Integrates prediction models into portfolio optimization for better asset allocation.
problem Traditional portfolio optimization ignores prediction models, leading to suboptimal decisions.
method Developed a framework that combines regression prediction with mean-variance optimization, providing analytical solutions and neural-network-based optimization for inequality constraints.
result Demonstrated through simulations that integrating prediction models improves portfolio performance.
Optimizes hedging strategy using Fourier-integration for variance-optimality.
problem Finding optimal hedging strategy under variance-optimality criterion.
method General representations and Fourier-integration for Heston model; sparse hedging selection.
result Sparse semi-static hedging strategy using Fourier-integration.
PS-IG improves feature attribution by reducing noise and variance.
problem Improving feature attribution in machine learning models.
method Path-sampled integrated gradients (PS-IG) computes expected value over sampled baselines.
result PS-IG reduces attribution variance by a factor of 1/3 under uniform sampling.
Paper explores robust regression methods and their bias-variance trade-off.
problem Understanding the trade-off between robust estimation and optimization methods.
method Examines traditional outlier-resistant robust estimation and robust optimization.
result Both methods follow converse strategies due to a bias-variance trade-off.
This paper presents a novel approach for approximate integration over the uncertainty of noise and signal variances in Gaussian process (GP) regression. Our efficient and straightforward approach can also be applied to integration over input dependent noise variance (heteroscedasticity) and input dependent signal varia…
Efficiently simulates SABR model with novel sampling methods.
problem Sampling integrated variance and terminal forward price in SABR model.
method Moment-matched shifted lognormal approximation for integrated variance, CEV approximation for terminal forward price.
result Enhanced simulation scheme is highly efficient, accurate, and reliable.
Proposes neural networks for variance reduction in Monte Carlo estimation.
problem High variance in Monte Carlo estimations for complex functions.
method Uses neural networks to learn control variates from auxiliary random variables.
result Significant variance reduction in thermodynamic integration and reinforcement learning.
Normal distributions ensure asymptotic variance reduction in moment matching Monte Carlo.
problem Asymptotic variance reduction in general integration problems.
method Characterization of conditions for asymptotic variance reduction using normal distributions.
result Asymptotic variance reduction is guaranteed for normal distributions in moment matching Monte Carlo.
Efficiently designs experiments without integrating posterior distributions.
problem Computational inefficiency in Bayesian experimental design for PDE-based models.
method Likelihood-free approach using ANN to approximate conditional expectation.
result Significant reduction in observation model evaluations.
This paper generalizes beta divergence beyond its classical form associated with power variance functions of Tweedie models. Generalized form is represented by a compact definite integral as a function of variance function of the exponential dispersion model. This compact integral form simplifies derivations of many pr…
We present a set of log-price integrated variance estimators, equal to the sum of open-high-low-close bridge estimators of spot variances within n subsequent time-step intervals. The main characteristics of some of the introduced estimators is to take into account the information on the occurrence times of the high a…
Meta-CVs leverage task similarity to reduce variance with limited data.
problem Reducing variance in Monte Carlo estimators with few samples.
method Meta-learning control variates for related tasks.
result Meta-CVs lead to significant variance reduction in settings with limited data.
The alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) is a powerful optimization solver in machine learning. Recently, stochastic ADMM has been integrated with variance reduction methods for stochastic gradient, leading to SAG-ADMM and SDCA-ADMM that have fast convergence rates and low iteration complexities. However,…
The aim of this article is to design a moment transformation for Student- t distributed random variables, which is able to account for the error in the numerically computed mean. We employ Student-t process quadrature, an instance of Bayesian quadrature, which allows us to treat the integral itself as a random variable…
New estimators reduce variance in training variational autoencoders with discrete latent variables.
problem Training variational autoencoders with discrete latent variables requires efficient gradient estimation.
method Introduce ReinMax-Rao and ReinMax-CV estimators using Rao-Blackwellisation and control variates.
result Demonstrate superior performance on training variational autoencoders with discrete latent spaces.
NCV uses neural networks to improve Monte Carlo integration.
problem Improving variance reduction in parametric Monte Carlo integration.
method NCV combines a normalizing flow and a neural network to approximate the integrand and solve the integral equation, with a neural importance sampler to estimate the difference.
result NCV achieves state-of-the-art performance in light transport simulation with reduced noise and negligible bias.
