A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Paper uses deep learning to detect cyclone rapid intensification.
Tropical cyclone wind-intensity prediction is a challenging task considering drastic changes climate patterns over the last few decades. In order to develop robust prediction models, one needs to consider different characteristics of cyclones in terms of spatial and temporal characteristics. Transfer learning incorpora…
AI helps forecasters understand TC convective evolution before intensification.
Paper proposes a method for estimating tropical cyclone intensity distribution using deep learning.
The forecast of tropical cyclone trajectories is crucial for the protection of people and property. Although forecast dynamical models can provide high-precision short-term forecasts, they are computationally demanding, and current statistical forecasting models have much room for improvement given that the database of…
Paper examines adversarial attacks on weather forecasting models, focusing on TC trajectory prediction.
New method predicts spatial events like hurricanes and earthquakes with uncertainty.
New method detects TC imagery patterns for rapid intensity change.
Rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones often causes major destruction to human civilization due to short response time. It is an important yet challenging task to accurately predict this kind of extreme weather event in advance. Traditionally, meteorologists tackle the task with human-driven feature extraction…
Paper improves predictive distributions for rare events using a simple framework.
New method models intensity functions on spheres using normalizing flows.
The paper introduces diagnostic transport maps to improve the reliability of rare event predictions.
A new method selects robust features for ML models using causal discovery.
In this article we show the relationship between the Pareto distribution and the gamma distribution. This shows that the second one, appropriately extended, explains some anomalies that arise in the practical use of extreme value theory. The results are useful to certain phenomena that are fitted by the Pareto distribu…
Hurricanes are cyclones circulating about a defined center whose closed wind speeds exceed 75 mph originating over tropical and subtropical waters. At landfall, hurricanes can result in severe disasters. The accuracy of predicting their trajectory paths is critical to reduce economic loss and save human lives. Given th…
Then detection and identification of extreme weather events in large-scale climate simulations is an important problem for risk management, informing governmental policy decisions and advancing our basic understanding of the climate system. Recent work has shown that fully supervised convolutional neural networks (CNNs…