MLP outperforms other deep learning models for groundwater prediction.
problem Accurate groundwater level predictions under changing climatic conditions.
method Optimized hyperparameters of deep learning models using surrogate models.
result MLP performs best in terms of prediction accuracy and time-to-solution.
Study develops ensemble machine learning framework for predicting groundwater heavy metal pollution.
problem Statistical complexity and spatial heterogeneity of heavy metal contamination in groundwater.
method Nested cross-validated ensemble machine learning with response transformations (raw, log, Gaussian copula).
result Copula-based models with DBSCAN clustering diagnostics provide the most reliable and interpretable assessments of groundwater contamination.
The paper validates statistical models for groundwater data.
problem Validating statistical models for groundwater data.
method Traditional time-series models and modern neural networks.
result Validation techniques ensure lower computational cost and robust predictions.
Modeling dynamic groundwater markets with price formation and trading strategies.
problem Understanding competitive effects in environmental markets with groundwater banking.
method Stochastic models and game theory with machine learning algorithms.
result Sub-game perfect Nash equilibria characterized by groundwater price processes.
A model for groundwater trading among stakeholders.
problem Groundwater trading among stakeholders in a basin.
method Optimization of production by agents considering water rights, consumption, and trading.
result Characterization of Nash equilibrium in a 1-period setting and initial insights into multi-period game.
Hybrid models improve groundwater level prediction and uncertainty analysis.
problem Predicting and analyzing uncertainty of monthly groundwater levels.
method Six evolutionary optimization algorithms (GOA, CSO, WA, GA, KA, PSO) hybridized with ANFIS, ANN, and SVM.
result ANFIS-GOA outperformed other models in predicting groundwater levels.
Global hydrological and land surface models are increasingly used for tracking terrestrial total water storage (TWS) dynamics, but the utility of existing models is hampered by conceptual and/or data uncertainties related to various underrepresented and unrepresented processes, such as groundwater storage. The gravity …
Paper proposes a technique to detect and predict sources of contaminants in complex systems.
problem Difficulty in identifying sources of contaminants in coupled natural and human systems.
method Developed a technique for simultaneous source detection and prediction.
result Outperforms other approaches in detecting potential groundwater contamination.
Machine learning and deep learning infer surface/groundwater exchange from temperature data.
problem Inferring surface/groundwater exchange from temperature data with high temporal resolution.
method Application of machine learning and deep learning algorithms to infer surface/groundwater exchange flux from subsurface temperature observations.
result DL methods outperform ML methods in interpreting noisy temperature data, especially with a smoothing filter.
Identification of a groundwater contaminant source simultaneously with the hydraulic conductivity in highly-heterogeneous media often results in a high-dimensional inverse problem. In this study, a deep autoregressive neural network-based surrogate method is developed for the forward model to allow us to solve efficien…
DIN framework directly models hydraulic conductivity and uncertainty.
problem Modeling hydraulic conductivity and uncertainty in groundwater flow.
method DIN utilizes DDPM as a prior learner, incorporating observational data through conditional injection mechanisms.
result DIN generates multiple constraint-satisfying realizations and accurate uncertainty quantification.
DL-PDE discovers PDEs from noisy, sparse data using neural networks and sparse regressions.
problem Discovering PDEs from noisy, sparse data.
method Combines neural networks and sparse regressions to discover PDEs from meta-data generated by a neural network.
result Achieves satisfactory results in real-world engineering settings with noisy and limited data.
Bayesian framework selects features and lags for time series forecasting.
problem Variable selection and lagged error term identification in time series models.
method Hierarchical Bayesian models with spike-and-slab priors, two-stage MCMC algorithm.
result Posterior selection consistency under mild conditions, improved predictive performance.
VED framework learns low-dimensional latent representations of physical systems.
problem Learning latent representations of complex physical systems.
method Variational Encoder-Decoder (VED) framework with KL divergence and covariance regularization.
result VED achieves lower-dimensional latent representations with improved feature disentanglement.
FAL improves formation resistivity prediction from cased boreholes with noise resistance.
problem Noise and high-frequency disaster in predicting formation resistivity from cased boreholes.
method Frequency-aware framework and temporal anti-noise block for LSTM.
result FAL achieves a 24.3% improvement in R2 over LSTM, reaching R2=0.91.
Deep learning predicts fluid flow in porous media, accelerating simulations by orders of magnitude.
problem Accurate simulation of fluid flow in complex porous media requires excessive computational resources.
method Combining deep learning with direct simulation, using Gated U-Net CNNs trained on datasets of 2D and 3D porous media.
result Deep learning predictions can reach over 90% accuracy for permeability estimation and accelerate simulations by orders of magnitude.
