We create a formal framework for the design of informative securities in prediction markets. These securities allow a market organizer to infer the likelihood of events of interest as well as if he knew all of the traders' private signals. We consider the design of markets that are always informative, markets that are …
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48 results for “informed participants”
Paper proposes MMVFL for multi-class VFL with multiple participants.
problem Privacy-preserving multi-class VFL with multiple participants.
method Extends multi-view learning to enable label sharing among multiple VFL participants.
result MMVFL effectively shares label information among multiple VFL participants and matches multi-class classification performance.
Federated learning leaks participant dataset quality even with secure aggregation.
problem Leakage of participant dataset quality in federated learning with secure aggregation.
method Image recognition experiments to infer and attribute dataset quality.
result Relative quality ordering of participants can be inferred and used for various purposes.
Informed Tradersq-fin.TR
An asymmetric information model is introduced for the situation in which there is a small agent who is more susceptible to the flow of information in the market than the general market participant, and who tries to implement strategies based on the additional information. In this model market participants have access t…
Limit Order Book (LOB) shape modeling in presence of heterogeneously informed market participantsq-fin.TR
Paper models limit order book with informed traders and market makers.
problem Modeling the limit order book with heterogeneous market participants.
method Agent-based model with four types of participants: informed traders, noise traders, informed market makers, and noise market makers. Based on Glosten-Milgrom and Huang-Rosenbaum-Saliba approaches.
result Derived the static limit order book characteristics and compared them with existing models.
This work analyzes generalization in federated learning using information theory.
problem Generalization performance in federated learning is less explored compared to centralized learning.
method The work applies an information-theoretic analysis via the conditional mutual information (CMI) framework to study federated learning's two-level generalization.
result The work derives multiple CMI-based bounds, including hypothesis-based CMI bounds and fast-rate evaluated CMI bounds, which improve convergence rates for specific model aggregation strategies and structured loss functions.
New method identifies informed traders in prediction markets.
problem How information is incorporated into market prices is unknown.
method Kyle model applied to field experiment prediction market data.
result Traders with significant price impact are identified as informed.
We propose a latent self-exciting point process model that describes geographically distributed interactions between pairs of entities. In contrast to most existing approaches that assume fully observable interactions, here we consider a scenario where certain interaction events lack information about participants. Ins…
In the Pioneer 100 (P100) Wellness Project (Price and others, 2017), multiple types of data are collected on a single set of healthy participants at multiple timepoints in order to characterize and optimize wellness. One way to do this is to identify clusters, or subgroups, among the participants, and then to tailor pe…
SPAC data shows premium investors get better terms, non-premium get quid pro quo deals.
problem Agency problems and informational frictions in securities issuance.
method Analysis of SPAC data to identify premium and non-premium investors.
result Non-premium investors engage in quid pro quo relationships with issuers and intermediaries.
Bayesian framework explains price formation with learning and market impact.
problem Understanding how prices form in markets with informed participants.
method Introduces a Bayesian model for updating priors on efficient prices.
result Exponential intensities for aggressive order arrivals are a natural outcome.
Study uses ML to predict non-participation in ELSA COVID-19 follow-up studies.
problem Predicting non-participation in follow-up surveys due to various factors.
method Used machine learning algorithms including KNN, RF, AdaBoost, logistic regression, NN, and SVC.
result Random Forest (RF) outperforms other models in balanced accuracy.
Artemis framework improves distributed learning with bidirectional compression and partial participation.
problem Learning in distributed or federated settings with communication constraints and device partial participation.
method Artemis framework using bidirectional compression, memory mechanism, and Polyak-Ruppert averaging.
result Fast rates of convergence (linear up to a threshold) under weak assumptions on stochastic gradients.
Forecasting Uncertain Events with Small Groupscond-mat.stat-mech
We present a novel methodology for predicting future outcomes that uses small numbers of individuals participating in an imperfect information market. By determining their risk attitudes and performing a nonlinear aggregation of their predictions, we are able to assess the probability of the future outcome of an uncert…
In this paper, we study a continuous time structural asset value model for two correlated firms using a two-dimensional Brownian motion. We consider the situation of incomplete information, where the information set available to the market participants includes the default time of each firm and the periodic asset value…
The article describes our submission to SemEval 2019 Task 8 on Fact-Checking in Community Forums. The systems under discussion participated in Subtask A: decide whether a question asks for factual information, opinion/advice or is just socializing. Our primary submission was ranked as the second one among all participa…
This research improves interpretability in sequential explanations using mental models.
problem Improving interpretability in sequential explanations between two parties.
method A reinforcement learning framework that selects explanations based on the explainee's mental model.
result Mental model-based policies increase interpretability over random selection in multiple sequential explanations.
