A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Bayesian model for cost-effectiveness analysis with subgroup discovery.
problem Statistical challenges in cost-effectiveness analysis, especially with non-random treatment assignment and censored data.
method Developed a nonparametric Bayesian model using Dirichlet and Gamma processes to estimate cost-survival distributions and identify cost-effectiveness subgroups.
result Identified and estimated policy-relevant causal CEA estimands using a Bayesian nonparametric g-computation procedure.
There has recently been considerable interest in completing a low-rank matrix or tensor given only a small fraction (or few linear combinations) of its entries. Related approaches have found considerable success in the area of recommender systems, under machine learning. From a statistical estimation point of view, the…
In this paper, we introduce the problem of jointly learning feed-forward neural networks across a set of relevant but diverse datasets. Compared to learning a separate network from each dataset in isolation, joint learning enables us to extract correlated information across multiple datasets to significantly improve th…
We investigate the joint dynamics of spot and implied volatility from an empirical perspective. We focus on the equity market with the SPX Index our underlying of choice. Using only observable quantities, we extract the instantaneous variance curves implied by the market and study their daily variations jointly with sp…
A novel extrapolation method is proposed for longitudinal forecasting. A hierarchical Gaussian process model is used to combine nonlinear population change and individual memory of the past to make prediction. The prediction error is minimized through the hierarchical design. The method is further extended to joint mod…
This paper focusses on "safe" screening techniques for the LASSO problem. Motivated by the need for low-complexity algorithms, we propose a new approach, dubbed "joint" screening test, allowing to screen a set of atoms by carrying out one single test. The approach is particularized to two different sets of atoms, respe…
Joint sparsity regularization in multi-task learning has attracted much attention in recent years. The traditional convex formulation employs the group Lasso relaxation to achieve joint sparsity across tasks. Although this approach leads to a simple convex formulation, it suffers from several issues due to the loosenes…
Common complex diseases are likely influenced by the interplay of hundreds, or even thousands, of genetic variants. Converging evidence shows that genetic variants with low marginal effects (LME) play an important role in disease development. Despite their potential significance, discovering LME genetic variants and as…
First passage models, where corporate assets undergo correlated random walks and a company defaults if its assets fall below a threshold provide an attractive framework for modeling the default process. Typical one year default correlations are small, i.e., of order a few percent, but nonetheless including correlations…
Joint Models for longitudinal and time-to-event data have gained a lot of attention in the last few years as they are a helpful technique to approach common a data structure in clinical studies where longitudinal outcomes are recorded alongside event times. Those two processes are often linked and the two outcomes shou…
TransformerLSR models longitudinal, recurrent, and survival data jointly.
problem Joint modeling of longitudinal measurements, recurrent events, and survival data with dependencies.
method Transformer-based deep learning framework integrating deep temporal point processes and latent structure representation.
result TransformerLSR effectively models all three components simultaneously, demonstrating necessity and effectiveness through simulations and real-world data.
We consider the problem of identifying intermediate variables (or mediators) that regulate the effect of a treatment on a response variable. While there has been significant research on this classical topic, little work has been done when the set of potential mediators is high-dimensional (HD). A further complication a…
In this article, the long-term behavior of the stock market index of the New York Stock Exchange is studied, for the period 1950 to 2013. Specifically, the CRSP Value-Weighted and CRSP Equal-Weighted index are analyzed in terms of market efficiency, using the standard ratio variance test, considering over 1600 one week…
Estimating the difficulty level of math word problems is an important task for many educational applications. Identification of relevant and irrelevant sentences in math word problems is an important step for calculating the difficulty levels of such problems. This paper addresses a novel application of text categoriza…
Current state-of-the-art nonparametric Bayesian text clustering methods model documents through multinomial distribution on bags of words. Although these methods can effectively utilize the word burstiness representation of documents and achieve decent performance, they do not explore the sequential information of text…
Cooperation information sharing is important to theories of human learning and has potential implications for machine learning. Prior work derived conditions for achieving optimal Cooperative Inference given strong, relatively restrictive assumptions. We relax these assumptions by demonstrating convergence for any disc…
Learning network representations is a fundamental task for many graph applications such as link prediction, node classification, graph clustering, and graph visualization. Many real-world networks are interpreted as dynamic networks and evolve over time. Most existing graph embedding algorithms were developed for stati…
We analyse time series of CDS spreads for a set of major US and European institutions on a pe- riod overlapping the recent financial crisis. We extend the existing methodology of ε-drawdowns to the one of joint ε-drawups, in order to estimate the conditional probabilities of abrupt co-movements among spreads. We correc…