Bayesian design improves accuracy without extra cost.
problem Nested inference in complex systems limits BED accuracy and efficiency.
method Grouped geometric pooled posterior with EKI formulation.
result Improved accuracy and stable estimators at comparable cost.
Label switching is a phenomenon arising in mixture model posterior inference that prevents one from meaningfully assessing posterior statistics using standard Monte Carlo procedures. This issue arises due to invariance of the posterior under actions of a group; for example, permuting the ordering of mixture components …
New method estimates grouping loss in neural networks to improve confidence scores.
problem Improving confidence scores in neural networks to reflect true posterior probabilities.
method Proposed an estimator to approximate the grouping loss.
result Modern neural networks exhibit grouping loss, especially in distribution shifts.
PAM models generate dependent random distributions across groups with overlapping clusters.
problem Generating dependent random distributions across multiple groups.
method Atom skipping in an infinite mixture model.
result Interpretable posterior inference of cluster exclusivity and sharing.
GNPE improves inference for astrophysical systems.
problem Efficiently incorporating geometric properties like equivariances in neural density estimation.
method GNPE integrates equivariances into neural posterior estimation, standardizing data pose while estimating parameters.
result GNPE achieves state-of-the-art accuracy in astrophysical binary black hole inference, reducing inference times by 3 orders of magnitude.
The study quantifies decision-making risks from suboptimal classifiers and proposes methods to reduce these risks.
problem Excess risk in decision-making from suboptimal probabilistic classifiers.
method Analytical expressions and upper/lower bounds for excess risk, calibration curve estimation, grouping loss estimator.
result Identifies regimes where recalibration alone or post-training is more effective.
In many domains, scientists build complex simulators of natural phenomena that encode their hypotheses about the underlying processes. These simulators can be deterministic or stochastic, fast or slow, constrained or unconstrained, and so on. Optimizing the simulators with respect to a set of parameter values is common…
This work introduces oblivious fairness definitions for image generation.
problem Fairness in image generation with uncertain sensitive attributes.
method Introduces oblivious fairness definitions and uses Posterior Sampling.
result Conditional Proportional Representation can be achieved obliviously.
Improved sampling for network community detection.
problem Inefficient sampling from network partition posterior distributions.
method Merge-split Markov chain Monte Carlo for efficient sampling.
result Significantly improved mixing time and correct sampling.
The paper extends entropy maximization to multiscale settings and applies it to neural networks.
problem Achieving optimal risk bounds in neural networks using multiscale entropy.
method Generalizing maximum entropy to multiscale settings and applying it to neural networks.
result The multiscale Gibbs posterior can achieve a smaller excess risk than the single-scale Gibbs posterior in a teacher-student scenario.
This work explains how tempering improves Bayesian neural networks by reducing the impact of data augmentation.
problem Improper sharpening of Bayesian neural networks leads to suboptimal performance.
method Theoretical analysis and empirical evaluations of simplified settings and group convolutions.
result Tempering reduces the misspecification due to modeling augmentations as independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) data.
FP-BMA improves generalization by encouraging flat posteriors in Bayesian Model Averaging.
problem Lack of flat posterior in approximate Bayesian inference methods hinders effective Bayesian Model Averaging.
method Proposes Flat Posterior-aware Bayesian Model Averaging (FP-BMA) and Flat Posterior-aware Bayesian Transfer Learning schemes.
result FP-BMA successfully captures flat posteriors, improving generalization performance.
New research shows CPE only occurs when Bayesian posterior underfits.
problem Model misspecification leading to CPE under perfect model specification.
method Theoretical analysis of Bayesian posterior and underfitting.
result No CPE if there is no underfitting of the Bayesian posterior.
Motivation: Recent advances in technology for brain imaging and high-throughput genotyping have motivated studies examining the influence of genetic variation on brain structure. Wang et al. (Bioinformatics, 2012) have developed an approach for the analysis of imaging genomic studies using penalized multi-task regressi…
Differential privacy of Gaussian process posterior sampling
problem Privacy of posterior sample paths from Gaussian process
method Intrinsic randomness yields DP guarantees
result Intrinsic randomness yields DP guarantees
Bayesian nonparametric approach for clustering non-exchangeable groups.
problem Clustering grouped data with dependencies among groups.
method Graphical Dirichlet process modeling with Markov property.
result Efficient posterior inference algorithm developed.
