Paper uses machine learning to evaluate financial simulations.
problem Quantify the realism of simulated financial time series.
method Machine learning classification of simulated vs real financial data.
result Improved simulation methods through competition results.
SFAG generates realistic financial data that passes trading tests.
problem Financial generative models often produce unrealistic and unstable trading outcomes.
method Introduces SFAG, a GAN variant that aligns stylized facts and optimizes with adversarial loss.
result SFAG generates synthetic data that preserves stylized facts and supports robust trading strategies.
LLM-based trading systems vary in execution realism and reproducibility.
problem LLM-based trading systems vary in execution realism and reproducibility.
method Reproducibility audit of 30 trade-relevant primary studies.
result LLM-based trading systems vary in execution realism and reproducibility.
Generative Adversarial Networks simulate realistic market interactions.
problem Lack of agent-level historical data limits market simulation realism.
method Conditional Generative Adversarial Networks (CGANs) trained on real data.
result CGAN-based synthetic market generator outperforms previous methods in market responsiveness and realism.
Unified framework evaluates synthetic financial data models.
problem Data scarcity and confidentiality in finance hinder model development and testing.
method Multi-criteria evaluation of three generative paradigms: ARIMA-GARCH, VAEs, and TimeGAN.
result TimeGAN achieves the best balance between realism and temporal coherence.
The paper discusses quantifying realism in generated images.
problem Designing functions to reliably distinguish realistic data from unrealistic data.
method Drawing on insights from algorithmic information theory, the paper introduces the notion of a universal critic.
result A good generative model alone is insufficient to solve the problem of realism quantification.
The history of research in finance and economics has been widely impacted by the field of Agent-based Computational Economics (ACE). While at the same time being popular among natural science researchers for its proximity to the successful methods of physics and chemistry for example, the field of ACE has also received…
MarS simulates financial markets using generative models.
problem Simulating realistic financial market effects.
method Order-level generative foundation model (LMM) for realistic, interactive, and controllable order generation.
result Strong scalability and robust realism in MarS.
The preceding three decades have seen the emergence, rise, and proliferation of machine learning (ML). From half-recognised beginnings in perceptrons, neural nets, and decision trees, algorithms that extract correlations (that is, patterns) from a set of data points have broken free from their origin in computational c…
Machine learning improves financial stress testing in Indian markets.
problem Conventional stress testing limitations in Indian financial markets.
method Dimensionality reduction, latent factor modeling, Variational Autoencoders, Monte Carlo simulation.
result Improved flexibility, robustness, and realism in financial stress testing.
LOB-Bench benchmarks generative AI for financial data, outperforming traditional models.
problem Lack of consensus on evaluating generative AI models for financial data.
method Python-based benchmark with LOB statistics and market impact metrics.
result Generative autoregressive models outperform traditional models in LOB data.
Develops a new model for controllable and realistic traffic simulation.
problem Lack of models that offer both controllability and realism in traffic simulation.
method Guided Conditional Diffusion (CTG) model using diffusion modeling and differentiable logic.
result Improves controllability-realism tradeoff over strong baselines.
TraderTalk uses LLMs to simulate human trading interactions in financial markets.
problem Simulating realistic human trading interactions in financial markets.
method Hybrid ABM with LLM-generated behaviors for detailed conversations.
result Successfully replicates trade-to-order volume ratios in financial markets.
New insights into image compression trade-offs with private randomness.
problem Trade-off between compression rate and perceptual quality in image compression.
method Characterization of rate-distortion trade-off with private randomness under different realism constraints.
result Encoder private randomness is not useful if compression rate is below source entropy, even with limited common and decoder private randomness.
We use multiple measures of graph complexity to evaluate the realism of synthetically-generated networks of human activity, in comparison with several stylized network models as well as a collection of empirical networks from the literature. The synthetic networks are generated by integrating data about human populatio…
Paper proposes evaluation methods for climate change illustrations.
problem Lack of metrics to compare realism in conditional generative models.
method Adapted and assessed several existing metrics, including FID.
result FID with Inception-V3 embeddings correlates best with human realism.
TRADES generates realistic market simulations for financial modeling.
problem Generating realistic and responsive market simulations for financial tasks.
method TRADES uses a transformer-based denoising diffusion probabilistic engine to generate time series order flows conditioned on market state.
result TRADES improves market simulation metrics by 3.27-3.48 over state-of-the-art (SoTA) methods.
