A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
This study analyzes and predicts airline delays using machine learning models.
problem Improving the accuracy of predicting airline flight delays.
method The study combines airline and weather datasets, using various machine learning models (Logistic Regression, Naive Bayes, K-NN, Decision Tree, Random Forest) to predict flight delays.
result The Random Forest model achieved an accuracy of 82% in predicting flight delays of 15 minutes or more.
Truncated Lévy flights are random walks in which the arbitrarily large steps of a Lévy flight are eliminated. Since this makes the variance finite, the central limit theorem applies, and as time increases the probability distribution of the increments becomes Gaussian. Here, truncated Lévy flights with correlated fluct…
The problem of an arbitrary truncated Levy flight description using the method of cumulant approach has been solved. The set of cumulants of the truncated Levy distribution given the assumption of arbitrary truncation has been found. The influence of truncation shape on the truncated Levy flight properties in the Gauss…
In this work we consider the problem of anomaly detection in heterogeneous, multivariate, variable-length time series datasets. Our focus is on the aviation safety domain, where data objects are flights and time series are sensor readings and pilot switches. In this context the goal is to detect anomalous flight segmen…
Gaussian Graphical Models (GGMs) or Gauss Markov random fields are widely used in many applications, and the trade-off between the modeling capacity and the efficiency of learning and inference has been an important research problem. In this paper, we study the family of GGMs with small feedback vertex sets (FVSs), whe…
The generalized correlation approach, which has been successfully used in statistical radio physics to describe non-Gaussian random processes, is proposed to describe stochastic financial processes. The generalized correlation approach has been used to describe a non-Gaussian random walk with independent, identically d…
The introduction of automated flight control and management systems have made possible aircraft designs that sacrifice arodynamic stability in order to incorporate stealth technology intro their shape, operate more efficiently, and are highly maneuverable. Therefore, modern flight management systems are reliant on mult…
Obtaining reliable uncertainty estimates of neural network predictions is a long standing challenge. Bayesian neural networks have been proposed as a solution, but it remains open how to specify their prior. In particular, the common practice of an independent normal prior in weight space imposes relatively weak constr…
We study a simple modification to the conventional time of flight mass spectrometry (TOFMS) where a \emph{variable} and (pseudo)-\emph{random} pulsing rate is used which allows for traces from different pulses to overlap. This modification requires little alteration to the currently employed hardware. However, it requi…
We compare our results on empirical analysis of financial data with simulations of two stochastic models of the dynamics of stock market prices. The two models are (i) the truncated Lévy flight recently introduced by us and (ii) the ARCH(1) and GARCH(1,1) processes. We find that the TLF well describes the scaling and i…
Paper tackles action delays in reinforcement learning, proposing a delay-aware framework.
problem Action delays degrade reinforcement learning performance in real-world systems.
method Formal definition of delay-aware MDP, transformation into standard MDP with augmented states, delay-aware model-based reinforcement learning framework.
result Proposed framework is more efficient in training and transferable between systems with various delay durations.
Paper tackles delays in multi-agent reinforcement learning, improving performance.
problem Challenges in reinforcement learning due to delays in real-world systems.
method Proposes a novel framework for multi-agent reinforcement learning with delays, using Delay-Aware Markov Games and centralized-decentralized training.
result Demonstrates significant improvement in performance with delay-aware multi-agent reinforcement learning.
Study on synchronization in financial markets with time delays.
problem Understanding market dynamics and synchronization in financial systems with time delays.
method Examined a system of coupled non-linear delay-differential equations, linearized for small delays, and analyzed collective dynamics using bifurcation diagrams and numerical solutions.
result Demonstrated that limit cycles can be maintained in coupled N-asset models with appropriate parameterization, leading to market synchronization.
Travel providers such as airlines and on-line travel agents are becoming more and more interested in understanding how passengers choose among alternative itineraries when searching for flights. This knowledge helps them better display and adapt their offer, taking into account market conditions and customer needs. Som…
Predicting conversion rates (CVRs) in display advertising (e.g., predicting the proportion of users who purchase an item (i.e., a conversion) after its corresponding ad is clicked) is important when measuring the effects of ads shown to users and to understanding the interests of the users. There is generally a time de…
We study a variant of the stochastic K-armed bandit problem, which we call "bandits with delayed, aggregated anonymous feedback". In this problem, when the player pulls an arm, a reward is generated, however it is not immediately observed. Instead, at the end of each round the player observes only the sum of a number…