Paper uses HGLM and bootstrap for loss reserve error estimation in insurance.
problem Estimating prediction error for loss reserves in non-life insurance.
method Hierarchical Generalized Linear Model (HGLM) and Bootstrap Estimator.
result Bootstrap provides full information about prediction error quantiles.
Diffusion models generalize better with hierarchical data structure and regularization.
problem Understanding generalization in diffusion models with finite data.
method Analyzing diffusion models through data covariance spectra and developing a theoretical framework based on linear neural networks.
result Generalization in diffusion models improves with hierarchical data structure and regularization.
A fast method for fitting deep hierarchical models to large datasets.
problem Fitting a deeply-nested hierarchical model to a large book review dataset.
method Moment-based estimator extension for arbitrarily deep hierarchies.
result Orders of magnitude faster than standard maximum likelihood procedures.
Hierarchical beta process has found interesting applications in recent years. In this paper we present a modified hierarchical beta process prior with applications to hierarchical modeling of multiple data sources. The novel use of the prior over a hierarchical factor model allows factors to be shared across different …
Proposes GPHMEs using Gaussian processes for hierarchical expert models.
problem Hierarchical mixtures of experts with complex gating functions.
method Gaussian process-gated hierarchical mixtures of experts (GPHMEs) with non-linear gating and expert functions.
result Outperforms tree-based HMEs and achieves good performance with reduced complexity.
We survey agglomerative hierarchical clustering algorithms and discuss efficient implementations that are available in R and other software environments. We look at hierarchical self-organizing maps, and mixture models. We review grid-based clustering, focusing on hierarchical density-based approaches. Finally we descr…
Extends linear representation hypothesis to categorical and hierarchical concepts in LLMs.
problem Representing concepts without natural contrasts in large language models.
method Formalizes linear representation hypothesis for categorical and hierarchical concepts, proving relationships between concept hierarchy and representation geometry.
result Validated theoretical results on large language models, estimating representations for 900+ concepts.
Global convergence proved for multi-agent LQRs with hierarchical actor-critic.
problem Challenges in understanding multi-agent reinforcement learning algorithms.
method Developed a hierarchical actor-critic algorithm for partially exchangeable agents.
result Global linear convergence to optimal policy proved.
Extends online linear regression to handle multivariate data.
problem Hierarchical forecasting with multivariate responses.
method Introduces MultiVAW, extending Vovk-Azoury-Warmuth algorithm to multivariate setting.
result Achieves logarithmic regret in time for multivariate online linear regression.
A clustering algorithm for natural hierarchical clusters with near-linear time complexity.
problem Hierarchical clustering with near-linear time complexity.
method Nearest neighbor based clustering algorithm that defines clusters naturally.
result Near-linear time and space complexity for certain datasets.
Bayesian stacking improves model performance with varying model weights.
problem Improving model predictions with heterogeneous input performance.
method Bayesian hierarchical stacking with varying model weights inferred via Bayesian inference.
result Hierarchical stacking yields better predictions than linear averaging.
Models predict soccer match outcomes with similar accuracy.
problem Predicting soccer match outcomes (win, draw, loss).
method Compared Bradley-Terry extensions and hierarchical Poisson log-linear model. Parameters estimated using log-likelihood or integrated nested Laplace approximations. Predictive performance assessed using temporal validation.
result Bradley-Terry extensions and hierarchical Poisson log-linear model perform similarly in predicting match outcomes.
Paper improves RLS for sparse outlier detection in linear models.
problem Outliers contaminate linear regression models infrequently.
method Hierarchical-optimization recursive least squares with sparsity-inducing regularization.
result The method robustly estimates linear filters/systems with outliers.
A hierarchical approach improves classification accuracy in large datasets.
problem Improving classification accuracy in large datasets with high dimensionality.
method Hierarchical subspace learning to scale manifold learning methods.
result Average 5% increase in classification accuracy.
This work tackles posterior collapse in conditional and hierarchical VAEs.
problem Posterior collapse in VAEs leads to poor latent variable representations.
method Theoretical analysis of linear conditional and hierarchical VAEs, empirical validation.
result Theoretical and empirical evidence of posterior collapse causes in conditional and hierarchical VAEs.
