Bayesian inference over admissible histories leads to irreversible kinetics.
problem Modeling irreversible processes in systems with uncertain histories.
method A Gibbs-type measure weighted by energy-dissipation action and observation constraints, interpreted as a Bayesian posterior.
result The measure concentrates on maximum-a-posteriori (MAP) histories, recovering classical deterministic evolution.
HS-FNO models non-Markovian PDEs by learning history and future states.
problem Non-Markovian dynamics where future states depend on past history.
method History-Space Fourier Neural Operator (HS-FNO) for delay and memory-driven PDEs.
result HS-FNO achieves lowest aggregate errors across various PDE families.
Overview of affine surface area and its history.
problem None explicitly stated; focuses on overview.
method None explicitly stated; focuses on overview.
result None explicitly stated; focuses on overview.
Survey on DDVV-type inequalities, their history, and recent developments.
problem None explicitly stated; focuses on surveying existing work.
method None explicitly stated; focuses on surveying existing work.
result Survey of DDVV-type inequalities and their history and recent developments.
SRMC framework reduces Monte Carlo variance by history-based sampling in high-dimensional spaces.
problem Efficient sampling in high-dimensional discrete or continuous state spaces.
method Score-Repellent Monte Carlo (SRMC) framework that summarizes history through running average of score evaluations.
result Improves estimator variance and mode coverage with constant memory usage.
Paper analyzes history-based RL methods for MDPs, introduces a theoretical framework and practical algorithm.
problem Improving RL performance in MDPs using history-based features.
method Theoretical framework for history-based RL, practical algorithm design.
result Practical RL algorithm shows effectiveness on continuous control tasks.
Neural networks improve cancer risk prediction from family history data.
problem Improving cancer risk prediction from family history data using machine learning.
method Developed and trained neural network models on large pedigrees to predict hereditary cancers.
result Neural networks can achieve nearly optimal prediction performance and outperform traditional models in misreported data.
The paper explains why estimating a history-dependent policy can reduce MSE in reinforcement learning.
problem Understanding why history-dependent policies can improve MSE in off-policy evaluation.
method The paper derives a bias-variance decomposition of MSE for various OPE estimators, showing how history-dependent policies can decrease variance and increase bias.
result History-dependent policies can decrease the variance of importance sampling estimators, leading to lower MSE.
It is shown how the generating functional method of De Dominicis can be used to solve the dynamics of the original version of the minority game (MG), in which agents observe real as opposed to fake market histories. Here one again finds exact closed equations for correlation and response functions, but now these are de…
This paper suggests claim history will be deprecated in future auto insurance rates.
problem The role of historical claim records in auto insurance rates.
method Proposes a new risk variable elimination method and real-time road risk model design.
result Claim history will be considered a 'noise' factor and deprecated in Pay-How-You-Drive models.
We present in this chapter (Chapter II) the history of ideas which lead up to the development of modern knot theory. We are more detailed when pre-XX century history is reported. With more recent times we are more selective, stressing developments related to Jones type invariants of links. In the Appendix, A.Przybyszew…
Paper tackles reinforcement learning for STL specifications with state history.
problem Learning optimal policies to satisfy STL specifications often requires too much state history, making the problem computationally intractable.
method Proposes a compact augmented state-space representation to capture state history and an approximation method to solve the objective.
result Shows the performance bound of the approximate solution and compares it with an existing technique.
We propose an online algorithm for cumulative regret minimization in a stochastic multi-armed bandit. The algorithm adds O(t) i.i.d. pseudo-rewards to its history in round t and then pulls the arm with the highest average reward in its perturbed history. Therefore, we call it perturbed-history exploration (PHE). Th…
We propose a new online algorithm for cumulative regret minimization in a stochastic linear bandit. The algorithm pulls the arm with the highest estimated reward in a linear model trained on its perturbed history. Therefore, we call it perturbed-history exploration in a linear bandit (LinPHE). The perturbed history is …
We give an explicit definition of decentralization and show you that decentralization is almost impossible for the current stage and Bitcoin is the first truly noncentralized currency in the currency history. We propose a new framework of noncentralized cryptocurrency system with an assumption of the existence of a wea…
Cold-start PV forecasting uses synthetic histories to train time-series foundation models.
problem Cold-start PV forecasting
method Zero-shot pipeline with synthetic histories
result TabPFN-TS achieves the lowest error under Real Feedback strategy
Epsilon-machines are minimal, unifilar presentations of stationary stochastic processes. They were originally defined in the history machine sense, as hidden Markov models whose states are the equivalence classes of infinite pasts with the same probability distribution over futures. In analyzing synchronization, though…
Combining deep learning and ensemble smoothers for better history matching.
problem Dealing with complex facies distributions in history matching.
method Using autoencoders and generative adversarial networks to parameterize facies models, applying distance-based localization.
result Improved history matching performance with deep learning parameterizations.