Machine learning detects new minerals at Mars rover landing sites.
problem Detecting rare minerals at Mars rover landing sites.
method Hierarchical Bayesian classifier trained on CRISM spectral data.
result Akaganeite, silica, and jarosite found in Jezero crater floor and NE Syrtis.
Adaptive algorithm improves nonlinear data assimilation for non-Gaussian systems.
problem Challenges of non-Gaussian statistics in data assimilation.
method Triangular measure transport with P-spline basis functions and an information criterion.
result Automatic selection of parsimonious parametrization for efficient adaptation.
VAE improves MCMC efficiency by generating diverse prior proposals.
problem Inefficient MCMC methods in Bayesian inverse problems, especially subsurface flow modeling.
method Uses Variational Autoencoder (VAE) to generate broader-spectrum prior proposals.
result VAE achieves comparable accuracy to Karhunen-Loève Expansion (KLE) and outperforms it when correlation length is unknown.
LSTM models with DI enhance streamflow forecasts across diverse regions.
problem Challenges in integrating varied discharge measurements for accurate streamflow forecasts.
method Flexible data integration (DI) using LSTM models with CNN units for lagged inputs.
result DI significantly improved streamflow forecast performance, reaching record efficiency coefficients.
A technique called 'prior laundering' uses legacy reconstructions to create uncertainty in Bayesian inverse problems.
problem Uncertainty in Bayesian inverse problems when data is uninformative.
method Using an archive of legacy reconstructions to create uncertainty in the posterior distribution, averaging the legacy posterior over measurements.
result The uncertainty reported in the posterior is inherited from the legacy reconstructions, not from the data itself.
Surrogate strategies are used widely for uncertainty quantification of groundwater models in order to improve computational efficiency. However, their application to dynamic multiphase flow problems is hindered by the curse of dimensionality, the saturation discontinuity due to capillarity effects, and the time-depende…
Accelerates MCMC sampling for large-scale problems using machine learning.
problem Efficiently sampling large-scale Bayesian inference problems with high computational cost.
method Integrates low-fidelity machine learning models into a multilevel MCMC framework.
result Significantly accelerates multilevel sampling by a factor of two with similar accuracy.
Bayesian inference for inverse problems using mean-shift interacting particles
problem Bayesian inference for inverse problems
method Amortized mean-shift interacting particles
result Improves accuracy of Bayesian inference by reducing the number of samples needed
Fuzzy prediction sets generalize binary predictions to include elements at varying confidence levels.
problem Binary prediction sets are limited; fuzzy prediction sets offer richer guarantees.
method Generalize prediction sets to fuzzy sets, showing they are e-values with merging properties.
result Optimal e-values lead to optimal fuzzy prediction sets, including optimal conformal prediction.
Paper defines predictive multiplicity and measures its severity in classification problems.
problem Challenges in machine learning due to competing models with conflicting predictions.
method Formal measures and integer programming tools for linear classification problems.
result Real-world datasets may admit competing models with wildly conflicting predictions.
This paper re-examines conformal e-prediction and its advantages over conformal prediction.
problem The relationship between conformal prediction and conformal e-prediction.
method Systematic re-examination of conformal prediction and conformal e-prediction from a modern perspective.
result Conformal e-prediction has advantages such as ease of designing conditional predictors and guaranteed validity of cross-predictors.
Two new methods improve efficiency of conformal predictive systems.
problem Efficiency of conformal predictive systems in regression problems.
method Split conformal predictive systems and cross-conformal predictive systems.
result Cross-conformal predictive systems are more efficient but not guaranteed valid.
Self-calibrating conformal prediction improves interval efficiency and offers a practical alternative.
problem Improving the reliability and uncertainty quantification of machine learning predictions.
method Combines Venn-Abers calibration and conformal prediction for binary and regression problems.
result Improves interval efficiency through model calibration and offers practical alternatives.
Study uses deep learning to predict asset prices, finds complex target processes lead to meaningless predictions.
problem Complexity of successful price prediction models hinders understanding.
method Deep learning models for high-frequency price prediction, focusing on volatility and directional prediction.
result Inadequately defined target price process renders predictions meaningless.
The paper emphasizes the importance of joint predictions over marginal predictions for decision-making.
problem The need for accurate joint predictions in decision-making problems.
method The paper analyzes combinatorial decision problems, sequential predictions, and multi-armed bandits, introducing an approximate Thompson sampling algorithm and new regret bounds.
result Accurate joint predictions are essential for good performance in decision-making problems.
