Modeling dynamic groundwater markets with price formation and trading strategies.
problem Understanding competitive effects in environmental markets with groundwater banking.
method Stochastic models and game theory with machine learning algorithms.
result Sub-game perfect Nash equilibria characterized by groundwater price processes.
A model for groundwater trading among stakeholders.
problem Groundwater trading among stakeholders in a basin.
method Optimization of production by agents considering water rights, consumption, and trading.
result Characterization of Nash equilibrium in a 1-period setting and initial insights into multi-period game.
Sustainable management of groundwater resources under changing climatic conditions require an application of reliable and accurate predictions of groundwater levels. Mechanistic multi-scale, multi-physics simulation models are often too hard to use for this purpose, especially for groundwater managers who do not have a…
The paper validates statistical models for groundwater data.
problem Validating statistical models for groundwater data.
method Traditional time-series models and modern neural networks.
result Validation techniques ensure lower computational cost and robust predictions.
Study develops ensemble machine learning framework for predicting groundwater heavy metal pollution.
problem Statistical complexity and spatial heterogeneity of heavy metal contamination in groundwater.
method Nested cross-validated ensemble machine learning with response transformations (raw, log, Gaussian copula).
result Copula-based models with DBSCAN clustering diagnostics provide the most reliable and interpretable assessments of groundwater contamination.
Hybrid models improve groundwater level prediction and uncertainty analysis.
problem Predicting and analyzing uncertainty of monthly groundwater levels.
method Six evolutionary optimization algorithms (GOA, CSO, WA, GA, KA, PSO) hybridized with ANFIS, ANN, and SVM.
result ANFIS-GOA outperformed other models in predicting groundwater levels.
Global hydrological and land surface models are increasingly used for tracking terrestrial total water storage (TWS) dynamics, but the utility of existing models is hampered by conceptual and/or data uncertainties related to various underrepresented and unrepresented processes, such as groundwater storage. The gravity …
Machine learning and deep learning infer surface/groundwater exchange from temperature data.
problem Inferring surface/groundwater exchange from temperature data with high temporal resolution.
method Application of machine learning and deep learning algorithms to infer surface/groundwater exchange flux from subsurface temperature observations.
result DL methods outperform ML methods in interpreting noisy temperature data, especially with a smoothing filter.
DIN framework directly models hydraulic conductivity and uncertainty.
problem Modeling hydraulic conductivity and uncertainty in groundwater flow.
method DIN utilizes DDPM as a prior learner, incorporating observational data through conditional injection mechanisms.
result DIN generates multiple constraint-satisfying realizations and accurate uncertainty quantification.
Identification of a groundwater contaminant source simultaneously with the hydraulic conductivity in highly-heterogeneous media often results in a high-dimensional inverse problem. In this study, a deep autoregressive neural network-based surrogate method is developed for the forward model to allow us to solve efficien…
VED framework learns low-dimensional latent representations of physical systems.
problem Learning latent representations of complex physical systems.
method Variational Encoder-Decoder (VED) framework with KL divergence and covariance regularization.
result VED achieves lower-dimensional latent representations with improved feature disentanglement.
In the face of growing needs for water and energy, a fundamental understanding of the environmental impacts of human activities becomes critical for managing water and energy resources, remedying water pollution, and making regulatory policy wisely. Among activities that impact the environment, oil and gas production, …
A hierarchical Bayesian classifier is trained at pixel scale with spectral data from the CRISM (Compact Reconnaissance Imaging Spectrometer for Mars) imagery. Its utility in detecting rare phases is demonstrated with new geologic discoveries near the Mars-2020 rover landing site. Akaganeite is found in sediments on the…
Adaptive algorithm improves nonlinear data assimilation for non-Gaussian systems.
problem Challenges of non-Gaussian statistics in data assimilation.
method Triangular measure transport with P-spline basis functions and an information criterion.
result Automatic selection of parsimonious parametrization for efficient adaptation.
VAE improves MCMC efficiency by generating diverse prior proposals.
problem Inefficient MCMC methods in Bayesian inverse problems, especially subsurface flow modeling.
method Uses Variational Autoencoder (VAE) to generate broader-spectrum prior proposals.
result VAE achieves comparable accuracy to Karhunen-Loève Expansion (KLE) and outperforms it when correlation length is unknown.
