Bayesian method identifies dynamical models with uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty in selecting governing equations for dynamical systems.
method Bayesian sparse identification with model averaging.
result Accurately recovers sparse interaction structures with uncertainty quantification.
Estimates interactions between modalities for multimodal data.
problem Accurately quantifying interactions between different data types.
method Developed Lightweight Sample-wise Multimodal Interaction (LSMI) estimator using pointwise information theory.
result LSMI reveals fine-grained dynamics in multimodal data.
A framework detects nonlinear and interaction effects in epidemiological data with uncertainty quantification.
problem Lack of reliable inference for ML-discovered nonlinearities and interactions in epidemiological data.
method Combines Bayesian sparse regression, tree ensembles, and Shapley values.
result Valid uncertainty quantification for feature effects at the individual level.
New model quantifies interactions' role in real-world phenomena.
problem Understanding the role of interactions in real-world phenomena.
method Interactive Mixed Membership Stochastic Block Model (IMMSBM).
result Interactions significantly improve model predictive power.
Study quantifies interactions between unlabeled multimodal data.
problem Understanding how modalities combine in semi-supervised settings.
method Information-theoretic definitions and bounds derivation.
result Validated lower and upper bounds accurately track true interactions.
Study improves LLMs for PPI analysis by addressing uncertainty.
problem Uncertainty in LLM predictions for PPIs.
method Fine-tuned LLaMA-3 and BioMedGPT models, LoRA ensembles, Bayesian LoRA for UQ.
result Competitive PPI identification performance across diverse disease contexts.
Probabilistic method combines space and time uncertainties in PDEs.
problem Separate treatment of space and time in PDE solvers obscures interactions and error quantification.
method Gaussian process interpretation of finite difference methods interacting with probabilistic ODE solvers.
result Joint quantification of space- and time-uncertainty possible without sacrificing ODE solver performance.
Emulator speeds up landslide run-out modeling sensitivity analysis.
problem Computational challenges in assessing landslide run-out model sensitivity.
method Gaussian process emulation integrated into r.avaflow.
result Strong interactions detected between friction coefficients and release volume.
Bayesian inference for neural networks improves uncertainty quantification.
problem Improving predictive uncertainty in neural networks.
method Ensemble Kalman filter extensions and interacting particle systems.
result Effective methods for quantifying predictive uncertainty in neural networks.
New algorithm tracks deep RL value functions with uncertainty.
problem Static RL algorithms ignore uncertainty in agent-environment interactions.
method Langevinized Kalman Temporal-Difference (LKTD) algorithm using SGMCMC.
result LKTD algorithm converges to posterior distribution of deep RL parameters.
Unified theory linking Bayesian and ensemble methods in deep learning.
problem Uncertainty quantification in deep learning.
method Reformulating optimisation as convex optimisation in probability measures, studying Wasserstein gradient flows.
result Unified theory explaining success of deep ensembles over variational inference.
The vulnerability to adversarial attacks has been a critical issue for deep neural networks. Addressing this issue requires a reliable way to evaluate the robustness of a network. Recently, several methods have been developed to compute robustness quantification for neural networks, namely, certified lower b…
New method quantifies feature interactions in machine learning models.
problem Capturing high-order interactions and feature contributions in predictive models.
method Information-theoretic approach using Conditional Mutual Information (CMI) via k-NN.
result Accurately recovers feature interactions in synthetic and real-world datasets.
Bayesian pliable lasso with horseshoe prior models interactions in GLMs with missing data.
problem Modeling interactions in sparse regression problems with missing responses.
method Bayesian pliable lasso with hierarchical horseshoe prior for sparsity and uncertainty quantification.
result Advantages over existing methods in recovering complex interaction patterns under incomplete data.
Hybrid model integrates GATv2 and geostatistics for better spatial prediction and uncertainty.
problem Accurate spatial prediction and uncertainty quantification in epidemiology and risk analysis.
method Integrates Graph Attention Network (GATv2) with model-based geostatistics (MBG) to capture relational and spatial dependencies.
result Hybrid model improves predictive accuracy and uncertainty quantification compared to standalone models.
This work advances collaborative decision making by combining human and AI strengths in uncertainty quantification.
problem Current AI lacks robust decision-making capabilities under uncertainty, especially in high-stakes contexts.
method Introduces Human AI Collaborative Uncertainty Quantification (HACUQ) framework, formalizing AI-human collaboration and developing calibration algorithms.
result Optimal collaborative prediction sets follow a two-threshold structure, and online adaptation algorithms can adapt to evolving human behavior.
