Temporal information impacts only a fraction of time series datasets, skewing benchmark evaluations.
problem Temporal information's impact on time series classification is often overestimated.
method Permutation tests on UCR archive to identify datasets where temporal info is irrelevant.
result Many tabular datasets perform well without temporal info, skewing benchmark evaluations.
We investigated financial market data to determine which factors affect information flow between stocks. Two factors, the time dependency and the degree of efficiency, were considered in the analysis of Korean, the Japanese, the Taiwanese, the Canadian, and US market data. We found that the frequency of the significant…
Study shows financial value of weak information converges in discrete vs continuous markets.
problem Analyzing financial value of weak information in discrete vs continuous markets.
method Defined minimal probability measure and financial value of weak information, then showed convergence.
result Financial value of weak information converges in discrete vs continuous markets.
Discuss knots in SgimesS1, introducing rotating information and invariants.
problem Understanding knots in SgimesS1 and their invariants. method Introduce diagrams, moves, and rotating information to construct invariants.
result Construct invariants using the rotating information of knots in SgimesS1. Study shows using time-series privileged information improves model efficiency.
problem Efficiently predicting future outcomes using supervised models with privileged information.
method Developed an algorithm for learning with privileged time-series data and proved its efficiency for non-stationary Gaussian-linear systems.
result Learning with privileged information is more efficient than without it for non-stationary Gaussian-linear systems.
Investors pay for additional asset information based on utility maximization.
problem Determining the optimal price for additional asset information.
method Solving a stochastic control problem with partial information and utility maximization.
result Investors choose to purchase information at a deterministic time.
New method corrects ML for informative sampling in time-series treatment outcomes.
problem Informative sampling in irregularly observed data hinders accurate treatment outcome forecasting.
method Formalized as covariate shift, proposed inverse intensity-weighting framework, TESAR-CDE.
result TESAR-CDE effectively learns treatment outcomes under informative sampling.
Informer improves financial market prediction accuracy with global time stamp features.
problem Intra-day minute-scale financial market prediction challenges.
method Informer network, a novel deep learning model with smaller computational complexity and global time stamp features.
result Informer achieves best performance on MAE, RMSE, and MAPE evaluation criteria across all datasets.
Proposes a method to predict time series data using scale information.
problem Sequential data exhibits different behavior at different scales.
method Scale-based inference using k-nearest neighbors and sequential prediction. result Asymptotically, the algorithm produces the best prediction error.
In this paper, we quantify the statistical coherence between financial time series by means of the Renyi entropy. With the help of Campbell's coding theorem we show that the Renyi entropy selectively emphasizes only certain sectors of the underlying empirical distribution while strongly suppressing others. This accentu…
Accurate real-time monitoring systems of influenza outbreaks help public health officials make informed decisions that may help save lives. We show that information extracted from cloud-based electronic health records databases, in combination with machine learning techniques and historical epidemiological information,…
DArtNet predicts time series data using graph structure and dynamic attributes.
problem Predicting time series data using graph structure and dynamic attributes.
method DArtNet learns static and dynamic embeddings for graph nodes and encodes history information using RNN for joint link and attribute prediction.
result Improved time series prediction accuracy on five datasets.
A model combines GRU-D for missing data and Neural ODEs for time series continuity.
problem Challenges of informative missingness in multivariate time series data.
method Combines GRU-D for missing data imputation and Neural ODEs for temporal continuity.
result Demonstrates improved performance on a time series classification task.
Study proves value of non-Markovian games with partial, asymmetric info.
problem Value of non-Markovian Dynkin games with partial and asymmetric information.
method Probabilistic and functional analytic approach based on Sion's min-max theorem.
result Existence of optimal strategies for both players in randomised stopping times.
New insights and algorithms improve prediction models with time-series privileged information.
problem Efficient learning of nonlinear prediction models with limited data.
method Generalization of LuPI to nonlinear tasks, using random features and representation learning.
result Theoretical and empirical evidence supports the use of privileged time-series information for nonlinear prediction.