New framework handles dynamic contexts in reinforcement learning.
problem Learning in environments where contexts change over time.
method Dynamic Contextual Markov Decision Processes (DCMDPs) with logistic aggregation.
result Upper-confidence-bound style algorithm with regret bounds.
A dangerously brief history of the developments of the main ideas in economics, as observed by a physicist, is given. This was published in 'Econophysics of Stock and Other Markets', Eds. A. Chatterjee, B. K. Chakrabarti, New Economic Windows Series, Springer, Milan, 2006, pp~219-224.
Transformers improve Alzheimer's disease progression prediction by accounting for irregular biomarker histories.
problem Difficult prediction of medium-horizon Alzheimer's disease progression due to tied clinical scores and irregular biomarker observations.
method Developed a residual gap-aware transformer that combines statistical reference with transformer-based residual learning.
result The proposed model reduces mean error and improves prediction-observation correlation compared to baseline models.
Foundation models improve wage gap decomposition by capturing omitted career history factors.
problem Estimating wage disparities using incomplete career history data.
method Fine-tuning foundation models to mitigate omitted variable bias and estimate wage gaps.
result Foundation models can decompose gender wage gaps more accurately than traditional econometric methods.
Marden's Tameness Conjecture predicts that every hyperbolic 3-manifold with finitely generated fundamental group is homeomorphic to the interior of a compact 3-manifold. It was recently established by Agol and Calegari-Gabai. We will survey the history of work on this conjecture and discuss its many applications.
Network growth processes can be understood as generative models of the structure and history of complex networks. This point of view naturally leads to the problem of network archaeology: reconstructing all the past states of a network from its structure---a difficult permutation inference problem. In this paper, we in…
Deep learning calibrates CO2 storage formations from seismic and well data.
problem Uncertainty in CO2 storage formation properties.
method Two deep learning models for well and seismic data, integrated into MCMC history matching.
result Significant uncertainty reduction in key parameters and accurate CO2 plume predictions.
A new method uses a frozen language model to improve sample efficiency in reinforcement learning.
problem Improving sample efficiency in reinforcement learning with partially observable environments.
method FROZEN Hopfield network and HELM (History Embedding Language Model) method.
result HELM achieves new state-of-the-art results on Minigrid and Procgen environments.
HDT improves MCMC on graphs with history-dependent sampling.
problem Efficient sampling from target distributions on general graphs with low computational overhead.
method History-driven target (HDT) framework that replaces the original target distribution with a history-dependent one.
result Near-zero variance performance and scalability to large graphs with memory-efficient implementation.
New scheme adapts batch size for faster variance-reduced algorithms.
problem Slowness of variance-reduced algorithms due to large batch size.
method Eliminates backtracking line search, adapts batch size via history stochastic gradients.
result Significantly reduces overall complexity for SVRG and SARAH/SPIDER.
Rhino learns causal relationships from time series data with history-dependent noise.
problem Discovering causal relationships from time series data with non-linear relations, instantaneous effects, and history-dependent noise.
method Combines vector auto-regression, deep learning, and variational inference.
result Demonstrates better causal relationship discovery performance compared to baselines.
Proposes using frequent sequences to improve sequential recommendation models.
problem Combining user history and recent actions for personalized recommendations.
method Uses frequent sequences to identify relevant parts of user history, embedding items based on preferences and dynamics in a unified metric model.
result Outperforms state-of-the-art methods, especially on sparse datasets.
Explains the history and challenges of minimal surfaces.
problem Understanding the regularity of minimal surfaces.
method Historical overview and technical analysis.
result Outlines the evolution and current state of minimal surfaces.
