A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Intensity augmentation improves breast MRI segmentation accuracy.
Supervised deep learning methods for segmentation require large amounts of labelled training data, without which they are prone to overfitting, not generalizing well to unseen images. In practice, obtaining a large number of annotations from clinical experts is expensive and time-consuming. One way to address scarcity …
Paper uses deep learning to detect cyclone rapid intensification.
Bayesian approach for inhomogeneous Poisson process intensity estimation.
This paper revisits the distribution gap between clean and augmented data in deep learning.
Efficient inference for nonparametric Hawkes processes using Pólya-Gamma augmentation.
SBA improves neural network generalization by dynamically augmenting data.
Corporate defaults may be triggered by some major market news or events such as financial crises or collapses of major banks or financial institutions. With a view to develop a more realistic model for credit risk analysis, we introduce a new type of reduced-form intensity-based model that can incorporate the impacts o…
We propose a simulation method for multidimensional Hawkes processes based on superposition theory of point processes. This formulation allows us to design efficient simulations for Hawkes processes with differing exponentially decaying intensities. We demonstrate that inter-arrival times can be decomposed into simpler…
Machine Learning is proving invaluable across disciplines. However, its success is often limited by the quality and quantity of available data, while its adoption by the level of trust that models afford users. Human vs. machine performance is commonly compared empirically to decide whether a certain task should be per…
Contrastive learning benefits from generated data but can be harmed by it too.
DARL uses DDPMs to generate synthetic market crash scenarios for robust portfolio optimization.
We present an approximate Bayesian inference approach for estimating the intensity of an inhomogeneous Poisson process, where the intensity function is modelled using a Gaussian process (GP) prior via a sigmoid link function. Augmenting the model using a latent marked Poisson process and Pólya--Gamma random variables w…
The purpose of this study is to estimate the production function and examine the structure of production in the mining sector of Iran. Several studies have already been conducted in estimating production functions of various economic sectors; however, less attention has been paid to mining sectors. After examining the …
AGML model improves indoor localization with sparse fingerprints using meta-learning and graph neural networks.
Paper proposes a data augmentation method for LLM-generated data in market research.
Neural Diffusion Intensity Models simplify Cox processes inference.
We propose a scalable framework for inference in an inhomogeneous Poisson process modeled by a continuous sigmoidal Cox process that assumes the corresponding intensity function is given by a Gaussian process (GP) prior transformed with a scaled logistic sigmoid function. We present a tractable representation of the li…
The risk-neutral option pricing method under GARCH intensity model is examined. The GARCH intensity model incorporates the characteristics of financial return series such as volatility clustering, leverage effect and conditional asymmetry. The GARCH intensity option pricing model has flexibility in changing the volatil…
Method uses deep learning to estimate traffic intensity.
PCA reduces language model embeddings to improve speed and memory efficiency.
A new kernel method improves Poisson process intensity estimation.
Proposes a method to balance imbalanced image datasets using capsule-GAN.
Study identifies two borrowing patterns in UK payday loan users.
Conditional generative adversarial networks (cGAN) have led to large improvements in the task of conditional image generation, which lies at the heart of computer vision. The major focus so far has been on performance improvement, while there has been little effort in making cGAN more robust to noise. The regression (o…
Model predicts bid and ask price dynamics with spread-dependent intensities.
This paper discusses properties of a Doubly Stochastic Poisson Process (DSPP) where the intensity process belongs to a class of affine diffusions. For any intensity process from this class we derive an analytical expression for probability distribution functions of the corresponding DSPP. A specification of our results…
We provide analytical pricing formula of corporate defaultable bond with both expected and unexpected default in the case with stochastic default intensity. In the case with constant short rate and exogenous default recovery using PDE method, we gave some pricing formula of the defaultable bond under the conditions tha…
New models directly model inter-event times without intensity functions.
We propose a novel method for automatic pain intensity estimation from facial images based on the framework of kernel Conditional Ordinal Random Fields (KCORF). We extend this framework to account for heteroscedasticity on the output labels(i.e., pain intensity scores) and introduce a novel dynamic features, dynamic ra…
The paper analyzes multivariate Hawkes processes and their induced population processes.
The behavioral dynamics of multi-agent systems have a rich and orderly structure, which can be leveraged to understand these systems, and to improve how artificial agents learn to operate in them. Here we introduce Relational Forward Models (RFM) for multi-agent learning, networks that can learn to make accurate predic…
New method models intensity functions on spheres using normalizing flows.
Neural networks learn distance-based representations, not just intensity.
New findings allow infinite mean intensity Hawkes processes to be stable.
We introduce a Cox-type model for relative intensities of orders flows in a limit order book. The model assumes that all intensities share a common baseline intensity, which may for example represent the global market activity. Parameters can be estimated by quasi likelihood maximization, without any interference from …
The present paper introduces a jump-diffusion extension of the classical diffusion default intensity model by means of subordination in the sense of Bochner. We start from the bi-variate process of a diffusion state variable driving default intensity and a default indicator process and time change it wi…
Developing a semi-analytical approximation for general default intensity models
New method models MTPP without predefined intensity functions.
We introduce a Markovian single point process model, with random intensity regulated through a buffer mechanism and a self-exciting effect controlling the arrival stream to the buffer. The model applies the principle of the Hawkes process in which point process jumps generate a shot-noise intensity field. Unlike the Ha…
It is well-known from the work of Schönbucher (2005) that the marginal laws of a loss process can be matched by a unit increasing time inhomogeneous Markov process, whose deterministic jump intensity is called local intensity. The Stochastic Local Intensity (SLI) models such as the one proposed by Arnsdorf and Halperin…
The growing interest in both the automation of machine learning and deep learning has inevitably led to the development of a wide variety of automated methods for neural architecture search. The choice of the network architecture has proven to be critical, and many advances in deep learning spring from its immediate im…
A temporal point process is a mathematical model for a time series of discrete events, which covers various applications. Recently, recurrent neural network (RNN) based models have been developed for point processes and have been found effective. RNN based models usually assume a specific functional form for the time c…
Study examines how data augmentation impacts optimization in linear regression.
Data augmentation doesn't improve robustness, contrary to belief.
For a congruence of straight lines defined by a hypersurface in and a field of reflected directions created by a point source we define the notion of intensity in a tangent direction and introduce elementary symmetric functions of {\it principal intensities}. The problem of exi…
This paper improves auto-augment efficiency by sharing augmentation weights.
In this paper we consider a reduced-form intensity-based credit risk model with a hidden Markov state process. A filtering method is proposed for extracting the underlying state given the observation processes. The method may be applied to a wide range of problems. Based on this model, we derive the joint distribution …