In this paper we introduce a class of information-based models for the pricing of fixed-income securities. We consider a set of continuous- time information processes that describe the flow of information about market factors in a monetary economy. The nominal pricing kernel is at any given time assumed to be given by …
Driven by climatic processes, wind power generation is inherently variable. Long-term simulated wind power time series are therefore an essential component for understanding the temporal availability of wind power and its integration into future renewable energy systems. In the recent past, mainly power curve based mod…
We model continuous-time information flows generated by a number of information sources that switch on and off at random times. By modulating a multi-dimensional Lévy random bridge over a random point field, our framework relates the discovery of relevant new information sources to jumps in conditional expectation mart…
In a unified framework we study equilibrium in the presence of an insider having information on the signal of the firm value, which is naturally connected to the fundamental price of the firm related asset. The fundamental value itself is announced at a future random (stopping) time. We consider two cases. First when t…
Calculates local Granger causality for Gaussian and nonlinear systems.
problem Understanding causal influence in complex systems.
method Vector autoregression and information-theoretic approach.
result Local Granger causality offers a robust and fast method for time-directed information transfer.
In this paper, we consider recommender systems with side information in the form of graphs. Existing collaborative filtering algorithms mainly utilize only immediate neighborhood information and have a hard time taking advantage of deeper neighborhoods beyond 1-2 hops. The main caveat of exploiting deeper graph informa…
New framework improves multivariate time series forecasting by minimizing redundant information.
problem Improving multivariate time series forecasting with deep learning techniques.
method Cross-variable Decorrelation Aware feature Modeling (CDAM) and Temporal correlation Aware Modeling (TAM) to refine Channel-mixing and exploit temporal correlations.
result Significantly surpasses existing models in comprehensive tests.
Paper formulates mutual information optimal control for discrete-time systems.
problem Optimal control of discrete-time linear systems with mutual information.
method Formulates MIOCP as an extension of MEOCP, derives optimal policy and prior, proposes alternating minimization algorithm.
result Proposes an alternating minimization algorithm for MIOCP.
Proposes a new model to measure trade impact and information content in fluctuating markets.
problem Measuring price impact and information content of trades in a time-varying market setting.
method Non-linear observation-driven model for dynamically estimating market impact and information content.
result Market impact shows intraday patterns with large fluctuations, some of which are exogenous.
The paper measures semantic information production in generative models using information theory.
problem Measuring when semantic decisions are made during generative model training.
method Using an online formula for the optimal Bayesian classifier, the paper estimates conditional entropy and determines time intervals for highest information transfer.
result Semantic information transfer is highest in intermediate stages of diffusion, with different classes making decisions at different times.
Statistical test rejects market efficiency using entropy from price returns.
problem Determining market efficiency using information theory.
method Symbolic representation of price returns, Shannon entropy, and statistical test.
result Rejects market efficiency hypothesis for various datasets.
PULSE learns representations from physiological time series.
problem Lack of effective pretraining objectives for physiological time series.
method Proposes a pretraining framework exploiting dynamical systems generative model.
result PULSE learns representations that distinguish semantic classes and improve transfer learning.
We propose a model to study the effects of delayed information on option pricing. We first talk about the absence of arbitrage in our model, and then discuss super replication with delayed information in a binomial model, notably, we present a closed form formula for the price of convex contingent claims. Also, we addr…
Examines predictability and complexity of economic time series using symbolic dynamics and entropy.
problem Understanding the predictability and complexity of economic time series.
method Symbolic dynamics and Information theory (entropy and uncertainty).
result Economic time series are complex and can be expressed in terms of information production.
We study an optimal investment problem under default risk where related information such as loss or recovery at default is considered as an exogenous random mark added at default time. Two types of agents who have different levels of information are considered. We first make precise the insider's information flow by us…
Study on markets with insiders receiving private signals affecting asset prices and information flow.
problem Understanding markets with heterogeneous information flows and private signals.
method Proves existence of a partial communication equilibrium with jumps in information and prices.
result The public information flow and asset prices jump at each private signal time, creating incomplete markets between jumps.
Kernel TCK_IM tackles missing data in EHR time series, improving analysis.
problem Missing data complicates analysis of EHR time series.
method TCK_IM kernel using ensemble learning of mixed mode Bayesian mixture models.
result TCK_IM kernel effectively exploits missing data without imputation.
