A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
We introduce an evolutionary game with feedback between perception and reality, which we call the reality game. It is a game of chance in which the probabilities for different objective outcomes (e.g., heads or tails in a coin toss) depend on the amount wagered on those outcomes. By varying the `reality map', which rel…
AlphaZero's reward function is replaced with a total ordering, enabling self-play without balancing.
The game theory techniques are used to find the equilibrium of a market. Game theory refers to the ways in which strategic interactions among economic agents produce outcomes with respect to the preferences (or utilities) of those agents, where the outcomes in question might have been intended by none of the agents. Th…
Partial-monitoring games constitute a mathematical framework for sequential decision making problems with imperfect feedback: The learner repeatedly chooses an action, opponent responds with an outcome, and then the learner suffers a loss and receives a feedback signal, both of which are fixed functions of the action a…
We study the relationship between social media output and National Football League (NFL) games, using a dataset containing messages from Twitter and NFL game statistics. Specifically, we consider tweets pertaining to specific teams and games in the NFL season and use them alongside statistical game data to build predic…
ISMCTS-BR learns best responses in large games, approximating worst-case performance.
New algorithm learns from noisy and correlated game outcomes.
New method learns optimal prediction strategies in adversarial games.
We introduce a topological combinatorial game called the Link Smoothing Game. The game is played on the shadow of a link diagram and legal moves consist of smoothing precrossings. One player's goal is to keep the diagram connected while the other player's goal is to disconnect the shadow. We make significant progress t…
New algorithms optimize decision rules in strategic scenarios, minimizing prediction risk and incentivizing better outcomes.
A new multi-armed bandit framework with credal sets for uncertain outcomes.
Agents learn to outperform in trading by using past and current prices.
Financial markets, with their vast range of different investment opportunities, can be seen as a system of many different simultaneous games with diverse and often unknown levels of risk and reward. We introduce generalizations to the classic Kelly investment game [Kelly (1956)] that incorporates these features, and us…
Optimizes football play calls using reinforcement learning.
A simplified Bayesian approach for online sports rating.
We introduce a new class of context dependent, incomplete information games to serve as structured prediction models for settings with significant strategic interactions. Our games map the input context to outcomes by first condensing the input into private player types that specify the utilities, weighted interactions…
We provide a simple and efficient algorithm for adversarial -action -outcome non-degenerate locally observable partial monitoring game for which the -round minimax regret is bounded by , matching the best known information-theoretic upper bound. The same algorithm also achieves…
Understanding player behavior is fundamental in game data science. Video games evolve as players interact with the game, so being able to foresee player experience would help to ensure a successful game development. In particular, game developers need to evaluate beforehand the impact of in-game events. Simulation opti…
Optimal strategies are found for a repeated betting game using diffusion approximation.
Twitter has been proven to be a notable source for predictive modelling on various domains such as the stock market, the dissemination of diseases or sports outcomes. However, such a study has not been conducted in football (soccer) so far. The purpose of this research was to study whether data mined from Twitter can b…
Algorithms are often used to produce decision-making rules that classify or evaluate individuals. When these individuals have incentives to be classified a certain way, they may behave strategically to influence their outcomes. We develop a model for how strategic agents can invest effort in order to change the outcome…
Fair insurance contracts are designed to handle default risk using cooperative game theory.
Gradient Descent Ascent converges to von-Neumann solution in hidden zero-sum games.
Quantum strategy optimizes wealth growth in a double-or-nothing game.
The paper develops classifiers that encourage positive adaptation in machine learning settings.
Model-free reinforcement learning (RL) can be used to learn effective policies for complex tasks, such as Atari games, even from image observations. However, this typically requires very large amounts of interaction -- substantially more, in fact, than a human would need to learn the same games. How can people learn so…
No-regret learning fails to converge to Nash equilibria in mixed strategies.
Social learning can make financial markets inefficient, but individual learning can fix this.
Survey of algorithms to correct past mistakes in prediction.
Accurately predicting the outcome of sporting events has been a goal for many groups who seek to maximize profit. What makes this challenging is that the outcome of an event can be influenced by many factors that dynamically change across time. Oddsmakers attempt to estimate these factors by using both algorithmic and …
The study analyzes games and social hierarchies, incorporating luck and depth of competition.
We study an original problem of pure exploration in a strategic bandit model motivated by Monte Carlo Tree Search. It consists in identifying the best action in a game, when the player may sample random outcomes of sequentially chosen pairs of actions. We propose two strategies for the fixed-confidence setting: Maximin…
Partial monitoring is a general model for sequential learning with limited feedback formalized as a game between two players. In this game, the learner chooses an action and at the same time the opponent chooses an outcome, then the learner suffers a loss and receives a feedback signal. The goal of the learner is to mi…
The paper analyzes competition among fund managers using excess logarithmic returns and constructs games to find optimal allocations.
The large majority of risk-sharing transactions involve few agents, each of whom can heavily influence the structure and the prices of securities. This paper proposes a game where agents' strategic sets consist of all possible sharing securities and pricing kernels that are consistent with Arrow-Debreu sharing rules. F…
Random forest model predicts tennis match outcomes with 80% accuracy.
In this paper, we perform a minimalistic quantization of the classical game of tic-tac-toe, by allowing superpositions of classical moves. In order for the quantum game to reduce properly to the classical game, we require legal quantum moves to be orthogonal to all previous moves. We also admit interference effects, by…
Agents trained with reinforcement learning deviate from Nash equilibrium in optimal execution game.
This work shows how evaluation metrics can be seen as fair gambles.
The standard theory of coherent risk measures fails to consider individual institutions as part of a system which might itself experience instability and spread new sources of risk to the market participants. In compliance with an approach adopted by Shapley and Shubik (1969), this paper proposes a cooperative market g…
New framework for predicting decisions that influence their own outcomes.
The paper analyzes a game where players must balance short-term and long-term interests, leading to cooperative or competitive outcomes.
Cricket betting is a multi-billion dollar market. Therefore, there is a strong incentive for models that can predict the outcomes of games and beat the odds provided by bookers. The aim of this study was to investigate to what degree it is possible to predict the outcome of cricket matches. The target competition was t…
Study uses complex networks and machine learning to predict soccer match outcomes.
We investigate a randomization procedure undertaken in real option games which can serve as a basic model of regulation in a duopoly model of preemptive investment. We recall the rigorous framework of [M. Grasselli, V. Leclère and M. Ludkovsky, Priority Option: the value of being a leader, International Journal of Theo…
We methodologically address the problem of Q-value overestimation in deep reinforcement learning to handle high-dimensional state spaces efficiently. By adapting concepts from information theory, we introduce an intrinsic penalty signal encouraging reduced Q-value estimates. The resultant algorithm encompasses a wide r…
New framework ensures valid uncertainty estimates for any data stream changes.
Paper compares two forecasters using novel online inference methods.