In the light of contemporary discussions of inter and transdisciplinarity, this paper approaches econophysics and sociophysics to seek a response to the question -- whether these interdisciplinary fields could contribute to physics and economics. Drawing upon the literature on history and philosophy of science, the pap…
Auto-regressive sequence-to-sequence models with attention mechanism have achieved state-of-the-art performance in many tasks such as machine translation and speech synthesis. These models can be difficult to train. The standard approach, teacher forcing, guides a model with reference output history during training. Th…
A new algorithm adapts to changing user behaviors in finance.
problem Adapting to changing user behaviors in financial recommendations.
method History-Augmented Collaborative Filtering using a custom neural network.
result The algorithm provides dynamic financial recommendations.
Machine-assisted treatment recommendations hold a promise to reduce physician time and decision errors. We formulate the task as a sequence-to-sequence prediction model that takes the entire time-ordered medical history as input, and predicts a sequence of future clinical procedures and medications. It is built on the …
This survey analyzes knowledge discovery in cryptocurrency transactions.
problem Understanding user behaviors and collective actions in cryptocurrency transactions.
method Data mining techniques and literature review.
result Classified existing research into three aspects and discussed major findings.
Many households in developing countries lack formal financial histories, making it difficult for firms to extend credit, and for potential borrowers to receive it. However, many of these households have mobile phones, which generate rich data about behavior. This article shows that behavioral signatures in mobile phone…
A new method detects and removes false trailing balances in credit data.
problem False trailing balances in credit data corrupt risk event timing.
method TruEnd-procedure defines and removes false trailing balances.
result Improved accuracy in predicting risk events and reducing credit losses.
This paper examines challenges in analyzing NFT transaction data.
problem Challenges in analyzing NFT transaction data due to non-fungible nature and blockchain.
method Analysis of transaction history of eight NFT collections.
result Illustrates challenges such as price differentiation, lateral swaps, and volatility.
Neurons in cortical circuits exhibit coordinated spiking activity, and can produce correlated synchronous spikes during behavior and cognition. We recently developed a method for estimating the dynamics of correlated ensemble activity by combining a model of simultaneous neuronal interactions (e.g., a spin-glass model)…
Predicts clinical events using a landmark approach with machine learning for large biomarker histories.
problem Dynamic prediction of clinical events from large biomarker histories.
method Landmark approach extended to endogenous markers history combined with machine learning methods for survival data.
result Superlearner combining regularized regressions and random survival forests outperforms standard survival models.
Brief history and challenges of interpretable machine learning.
problem Challenges in interpreting machine learning models, especially in scientific applications.
method Overview of state-of-the-art methods and discussion of challenges.
result Interpretable machine learning has a rich history but faces significant challenges.
Study constructs balanced datasets for seismic failure prediction.
problem Imbalanced datasets limit machine learning performance in seismic failure prediction.
method Framework with three steps: GMF identification, probability density estimation, and sample transformation.
result Framework improves machine learning performance in seismic failure mode prediction.
Event sequence, asynchronously generated with random timestamp, is ubiquitous among applications. The precise and arbitrary timestamp can carry important clues about the underlying dynamics, and has lent the event data fundamentally different from the time-series whereby series is indexed with fixed and equal time inte…
Recurrent networks learn beliefs from history in partially observable environments.
problem Learning optimal policies in partially observable environments.
method Trained recurrent neural networks to approximate value functions, measuring mutual information between hidden states and beliefs.
result Recurrent networks' hidden states correlate with beliefs of relevant state variables, improving expected return.
Study of Bitcoin User Network structure over 8 years.
problem Analyzing Bitcoin User Network structure over time.
method Mesoscale structural properties analysis of Bitcoin User Network (BUN) from 2009 to 2017.
result Bitcoin User Network exhibits core-periphery structure with bow-tie topology, influenced by price fluctuations.
Users form information trails as they browse the web, checkin with a geolocation, rate items, or consume media. A common problem is to predict what a user might do next for the purposes of guidance, recommendation, or prefetching. First-order and higher-order Markov chains have been widely used methods to study such se…
A long user history inevitably reflects the transitions of personal interests over time. The analyses on the user history require the robust sequential model to anticipate the transitions and the decays of user interests. The user history is often modeled by various RNN structures, but the RNN structures in the recomme…