A Gaussian Process Ordinary Differential Equation framework for large continuous dynamical systems
problem Forecasting complex dynamical systems
method Kernel autonomous ODE approach based on Gaussian Processes and Quadratic Order Model Reduction
result Full model outperforms ROM methods in terms of accuracy or computational costs
Bayesian adaptive PCE method improves surrogate modeling and sensitivity analysis.
problem Lack of fully Bayesian PCE methods in statistics.
method Developed a novel fully Bayesian adaptive PCE method with R implementation.
result Bayesian adaptive PCE provides competitive performance for various UQ tasks.
Discovering interaction effects on a response of interest is a fundamental problem faced in biology, medicine, economics, and many other scientific disciplines. In theory, Bayesian methods for discovering pairwise interactions enjoy many benefits such as coherent uncertainty quantification, the ability to incorporate b…
Enhances clinical trial predictions by quantifying uncertainty.
problem Uncertainty in medical diagnosis and drug discovery predictions.
method Selective classification integrated with Hierarchical Interaction Network (HINT).
result Significant improvement in PR-AUC, F1, ROC-AUC, and overall accuracy.
Deep fundamental factor models are developed to automatically capture non-linearity and interaction effects in factor modeling. Uncertainty quantification provides interpretability with interval estimation, ranking of factor importances and estimation of interaction effects. With no hidden layers we recover a linear fa…
The paper proposes a GP-based method for discovering second-order particle dynamics models.
problem Discovering a general second-order particle-based model for agent interactions.
method Gaussian Process-based approach integrating two independent GP priors on latent interaction kernels.
result The method learns effective nonlinear dynamics representations from small data sets.
Efficient BNNs learn latent distributions for robust uncertainty quantification.
problem Improving robustness and uncertainty of deep neural networks.
method LP-BNN uses VAEs to learn latent distributions of BNN parameters, enabling efficient ensembles.
result LP-BNN achieves competitive results in image classification, semantic segmentation, and out-of-distribution detection.
Federated Granger causality learns reliable interactions without sharing data.
problem Uncertainty in federated Granger causality estimates.
method Closed-form covariance recursions and spectral-radius-based convergence conditions.
result Uncertainty depends only on client data statistics and is independent of model parameters.
New methods improve Laplace approximations for deep neural networks by selecting key parameters.
problem Improving uncertainty quantification in deep neural networks using computationally feasible approximations.
method Gradient-Laplace and Greedy-Laplace methods for selecting parameters in sub-network Laplace approximations.
result Gradient-Laplace method outperforms existing heuristic approaches and provides formal optimality guarantees.
Validates network bootstraps for uncertainty quantification in network visualisation.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in network embeddings when only a single observation is available.
method Statistical indistinguishable embeddings using k-nearest neighbour smoothing, validated by an exchangeable network test.
result Proposes a principled, distribution-free network bootstrap that passes the exchangeable network test.
Global sensitivity analysis improves BNN hyperparameter selection for accurate uncertainty quantification.
problem Difficulties in obtaining accurate uncertainty quantification with Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs).
method Global sensitivity analysis of BNN performance under varying hyperparameter settings.
result Many hyperparameters interact to affect both predictive accuracy and uncertainty quantification.
Regression trees learn gradients of differentiable functions.
problem Understanding gradients of differentiable functions using regression trees.
method Developed a method to estimate gradients of differentiable functions using regression trees and exposed quantities from tree learning libraries.
result Gradient estimates from regression trees can be used to improve predictive analysis and solve tasks in uncertainty quantification.
ConformalHDC improves HDC's uncertainty quantification for neuromorphic learning.
problem Lack of rigorous uncertainty quantification in Hyperdimensional Computing.
method Combines conformal prediction with HDC's efficiency, proposing set-valued and point-valued formulations.
result Demonstrates improved robustness and accuracy in decoding neural stimulus information.
Targeting a better understanding of credit market dynamics, the authors have studied a stochastic model named the Hawkes process. Describing trades arrival times, this kind of model allows for the capture of self-excitement and mutual interactions phenomena. The authors propose here a simple yet conclusive method for f…
Bayesian inference learns free energy landscapes from experimental data.
problem Characterize the free energy landscape of classical many-body systems from experimental data.
method Combines non-parametric Bayesian inference with physically-motivated constraints to automate the construction of approximate free energy functionals.
result Inference algorithms yield a probability distribution over free energy functionals, leading to highly accurate analytic expressions.
New method improves uncertainty estimation in complex statistical models.
problem Challenges in estimating high-dimensional mixed models due to computational complexity.
method Partially factorized variational inference to relax mean-field assumption.
result Relaxed variational inference provides accurate uncertainty quantification without high computational cost.
