A new method improves inference for complex Bayesian models.
problem Bayesian inference for doubly intractable distributions is computationally challenging.
method Monte Carlo Stein variational gradient descent (MC-SVGD) approach.
result The method achieves substantial computational gains over existing algorithms.
Bayesian inference for models that have an intractable partition function is known as a doubly intractable problem, where standard Monte Carlo methods are not applicable. The past decade has seen the development of auxiliary variable Monte Carlo techniques (Møller et al., 2006; Murray et al., 2006) for tackling this pr…
Bayesian inference uses Stein discrepancy for robustness in intractable likelihoods.
problem Intractable likelihoods in Bayesian inference.
method Generalised Bayesian inference with Stein discrepancy as the loss function.
result Robust generalised posteriors with closed form or accessible using MCMC.
Novel MCMC method tackles intractable likelihoods using learned ratio estimators.
problem Posterior inference with intractable likelihoods in complex simulations.
method Amortized approximate ratio estimator embedded in MCMC samplers.
result Effective approximation of likelihood-ratios for sampling from intractable posterior.
Researchers develop a method for statistical inference in models with intractable likelihoods.
problem Statistical inference for models with intractable likelihoods.
method Minimum distance estimators using maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) in reproducing kernel Hilbert space.
result The estimators are consistent, asymptotically normal, and robust to model misspecification.
Develops a new Bayesian inference method for discrete data.
problem Computational challenges in discrete state spaces, especially intractable likelihoods.
method Uses a discrete Fisher divergence to update beliefs about model parameters, circumventing the intractable normalising constant.
result Establishes statistical properties of the generalised posterior and proposes a calibration approach.
Efficient Bayesian decision-making with intractable likelihoods.
problem Bayesian decision-making under intractable likelihoods.
method Learning surrogate models and using simulation-based inference and Bayesian optimization.
result Optimal actions can be learned with fewer simulations than posterior inference.
Develops algorithm to differentiate Metropolis-Hastings for optimization.
problem Optimizing intractable densities with discrete components.
method Fuses stochastic automatic differentiation with Markov chain coupling schemes.
result Unbiased and low-variance gradient estimator for intractable densities.
A large number of statistical models are "doubly-intractable": the likelihood normalising term, which is a function of the model parameters, is intractable, as well as the marginal likelihood (model evidence). This means that standard inference techniques to sample from the posterior, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (…
Generative Bayesian Filtering improves inference in complex models without explicit density evaluations.
problem Performing posterior inference in complex nonlinear and non-Gaussian state-space models.
method Generative Bayesian Filtering (GBF) extends GBC to dynamic settings using deep neural networks for recursive posterior inference. Generative-Gibbs sampler bypasses density evaluations for parameter learning.
result GBF significantly outperforms likelihood-free approaches in accuracy and robustness for intractable state-space models.
A new MCMC method for GPs tackles computational burden and intractable likelihoods.
problem High computational burden and intractable likelihoods in Gaussian process models.
method Combines variationally sparse Gaussian processes with pseudo-marginal MCMC.
result Asymptotically exact inference with computational gains for large datasets.
Paper introduces DLE for efficient inference of intractable models.
problem Intractable likelihood functions in model inference.
method DLE based on Kullback-Leibler divergence minimization and Stein operator.
result DLE can achieve Fisher efficiency under mild conditions.
New method for MCMC models without perfect or sequential samplers.
problem Bayesian inference for complex models with intractable terms.
method Utilizes tractable independence model to construct unbiased estimates.
result Scalable method for high-dimensional models.
Neural network predicts short rate model steps accurately.
problem Predicting intractable short rate model steps.
method Proposes an algorithm using neural networks.
result Achieves superior outcomes compared to unbiased estimate.
How can we perform efficient inference and learning in directed probabilistic models, in the presence of continuous latent variables with intractable posterior distributions, and large datasets? We introduce a stochastic variational inference and learning algorithm that scales to large datasets and, under some mild dif…
We consider the problem of approximate Bayesian parameter inference in non-linear state-space models with intractable likelihoods. Sequential Monte Carlo with approximate Bayesian computations (SMC-ABC) is one approach to approximate the likelihood in this type of models. However, such approximations can be noisy and c…
New SMC samplers improve stochastic optimisation efficiency.
problem Optimizing functions with intractable gradients in machine learning and statistics.
method Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers for stochastic optimisation.
result Significant computational gains achieved with SMC approximations.
