Meta-learners improve causal effect estimation in small samples.
problem Estimating causal effects using machine learning methods.
method Sample-splitting and cross-fitting to reduce overfitting bias.
result Meta-learners' performance depends on sample size and estimation procedure.
This paper analyzes momentum Q-learning with finite-sample guarantees.
problem Improving Q-learning performance with momentum schemes.
method Proposes MomentumQ algorithm integrating Nesterov and Polyak's momentum schemes, analyzes convergence for function approximations.
result Establishes finite-sample convergence rates for MomentumQ, demonstrating better performance than vanilla Q-learning.
Develops robust MDPs for unknown disturbances with performance guarantees.
problem Unknown disturbance distribution in MDPs.
method Empirical distribution, sublevel set of distance function, weak convergence, concentration inequality.
result Robust optimal value function converges to true optimal value function with increasing sample sizes.
Paper analyzes PSGLD for adaptive IRL with finite-sample bounds.
problem Estimating cost function of a forward learner using noisy gradients.
method Passive stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (PSGLD) algorithm.
result Explicit bounds on 2-Wasserstein distance between PSGLD sample measure and stationary measure.
In the information-based paradigm of inference, model selection is performed by selecting the candidate model with the best estimated predictive performance. The success of this approach depends on the accuracy of the estimate of the predictive complexity. In the large-sample-size limit of a regular model, the predicti…
The paper analyzes GTD algorithms with finite-sample bounds.
problem Convergence rate analysis of GTD family of algorithms.
method Formulated as stochastic gradient algorithms and analyzed using saddle-point error.
result Obtained finite-sample bounds on GTD performance.
Proposes a robust FMR model for handling sample heterogeneity.
problem Handling sample heterogeneity with a single regression model.
method Clusters samples and jointly models multiple incomplete mixed-type targets.
result Achieves state-of-the-art performance on synthetic and real-world data.
We provide finite-sample analysis of a general framework for using k-nearest neighbor statistics to estimate functionals of a nonparametric continuous probability density, including entropies and divergences. Rather than plugging a consistent density estimate (which requires k→∞ as the sample size $n \to \in…
This work analyzes tree-based methods from a ranking perspective, providing insights and new statistics.
problem Understanding the effectiveness of tree-based methods in finite-sample settings, especially symbolic feature selection.
method Local ranking perspective, finite-sample analysis, oracle bounds, posterior contraction results, concordant divergence statistics.
result New insights and statistics for evaluating symbolic feature mappings.
MF-TRPO optimizes MFGs with finite sample guarantees.
problem Computing approximate Nash equilibria in MFGs.
method Extends TRPO to MFGs, providing convergence guarantees.
result Theoretical guarantees on MF-TRPO's convergence.
The paper improves PCS approximation for ranking and selection under limited simulation budgets.
problem Improving finite sample performance in Ranking and Selection.
method Develops a Bahadur-Rao type expansion for PCS, proposes a novel FCBA policy.
result FCBA policy achieves superior PCS performance compared to traditional methods.
We consider a finite-horizon multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem in a Bayesian setting, for which we propose an information relaxation sampling framework. With this framework, we define an intuitive family of control policies that include Thompson sampling (TS) and the Bayesian optimal policy as endpoints. Analogous to TS…
Deep learning method improves regression accuracy.
problem Nonparametric regression challenges.
method Over-parametrized deep neural networks with logistic activation, gradient descent, special topology, random initialization, and data-dependent learning rate.
result Theoretical bound on L2 error and improved finite sample performance. New bounds derived for KG algorithm's performance in finite time.
problem Best arm identification problem in multi-armed bandit.
method Theoretical analysis of finite-time performance, deriving bounds for sample allocation, error probability, and regret.
result Upper and lower bounds for the probability of error and simple regret of the KG algorithm.
This work studies the statistical performance of Sinkhorn iterations in estimating Schrödinger bridges.
problem Estimating Schrödinger bridges with limited samples.
method Intermediate Sinkhorn iterations applied to the time-dependent drifts of SDEs.
result Established a statistical bound on the squared total variation error of Sinkhorn bridge iterations.
Paper provides finite-sample guarantees for Wasserstein DRO without dimensionality curse.
problem Tackles empirical success of Wasserstein DRO in operations and ML with performance guarantees.
method Develops non-asymptotic framework for analyzing out-of-sample performance and generalization bound.
result First finite-sample guarantee for generic Wasserstein DRO problems without curse of dimensionality.