The Baire metric induces an ultrametric on a dataset and is of linear computational complexity, contrasted with the standard quadratic time agglomerative hierarchical clustering algorithm. In this work we evaluate empirically this new approach to hierarchical clustering. We compare hierarchical clustering based on the …
A new hierarchical forecasting method using machine learning improves forecast accuracy.
problem Improving forecast accuracy in hierarchical forecasting systems.
method Non-linear combination of base forecasts, focusing on both accuracy and coherence.
result The proposed method outperforms existing approaches, especially for diverse series.
A new method for efficient BNC parameter estimation outperforms HDP smoothing.
problem Efficiently estimating parameters for Bayesian network classifiers to match or exceed random forest performance.
method Uses log-linear regression to approximate hierarchical Dirichlet process (HDP) smoothing, making the approach simpler and faster.
result Our method outperforms HDP smoothing while being orders of magnitude faster and competitive with random forests.
Proposes a hierarchical deep generative model for natural images.
problem Analyzing piecewise smooth signals like natural images.
method Hierarchical deep generative model with alternating minimization algorithm.
result Demonstrates the model's representation capabilities and classification performance.
Neural models improve GLMMs for complex data.
problem Nonlinear relationships in grouped data.
method Replaced linear function with neural networks.
result Improved performance on synthetic and real-world data.
A new method for blind source separation using hierarchical structure and KL divergence.
problem Blind source separation of complex interacting signals.
method Hierarchical log-linear model with KL divergence minimization.
result Superior performance compared to existing techniques on images and time series data.
Paper develops federated GLMM algorithms for analyzing hierarchical data.
problem Analyzing hierarchical data with non-independent observations in a federated setting.
method Developed two federated GLMM algorithms using Laplace and Gaussian Hermite approximations.
result Federated GLMM can handle hierarchical data and achieve comparable or superior performance.
Linear RC shows hierarchical temporal patterns in state signals.
problem Understanding hierarchical temporal representations in deep RNNs.
method Used linear recurrent units and frequency analysis on state signals.
result Linear RC reveals intrinsic hierarchical temporal structure.
New method approximates high-dimensional probability densities efficiently.
problem Approximating high-dimensional probability densities accurately and efficiently.
method Hierarchical tensor-network approach using randomized SVD and linear equations.
result The method effectively approximates high-dimensional densities with linear complexity.
Develops robust learning methods for datasets with sub-populations.
problem Robust performance and generalization to unseen testing populations in datasets with sub-populations.
method Min-max-regret (MMR) formulation for distribution-free robust hierarchical model.
result Empirical MMR enjoys regret guarantees on training and unseen testing populations.
Log-linear models are the popular workhorses of analyzing contingency tables. A log-linear parameterization of an interaction model can be more expressive than a direct parameterization based on probabilities, leading to a powerful way of defining restrictions derived from marginal, conditional and context-specific ind…
Study on bias-variance trade-off in hierarchical models with higher-order interactions.
problem Understanding the bias-variance trade-off in hierarchical probabilistic models with higher-order interactions.
method Proposed an efficient inference algorithm using Gibbs sampling and annealed importance sampling for log-linear higher-order Boltzmann machine.
result Higher-order interactions produce less variance for smaller sample size and comparable error with hidden layers.
Develops a hierarchical model for analyzing longitudinal data on manifolds.
problem Correlation between intra-subject measurements in nonlinear manifolds.
method Geodesic hierarchical models extended to Bézier spline trends.
result Validated on osteoarthritis data, improving disease progression classification.
This study compares hierarchical and non-hierarchical models for open-domain multi-turn dialog generation.
problem Which kind of models (hierarchical or non-hierarchical) is better for open-domain multi-turn dialog generation?
method Systematically compared nearly all representative hierarchical and non-hierarchical models over the same experimental settings.
result Nearly all hierarchical models are worse than non-hierarchical models in open-domain multi-turn dialog generation, except for HRAN.
Bayesian model for sparse regression with spatial-temporal structure.
problem Sparse linear regression with spatio-temporal constraints.
method Hierarchical Gaussian process prior and Expectation Propagation algorithm.
result Model successfully applied to real data.
Bayesian hierarchical models are increasing popular in economics. When using hierarchical models, it is useful not only to calculate posterior expectations, but also to measure the robustness of these expectations to reasonable alternative prior choices. We use variational Bayes and linear response methods to provide f…
New model predicts stochastic dynamics with hidden variables.
problem Predicting state transitions in stochastic dynamical systems.
method Hierarchical Bayesian linear regression with local features and variational EM algorithm.
result Parsimonious model structures and fast, accurate predictions.