A new method for sampling from posterior distributions in Bayesian inverse problems.
problem Sampling from posterior distributions in Bayesian inverse problems is challenging due to intractable terms.
method Proposes a novel approach that decomposes the transitions, allowing a trade-off between complexity of guidance term and prior transitions.
result Validated through experiments on various inverse problems, including challenging cases with latent diffusion models as priors.
NPE improves scalability and efficiency for ERGMs.
problem Scalability and efficiency issues in Bayesian ERGM estimation.
method Neural posterior estimation (NPE) for ERGMs using neural network density estimation.
result NPE provides more efficient and scalable inference for ERGMs.
Top-performing machine learning systems, such as deep neural networks, large ensembles and complex probabilistic graphical models, can be expensive to store, slow to evaluate and hard to integrate into larger systems. Ideally, we would like to replace such cumbersome models with simpler models that perform equally well…
Optimizes experimental designs for intractable models using mutual information bounds.
problem Finding optimal experimental designs for models with intractable data-generating distributions.
method Maximizes mutual information lower bounds parametrized by neural networks, updating network parameters and designs simultaneously.
result Framework enables experimental design for various tasks including parameter estimation and model discrimination.
Paper proposes nested MLMC for SNPE with intractable likelihoods.
problem Estimating posterior distributions from intractable likelihoods.
method Nested MLMC for loss function and gradients, with convergence results.
result Effective methods for approximating complex multimodal posteriors.
A new MCMC method tackles doubly intractable posterior problems.
problem Sampling from complicated distributions with doubly intractable posterior.
method Multi-armed Bandit MCMC (MABMC) algorithm.
result MABMC achieves higher average acceptance probability than existing methods.
Action-BED: Task-Driven Bayesian Experimental Design
problem Bayesian experimental design with doubly intractable objectives
method Formulating BED in terms of expected future loss (EFL) and optimising it with stochastic gradients
result Simplified and task-driven framework for BED
A new sampler tackles high-dimensional models with intractable likelihoods.
problem Statistical inference for models with computationally intractable likelihoods and high-dimensional parameters.
method Likelihood-free approximate Gibbs sampler focusing on lower-dimensional conditional distributions estimated by flexible regression models.
result The sampler enables fitting models with 13,140 parameters that are otherwise impossible with standard ABC techniques.
New framework for variational coresets simplifies Bayesian inference for complex models.
problem Efficient Bayesian inference for complex models like neural networks.
method Black-box variational inference for coresets that handle intractable posterior distributions.
result Principled application of variational coresets to Bayesian neural networks.
Simplifies inference for simulators with or without tractable likelihoods.
problem Inference for models with intractable likelihoods.
method Amortized simulation-based frequentist inference.
result Valid confidence sets for parameter inference.
This paper shows how to perform likelihood inference for complex graphical models efficiently.
problem Intractable normalizing constants in fully and partially observed exponential family graphical models.
method Using a technique from Geyer (1991), the paper estimates the normalizing constant and its gradient.
result Full likelihood-based analysis is feasible and computationally efficient for these models.
Deep learning method for comparing hierarchical models.
problem Intractability of Bayesian model comparison for hierarchical models.
method Amortized inference deep learning method for probabilistic programs.
result Excellent amortized inference across all BMC settings.
New method uses approximate KLD for intractable likelihood models.
problem Designing experiments for models with intractable likelihoods.
method Derive a lower bound of KLD utility, express it in terms of entropies, and evaluate efficiently.
result Demonstrated the performance of the proposed method through numerical examples.
wBSL uses whitening transformations to speed up BSL for intractable likelihood models.
problem Computational demands of Bayesian synthetic likelihood with growing summary statistics.
method Whitening transformations to decorrelate summary statistics.
result Significant reduction in model simulations required for accurate inference.
