Estimates time-varying parameters from two OLS estimates.
problem Time-varying linear regression with hidden dynamics.
method Combines two OLS estimates for stable linear dynamics.
result Finite sample guarantee on estimation error.
On-device research index
arXiv research
A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
168,657 papers · 148 categories
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48 results for “finite-sample dynamics”
Study best-response learning dynamics in zero-sum polymatrix games under full and minimal information settings.
problem Learning dynamics in zero-sum polymatrix games under different information settings.
method Two-timescale learning dynamics combining smoothed best-response updates and TD-learning for estimating local payoff functions.
result Polynomial-time finite-sample guarantees for convergence to an ε-Nash equilibrium in the minimal information case.
We learn linear models from nonlinear systems using multiple trajectories and regularization.
problem Identifying linear models from data when the underlying dynamics are nonlinear.
method Multiple trajectories data acquisition followed by regularized least squares.
result Learn linearized dynamics with arbitrarily small error given enough samples.
Finite-Sample Bounds for Adaptive Inverse Reinforcement Learning using Passive Langevin Dynamicscs.LG
Paper analyzes PSGLD for adaptive IRL with finite-sample bounds.
problem Estimating cost function of a forward learner using noisy gradients.
method Passive stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (PSGLD) algorithm.
result Explicit bounds on 2-Wasserstein distance between PSGLD sample measure and stationary measure.
We introduce a simulation method for dynamic portfolio valuation and risk management building on machine learning with kernels. We learn the dynamic value process of a portfolio from a finite sample of its cumulative cash flow. The learned value process is given in closed form thanks to a suitable choice of the kernel.…
Learning Linearized Models from Nonlinear Systems under Initialization Constraints with Finite Datastat.ML
We identify linear models from nonlinear systems with initialization constraints.
problem Identifying linear models from nonlinear systems with initialization constraints.
method Multiple trajectories-based deterministic data acquisition algorithm followed by regularized least squares.
result We provide a finite sample error bound on the learned linearized dynamics.
Study learns dynamics of linear systems from multiple short trajectories.
problem Learning dynamics of autonomous linear systems from multiple short trajectories.
method Finite sample analysis for stable and unstable systems, adjusting trajectory length for marginally stable systems.
result Learning rate of for both stable and unstable systems.
Develops a method to detect changes in linear systems with temporal correlations.
problem Detect abrupt changes in time series data with temporal correlations.
method Data-dependent threshold for online change point detection in linear dynamical systems.
result Achieves a pre-specified upper bound on the probability of false alarms and provides a finite-sample-based bound for detection probability.
Empirical Transfer Operators and Finite-Sample Change Detection for Noisy Expanding Interval Mapsstat.ML
Detect changes in noisy dynamical systems using empirical approximations and finite-sample bounds.
problem Change detection in noisy dynamical systems
method Partition-based empirical approximations and finite-state stationary distribution stability
result Finite-sample bound for empirical stationary density
We study finite sample properties of estimators of power-law cross-correlations -- detrended cross-correlation analysis (DCCA), height cross-correlation analysis (HXA) and detrending moving-average cross-correlation analysis (DMCA) -- with a special focus on short-term memory bias as well as power-law coherency. Presen…
Finite-Sample Properties of Model Specification Tests for Multivariate Dynamic Regression Modelsecon.EM
Proposes a new test for validating multivariate dynamic regression models.
problem Inadequate exogeneity conditions for conventional model specification tests in dynamic systems.
method Develops a generalized Durbin estimator for multiple-equation systems with dynamic dependencies, and constructs Wald tests.
result Bootstrap-based Wald tests improve finite-sample size control and validate the null hypothesis in multifactor models.
Paper provides unbiased spectral moment estimates from finite data.
problem Challenges in estimating spectral moments from limited data.
method Dynamic programming approach to estimate spectral moments of kernel integral operator.
result Demonstrates consistency with theoretical spectra and practical utility in neural networks.
Learn dynamics of a system using auxiliary data from similar systems.
problem Learning dynamics of a linear system with limited data.
method Weighted least squares approach, incorporating auxiliary data.
result Auxiliary data can help reduce intrinsic error due to noise.
This paper approaches the definition and properties of dynamic convex risk measures through the notion of a family of concave valuation operators satisfying certain simple and credible axioms. Exploring these in the simplest context of a finite time set and finite sample space, we find natural risk-transfer and time-co…
Paper analyzes online tensorial ICA convergence with stochastic approximation.
problem Online tensorial ICA convergence analysis.
method Stochastic approximation for nonconvex optimization.
result Sharp finite-sample error bound of .