Study proposes efficient estimators for matrix-valued linear regression under sparsity assumptions.
problem Estimation of parameters in matrix-valued linear regression models.
method Explicit optimization-free estimators for matrix-valued linear regression models with sparsity assumptions.
result Established non-asymptotic convergence rates for the proposed estimators.
Paper presents robust boosting methods for label noise.
problem Boosting methods degrade in noisy environments.
method Robust Minimax Boosting (RMBoost) with theoretical guarantees.
result RMBoost provides strong classification accuracy and robustness.
New model-free DR-RL algorithm with finite sample complexity.
problem Limited model-free DR-RL methods with convergence guarantees or sample complexities.
method Integrates Multi-level Monte Carlo (MLMC) technique with threshold mechanism.
result First model-free DR-RL approach with finite sample complexity for total variation and Chi-square divergence.
Paper introduces a new reinforcement learning method with improved performance.
problem Designing and analyzing efficient reinforcement learning algorithms.
method Proximal gradient temporal difference learning (GTD) with accelerated algorithm GTD2-MP.
result GTD algorithms have linear complexity and improved convergence rate.
Paper proposes a diagnostic tool for evaluating model performance out-of-sample.
problem Evaluating model performance on unseen data.
method Uses a finite calibration dataset to assess future losses.
result Provides guarantees under weak assumptions and quantifies distribution shifts.
Exact inference method for Wasserstein distance with finite-sample coverage.
problem Asymptotic approximation methods for Wasserstein distance lack finite-sample validity.
method Selective Inference inspired approach for exact inference.
result Valid confidence interval for Wasserstein distance with finite-sample coverage.
Unified method for MMD variance estimation improves accuracy and computational efficiency.
problem Variance estimation for MMD in nonparametric testing.
method Unified finite-sample characterization of MMD variance through U-statistic and Hoeffding decomposition; exact acceleration method for univariate case.
result Unified estimators improve accuracy and computational efficiency for MMD variance.
The article proposes a method to make valid insurance claim predictions without relying on specific models.
problem Prediction of insurance claims using statistical models can be unreliable due to model misspecification, selection effects, and lack of finite-sample validity.
method The article employs conformal prediction, a machine learning strategy that is model-free and tuning-parameter-free, ensuring finite-sample validity.
result The proposed method guarantees valid predictions at a pre-assigned coverage probability level and performs well in insurance applications, including meeting Solvency II requirements.
Study shows DQN's performance degrades with temporal dependence in data.
problem Temporal dependence in replayed data affects DQN's performance.
method Modelled τ-mixing data, derived risk bounds, and empirical validation. result Temporal dependence leads to a degradation in DQN's performance rate.
New method improves zeroth-order stochastic optimization with adaptive sampling.
problem Optimization problems without gradient information.
method Adaptive sampling quasi-Newton method using finite differences.
result Significant improvement in performance with adaptive sample sizes.
Optimizes data collection for ranking and selection problems.
problem Identifying the best system from multiple solutions with limited data.
method Sequential sampling algorithm with MPB estimator and kernel ridge regression.
result OSAR achieves optimal sampling ratios almost surely in the limit.
Bitcoin volatility analysis shows decreasing HE with longer sampling periods.
problem Understanding volatility patterns in Bitcoin using different sample sizes.
method Examined Bitcoin data to analyze Hurst exponent (HE) and multifractality.
result HE decreases as sampling period increases, indicating rough volatility.
This study analyzes LTS in sparse models with finite sample error bounds.
problem Robust regression in high-dimensional sparse models with limited data.
method Non-asymptotic analysis of LTS error bounds.
result Established finite sample error bounds for LTS in sparse models.
New technique reduces imitation learning performance gap in finite samples.
problem Imitation learning performance gap in finite samples.
method Replay estimation to reduce empirical variance in finite samples.
result Achieves optimal performance gap of $\widetilde{O} \left( \min({H^{3/2}} / {N}, {H} / {\sqrt{N}}
ight)$.
Proposes a method to create shorter, more accurate prediction intervals.
problem Challenges in achieving both conditional validity and interval efficiency in complex settings.
method Uses a conformal-style calibration method for neural network responses, adjusting to empirical PIT distribution.
result Demonstrates better conditional calibration and shorter intervals than existing methods.
Kernelized convex clustering handles non-linear and non-convex data.
problem Lack of effective clustering methods for non-linear and non-convex data.
method Kernelized convex clustering in RKHS.
result Superior performance compared to state-of-the-art techniques.
