters of the price process. However, high-frequency data are contaminated by the market microstructure noise which causes significant bias in parameter estimation when not taken into account. We propose an estimat…
Methodology to measure lag relevance in time series models.