This paper uses HCR to predict bid-ask spreads from accessible data.
problem Predicting bid-ask spreads from incomplete data.
method Hierarchical correlation reconstruction (HCR) to model conditional distributions.
result Accurate predictions of bid-ask spreads with interpretable coefficients.
A scalable Bayesian linear regression framework for spatial data.
problem Scalable methodologies for analyzing large spatial datasets.
method Conjugate Bayesian linear regression framework.
result Exact sampling from joint posterior distribution without iterative algorithms.
A new method for linear regression using feature graphs and hierarchical shrinkage.
problem Estimating robust parameters for linear regression models.
method Hierarchical Feature Regression (HFR) estimator that constructs a supervised feature graph to shrink parameters towards group targets.
result Demonstrates good predictive accuracy and versatility compared to other regularization techniques.
Improves hierarchical clustering in Euclidean space using autoencoders.
problem Lack of unsupervised methods for learning hierarchical structure in Euclidean space.
method Variational autoencoder with Gaussian mixture prior, rescaling latent space, and Ward's linkage.
result Improved dendrogram purity and Moseley-Wang cost function results.
We propose the supervised hierarchical Dirichlet process (sHDP), a nonparametric generative model for the joint distribution of a group of observations and a response variable directly associated with that whole group. We compare the sHDP with another leading method for regression on grouped data, the supervised latent…
ARC algorithm optimizes dynamic pricing with correlated observations.
problem Optimizing dynamic pricing with correlated and generally distributed observations.
method Extends ARC algorithm to batched bandits with generalised linear model.
result ARC algorithm outperforms alternative approaches in dynamic pricing.
New method optimizes mixed integer optimization for hierarchical modeling of clustered and longitudinal data.
problem Optimizing subset selection in hierarchical models with clustered and longitudinal data.
method Distribution-free mixed-integer optimization approach for cluster-aware regression.
result The method efficiently solves problems within minutes and outperforms traditional models in generating sparse solutions with high predictive power.
New model learns hierarchical features from generative models.
problem Generative models struggle with hierarchical feature learning.
method Proposed an alternative architecture to overcome limitations.
result Model learns interpretable, disentangled hierarchical features.
Proposes a new loss function for reconciling hierarchical forecasts.
problem Hierarchical forecasting with reconciliation issues.
method Integrates a new loss function into maximum likelihood objectives for hierarchical data.
result Improves forecast accuracy over existing methods.
Hierarchical-CPI improves variable importance measurement for medical data.
problem Limited interpretability of complex medical models.
method Hierarchical-CPI measures conditional variable importance with statistical control, handling correlated data.
result Hierarchical-CPI outperforms existing methods in medical datasets.
Enhances NMF for better time series recovery and prediction using side information.
problem Reconstruct and predict electricity consumption time series.
method Extends NMF with side information, proposes HALSX algorithm.
result Improved recovery and prediction performance validated on various datasets.
The paper sets limits on how long it takes to transform one group element into another in a broad group category.
problem Determining the minimum length of a conjugating element between pairs of infinite order elements.
method Established upper bounds on conjugator lengths for hierarchically hyperbolic groups, including mapping class groups and 3-manifold groups.
result A linear bound on the length of the shortest conjugator for Morse elements and a sharper result for virtually compact special groups.
MolHF generates complex molecules with hierarchical flow-based model.
problem Designing novel molecular structures with desired properties.
method MolHF is a hierarchical normalizing flow model that generates molecular graphs in a coarse-to-fine manner.
result MolHF achieves state-of-the-art performance in random generation and property optimization.
Enhances MTGP for better hierarchical latent interactions.
problem Current MTGPs struggle with hierarchical latent interactions.
method Proposes a novel kernel representation for hierarchical interactions in LMC of MTGP.
result Promotes knowledge transferring in MTGP through hierarchical interactions.
A new model integrates claim history and covariates for non-life insurance reserving.
problem Lack of information in traditional reserving models for non-life insurance claims.
method Hierarchical reserving model integrating claim history and covariates.
result Flexibility and robustness of the hierarchical reserving model demonstrated.
A new method for Bayesian neural networks using probabilistic backpropagation.
problem Approximating posterior distributions in Bayesian neural networks.
method Variational Expectation Propagation (VEP) with probabilistic backpropagation.
result Efficient algorithm for approximate integration over posterior distributions.