The OLS estimator optimally identifies stable linear systems with a finite number of samples.
problem Identifying stable linear systems with a finite number of samples.
method Finite-time analysis of the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimator for stable linear systems.
result The OLS estimator achieves optimal sample complexity for stable systems, matching existing lower bounds up to universal factors.
FaiREE provides fair classification with guarantees for small datasets.
problem Fairness in classification often requires large sample sizes and distributional assumptions.
method FaiREE offers finite-sample and distribution-free fairness guarantees.
result FaiREE achieves optimal accuracy and satisfies various fairness notions.
Proposes SVI for covariate-shift generalization with sparse variable independence.
problem Covariate-shift generalization with limited data and unstable variables.
method Introduces sparsity constraint and combines reweighting and selection in an iterative way.
result Improves covariate-shift generalization performance on synthetic and real-world datasets.
Proposes a neural network method to combine nonprobability and probability survey samples.
problem Combining nonprobability and probability survey samples for accurate population mean estimation.
method Uses a deep neural network to estimate sampling scores from nonprobability samples and combines them with probability sample information.
result Proposed estimators improve robustness to parametric propensity-score misspecification, especially for nonlinear selection mechanisms.
Confidence intervals improve evaluation of binary prediction rules in data mining.
problem Uncertainty in performance measures estimation from finite datasets.
method Asymptotic normal approximations for confidence intervals, with a blurring correction.
result Improved finite sample coverage probabilities and general performance measures inference.
New algorithm improves causal discovery in biomedical data.
problem Stability and accuracy issues in causal discovery algorithms.
method Exploits temporal structure and tiered background knowledge.
result Increases accuracy in finite samples for causal structure estimation.
Clustering of data sets is a standard problem in many areas of science and engineering. The method of spectral clustering is based on embedding the data set using a kernel function, and using the top eigenvectors of the normalized Laplacian to recover the connected components. We study the performance of spectral clust…
We study the distribution of the adaptive LASSO estimator (Zou (2006)) in finite samples as well as in the large-sample limit. The large-sample distributions are derived both for the case where the adaptive LASSO estimator is tuned to perform conservative model selection as well as for the case where the tuning results…
A permutation-based SW test achieves minimax-optimal power for two-sample testing.
problem Nonparametric two-sample testing using the sliced Wasserstein distance.
method Proposes a permutation-based SW test and analyzes its performance.
result Achieves minimax separation rate n−1/2 over multinomial and bounded-support alternatives. Neural causal discovery methods fail to accurately uncover causal structures due to the faithfulness property.
problem Accuracy in neural causal discovery is limited, especially when distinguishing between existing and non-existing causal relationships.
method Systematic evaluation of neural causal discovery methods, focusing on their performance in finite sample regimes and their ability to recover ground-truth graphs.
result Neural networks lack the precision to reliably recover ground-truth causal graphs, even for small graphs and large sample sizes.
Validates policies using past observational data with guarantees about out-of-sample performance.
problem Evaluating decision policies using past data observed under a different policy.
method Sample-splitting method to draw inferences about the entire loss distribution with finite-sample coverage guarantees.
result Valid inferences about out-of-sample loss with finite-sample coverage guarantees, accounting for model misspecifications.
A new method optimizes spatial sampling for level set estimation in one dimension.
problem Efficiently localizing regions above/below a threshold function.
method Finite-horizon search procedure balancing estimation error and travel distance.
result Method significantly improves estimation accuracy at lower travel costs.
This work analyzes actor-critic methods for faster convergence.
problem Finite-time analysis and sample complexity of two-time-scale actor-critic methods.
method Non-asymptotic analysis under non-i.i.d. setting, proving convergence to first-order stationary point.
result Actor-critic method finds a first-order stationary point with ildeO(ε−2.5) sample complexity. Super learner with Huber loss improves cost prediction and causal effect estimation in healthcare expenditure data.
problem Challenges in modeling healthcare expenditure distributions with standard super learning methods.
method Proposes a super learner using Huber loss, a robust loss function that down-weights outliers.
result Demonstrates appreciable finite-sample gains in cost prediction and causal effect estimation.
Proposes a TS approach for Bayesian optimization with preferential feedback.
problem Optimizing with preference feedback in complex applications.
method Uses Thompson Sampling with a dueling kernel and anchor invariance.
result Performance matches standard TS for scalar feedback in finite time.
Projected random forests improve circular data prediction with adaptive arc length and finite-sample coverage.
problem Regression with circular responses.
method Adapting linear-response models to circular data using projection and random forest out-of-bag mechanism.
result Projected random forest out-of-bag conformal prediction sets are more efficient and shorter than alternative methods.