Group factor analysis (GFA) methods have been widely used to infer the common structure and the group-specific signals from multiple related datasets in various fields including systems biology and neuroimaging. To date, most available GFA models require Gibbs sampling or slice sampling to perform inference, which prev…
The hierarchical Dirichlet process (HDP) has become an important Bayesian nonparametric model for grouped data, such as document collections. The HDP is used to construct a flexible mixed-membership model where the number of components is determined by the data. As for most Bayesian nonparametric models, exact posterio…
Paper proposes a new method for more accurate group testing of infected patients.
problem Identifying infected patients efficiently with reduced tests and corrected errors.
method Adaptive design of pools based on Bayesian posterior prediction using belief propagation algorithm.
result The proposed method results in more accurate identification of infected patients.
Theoretical framework for M-posteriors connects Bayesian and frequentist statistics.
problem Connecting Bayesian and frequentist approaches in statistical inference.
method Developed a theoretical framework for M-posteriors, showing asymptotic normality and frequentist consistency.
result M-posteriors are robust and contract around M-estimators under mild conditions.
New method improves generative model performance by fully conditioning variational posteriors.
problem Inaccurate inference due to partial conditioning of variational posteriors in sequential LVMs.
method Introduces fully-conditioned approximate posteriors to improve generative model performance.
result Improves generative modelling and multi-step prediction performance.
PVI seeks a posterior that makes predictions closer to true data, not approximating the Bayesian posterior.
problem Finding meaningful posterior distributions under model misspecification.
method Predictive variational inference (PVI) seeks an optimal posterior density for close predictive matching to true data.
result PVI learns a posterior that is not the same as the Bayesian posterior, but is closer to the true data generating process.
Optimized α-posteriors reduce KL divergence from true posterior in parametric misspecification.
problem Reduction of KL divergence from true posterior in parametric model misspecification.
method Derivation of Bernstein-von Mises theorem and optimization of α-posteriors. result Optimized α-posteriors minimize KL divergence from true posterior, especially in severe misspecification. This work explores how overparametrization and priors affect Bayesian neural network posteriors.
problem Symmetries, non-identifiabilities, and weight-space priors fragment and inflate BNN posteriors.
method We study the interplay between overparametrization and priors in BNN posteriors, deriving key phenomena and validating through experiments.
result Overparametrization induces structured, prior-aligned weight posterior distributions.
New priors can update posteriors without re-estimating likelihoods.
problem Degradation of classification approaches when class priors change.
method Recompute posteriors using recovered likelihoods from original posteriors and new priors.
result Dynamic update of original posteriors is possible without re-estimating likelihoods.
Bayesian learning made scalable with posteriors library.
problem Computational challenges in Bayesian learning with modern models.
method Introducing posteriors library and tempered MCMC.
result Bayesian approximations are useful and scalable.
The representation of the approximate posterior is a critical aspect of effective variational autoencoders (VAEs). Poor choices for the approximate posterior have a detrimental impact on the generative performance of VAEs due to the mismatch with the true posterior. We extend the class of posterior models that may be l…
New decision-theoretic characterization separates belief and decision posteriors.
problem Understanding the conditions under which loss-based updating coincides with Bayesian updating.
method Decision-theoretic approach to distinguish belief and decision posteriors.
result Generalized Bayes coincides with ordinary Bayesian updating only if the loss is proportional to negative log-likelihood.
Improved MALA method for neural networks uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty quantification in Bayesian neural networks.
method Corrected Stochastic MALA (csMALA) with a simplified correction term.
result Improved surrogate posterior for quantifying uncertainties in neural networks.
Increasingly complex datasets pose a number of challenges for Bayesian inference. Conventional posterior sampling based on Markov chain Monte Carlo can be too computationally intensive, is serial in nature and mixes poorly between posterior modes. Further, all models are misspecified, which brings into question the val…
New methods for scalable inference in modular models with misspecified sub-models.
problem Model misspecification in multi-modular models complicates evidence combination.
method Variational methods for approximating Cut and SMI posteriors, and Variational Meta-Posterior.
result Feasibility of analysis with multiple cuts using a single set of variational parameters.
A new framework for clustering with uncertainty quantification.
problem Lack of uncertainty quantification in clustering methods.
method Generalized Bayes framework using Gibbs posteriors and loss functions.
result Efficient algorithms for clustering and uncertainty quantification.