Behavior modification improves prediction accuracy by nudging user behavior.
problem Improving prediction accuracy using behavior modification techniques.
method Combining prediction and behavior modification with reinforcement learning algorithms.
result Behavior modification can make predictions more certain but may not generalize.
Predictions can shape outcomes, study helps predict these effects.
problem Understanding how predictions influence real-world outcomes.
method Causal identifiability analysis of prediction-covariate-outcome relationships.
result Standard supervised learning can identify transferable relationships from predictions.
Proposes feature conformal prediction for broader application in semantic feature spaces.
problem Establishing valid prediction intervals in semantic feature spaces.
method Extends conformal prediction to semantic feature spaces using deep representation learning.
result Feature conformal prediction outperforms regular conformal prediction under mild assumptions.
Acute kidney injury (AKI) commonly occurs in hospitalized patients and can lead to serious medical complications. In order to optimally predict AKI before it develops at any time during a hospital stay, we present a novel framework in which AKI is continually predicted automatically from EHR data over the entire hospit…
AutoCP automates the construction of accurate prediction intervals.
problem Creating valid and accurate prediction intervals for machine learning models.
method AutoML framework that optimizes prediction interval length for better accuracy and less conservatism.
result AutoCP significantly outperforms benchmark algorithms in constructing accurate prediction intervals.
Proposes a method to apply conformal prediction to probabilistic time series forecasting models.
problem Obtaining accurate prediction regions for multi-step time series forecasting with probabilistic models.
method Conformalises conditional normalising flows to generate potentially disjoint prediction regions.
result Improves predictive efficiency in time series forecasting with multimodal distributions.
ICP improves prediction intervals for continuous outcomes at lower computational cost.
problem Systematic bias in point predictions that undermines their use in decision-making.
method Develops Isotonic Conformal Prediction (ICP) framework to decouple calibration from prediction-set construction.
result SICP and TICP procedures match SC-CP coverage at lower computational cost.
Optimizes predictions for specific tasks using parametrized decision analysis.
problem Optimizing predictions for specific decision tasks of interest.
method Designs a class of parametrized actions for Bayesian decision analysis.
result Derives efficient and interpretable solutions for various action parametrizations and loss functions.
New measures for prediction validity and consonant plausibility introduced.
problem Challenges in predicting future observations and quantifying prediction uncertainty.
method Introducing Type-2 validity and using consonant plausibility measures and conformal prediction.
result Achieving both Type-1 and Type-2 validity through consonant plausibility measures and conformal prediction.
RFpredInterval package builds prediction intervals for random forests and boosted forests.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in random forest and boosted forest point predictions.
method 16 methods to build prediction intervals with random forests and boosted forests.
result The proposed method outperforms existing methods in building prediction intervals.
FPPI selectively uses predictions to improve inference efficiency.
problem Improving statistical inference with limited labeled data and heterogeneous prediction quality.
method Filtered Prediction-Powered Inference (FPPI) framework.
result FPPI achieves strictly improved asymptotic efficiency compared to existing methods.
COP improves online conformal prediction by incorporating data patterns, leading to tighter prediction sets.
problem Overly conservative prediction sets in online conformal prediction methods when data distribution shifts.
method Conformal Optimistic Prediction (COP) incorporating estimated cumulative distribution function of non-conformity scores.
result COP produces tighter prediction sets with valid coverage guarantees, outperforming other methods.
Proposes a model to update industrial data predictions based on temporal changes.
problem Improving prediction accuracy in industrial data analytics by addressing changing conditions over time.
method Integrates similarity and loss functions to estimate and update prediction models adaptively.
result The data renewal model enhances prediction accuracy by identifying and updating model changes.
Unified framework for estimating random forest prediction errors.
problem Estimating prediction errors for random forests.
method Novel estimator of conditional prediction error distribution function.
result Proposed estimators enable competitive prediction intervals.
Predicts food ingredient amounts from images.
problem Predicting relative amounts of ingredients from food images.
method Proposes two deep learning models for sparse and dense predictions, with semi-automatic data pre-processing.
result Encouraging experimental results on a recipe dataset.
Most existing examples of full conformal predictive systems, split-conformal predictive systems, and cross-conformal predictive systems impose severe restrictions on the adaptation of predictive distributions to the test object at hand. In this paper we develop split-conformal and cross-conformal predictive systems tha…
This paper studies trade-offs in private prediction methods.
problem Leakage of training data information in machine learning predictions.
method Private training and private prediction methods with trade-offs.
result Private training methods outperform private prediction methods in various settings.