In recent years, data-driven methods have been developed to learn dynamical systems and partial differential equations (PDE). The goal of such work is discovering unknown physics and the corresponding equations. However, prior to achieving this goal, major challenges remain to be resolved, including learning PDE under …
Bayesian framework selects features and lags for time series forecasting.
problem Variable selection and lagged error term identification in time series models.
method Hierarchical Bayesian models with spike-and-slab priors, two-stage MCMC algorithm.
result Posterior selection consistency under mild conditions, improved predictive performance.
Surrogate strategies are used widely for uncertainty quantification of groundwater models in order to improve computational efficiency. However, their application to dynamic multiphase flow problems is hindered by the curse of dimensionality, the saturation discontinuity due to capillarity effects, and the time-depende…
Accelerates MCMC sampling for large-scale problems using machine learning.
problem Efficiently sampling large-scale Bayesian inference problems with high computational cost.
method Integrates low-fidelity machine learning models into a multilevel MCMC framework.
result Significantly accelerates multilevel sampling by a factor of two with similar accuracy.
FAL improves formation resistivity prediction from cased boreholes with noise resistance.
problem Noise and high-frequency disaster in predicting formation resistivity from cased boreholes.
method Frequency-aware framework and temporal anti-noise block for LSTM.
result FAL achieves a 24.3% improvement in R2 over LSTM, reaching R2=0.91.
LSTM models with DI enhance streamflow forecasts across diverse regions.
problem Challenges in integrating varied discharge measurements for accurate streamflow forecasts.
method Flexible data integration (DI) using LSTM models with CNN units for lagged inputs.
result DI significantly improved streamflow forecast performance, reaching record efficiency coefficients.
Bayesian inference for inverse problems using mean-shift interacting particles
problem Bayesian inference for inverse problems
method Amortized mean-shift interacting particles
result Improves accuracy of Bayesian inference by reducing the number of samples needed
Deep learning predicts fluid flow in porous media, accelerating simulations by orders of magnitude.
problem Accurate simulation of fluid flow in complex porous media requires excessive computational resources.
method Combining deep learning with direct simulation, using Gated U-Net CNNs trained on datasets of 2D and 3D porous media.
result Deep learning predictions can reach over 90% accuracy for permeability estimation and accelerate simulations by orders of magnitude.
Study optimizes market making in Chinese stock market with stochastic control and scenario analysis.
problem Limited research on market making in Chinese stock market.
method Optimal market making framework with exponential CARA utility function, accounting for market conditions and risks.
result Impact of volatility and stamp duty on market maker's profit and liquidity.
Open markets are a subset of equity markets with fixed top stocks, changing over time.
problem Understanding the dynamics and characteristics of open markets.
method Analyzing the similarities and differences between open markets and closed equity markets, and exploring specific topics like CAPM and portfolio construction.
result The equivalence of market viability and the existence of a numeraire portfolio holds in open markets, similar to closed markets.
Study applies market microstructure to Cuban informal currency market, finding market makers improve liquidity.
problem Understanding dynamics of informal currency markets.
method Modeling bid/ask intentions using Limit Order Book, applying Avellaneda-Stoikov model with Market Maker.
result Market Maker improves market quality and bid/ask dynamics.
Study uses Kalman-Filter to assess market efficiency in major stock markets.
problem Assessing market efficiency in major stock markets.
method Utilizes Kalman-Filter in two stages, assuming a trendline representing true market value.
result Significant portfolio returns in emerging and developed markets.
Recent innovations in Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) provide new opportunities and challenges for integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) into the energy supply system as active market players. By increasing integration of DERs, novel market platform should be designed for these new market …
We study the effect of globalization on the Korean market, one of the emerging markets. Some characteristics of the Korean market are different from those of the mature market according to the latest market data, and this is due to the influence of foreign markets or investors. We concentrate on the market network stru…
Study shows informed traders harm market makers but price discovery benefits outweigh costs.
problem Informed traders' impact on market makers' profitability.
method Agent-based model with heterogeneous learning agents, multi-agent reinforcement learning.
result Informed market order flow is harmful when aggregate informedness is low but beneficial as it increases.
We investigate the possibility of statistical evaluation of the market completeness for discrete time stock market models. It is known that the market completeness is not a robust property: small random deviations of the coefficients convert a complete market model into a incomplete one. The paper shows that market inc…
This thesis applies RL to market making in China's commodity market.
problem Leverage RL for market making in China's commodity market.
method Developed an automatic trading system using RL.
result RL is feasible for market making in China's commodity market.