ARM estimator improves gradient backpropagation in binary networks.
problem Improving gradient backpropagation through stochastic binary layers.
method ARM estimator using augment-REINFORCE-merge approach.
result ARM estimator achieves state-of-the-art performance in binary models.
We consider a square-integrable semimartingale and investigate the convex order relations between its discrete, continuous and predictable quadratic variation. As the main results, we show that if the semimartingale has conditionally independent increments and symmetric jump measure, then its discrete realized variance…
The paper explores the trade-off between bias and variance in high-dimensional models.
problem Understanding the unavoidable trade-off between bias and variance in high-dimensional statistical models.
method Proposes a general strategy to obtain lower bounds on the variance of estimators with a specified bias, and applies it to various statistical models.
result Shows the extent to which the bias-variance trade-off is unavoidable and quantifies the performance loss for methods that do not balance it.
Enhances option pricing for American-style options using JDOI method.
problem Pricing American-style options efficiently under stochastic volatility.
method Extends DOI variance reduction technique to Lévy dynamics, combining with LSMC.
result Strong variance reduction in option pricing compared to standard LSMC.
The article prices exchange options using variance gamma-like models.
problem Pricing exchange options under specific stochastic processes.
method Derives formulas for variance gamma and variance gamma++ processes, constructs multidimensional versions, calibrates parameters with real data.
result Closed formulas and numerical methods for evaluating exchange options.
Paper proposes adaptive parameter selection for KGD algorithms.
problem Improving parameter selection for kernel-based gradient descent.
method Integrates bias-variance analysis with splitting method, introduces empirical effective dimension.
result Adaptive parameter selection strategy achieves optimal generalization error bound.
Develops a GMM method to estimate roughness in stochastic volatility models.
problem Estimating roughness in stochastic volatility models with fractional Brownian motion.
method GMM approach for log-normal models with integrated variance and noisy realized variance.
result Consistent and asymptotically normal parameter estimator with bias correction.
Study improves variance calculation for random zero sets on complex manifolds.
problem Improving the variance calculation for random zero sets on complex manifolds.
method Deriving an asymptotic expansion for the variance of linear statistics of zero divisors of random holomorphic sections.
result Sharpens leading-order asymptotics for the variance of random zero sets.
Conditional Leibniz Derivative Estimation reduces variance in stochastic models.
problem Estimating derivatives in stochastic models with discontinuous sample performance.
method Combining push-out likelihood ratio method with Leibniz integral rules.
result Conditional Leibniz estimator reduces variance and is easy to implement.
Thermodynamic integration (TI) for computing marginal likelihoods is based on an inverse annealing path from the prior to the posterior distribution. In many cases, the resulting estimator suffers from high variability, which particularly stems from the prior regime. When comparing complex models with differences in a …
Novel estimator reduces diffusion model variance.
problem High variance in score function estimation for diffusion models.
method Uses nearest neighbour samples to estimate the score function.
result Significant decrease in variance, leading to improved model performance.
MEVA aggregates model predictions to improve accuracy without needing model details.
problem Improving model accuracy by combining multiple models.
method Non-intrusive, data-driven framework that treats models as black boxes and optimizes aggregation methods.
result MVA outperforms MEA in estimating aggregated predictions, enhancing robustness and accuracy.
This paper optimizes cryptocurrency portfolios by integrating sentiment analysis with technical indicators.
problem Effective portfolio management in volatile cryptocurrency markets.
method Dynamic portfolio strategy using technical indicators and sentiment analysis.
result The integrated approach outperforms traditional benchmarks and achieves stronger risk-adjusted returns.
Paper solves a complex portfolio selection problem with time-inconsistent preferences.
problem Time-inconsistent preferences in portfolio selection.
method Unified framework with minimal assumptions, proving existence and uniqueness of solution.
result Existence and uniqueness of square-integrable solution for the integral equation.
Improved option pricing for SABR model using Gauss-Hermite quadrature.
problem Improving accuracy of option pricing in the SABR model.
method Using Gauss-Hermite quadrature for numerical integration of the integrated variance.
result New method provides accurate option prices across all strike prices.
Efficiently simulates the Heston model with large time steps using a novel method.
problem Challenges in simulating the Heston model with large time steps.
method Implicit integrated variance scheme exploiting the near-linear nature between stochastic driver and conditional integrated variance process.
result Achieves near-exact accuracy with coarse discretizations, efficient for large time steps.