Framework for transitioning financial models from risk-neutral to real-world measure.
problem Transitioning financial models from risk-neutral to real-world measure to better reflect market dynamics and investor preferences.
method Leveraging probability theory, specifically Girsanov's theorem, to incorporate real-world dynamics into financial models.
result Validation of the robustness and practical relevance of the methodology through case studies involving financial forecasts and stress tests.
The paper evaluates and improves uncertainty estimates in neural networks for safety-critical applications.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in neural networks for safety-critical systems.
method Proposes a statistical test for evaluating uncertainty realism in neural networks and transfers a classification architecture to image-to-image tasks.
result The variational U-Net architecture significantly improves uncertainty realism in image-to-image tasks compared to a plain model.
JAX-LOB simulates thousands of LOBs for RL training.
problem Efficient simulation of large LOBs for RL training.
method GPU-accelerated JAX implementation of LOB simulator.
result JAX-LOB processes thousands of LOBs in parallel with reduced processing time.
Agent-based model simulates market dynamics with real-time order matching.
problem Realistic simulation of market dynamics with realistic price impact.
method Agent-based model with asynchronous, event-time order matching.
result Realistic price impact curves and stylized facts presented.
Agents learn to draw with human-like abstraction and realism.
problem Training generative models to produce realistic images without supervision.
method Reinforcement learning agents in a simulated painting environment, trained with a discriminator network.
result Generative agents can produce images with visual abstraction and realism.
Data assimilation for subsurface flow using latent diffusion models shows that ensemble Kalman methods may overestimate posterior uncertainty, while Monte Carlo sampling is more reliable.
problem Data assimilation for subsurface flow
method Ensemble Kalman smoother and Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling
result Monte Carlo sampling is more reliable than ensemble Kalman methods
Study reveals stylized facts in German bond futures markets.
problem Understanding market dynamics in German bond futures.
method Analyzed tick-by-tick data of four German bond futures contracts.
result Uncovered commonalities and unique characteristics across different futures.
New coding theorem shows achievable rate matches theoretical limit.
problem Unknown existence of encoders and decoders for RDPF.
method Used stochastic, variable-length codes to prove RDPF achievable.
result Achievable rate matches theoretical rate-distortion-perception function.
Diffusion-GAN uses diffusion to improve GAN training stability and realism.
problem Stability and realism issues in training GANs.
method Diffusion-GAN employs a forward diffusion chain to generate Gaussian-mixture distributed instance noise, with adaptive diffusion process and timestep-dependent discriminator.
result Diffusion-GAN produces more realistic images with higher stability and data efficiency.
CounteRGAN generates realistic, actionable counterfactuals for machine learning models.
problem Creating realistic and actionable counterfactuals for machine learning models.
method Applying Residual GANs to improve counterfactual realism and actionability.
result CounteRGAN produces counterfactuals with improved realism and actionability, achieving real-time applicability.
GUIDE-VAE generates user-guided data with improved realism and performance.
problem Generating data points for multi-user datasets while considering user information.
method Conditional generative model that integrates user embeddings and a pattern dictionary-based covariance composition.
result GUIDE-VAE outperforms conventional VAEs in multi-user settings, especially under data imbalance.
Study assesses market simulation metrics to highlight discrepancies between real and simulated markets.
problem Lack of fidelity in market simulation methods leads to discrepancies between real and simulated market data.
method Surveyed and applied a set of reference metrics to real and simulated market data.
result Significant discrepancies remain between real and simulated markets.
Generative model for time series using Schrödinger bridges with jumps.
problem Creating realistic synthetic time series from observed data.
method Entropic optimal transport, Schrödinger bridge framework, jump-diffusion process.
result Jump-diffusion Schrödinger bridge model generates more realistic time series.
New model simulates stock market microstructure with learning agents.
problem Lack of realistic agent learning in past financial models.
method Designed a next-generation MAS stock market simulator with model-free reinforcement learning.
result Model can faithfully reproduce market microstructure metrics.
Examines optimal risk sharing with realistic risk attitudes, finding risk seeking in certain subdomains.
problem Optimal risk sharing with empirically realistic risk attitudes.
method Allows for risk-seeking agents, generalizes expected utility, and uses counter-monotonic improvement theorem.
result First empirical results on optimal risk sharing with realistic risk attitudes.
SocialInteractionGAN generates realistic human interactions from low-dimensional data.
problem Generating realistic human interactions from limited data.
method Adversarial architecture with a recurrent encoder-decoder generator and dual-stream discriminator.
result SocialInteractionGAN produces high-quality action sequences of interacting people.