ERDMD discovers sparse, nonuniformly timed DMD models from chaotic attractors.
problem Discovering high-fidelity, nonuniformly timed DMD models from chaotic data.
method Entropic regression for nonlinear information flow detection, combined with multi-step DMD.
result ERDMD produces highly efficient and robust models with minimal complexity.
In many application domains, time series are monitored to detect extreme events like technical faults, natural disasters, or disease outbreaks. Unfortunately, it is often non-trivial to select both a time series that is informative about events and a powerful detection algorithm: detection may fail because the detectio…
Study dynamic equilibrium with insider and general uninformed agent preferences.
problem Analyzing asymmetric information and general utility functions in a continuous-time economy.
method Introducing a new method to prove existence of a partial communication equilibrium (PCE) for agents with general utility functions.
result Identify the equilibrium price in the small and large risk aversion limits for agents with power utility.
A new method improves recommendation accuracy by learning from multiple networks and time-dependent user preferences.
problem Incomplete user profiles and dynamic user preferences degrade recommender quality.
method A cross-network time-aware recommender that learns from multiple source networks and develops current user models.
result The proposed solution achieves superior performance in accuracy, novelty, and diversity.
This paper provides sufficient conditions for the time of bankruptcy (of a company or a state) for being a totally inaccessible stopping time and provides the explicit computation of its compensator in a framework where the flow of market information on the default is modelled explicitly with a Brownian bridge between …
We introduce a learning framework called learning using privileged information (LUPI) to the computer vision field. We focus on the prototypical computer vision problem of teaching computers to recognize objects in images. We want the computers to be able to learn faster at the expense of providing extra information du…
Study utility indifference pricing with delayed investment information in a Bachelier model.
problem Investment decisions based on delayed information in a Bachelier model.
method Developed discrete-time duality and used techniques from [7] to compute scaling limits.
result Utility indifference prices scaling limit for vanishing delay with quadratic penalty.
End-to-end model for time series classification with missing data.
problem Time series classification with missing data.
method End-to-end neural network that unifies imputation and representation learning.
result Proposed model outperforms state-of-the-art approaches for incomplete time series classification.
Inferring causal interactions from observed data is a challenging problem, especially in the presence of measurement noise. To alleviate the problem of spurious causality, Haufe et al. (2013) proposed to contrast measures of information flow obtained on the original data against the same measures obtained on time-rever…
Solves utility maximization for delayed informed investors.
problem Maximizing utility in a discrete time framework with delayed information.
method Utilizes theory from [4] and optimal portfolio guessing.
result Solution for exponential utility maximization in a multivariate normal setting with delay.
In financial markets valuable information is rarely circulated homogeneously, because of time required for information to spread. However, advances in communication technology means that the 'lifetime' of important information is typically short. Hence, viewed as a tradable asset, information shares the characteristics…
Improved time series classification with imputed data using label-guided forest-based methods.
problem Missing data in time series data.
method Label-guided imputation using forest-based proximity measures.
result Imputation leads to higher classification accuracies, even with imputed values differing from true values.
Study utility maximization with delayed information in continuous time Gaussian markets.
problem Maximizing utility with delayed information in continuous time Gaussian markets.
method Purely probabilistic approach based on Radon-Nikodym derivatives of Gaussian measures.
result Solution for optimal control and value in a specific Gaussian framework.
Optimizes stochastic linear bandits with efficient, asymptotically optimal algorithm.
problem Optimizing stochastic linear bandits with multiple actions.
method Frequentist information-directed sampling (IDS) with a surrogate for information gain.
result Asymptotically optimal and nearly worst-case optimal in finite time.
MCFNet recovers spatial detail and fuses it with semantic information for real-time segmentation.
problem Recovering spatial detail information and fusing it with semantic information in real-time.
method Proposes a new architecture (MCFNet) with feature refinement and fusion modules, and a gating unit.
result Achieves competitive performance with high speed (75.5% mIOU, 151.3 FPS on Cityscapes).
There is growing evidence regarding the importance of spike timing in neural information processing, with even a small number of spikes carrying information, but computational models lag significantly behind those for rate coding. Experimental evidence on neuronal behavior is consistent with the dynamical and state dep…