VRER selectively reuses past observations to reduce variance in policy optimization.
problem Lack of effective experience replay for accelerating policy optimization in complex systems.
method Variance Reduction Experience Replay (VRER) framework that selectively reuses informative samples.
result VRER reduces gradient variance and improves policy learning over state-of-the-art algorithms.
Paper introduces a new volatility estimator for jump-diffusion models.
problem Disentangling integrated variance from total process quadratic variation.
method Order statistics approach to estimate time-varying volatility and jumps.
result Empirical tests show improved Value at Risk forecasting.
New method speeds up CEV option pricing for small maturities.
problem High computational times for CEV option pricing, especially for small maturities.
method Semiclassical approximation of Feynman's path integral.
result The new method is efficient and accurate compared to standard CEV solution.
Two surfaces minimize variance of Gaussian curvature.
problem Minimizing the variance of Gaussian curvature on triply periodic minimal surfaces.
method Interpreting branch values of Gauss map, expressing variance as integrals of exponentials of Green's functions, analyzing Hessian.
result The P and D surfaces are local minimizers of the variance of Gaussian curvature.
Paper improves volatility estimation using a Queue-Reactive model.
problem Volatility estimation from high-frequency data is biased by microstructure noise.
method Uses Queue-Reactive model of limit order book to improve volatility estimation.
result Unified and alternation estimators lead to optimal mean squared error for integrated volatility.
We consider a Poisson process η on a measurable space $(\BY,\mathcal{Y})$ equipped with a partial ordering, assumed to be strict almost everwhwere with respect to the intensity measure λ of η. We give a Clark-Ocone type formula providing an explicit representation of square integrable martingales (defined with re…
A novel k-NN method estimates conditional mean and variance efficiently.
problem Joint estimation of conditional mean and variance.
method Integrates k-NN with automated variance selection.
result Achieves fast convergence rates and improved precision.
DSI improves tail-risk estimation in generative models by averaging checkpoints.
problem Generative models' instability in rare adverse scenarios.
method Diachronic Sample Integration (DSI) ensembles generated samples across checkpoints.
result DSI reduces tail-estimation error compared to single-checkpoint baselines.
Develops a neural surrogate for proton dose calculation using Monte Carlo dropout uncertainty.
problem Computational demand in proton therapy workflows requiring repeated evaluations.
method Integrates Monte Carlo dropout into a neural network surrogate for fast, differentiable dose predictions and uncertainty quantification.
result Shows significant speedups over MC while retaining uncertainty information.
Monte Carlo (MC) techniques are often used to estimate integrals of a multivariate function using randomly generated samples of the function. In light of the increasing interest in uncertainty quantification and robust design applications in aerospace engineering, the calculation of expected values of such functions (e…
New optimizer MARS-M combines variance reduction with Muon for faster LLM training.
problem Training large-scale neural networks efficiently.
method Integrates MARS variance reduction with Muon optimizer.
result MARS-M converges to a first-order stationary point at a rate of ildeO(T−1/3). Unified model combines shrinkage, views, and factor models for better portfolio selection.
problem Limitations of mean-variance analysis, estimation errors, and reliance on historical data.
method Bayesian approach integrating shrinkage estimation and Black-Litterman model with Fama-French factor models.
result The model outperforms simple and sample-based optimal portfolios in US equity market.
We use neural networks as control variates with geometric integration techniques.
problem Analytic integration of neural network approximations for variance reduction.
method Integration domain subdivision using computational geometry for MLPs with continuous piecewise linear activation functions.
result Neural networks can be used as control variates with geometric integration methods.
We introduce a method that uses the Cauchy-Crofton formula and a new curvature formula from integral geometry to reweight the sampling probabilities of Metropolis-within-Gibbs algorithms in order to increase their convergence speed. We consider algorithms that sample from a probability density conditioned on a manifold…
The paper proves the law of one price in a continuous-time setting without friction.
problem Identifying conditions under which the law of one price holds in a continuous-time setting without frictions.
method Formulating a new mechanism for LOP failure and proving a novel variant of the uniform boundedness principle.
result Establishes the equivalence of the economic concept of LOP with the probabilistic property of the existence of a local $\scr{E}$-martingale state price density.
The paper studies random systems of holomorphic sections on compact Kähler manifolds and proves equidistribution results.
problem Estimating the distribution of zeros of random holomorphic sections on compact Kähler manifolds.
method Asymptotic variance estimate for smooth linear statistics, equidistribution result derivation.
result Smooth positive closed form ω^k can be approximated by currents of integration along analytic subsets of X.