This study examines biases in flow matching samplers using finite-sample estimation.
problem Biases in flow matching samplers when using finite-sample surrogates.
method Finite-sample plug-in estimation and hierarchy of empirical FM models.
result Exact empirical minimizer and smoothed plug-in regime identified for affine conditional flows.
Algorithm learns stochastic system dynamics from data.
problem Recovering interpretable symbolic expressions for stochastic systems.
method Data-driven, trajectory averaging, drift-informed correction.
result Recover coefficients and densities to within 5% and 0.01 in total variation, respectively.
AMP method reconstructs rank-one matrices from noisy data efficiently.
problem Reconstructing rank-one matrices with prior structural information from noisy observations.
method Approximate Message Passing (AMP) with random initialization.
result AMP from random initialization converges rapidly and globally.
We consider the dynamic linear regression problem, where the predictor vector may vary with time. This problem can be modeled as a linear dynamical system, with non-constant observation operator, where the parameters that need to be learned are the variance of both the process noise and the observation noise. While var…
We show in this note that the Sobolev Discrepancy introduced in Mroueh et al in the context of generative adversarial networks, is actually the weighted negative Sobolev norm , that is known to linearize the Wasserstein distance and plays a fundamental role in the dynamic formulation of…
Ensemble method for fast portfolio valuation and risk management.
problem Dynamic portfolio valuation and risk management from cash flow data.
method Regression trees for dynamic value process learning.
result Fast and accurate estimator with closed-form solution.
Study learns state representations from observations for control, proving guarantees.
problem Learning state representations from high-dimensional observations for control.
method Cost-driven approach, learning latent state model to predict costs.
result Proves finite-sample guarantees for near-optimal state representation and controller.
We derive new theoretical results on the properties of the adaptive least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (adaptive lasso) for time series regression models. In particular, we investigate the question of how to conduct finite sample inference on the parameters given an adaptive lasso model for some fixed valu…
Unified coverage analysis for linear off-policy evaluation in reinforcement learning.
problem Lack of a unified understanding of coverage parameters in linear off-policy evaluation.
method Developed a novel finite-sample analysis for LSTDQ algorithm, introducing feature-dynamics coverage.
result Unified understanding of coverage parameters in linear off-policy evaluation.
A new metric compares dynamical systems using operator eigenvalues.
problem Comparing and interpolating nonlinear dynamical systems from trajectory data.
method Representing systems as distributions of operator eigenvalues and projectors, defining a spectral-Grassmann Wasserstein metric.
result The proposed metric outperforms standard operator-based distances in machine learning applications.
New bounds show current methods overestimate system parameter errors.
problem Current bounds overestimate parameter errors in system identification.
method Utilized asymptotic normality and second-order decomposition.
result Obtained finite-sample bounds matching optimal rates up to constants.
Paper analyzes convergence rates of two time-scale AC and NAC algorithms.
problem Finite-sample convergence rate analysis of two time-scale AC and NAC algorithms.
method Developed novel techniques for bias error and convergence rate analysis.
result Established non-asymptotic convergence rates for two time-scale AC and NAC.
Off-policy learning in dynamic decision problems is essential for providing strong evidence that a new policy is better than the one in use. But how can we prove superiority without testing the new policy? To answer this question, we introduce the G-SCOPE algorithm that evaluates a new policy based on data generated by…
This work obtains novel finite sample guarantees for Principal Component Analysis (PCA). These hold even when the corrupting noise is non-isotropic, and a part (or all of it) is data-dependent. Because of the latter, in general, the noise and the true data are correlated. The results in this work are a significant impr…
The paper develops methods to estimate optimal treatment sequences under policy constraints.
problem Estimating the best sequence of treatments over multiple stages for individuals.
method Empirical welfare maximization approach, solving treatment assignment sequentially or simultaneously.
result Established convergence rates and upper bounds for estimation methods.
Study cost-driven state representation learning for control from partial observations.
problem Learning state representation for control from partial and high-dimensional observations.
method Cost-driven state representation learning via predicting cumulative costs.
result Established finite-sample guarantees for near-optimal representation and controller.
Proposes overnight volatility model for better market dynamics.
problem Lack of high-frequency data during close-to-open period.
method Itô diffusion model with weighted least squares estimation.
result Developed and validated overnight volatility model.