New method controls posterior collapse in VAEs without network architecture constraints.
problem Posterior collapse in VAEs reduces diversity of generated samples.
method Introduces Latent Reconstruction (LR) loss to control posterior collapse.
result Controls posterior collapse on various datasets without architectural constraints.
This paper explores Bayesian Neural Network posteriors, uncovering symmetries and their impact.
problem Understanding the complex posterior distribution of deep Bayesian Neural Networks.
method Investigates optimal approaches for approximating posteriors, analyzes modes, and explores visualizations.
result Uncovered weight-space symmetries and their impact on the posterior, particularly scaling symmetries.
TARP tests accuracy of generative posterior estimators.
problem Assessing the accuracy of posterior estimators from generative models.
method TARP coverage testing method.
result TARP can detect inaccurate inferences in high-dimensional spaces.
BF-VI improves posterior approximation in complex models.
problem Inefficient posterior approximations in complex models.
method Combines normalizing flows and Bernstein polynomial transformations.
result BF-VI outperforms other VI methods in approximating complex multivariate posteriors.
We use neural networks to estimate complex model posteriors efficiently.
problem Intractable likelihood functions in complex models.
method Train a neural network to map data to posterior distributions of model parameters.
result Our method converges to true posteriors in Kullback-Leibler divergence.
Bayesian nonparametric models get better posterior estimates via SPDE methods.
problem Estimating posterior distributions in nonparametric Bayesian models.
method Extending diffusion methods to SPDEs on Hilbert spaces for posterior contraction and Laplace approximation.
result Derivation of posterior contraction rates and finite-sample Bernstein von Mises results.
Proposes sampling from reverse diffusion posteriors for contextual bandits.
problem Complex distributions in contextual bandits.
method Approximate posterior sampling with a diffusion model prior using Laplace approximation.
result Empirically consistent and efficient approximations for contextual bandits.
New algorithms for fast online decision making using neural networks and martingale posteriors.
problem Online sequential decision making under uncertainty.
method Martingale posterior neural networks for fast online learning and decision making.
result Achieves competitive performance-speed trade-offs in non-stationary contextual bandits and Bayesian optimization.
New perspective on federated learning as posterior inference, improving optimization.
problem Optimizing global models in distributed learning settings.
method Formulated as posterior inference problem, using MCMC for approximate inference and federated averaging for refinement.
result Federated posterior averaging (FedPA) outperforms existing methods on benchmarks.
New learning rule simplifies Bayesian updates for deep learning.
problem Bayesian learning rule's complexity and manifold constraints.
method Lie-group approach to simplify Bayesian updates.
result New algorithm learns sparse features in deep learning.
Estimates high-dimensional posterior densities by marginal distributions and neural networks.
problem High-dimensional probability density estimation for inference is difficult.
method Direct estimation of lower-dimensional marginal distributions, using Moment Networks for fast computation of moments.
result Demonstrates estimation of gravitational wave time series and applications in cosmology.
During the past five years the Bayesian deep learning community has developed increasingly accurate and efficient approximate inference procedures that allow for Bayesian inference in deep neural networks. However, despite this algorithmic progress and the promise of improved uncertainty quantification and sample effic…
MFVI can overestimate predictive variance compared to the exact posterior
problem MFVI underestimates posterior variance
method Analyzing conjugate Bayesian Linear Regression
result MFVI can overestimate predictive variance compared to the exact posterior
Meta-learning improves Bayesian causal discovery by sampling from the posterior.
problem Difficulty in estimating the full posterior over causal structures due to large number of possible graphs and functional relationships.
method Proposes a Bayesian meta-learning model that encodes key properties of the posterior and allows for sampling causal structures.
result Meta-Bayesian causal discovery allows for reliable sampling from the posterior over causal structures.
New method uses fractional posteriors for semiparametric inference with improved uncertainty quantification.
problem Semiparametric inference with nonparametric priors and fractional posteriors.
method Established a general Bernstein--von Mises theorem for fractional posterior distributions, proposed shifted-and-rescaled credible sets.
result Fractional posterior credible sets provide reliable uncertainty quantification but have inflated size; shifted-and-rescaled set is an efficient confidence set.
Study compares chi-squared divergence and KL-divergence posteriors for PAC-Bayesian bounds.
problem Investigates optimal posteriors for PAC-Bayesian bounds using chi-squared divergence.
method Analyzes bounds for three distance functions, derives FP equations for computation.
result Chi-squared divergence based posteriors have weaker bounds and worse test errors.