FlexCodeTS is a flexible time series density estimator.
problem Estimating conditional densities for time series data.
method Nonparametric conditional density estimator based on arbitrary regression methods.
result FlexCodeTS adapts its convergence rate based on the chosen regression method.
New algorithm estimates treatment effects for more efficient contextual bandits.
problem Contextual bandits struggle with action-independent reward redundancies.
method Reduces contextual bandits to heterogeneous treatment effect estimation.
result Heterogeneous treatment effect estimation leads to more efficient model estimation.
Extends Hawkes process for flexible residual modeling in point processes.
problem Modeling high-frequency financial data with complex residual distributions.
method Introduces self and mutually exciting point process with discretely Markovian dynamics.
result Flexible residual distributions improve intensity modeling and high-frequency data estimation.
Frengression models causal data flexibly and faithfully.
problem Challenges in robust benchmarking and evaluation of causal inference with real-world data.
method Introduces frengression, a deep generative model for joint distribution of covariates, treatments, and outcomes.
result Frengression provides accurate estimation and flexible simulation of multivariate, time-varying data.
Geodesic curves improve flexibility in covariance estimation.
problem Inflexible covariance families limit spatiotemporal modeling.
method Use geodesic curves to build more flexible covariance families.
result Natural projection minimizes geodesic distance to sample covariance.
A new clustering method uses nonparametric smoothing to estimate cluster membership functions.
problem Clustering with flexible, nonparametric estimation.
method Nonparametric smoothing to estimate cluster membership functions without explicit modelling assumptions.
result The method automatically determines the number of clusters and level of flexibility.
New methods estimate causal effects using front-door criterion in presence of unmeasured confounders.
problem Estimating causal effects in observational studies with unmeasured confounders.
method Developed novel one-step and targeted minimum loss-based estimators for front-door assumptions.
result Established conditions for root-n consistency and asymptotic linearity.
Flexible DNN for survival data, avoiding proportional hazards assumption.
problem Survival analysis with complex interactions and non-proportional hazards.
method Partially linear DNN model with a flexible nonparametric component.
result FLEXI-Haz achieves optimal convergence rates and asymptotic efficiency.
Unified view of score estimators for flexible densities.
problem Estimating the score from unknown distributions.
method Regularized nonparametric regression framework.
result Unified convergence analysis and new estimators with desirable properties.
Gradient Boosted Mixed Models estimate mean and variance components for clustered data.
problem Limited flexibility in linear mixed models for complex settings.
method Gradient Boosting extended to mixed models with likelihood-based gradients and flexible base learners.
result Accurate recovery of variance components and improved predictive accuracy.
NoLimits.jl: Flexible and Composable Nonlinear Mixed-Effects Modeling in Julia
problem Flexible and composable nonlinear mixed-effects modeling
method Macro-based modeling language and unified interface
result Substantially expand the range of nonlinear mixed-effects models
Localized debiased machine learning simplifies estimating quantile treatment effects.
problem Estimating quantile treatment effects in causal inference with many covariates and flexible relationships.
method Localized debiased machine learning (LDML) avoids learning the full nuisance function by estimating only at a single initial guess.
result LDML enables practically-feasible and theoretically-grounded efficient estimation of quantile treatment effects.
New method avoids IV limitations for flexible estimation.
problem Nonparametric estimation of IV regressions with multiple solutions.
method Minimax penalized estimator avoiding identification and closedness conditions.
result Strong L2 convergence rate without closedness condition. RealCause provides a realistic benchmark for causal inference.
problem Lack of a reliable benchmark for comparing causal effect estimators.
method Flexible generative models to create a benchmark that is both ground-truth and realistic.
result Evaluation of over 1500 causal estimators provides evidence for choosing hyperparameters using predictive metrics.
We investigate a generic problem of learning pairwise exponential family graphical models with pairwise sufficient statistics defined by a global mapping function, e.g., Mercer kernels. This subclass of pairwise graphical models allow us to flexibly capture complex interactions among variables beyond pairwise product. …
From only positive (P) and unlabeled (U) data, a binary classifier could be trained with PU learning, in which the state of the art is unbiased PU learning. However, if its model is very flexible, empirical risks on training data will go negative, and we will suffer from serious overfitting. In this paper, we propose a…
We present a method to derive local estimates for some classes of fully nonlinear elliptic equations. The advantage of our method is that we derive Hessian estimates directly from C0 estimates. Also, the method is flexible and can be applied to a large class of equations.
