A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Improves LSTM performance by initializing states via manifold learning.
For many externally driven complex systems neither the noisy driving force, nor the internal dynamics are a priori known. Here we focus on systems for which the time dependent activity of a large number of components can be monitored, allowing us to separate each signal into a component attributed to the external drivi…
Proposes a framework to predict stock movements by integrating multi-order and internal dynamics.
PenduMAV is a 6-input omnidirectional MAV without internal forces.
This paper develops a dynamic internal fraud model for operational losses in retail banking. It considers public operational losses arising from internal fraud in retail banking within a group of international banks. Additionally, the model takes into account internal factors such as the ethical quality of workers and …
Mathematical model predicts international trade and global economy dynamics.
Random feature maps improve forecasting with cheaper computation.
In today's increasingly international economy, return and volatility spillover effects across international equity markets are major macroeconomic drivers of stock dynamics. Thus, information regarding foreign markets is one of the most important factors in forecasting domestic stock prices. However, the cross-correlat…
Method determines latent dimensionality in international trade flows.
In this article, we investigate whether exchange rate risk is priced. We use a multivariate GARCH-in-Mean specification and test alternative conditional international CAPM versions. Our results support strongly the international asset-pricing model that includes exchange rate risk for both developed and emerging stock …
Model captures neural activity related to behavior while separating internal computations.
The study reveals asymmetries in US financial shocks' international impacts.
Complex behaviors are often driven by an internal model, which integrates sensory information over time and facilitates long-term planning. Inferring an agent's internal model is a crucial ingredient in social interactions (theory of mind), for imitation learning, and for interpreting neural activities of behaving agen…
Paper introduces OMD for ordered state transitions in SSMs.
Paper extends port-Hamiltonian model to include internal energy for compressible and incompressible flow.
Paper predicts international trade flows using machine learning and factorization models.
Neural network models colloidal particle dynamics in non-equilibrium systems.
Researchers develop methods to learn neuron dynamics from colored noise.
New method identifies flawed internal models of the world in animals.
This paper studies four trading algorithms of a professional trader at a multilateral trading facility, observing a realistic two-sided limit order book whose dynamics are driven by the order book events. The identity of the trader can be either internalizing or regular, either a hedge fund or a brokery agency. The spe…
The paper analyzes trade dynamics among G7 countries, revealing unequal exchange and degenerate equilibrium states.
The last decades have not only been characterized by an explosive growth of data, but also an increasing appreciation of data as a valuable resource. Their value comes with the ability to extract meaningful patterns that are of economic, societal or scientific relevance. A particular challenge is the identification of …
Endogenous business cycles explain higher comovement across countries.
Compact models learn photocurrent dynamics from radiation-induced excess carrier density.
We investigated the network structures of the Japanese stock market through the minimum spanning tree. We defined grouping coefficient to test the validity of conventional grouping by industrial categories, and found a decreasing in trend for the coefficient. This phenomenon supports the increasing external influences …
Reinforcement learning methods require careful design involving a reward function to obtain the desired action policy for a given task. In the absence of hand-crafted reward functions, prior work on the topic has proposed several methods for reward estimation by using expert state trajectories and action pairs. However…
A common problem machine learning developers are faced with is overfitting, that is, fitting a pipeline too closely to the training data that the performance degrades for unseen data. Automated machine learning aims to free (or at least ease) the developer from the burden of pipeline creation, but this overfitting prob…
New algorithm converges to optimal filter for predicting linear dynamical systems.
MuZero visualizes its internal representations to stabilize planning.
In order to disentangle the internal dynamics from exogenous factors within the Autoregressive Conditional Duration (ACD) model, we present an effective measure of endogeneity. Inspired from the Hawkes model, this measure is defined as the average fraction of events that are triggered due to internal feedback mechanism…
The paper models foreign capital inflow from the developed to the developing countries in a stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) framework. Under some regularity conditions, the existence of the solutions to the SDP problem is proved and they are then obtained by numerical technique because of the non-linearity of the …
Inferring intent from observed behavior has been studied extensively within the frameworks of Bayesian inverse planning and inverse reinforcement learning. These methods infer a goal or reward function that best explains the actions of the observed agent, typically a human demonstrator. Another agent can use this infer…
This study explains RL training dynamics in LLMs, focusing on token-level optimization and reasoning pattern reshaping.
The utility of learning a dynamics/world model of the environment in reinforcement learning has been shown in a many ways. When using neural networks, however, these models suffer catastrophic forgetting when learned in a lifelong or continual fashion. Current solutions to the continual learning problem require experie…
An internal model of the own body can be assumed a fundamental and evolutionary-early representation as it is present throughout the animal kingdom. Such functional models are, on the one hand, required in motor control, for example solving the inverse kinematic or dynamic task in goal-directed movements or a forward t…
In this paper, we first give the regular point reduction and the two types of Hamilton-Jacobi equation for a regular controlled Hamiltonian (RCH) system with symmetry and momentum map on the generalization of a semidirect product Lie group. Next, as an application of the theoretical results, we consider the underwater …
We consider the machine teaching problem in a classroom-like setting wherein the teacher has to deliver the same examples to a diverse group of students. Their diversity stems from differences in their initial internal states as well as their learning rates. We prove that a teacher with full knowledge about the learnin…
General equilibrium is the dominant theoretical framework for economic policy analysis at the level of the whole economy. In practice, general equilibrium treats economies as being always in equilibrium, albeit in a sequence of equilibria as driven by external changes in parameters. This view is sometimes defended on t…
New moving average adapts weight dynamically based on polynomial and wavefunction.
Tools of the theory of critical phenomena, namely the scaling analysis and universality, are argued to be applicable to large complex web-like network structures. Using a detailed analysis of the real data of the International Trade Network we argue that the scaled link weight distribution has an approximate log-normal…
Survey of recent developments in symmetric reductions and controls for Hamiltonian systems.
New trading strategy beats traditional grid in crypto markets.
This study investigates abrupt learning dynamics in Transformers, revealing plateau formation and internal representation collapse.
Internal Lagrangians derived from variational principles.
New method uncovers small but significant local activities in time-series data.
A new SBM for non-negative zero-inflated edge weights in networks.
Operational risk is the risk relative to monetary losses caused by failures of bank internal processes due to heterogeneous causes. A dynamical model including both spontaneous generation of losses and generation via interactions between different processes is presented; the efforts made by the bank to avoid the occurr…
Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are a vital modeling technique that rely on internal states learned indirectly by optimization of a supervised, unsupervised, or reinforcement training loss. RNNs are used to model dynamic processes that are characterized by underlying latent states whose form is often unknown, precludi…