Research predicts money market volume based on capital market and bank rates ratio.
problem Understanding the influence of capital market and bank rates on money market instruments.
method Correlation matrix and time series model to predict money market volume.
result Predictive model for money market instrument volume based on historical data.
The possibility of statistical evaluation of the market completeness and incompleteness is investigated for continuous time diffusion stock market models. It is known that the market completeness is not a robust property: small random deviations of the coefficients convert a complete market model into a incomplete one.…
This study examines how DMMs affect market liquidity and competition.
problem The impact of DMMs on market liquidity and competition.
method Agent-based simulations to explore the effects of varying competition levels and incentive structures among DMMs.
result Optimal competition among DMMs maximizes liquidity benefits without negatively impacting price discovery.
AI learns market manipulation through simulation, suggesting regulation.
problem Regulating AI to prevent market manipulation.
method Used a genetic algorithm in an artificial market simulation.
result AI discovered market manipulation as an optimal strategy.
Optimal market making strategy for electronic markets with persistent order flows.
problem Market making on electronic markets with persistent order flows.
method Formulated as a stochastic control problem, characterized by viscosity solutions, and implemented numerically.
result Characterization of an optimal market making strategy.
The paper finds that bear markets cause recessions and bull markets cause expansions, with bull markets having a stronger causal effect.
problem Understanding the asymmetric causal relationships between market conditions and economic cycles.
method Asymmetric causality tests using partial sums of positive and negative market components, with bootstrap simulations and leverage adjustments.
result Bear markets cause recessions and bull markets cause expansions, with bull markets having a stronger causal effect.
PRIME models cryptocurrency exchange market impact.
problem Understanding and predicting market impact in cryptocurrency exchanges.
method Developed a multi-agent simulation to model market impact.
result Allows better estimation of market slippage and knock-on consequences.
Article examines NFT market microstructure and trading risks.
problem Difficulty in distinguishing genuine NFTs from fads and scams.
method Analyzes price formation, market structure, and transparency.
result Provides due-diligence pointers to mitigate NFT trading risk.
In a stock market, the numeraire portfolio, if it exists, is the portfolio with the highest expected logarithmic growth rate at all times. A numeraire market is a stock market for which the market portfolio is the numeraire portfolio. We study open markets, markets comprising the higher capitalization stocks within a b…
This study evaluates prewar Japanese financial market efficiency using time-varying models.
problem Determining when prewar Japanese financial market lost its price formation function.
method Time-varying parameter model, generalized least squares-based time-varying vector autoregressive model.
result The prewar Japanese financial market lost its price formation function in 1932.
ABM simulates OTC government bond market dynamics, enhancing liquidity and stability.
problem Understanding and ensuring market stability and liquidity in OTC government bond markets.
method Developed a bespoke ABM to simulate market-maker interactions and test hypotheses.
result Greater agent diversity enhances market liquidity and reducing market-making costs improves stability.
This study examines how market makers balance risk and impact in foreign exchange markets.
problem Balancing risk management with market impact in foreign exchange markets.
method An intermediate scenario approach considering both instantaneous and permanent market impact components.
result Transient market impact is more prevalent than previously thought, challenging traditional market impact models.
Study shows how market efficiency changes during the pandemic.
problem Understanding market efficiency during the pandemic.
method Applied time-varying vector autoregression model.
result Market efficiency changes over time and can be improved by enhanced linkages.
Two markets should be considered isomorphic if they are financially indistinguishable. We define a notion of isomorphism for financial markets in both discrete and continuous time. We then seek to identify the distinct isomorphism classes, that is to classify markets. We classify complete one-period markets. We define …
We investigate the relative market efficiency in financial market data, using the approximate entropy(ApEn) method for a quantification of randomness in time series. We used the global foreign exchange market indices for 17 countries during two periods from 1984 to 1998 and from 1999 to 2004 in order to study the effic…
Market-maker optimizes quotes based on strategic market-takers' behavior.
problem Optimizing market-making strategies in a strategic trading environment.
method Mean-field game approach to model strategic market-takers and derive optimal controls.
result Derivation of optimal controls for market-maker and market-taker.