Improves neural network estimates using IFs without needing more data.
problem Bias and lack of flexibility in neural network models.
method MultiNet and MultiStep methods using Influence Functions.
result Improves model robustness and facilitates statistical inference without additional data.
Many estimators of the average effect of a treatment on an outcome require estimation of the propensity score, the outcome regression, or both. It is often beneficial to utilize flexible techniques such as semiparametric regression or machine learning to estimate these quantities. However, optimal estimation of these r…
This paper explores how representation learning can improve design-based causal inference.
problem Estimating causal effects in design-based studies is challenging due to the need for optimal weights.
method The authors propose an end-to-end estimation procedure that learns a flexible representation to minimize the error in choosing a representation.
result The proposed method is competitive in various causal inference tasks and shows promise for improving design-based weights.
SPQR package uses neural networks for flexible quantile regression.
problem Flexible modeling of non-linear relationships in quantile regression.
method Monotonic splines and neural networks for density estimation; model-agnostic covariate effects.
result Allows for non-linear and quantile-specific effects.
Post-calibration improves the accuracy of causal effect estimation.
problem Improperly calibrated propensity scores lead to inaccurate causal effect estimation.
method Performed a simulation study to assess the impact of post-calibration on causal effect estimation.
result Post-calibration reduces the error in estimating the average treatment effect, especially for expressive uncalibrated statistical estimators.
Flexible model captures commodity skews with maturity effects.
problem Capturing market skew in commodity futures with maturity effects.
method Non-parametric extension with leverage functions, calibrated using Monte Carlo simulation.
result Model accurately captures market smile and implied variance accumulation.
Gradient Boosted Normalizing Flows improve flexibility of NFs without increasing complexity.
problem Improving flexibility of normalizing flows without increasing complexity.
method Gradient Boosting applied to normalizing flows to create a mixture model structure.
result GBNFs outperform non-boosted NFs and produce better results with simpler components.
GBMixed boosts mixed models for clustered data, estimating mean and variance flexibly.
problem Flexible estimation of mean and variance components in clustered data.
method Gradient Boosting framework for linear mixed models with likelihood-based gradients.
result GBMixed accurately recovers complex nonlinear fixed effects and covariances.
Flexible model for complex relationships using Bayesian nonparametrics.
problem Complex relationships between variables not well captured by simple models.
method Hierarchical generation of nonlinear features, Bayesian inference, variable selection.
result Find interpretable models with a small set of important features.
Combines MCTM and NF for flexible multivariate density regression with interpretable marginals.
problem Difficult interpretation of flexible NF models and limitations of MCTM in flexibility.
method Hybrid approach combining MCTM for interpretable marginals and NF for complex joint distributions.
result Demonstrates versatility and improved performance compared to MCTM and other NF models.
Model uses HS-FP framework for South African asset allocation.
problem Develops a flexible non-parametric asset allocation model for South African markets.
method Historical Simulation with Flexible Probabilities (HS-FP) framework, using relative entropy for distribution estimation.
result HS-FP model outperforms classic MVO and EW benchmarks in out-of-sample performance.
Diffusion models enhance SBI with flexible parameter and observation learning.
problem Efficient and accurate estimation of latent parameters from simulations and real data.
method Score-based diffusion models, guidance, score composition, flow matching, consistency models, joint modeling.
result Flexibility and versatility in modeling various problems.
New method combines randomization tests and flexible models for valid inference without splitting data.
problem Valid inference in randomized panel experiments with complex effect heterogeneity.
method Model-assisted randomization tests that estimate unsigned CATE from residualized outcomes.
result CATE-assisted tests control Type I error and achieve higher power than alternatives.
New framework estimates treatment effects based on preferences.
problem Estimating treatment effects with flexible outcomes.
method Preference-based Conditional Treatment Effect (CPTE) framework.
result CPTE provides interpretable targets and new identifiability conditions.
We prove estimates interpolating the Schwarz Lemmata of Royden-Yau and the ones recently established by the author. These more flexible estimates provide additional information on (algebraic) geometric aspects of compact Kähler manifolds with nonnegative holomorphic sectional curvature, nonnegative $\Ric_\ell$ or posit…
SNVI combines likelihood estimation with variational inference for efficient Bayesian inference.
problem Bayesian inference in models with intractable likelihoods.
method Sequential Neural Variational Inference (SNVI) that combines likelihood-estimation with variational inference.
result SNVI is more computationally efficient than previous algorithms without sacrificing accuracy.
