A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Improved time series classification with imputed data using label-guided forest-based methods.
Rainfall ensemble forecasts have to be skillful for both low precipitation and extreme events. We present statistical post-processing methods based on Quantile Regression Forests (QRF) and Gradient Forests (GF) with a parametric extension for heavy-tailed distributions. Our goal is to improve ensemble quality for all t…
Information-theoretic quantities, such as conditional entropy and mutual information, are critical data summaries for quantifying uncertainty. Current widely used approaches for computing such quantities rely on nearest neighbor methods and exhibit both strong performance and theoretical guarantees in certain simple sc…
A new feature selection method using random forest and Kolmogorov filter.
Decision forests are widely used for classification and regression tasks. A lesser known property of tree-based methods is that one can construct a proximity matrix from the tree(s), and these proximity matrices are induced kernels. While there has been extensive research on the applications and properties of kernels, …
Improved random forest models enhance machine learning predictions.
Forest-based methods have recently gained in popularity for non-parametric treatment effect estimation. Building on this line of work, we introduce causal survival forests, which can be used to estimate heterogeneous treatment effects in a survival and observational setting where outcomes may be right-censored. Our app…
This paper deals with prediction of anopheles number, the main vector of malaria risk, using environmental and climate variables. The variables selection is based on an automatic machine learning method using regression trees, and random forests combined with stratified two levels cross validation. The minimum threshol…
Forest-based methods estimate heterogeneous treatment effects, blending strengths for better performance.
We consider the problem of detecting anomalies in a large dataset. We propose a framework called Partial Identification which captures the intuition that anomalies are easy to distinguish from the overwhelming majority of points by relatively few attribute values. Formalizing this intuition, we propose a geometric anom…
We introduce a random forest approach to enable spreads' prediction in the primary catastrophe bond market. We investigate whether all information provided to investors in the offering circular prior to a new issuance is equally important in predicting its spread. The whole population of non-life catastrophe bonds issu…
Many real-world regression problems demand a measure of the uncertainty associated with each prediction. Standard decision forests deliver efficient state-of-the-art predictive performance, but high-quality uncertainty estimates are lacking. Gaussian processes (GPs) deliver uncertainty estimates, but scaling GPs to lar…
A new variable importance measure for DRFs detects broader impacts on output distributions.
GCQRF predicts survival quantiles without linearity assumptions.
This paper analyzes stock market data to predict share prices using regression models.
New methods optimize personalized treatment assignment in trials with many arms.
A fundamental question for companies with large amount of logged data is: How to use such logged data together with incoming streaming data to make good decisions? Many companies currently make decisions via online A/B tests, but wrong decisions during testing hurt users' experiences and cause irreversible damage. A ty…
Analysis of an organization's computer network activity is a key component of early detection and mitigation of insider threat, a growing concern for many organizations. Raw system logs are a prototypical example of streaming data that can quickly scale beyond the cognitive power of a human analyst. As a prospective fi…
Metric learning makes it plausible to learn distances for complex distributions of data from labeled data. However, to date, most metric learning methods are based on a single Mahalanobis metric, which cannot handle heterogeneous data well. Those that learn multiple metrics throughout the space have demonstrated superi…
Unsupervised clustering can reproduce categorization systems if features and metrics are correctly selected.
MaxRM uses random forests to minimize maximum risk across different environments.
Enhances supervised visualization for unseen data using autoencoders and random forest.
Black-box neural network models are widely used in industry and science, yet are hard to understand and interpret. Recently, the attention mechanism was introduced, offering insights into the inner workings of neural language models. This paper explores the use of attention-based neural networks mechanism for estimatin…
Decision forests, including Random Forests and Gradient Boosting Trees, have recently demonstrated state-of-the-art performance in a variety of machine learning settings. Decision forests are typically ensembles of axis-aligned decision trees; that is, trees that split only along feature dimensions. In contrast, many r…
Bayesian calibration speeds up ABM for pandemic modeling.
Domain generation algorithms (DGAs) are commonly leveraged by malware to create lists of domain names which can be used for command and control (C&C) purposes. Approaches based on machine learning have recently been developed to automatically detect generated domain names in real-time. In this work, we present a novel …
A new boosting method reduces overfitting and negative transfer in transfer learning.
Bayesian optimization reduces materials design costs by 10x.
Chimera state refers to coexistence of coherent and non-coherent phases in identically coupled dynamical units found in various complex dynamical systems. Identification of Chimera, on one hand is essential due to its applicability in various areas including neuroscience, and on other hand is challenging due to its wid…
Public road authorities and private mobility service providers need information derived from the current and predicted traffic states to act upon the daily urban system and its spatial and temporal dynamics. In this research, a real-time parking area state (occupancy, in- and outflux) prediction model (up to 60 minutes…
Paper proposes a new financial fraud detection system using improved RF and GBM.
Model classifies hand gestures with low EMG samples augmented with noise.
Study compares tree-based imputation methods to MICE PMM for missing data.
Wearable devices enable theoretically continuous, longitudinal monitoring of physiological measurements like step count, energy expenditure, and heart rate. Although the classification of abnormal cardiac rhythms such as atrial fibrillation from wearable devices has great potential, commercial algorithms remain proprie…