New methods improve subgroup analysis in trials with limited data.
problem Limited sample sizes in subgroup analyses of randomized controlled trials.
method Two TMLEs that borrow information from non-subgroup participants.
result Improved precision in subgroup-specific treatment effect estimates.
Study shows corporate governance improves stock liquidity with noise traders' participation.
problem Improving liquidity of listed companies' stocks.
method Theoretical model with heterogeneity of investors' beliefs.
result Corporate governance and noise traders' participation synergistically improve stock liquidity.
Optimizes capital structure for life insurance companies with surplus participation.
problem Determining the optimal participation rate in life insurance contracts.
method Adapted Leland's dynamic capital structure model to life insurance context.
result Optimal participation rate is highly sensitive to contract duration and tax rate.
The efficiency of a modern economy depends on what we call the Value-Tracking Hypothesis: that market prices of key assets broadly track some underlying value. This can be expected if a sufficient weight of market participants are valuation-based traders, buying and selling an asset when its price is, respectively, bel…
Twitter promotes cryptocurrency pump-and-dumps, affecting trading behavior and returns.
problem The influence of Twitter on cryptocurrency pump-and-dump events.
method Analysis of abnormal returns, trading volume, and tweet activity.
result Investors relying on Twitter information sell later, leading to significant losses.
Paper proposes SCALLION and SCAFCOM for compressed FL with reduced communication.
problem Reducing communication overhead in Federated Learning with data heterogeneity and partial participation.
method Revisit and simplify stochastic controlled averaging, proposing SCALLION and SCAFCOM for unbiased and biased compression.
result SCALLION and SCAFCOM outperform existing methods in communication and computation complexities.
The paper uncovers two key laws of market impact influenced by volume and participation rate.
problem Understanding the roles of volume and participation rate in market price response.
method Extending the no arbitrage approach to include sophisticated market participants, deriving price dynamics from order flow dynamics.
result Recovery of two square root laws governing market impact.
A new framework for asset pricing based on modelling the information available to market participants is presented. Each asset is characterised by the cash flows it generates. Each cash flow is expressed as a function of one or more independent random variables called market factors or "X-factors". Each X-factor is ass…
Local adaptation improves federated learning models.
problem Improving accuracy of federated learning models on non-iid data.
method Local adaptation techniques (fine-tuning, multi-task learning, knowledge distillation).
result Participants benefit from local adaptation, improving federated model accuracy.
Unified analysis of FL with arbitrary client participation.
problem Challenges of intermittent client availability and efficiency in FL.
method Introduces a generalized FedAvg and novel analysis capturing client participation.
result Unified convergence upper bounds for various participation patterns.
In recent years, deep learning algorithms have become increasingly more prominent for their unparalleled ability to automatically learn discriminant features from large amounts of data. However, within the field of electromyography-based gesture recognition, deep learning algorithms are seldom employed as they require …
Decomposing market impact into diffusive components
problem Market impact scaling
method Decomposing impact into realized and counterfactual returns
result Implication of square-root law in information-neutral regime
FedAMD framework improves federated learning with partial client participation.
problem Data heterogeneity and inactive client updates in partial client participation.
method Anchor sampling divides clients into anchor and miner groups, using large and small batches respectively.
result FedAMD achieves faster convergence and improved model performance compared to state-of-the-art methods.
Paper tackles unknown participation in FL, proposing FedAU for better performance.
problem Unknown participation statistics in federated learning impact performance.
method Adapting aggregation weights in FedAvg based on participation history.
result FedAU converges to optimal solution and has desirable properties.
Framework optimizes battery storage for markets by separating long-term degradation from short-term market dynamics.
problem Intractable computation due to timescale mismatch between battery degradation and market dynamics.
method Approximate dynamic programming with value function approximation and pseudo-time encoding.
result Policy outperforms benchmarks in real-time market scenarios.