SARSA is an on-policy algorithm to learn a Markov decision process policy in reinforcement learning. We investigate the SARSA algorithm with linear function approximation under the non-i.i.d.\ data, where a single sample trajectory is available. With a Lipschitz continuous policy improvement operator that is smooth eno…
Dynamic treatment strategies on networks amplify policy impact through spillovers.
problem Effective dynamic treatment allocation in network settings.
method Q-Ising, a three-stage pipeline integrating Bayesian dynamic Ising model, treatment adoption histories, and offline reinforcement learning.
result Adaptive targeting outperforms static centrality benchmarks in Indian village microfinance networks and synthetic data.
This paper analyzes momentum Q-learning with finite-sample guarantees.
problem Improving Q-learning performance with momentum schemes.
method Proposes MomentumQ algorithm integrating Nesterov and Polyak's momentum schemes, analyzes convergence for function approximations.
result Establishes finite-sample convergence rates for MomentumQ, demonstrating better performance than vanilla Q-learning.
New framework predicts AMP behavior in spiked models for finite iterations.
problem Understanding AMP dynamics in high-dimensional spiked models.
method Developed a non-asymptotic framework for AMP in spiked matrix estimation.
result Predicted AMP behavior for up to iterations in synchronization.
The paper studies dynamic ranking and translation synchronization from evolving pairwise comparison graphs.
problem Dynamic pairwise comparison graphs in evolving environments.
method Proposes estimators based on smoothness-penalized least squares and projection onto low frequency eigenspace.
result Finite sample bounds for the estimation error, proving consistency of the proposed methods.
Estimates MLDS using tensor decomposition, improving upon existing methods.
problem Learning mixtures of linear dynamical systems from input-output data.
method Proposes a moment-based estimator using tensor decomposition.
result Improves sample complexity bounds for estimating MLDS.
Algorithm identifies bilinear dynamical systems from noisy data.
problem Learning a realization of a partially observed bilinear dynamical system.
method Regression of outputs to highly correlated covariates for Markov-like parameters.
result High probability error bounds on identification algorithm under uniform stability assumption.
Paper analyzes Greedy-GQ for reinforcement learning with Markovian noise.
problem Analyzing Greedy-GQ for reinforcement learning with Markovian noise.
method Develops finite-sample analysis for Greedy-GQ with linear function approximation under Markovian noise.
result Provides theoretical justification for choosing stepsizes for faster convergence.
Dynamic models improve CoVaR forecasts for financial system risks.
problem Improving forecasts of systemic risk measures like CoVaR.
method Two-step M-estimator using bivariate scoring functions for VaR and CoVaR.
result CoCAViaR models generate superior CoVaR predictions.
Unified framework for solving fixed-point equations in deterministic and stochastic settings.
problem Solving fixed-point equations for seminorm-contractive operators in both deterministic and stochastic contexts.
method Fixed-point theorem and stochastic approximation analysis.
result Unified finite-sample bounds for various reinforcement learning algorithms.
Researchers develop a method to control nonlinear systems with Koopman operator regression.
problem Controlling nonlinear systems with finite action spaces.
method Koopman operator regression for dynamics estimation and model predictive control for control.
result The method yields a linear switching predictive model for control.
The paper analyzes GTD algorithms with finite-sample bounds.
problem Convergence rate analysis of GTD family of algorithms.
method Formulated as stochastic gradient algorithms and analyzed using saddle-point error.
result Obtained finite-sample bounds on GTD performance.
Entropy estimation of symbol sequencescond-mat.stat-mech
We discuss algorithms for estimating the Shannon entropy h of finite symbol sequences with long range correlations. In particular, we consider algorithms which estimate h from the code lengths produced by some compression algorithm. Our interest is in describing their convergence with sequence length, assuming no limit…
Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexitystat.ML
New findings show modern neural networks have finite sample complexity in o-minimal structures.
problem Understanding the learnability of modern neural networks in a broad context.
method Analyzing feedforward neural networks definable in o-minimal structures.
result Modern neural networks, including MLPs, CNNs, GNNs, and transformers, have finite sample complexity in the agnostic PAC setting.
Estimates barycenter in geodesic spaces with finite sample bounds.
problem Estimating the barycenter of a distribution in geodesic spaces.
method Finite sample error bounds, Hoeffding- and Bernstein-type concentration inequalities, efficient algorithms.
result Statistical guarantees for efficient barycenter computation.
In modern data science, dynamic tensor data is prevailing in numerous applications. An important task is to characterize the relationship between such dynamic tensor and external covariates. However, the tensor data is often only partially observed, rendering many existing methods inapplicable. In this article, we deve…