HistNetQ improves quantification tasks by optimizing loss functions and eliminating label requirements.
problem Quantification of class prevalence in bags of examples.
method Permutation-invariant Histograms and deep neural networks.
result HistNetQ outperforms other quantification methods and optimizes custom loss functions.
Quantification is a supervised learning task that consists in predicting, given a set of classes C and a set D of unlabelled items, the prevalence (or relative frequency) p(c|D) of each class c in C. Quantification can in principle be solved by classifying all the unlabelled items and counting how many of them have bee…
The paper learns particle swarming models from data using Gaussian processes.
problem Understanding the link between individual interaction rules and swarming behavior.
method Proposes a learning approach using Gaussian processes to model latent radial interaction functions and scalar parameters in non-collective friction forces.
result Establishes that a coercivity condition is sufficient for recoverability and provides a finite-sample analysis showing optimal convergence rates.
In recent years, deep learning has proven to be a viable methodology for surrogate modeling and uncertainty quantification for a vast number of physical systems. However, in their traditional form, such models can require a large amount of training data. This is of particular importance for various engineering and scie…
Proposes a probabilistic framework for smart contract risk quantification.
problem Quantifying financial risk of smart contract cyber attacks and failures.
method Probabilistic graph-theoretical framework using bond percolation models.
result Analytical results and numerical examples for aggregate loss distribution.
Fortuna simplifies uncertainty quantification in deep learning.
problem Improving uncertainty estimates in deep learning models.
method Supports various calibration techniques including conformal prediction and scalable Bayesian inference.
result Simplifies benchmarking and builds robust AI systems.
\emph{Sentiment Quantification} (i.e., the task of estimating the relative frequency of sentiment-related classes -- such as \textsf{Positive} and \textsf{Negative} -- in a set of unlabelled documents) is an important topic in sentiment analysis, as the study of sentiment-related quantities and trends across a populati…
New method detects and measures malicious users in recommendation algorithms.
problem Identifying and quantifying malicious user activity in recommendation systems.
method Probabilistic programming for a disentangled model of malicious and regular user behavior.
result Simulation-based measure for quantifying malicious user effects.
Bayesian inference reconstructs external potentials in DFT for many-particle systems.
problem Reconstructing external potentials in classical density-functional theory (DFT) for many-particle systems.
method Combines Bayesian inference with classical DFT to probabilistically reconstruct external potentials.
result Accurately infers external potentials and density profiles with uncertainty quantification.
Enformer and GEnformer use Transformers with stochastic learning to forecast multivariate and spatiotemporal data with uncertainty.
problem Uncertainty quantification in multivariate time series and spatiotemporal forecasting.
method Synthesizing Transformer's expressive power with stochastic learning to model conditional distributions directly.
result Enformer and GEnformer yield calibrated probabilistic forecasts and outperform state-of-the-art baselines.
Bayesian meta learning improves uncertainty quantification in regression.
problem Trusting uncertainty quantification in Bayesian regression.
method Trust-Bayes framework for Bayesian meta learning, optimizing for trustworthy uncertainty quantification.
result Lower bounds and sample complexity for trustworthy uncertainty quantification are characterized.
Develops a Bayesian model to predict business revenue and demand.
problem Estimating revenue and demand at business facilities.
method Variational Bayesian spatial interaction model (BSIM) with scalable inference.
result BSIM outperforms competing approaches in predicting pub revenue and demand.
Based on the assumption that economic complexity is characterised by the interactions of economic agents (who) constantly change their actions and strategies in response to the outcome they mutually create, this paper presents how network models can be used a proxies for the mapping, quantification and analysis of Roma…
Bayesian approach quantifies uncertainty in LLM evaluations.
problem Statistical uncertainty in evaluating LLM behavior.
method Bayesian evaluation of LLM behavior using probabilistic text generation strategies.
result Bayesian approach provides useful uncertainty quantification about LLM behavior.
Study improves neural network calibration for drug discovery.
problem Improper calibration of neural network predictions in drug discovery.
method Compared different metrics for model hyperparameter tuning and proposed Bayesian Linear Probing (BLP) method.
result Bayesian Linear Probing (BLP) improves model calibration and accuracy.
Bayesian uncertainty quantification is flawed, according to new research.
problem Flawed interpretation of Bayesian uncertainty quantification.
method Discussion of Bayesian updating and optimization-based perspective, proposing measures of quality.
result Bayesian uncertainty quantification is not coherent with optimization-based perspective.