C-Learner improves stability of plug-in estimators for causal inference.
problem Limited overlap between treatment and control groups leads to unstable estimates.
method Constrained learning framework that achieves stability and asymptotic properties.
result Constrained learning produces stable estimates with desirable asymptotic properties.
Adapts score matching for missing data in flexible settings.
problem Learning data distribution with missing data.
method Adapted score matching to handle missing data, providing two approaches: importance weighting and variational.
result Variational approach performs best in high-dimensional settings.
Flexible evidential deep learning improves uncertainty quantification in machine learning.
problem Overconfident predictions in machine learning models can lead to serious consequences.
method Proposes flexible evidential deep learning (F-EDL) to model uncertainty over class probabilities using a flexible Dirichlet distribution.
result Empirically demonstrates state-of-the-art uncertainty quantification performance across diverse scenarios.
We propose a flexible method for estimating value functions in reinforcement learning without parametric assumptions.
problem Lack of interpretability in reinforcement learning models, especially in healthcare applications.
method Nonparametric additive model using local kernel regression and basis expansion.
result Personalized, adaptive recommendations for postoperative recovery.
Flexible Hawkes model with Gaussian process self-effects for time-dependent data.
problem Modeling time-dependent point processes with history dependence and self-effects.
method Extended Hawkes process with Gaussian process self-effects for both excitatory and inhibitory types, using Bayesian inference and mean-field variational approximation.
result Efficient approximate Bayesian inference achieved via data augmentation and mean-field variational approach.
Empirical Gaussian Processes learn flexible priors from data.
problem Limited effectiveness of standard Gaussian process kernels.
method Estimate mean and covariance functions empirically from data.
result Empirical GPs converge to closest GP to real data generating process.
Flexible method for estimating frequencies in large datasets using sketching.
problem Estimating frequencies in very large datasets efficiently and accurately.
method Data-adaptive conformal inference method based on a smaller sketch of data.
result Proves validity of frequentist confidence intervals under data exchangeability.
Neural network based generative models with discriminative components are a powerful approach for semi-supervised learning. However, these techniques a) cannot account for model uncertainty in the estimation of the model's discriminative component and b) lack flexibility to capture complex stochastic patterns in the la…
Flexible copula model using implicit generative neural networks.
problem Limited flexibility of parametric copulas and curse of dimensionality in non-parametric methods.
method Implicit generative neural networks to model high-dimensional copula distributions with unspecified marginals.
result Demonstrated flexibility and performance on various datasets.
Paper proposes a method to estimate scientific parameters in hybrid models without relying on model architecture.
problem Estimating unknown parameters in hybrid models combining machine learning and scientific models.
method Sharpness-aware minimization adapted for hybrid modeling, focusing on model simplicity.
result Demonstrates effectiveness of SAM-based hybrid model learning for scientific parameter estimation.
The paper proposes a method to estimate treatment effects using CAR designs with additional covariates.
problem Estimating distributional treatment effects in CAR designs with additional covariates.
method Flexible distribution regression framework that incorporates additional covariates using machine learning methods.
result The proposed estimator attains the semiparametric efficiency bound for distributional treatment effects under CAR.
High-risk domains require reliable confidence estimates from predictive models. Deep latent variable models provide these, but suffer from the rigid variational distributions used for tractable inference, which err on the side of overconfidence. We propose Stochastic Quantized Activation Distributions (SQUAD), which im…
Two conformal methods create flexible conditional predictive bands without strong assumptions.
problem Achieving asymptotic conditional coverage without strong dependence assumptions.
method Flexible distribution-free conditional predictive bands using density estimators.
result Methods achieve better control of conditional coverage and smaller length than previous methods.
CPME embeds counterfactual outcomes in RKHS for flexible policy evaluation.
problem Estimating counterfactual policy outcomes for decision-making.
method Counterfactual Policy Mean Embedding (CPME) framework in RKHS, plug-in and doubly robust estimators, kernel test statistic.
result Doubly robust estimator improves convergence rates and asymptotic normality.
New tractable density models from squaring neural networks.
problem Flexible models for probability distributions in machine learning.
method Squared Neural Family (SNEFY) models formed by squaring neural network outputs and normalizing.
result SNEFYs are fully tractable with closed form normalizing constants in many cases.