DiffVolume generates realistic volume snapshots for LOBs.
problem Generating high-dimensional volume snapshots in LOBs is challenging.
method Conditional Diffusion model for volume generation.
result DiffVolume outperforms in realism, counterfactual generation, and downstream prediction.
Extends driving model to control agent behavior in simulations.
problem Simulate realistic driving behavior for autonomous systems.
method Introduces Control-ITRA method to influence agent behavior through waypoint assignment and target speed modulation.
result Demonstrates controllable, infraction-free trajectories while preserving realism.
This paper uses CGANs to simulate and improve trading agent performance in limit order books.
problem Improving trading agent performance in limit order book environments.
method Investigates conditional generative models (CGANs) for order book simulation and adversarial attacks to enhance realism and robustness.
result CGANs can be improved to better simulate real market conditions and are more robust to adversarial attacks.
Generative Adversarial Networks create realistic brain MRI images.
problem Lack of sufficient training data for medical research.
method Experimented three GAN architectures with different loss functions and hyperparameter tuning.
result Achieved high-quality, realistic synthetic MRIs with gradient penalty and mini-batch similarity layer.
Study compares different scoring rules for machine-learned weather forecasts, finding scale-awareness improves forecast realism.
problem Improving the accuracy of machine-learned probabilistic weather forecasts.
method Comparison of scoring rules (CRPS, fair global energy score, graph energy score) and analysis of their impact on forecast field spectra.
result Scale-awareness improves forecast realism, particularly in the tropics.
Optimizes credit index option hedging with reinforcement learning.
problem Finding the best strategy for hedging credit index options.
method Applied reinforcement learning with TRVO algorithm in a realistic setting.
result The derived hedging strategy outperforms traditional methods.
Quantum theory challenges traditional cause-effect relations, showing causal influences even without Bell inequality violations.
problem Challenging traditional concepts of cause-effect relations in quantum mechanics.
method Introducing a general framework to estimate causal influences without interventions or classical/quantum assumptions.
result Every pure bipartite entangled state violates classical bounds on causal influence, negating the idea that Bell inequalities are the only signature of incompatibility.
TRIBE model uses LLMs to simulate human trading behavior in bond markets.
problem Complexities in decentralized bond market transactions.
method Agent-based model augmented with LLMs to simulate human-like decision-making.
result Slight trade aversion in LLMs can lead to complete market collapse.
Modeling the impact of the order flow on asset prices is of primary importance to understand the behavior of financial markets. Part I of this paper reported the remarkable improvements in the description of the price dynamics which can be obtained when one incorporates the impact of past returns on the future order fl…
Volatility forecasting and return prediction in high-frequency Chinese equity markets.
problem Improving statistical forecasting performance and economic strategy outcomes in equity markets.
method Developing a sequential two-stage framework combining realized volatility modeling and XGBoost return prediction.
result Regime-aware volatility forecasting outperforms baseline models.
Study flaws in generative model evaluation metrics, especially for diffusion models.
problem Flaws in existing metrics for evaluating generative models, particularly for diffusion models.
method Systematic study of generative models, human perception experiments, and analysis of feature extractors.
result State-of-the-art perceptual realism of diffusion models is not reflected in commonly reported metrics.
New method evaluates text-to-image synthesis for realism, variety, and semantic accuracy.
problem Lack of metrics revealing semantic accuracy in text-to-image synthesis.
method Uses Inception network representations and t-SNE visualization for semantic evaluation.
result Classification accuracy of generated images to real images' visual concepts correlates with semantic accuracy.
Study coevolutionary trading-agent dynamics in continuous strategies.
problem Understanding adaptive trading-agent interactions in complex markets.
method Experimental study of adaptive automated trading agents in a continuous strategy space.
result High-dimensional coevolutionary dynamics pose challenges in market analysis.
Single-image super-resolution (SISR) is a canonical problem with diverse applications. Leading methods like SRGAN produce images that contain various artifacts, such as high-frequency noise, hallucinated colours and shape distortions, which adversely affect the realism of the result. In this paper, we propose an altern…
Pseudo rehearsal uses non-photo-realistic images to save resources without sacrificing performance.
problem Catastrophic forgetting in neural networks when learning new tasks.
method Synthetically generate non-photo-realistic images to rehearse previous tasks.
result Non-photo-realistic images can be used for rehearsal without sacrificing performance and significantly reduce resource consumption.