Bayesian PROCOVA uses AI to adjust for covariates in RCTs.
problem Unbiased and precise treatment effect inferences from RCTs.
method Generative AI constructs digital twins for covariate adjustment, using an additive mixture prior.
result Efficiency gains in smaller RCTs compared to frequentist methods.
The purpose of this article is to introduce, analyze and compare two performance participation methods based on a portfolio consisting of two risky assets: Option-Based Performance Participation (OBPP) and Constant Proportion Performance Participation (CPPP). By generalizing the provided guarantee to a participation in…
Mechanisms of information communication and market price movements. The case of SP 500 marketq-fin.ST
The paper analyzes how market prices respond to information processing and non-linear dynamics.
problem Understanding how market prices change in response to information.
method Logistic Continuous Wavelet Transformation method applied to SP 500 market data.
result Identifies patterns in market dynamics and describes them using a new theory of reflexive communication.
Bayesian method improves multivariate periodontal outcome modeling.
problem Modeling periodontal outcomes is challenging and requires consideration of demographic differences.
method Jointly models multivariate outcomes using an online Bayesian transfer learning framework.
result Significant improvement over univariate RECaST method demonstrated.
We analyze the relation between earning forecast accuracy and expected profitability of financial analysts. Modeling forecast errors with a multivariate Gaussian distribution, a complete characterization of the payoff of each analyst is provided. In particular, closed-form expressions for the probability density functi…
We consider a financial market model with a single risky asset whose price process evolves according to a general jump-diffusion with locally bounded coefficients and where market participants have only access to a partial information flow. For any utility function, we prove that the partial information financial marke…
Extended model ensures long-term survival of traders in limited stock market participation.
problem Limited stock market participation and survival of traders over long periods.
method Extended Basak and Cuoco (1998) model with different time-preference coefficients.
result Parameter restrictions ensure long-term survival of traders.
We consider trading against a hedge fund or large trader that must liquidate a large position in a risky asset if the market price of the asset crosses a certain threshold. Liquidation occurs in a disorderly manner and negatively impacts the market price of the asset. We consider the perspective of small investors whos…
Data poisoning attacks can severely degrade FL models, especially targeting specific classes.
problem Data poisoning attacks against federated learning systems.
method Demonstrated targeted attacks on FL systems, analyzed attack longevity, and proposed a defense strategy.
result Data poisoning attacks can cause substantial drops in classification accuracy and recall with a small percentage of malicious participants.
In this paper, we present a new task that investigates how people interact with and make judgments about towers of blocks. In Experiment~1, participants in the lab solved a series of problems in which they had to re-configure three blocks from an initial to a final configuration. We recorded whether they used one hand …
Proves existence of equilibrium in limited participation economy.
problem Existence of an equilibrium in an economy with limited financial market access.
method Proves global existence of Radner equilibrium using BSDEs with unique solution.
result Proves existence of Radner equilibrium with limited participation.
New algorithm reduces communication time in federated learning.
problem Intermittent connectivity and non-i.i.d. data slow federated learning convergence.
method Lyapunov optimization for efficient device scheduling.
result Significant reduction in communication time with improved convergence rates.
DaringFed incentivizes clients in OFL with dynamic rewards under TII.
problem Designing incentives for OFL clients under dynamic, incomplete information.
method Formulated as a dynamic signaling and pricing allocation problem in a Bayesian persuasion game.
result Optimal design of DaringFed improves accuracy and convergence speed by 16.99%.
Flexible device participation improves federated learning convergence.
problem Strict device participation limits federated learning reach.
method Analytical results and new aggregation scheme for flexible participation.
result Convergence improved with flexible device participation.
Finding relevant information from large document collections such as the World Wide Web is a common task in our daily lives. Estimation of a user's interest or search intention is necessary to recommend and retrieve relevant information from these collections. We introduce a brain-information interface used for recomme…
A signature-based machine learning model for bipolar disorder and borderline personality disorderstat.ML
Mobile technologies offer opportunities for higher resolution monitoring of health conditions. This opportunity seems of particular promise in psychiatry where diagnoses often rely on retrospective and subjective recall of mood states. However, getting actionable information from these rather complex time series is cha…