Neural networks help create summary statistics for complex models.
problem Creating summary statistics for models with intractable likelihood functions.
method Infomax learning with neural networks to maximize mutual information.
result Improves performance of approximate Bayesian computation and neural likelihood methods.
A new method improves Bayesian inference for multimodal posteriors.
problem Insensitivity to well-separated modes in multimodal posteriors.
method Weighted Kernel Stein Discrepancy method.
result Significantly improved mode sensitivity compared to standard KSD-Bayes.
We propose a novel approach to parameter estimation for simulator-based statistical models with intractable likelihood. Our proposed method involves recursive application of kernel ABC and kernel herding to the same observed data. We provide a theoretical explanation regarding why the approach works, showing (for the p…
New method uses neural exponential families for likelihood-free inference.
problem Bayesian Likelihood-Free Inference with intractable likelihood.
method Score Matching neural conditional exponential families for approximate likelihood.
result State-of-the-art performance in posterior sampling for intractable likelihood models.
Investor maximizes utility from an unknown claim using robust optimization.
problem Maximizing utility from an unknown contingent claim.
method Robust optimization with quantile formulation and variational inequalities.
result Optimal trading strategy and utility indifference price determined.
SMC methods approximate intractable Bayesian inference.
problem Approximating intractable Bayesian inference.
method Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods.
result SMC can approximate intractable expectations and normalizing constants.
BSL package simplifies Bayesian synthetic likelihood for complex models.
problem Estimating posterior distributions for models with intractable likelihoods.
method Approximates likelihood via model simulation and density estimation, using penalized covariance and semi-parametric approaches.
result Reduces the need for model simulations and improves efficiency compared to ABC.
Standard maximum likelihood estimation cannot be applied to discrete energy-based models in the general case because the computation of exact model probabilities is intractable. Recent research has seen the proposal of several new estimators designed specifically to overcome this intractability, but virtually nothing i…
ConDiSim uses diffusion models to approximate complex system posteriors efficiently.
problem Simulation-based inference of systems with intractable likelihoods.
method Conditional diffusion model with forward and reverse processes.
result Effective posterior approximation across various benchmark and real-world problems.
Bayesian approach for inhomogeneous Poisson process intensity estimation.
problem Intractable integral in likelihood of Gaussian Cox process.
method Joint modeling of intensity and cumulative intensity as transformed Gaussian process; exact MCMC sampler.
result Exact posterior inference without approximations.
The paper introduces a method for fitting complex models using simulation and optimization.
problem Fitting models with intractable likelihood or moments.
method Sequential sampling and local smoothing, combining global and local search phases.
result The proposed method outperforms alternative approaches in fitting complex models.
SING improves state inference in latent SDE models for better drift function estimation.
problem Intractable posterior inference in latent SDE models.
method Natural gradient variational inference.
result SING provides faster and more reliable inference in latent SDE models.
Undirected graphical models are applied in genomics, protein structure prediction, and neuroscience to identify sparse interactions that underlie discrete data. Although Bayesian methods for inference would be favorable in these contexts, they are rarely used because they require doubly intractable Monte Carlo sampling…
New MCMC methods use auxiliary variables to sample from intractable distributions.
problem Sampling from distributions with unknown normalizing constants.
method Unified Markov chain Monte Carlo framework with auxiliary variables.
result New algorithms outperform existing methods on synthetic and real datasets.
Develops an efficient approximation for collapsed Gibbs sampling in complex models.
problem Intractability of integrating out variables in collapsed Gibbs sampling for complex models.
method Uses expectation propagation to approximate collapsed Gibbs integrals.
result Approximate sampler enables a runtime-accuracy tradeoff in sampling complex models.
Non-convex optimization problems often arise from probabilistic modeling, such as estimation of posterior distributions. Non-convexity makes the problems intractable, and poses various obstacles for us to design efficient algorithms. In this work, we attack non-convexity by first introducing the concept of \emph{probab…
Bayesian design improves by reducing policy training cost.
problem Double intractability in expected information gain limits policy learning.
method Score matching to isolate EIG, then train policy singly intractably.
result Reduced computational burden for policy training, allowing multiple iterations.