Global catastrophe risk pools increase financial resilience by diversifying risk and including more countries.
problem Low- to middle-income countries rely heavily on foreign aid for recovery from extreme weather events, which is slow and uncertain.
method Developed a method to form global catastrophe risk pools that maximize risk diversification and select countries with low bilateral correlations or low shares in the pool risk.
result Global pooling increases risk diversification, lowers countries' shares in the pool risk, and increases the number of countries benefiting from risk pooling.
Study shows targeting students with intermediate predicted outcomes is most effective for financial aid renewal.
problem Determining which students to target for financial aid renewal to maximize effectiveness.
method Used causal forest to estimate heterogeneous treatment effects and targeted students accordingly; compared targeting low vs high predicted probability outcomes.
result Targeting students with intermediate predicted outcomes yields the highest effectiveness in financial aid renewal.
Quantum optimization aids in financial crash prediction and portfolio management.
problem Hard financial optimization problems.
method Quantum algorithms for financial crashes and portfolio optimization.
result Quantum strategies improve financial prediction and portfolio management.
Enhances pairs trading with neural networks and Kalman Filters.
problem Inaccurate linear models in pairs trading lead to suboptimal performance.
method Augments Kalman Filter with Neural Networks to improve financial indicator extraction.
result Empirically shows improved trading performance compared to benchmarks.
Improved ABFMs capture market complexities, aiding policy decisions.
problem Limited usefulness of current ABFMs due to missing microstructure and agent behaviors.
method Developed ABMMS with realistic market structure, communication, and auction mechanisms; populated with adaptive agents.
result Generated data from ABMMS more accurately reflects real market phenomena.
A growing body of studies on systemic risk in financial markets has emphasized the key importance of taking into consideration the complex interconnections among financial institutions. Much effort has been put in modeling the contagion dynamics of financial shocks, and to assess the resilience of specific financial ma…
Study analyzes deep learning models for financial sentiment in earnings calls.
problem Leveraging NLP for sentiment analysis in financial transcripts.
method Comparative analysis of BERT, FinBERT, and ULMFiT models.
result Models' strengths and limitations in financial sentiment analysis.
Enhanced CNN for financial data improves predictive accuracy and stability.
problem Complexity and variability in financial data.
method Normalization and Gradient Reduction Architecture.
result Improvement in model accuracy and stability.
This review covers AI in finance, challenges, techniques, and opportunities.
problem Challenges and opportunities in AI applications in finance.
method Comprehensive categorization and overview of AI research in finance over decades.
result A dense roadmap of AI challenges, techniques, and opportunities in finance.
Study proposes a new method for deep portfolio optimization using residual factors.
problem Non-stationary financial market makes traditional machine learning methods ineffective.
method Predict distribution of residual factors using a novel neural network architecture with financial inductive biases.
result Demonstrated improved performance on U.S. and Japanese stock market data.
Method identifies financial rogue waves close to their onset.
problem Identifying extreme financial events close to their onset.
method Analogy between rogue waves in optics and financial volatility, using Schrödinger equation with potential shaped by Kerr nonlinearity.
result Numerical gradient spikes at the onset of extreme financial events.
The paper develops a causal machine learning framework to optimize aid allocation.
problem Optimizing aid allocation to reduce new HIV infections in poor countries.
method The framework uses a balancing autoencoder, counterfactual generator, and inference model to predict heterogeneous treatment effects.
result The framework predicts a reduction of up to 3.3% in new HIV infections, saving 50,000 lives.
LSTM networks improve stock price prediction accuracy.
problem Enhancing stock price forecasting accuracy.
method LSTM networks with hyperparameter tuning and feature selection.
result 53% improvement in predictive accuracy.
The intermarket analysis, in particular the lead-lag relationship, plays an important role within financial markets. Therefore a mathematical approach to be able to find interrelations between the price development of two different financial underlyings is developed in this paper. Computing the differences of the relat…
Research quantifies financial exclusion risks in UK, focusing on cash infrastructure and socio-economic factors.
problem Localised financial exclusion in the UK as cash infrastructure declines.
method Developed a composite indicator using various input variables.
result Financial exclusion is more prevalent in deprived communities and affluent areas.
Research evaluates three risk models for portfolio construction during market downturns.
problem Challenges in constructing quantitative portfolios using statistical risk models.
method Three statistical risk models tested on 1,000 stocks across four periods.
result Models consistently outperform market returns in various crises.
Deep learning models improve financial price forecasting accuracy.
problem Accurately predicting financial time series prices.
method Review of recent advancements in deep learning models for price forecasting.
result Deep learning models outperform traditional methods in financial price forecasting.
Model predicts Mozambique bank failures, aiding risk management.
problem Lack of bankruptcy prediction model in Mozambique banking sector.
method Linear Discriminant Analysis method, using financial indicators.
result Model accurately predicted 84% of bank failures 1 year before Central Bank intervention.
FinLlama uses a fine-tuned Llama 2 model for financial sentiment analysis.
problem Accurate financial sentiment analysis for better trading decisions.
method Fine-tuning Llama 2 7B model on financial sentiment data, using a generator-classifier scheme.
result FinLlama provides nuanced insights into financial news articles, enhancing portfolio management.
Paper explores generalization of AID-based bi-level optimization methods.
problem Uncertainty in generalization properties of AID-based bi-level optimization methods.
method Uniform stability analysis and convergence study of AID-based methods.
result AID-based methods can achieve similar generalization as single-level nonconvex problems.
Market Microstructure is the investigation of the process and protocols that govern the exchange of assets with the objective of reducing frictions that can impede the transfer. In financial markets, where there is an abundance of recorded information, this translates to the study of the dynamic relationships between o…
ECC Analyzer uses LLMs to predict stock volatility from ECCs.
problem Leveraging unstructured ECC data for stock volatility prediction.
method Uses large language models to extract and fuse textual and audio features from ECCs.
result ECC Analyzer outperforms traditional benchmarks in volatility prediction.
Enhanced financial trading system using multi-agent LLMs with layered memory.
problem Inefficient prioritization of tasks in LLMs due to their memory processing.
method Introducing a multi-agent framework with layered memories and inter-agent debate.
result Superior automated trading accuracy and decision robustness.
Study predicts customer data sharing in Open Banking and explains key factors.
problem Predicting and explaining customer data sharing in Open Banking environments.
method Hybrid data balancing strategy with ADASYN and NEARMISS, XGBoost models, SHAP, CART.
result 91.39% accuracy for inflow and 91.53% for outflow predictions, revealing influential features.
Modelling financial time series as a time change of a simpler process has been proposed in various forms over the years. One of such recent approaches is called volatility homogenisation decomposition, and has been designed specifically to aid the forecasting of price changes on financial markets. The authors of this m…
Approximate probabilistic inference algorithms are central to many fields. Examples include sequential Monte Carlo inference in robotics, variational inference in machine learning, and Markov chain Monte Carlo inference in statistics. A key problem faced by practitioners is measuring the accuracy of an approximate infe…
Tech sector decouples from non-tech sectors post-2015, predicting economic growth.
problem Understanding the relationship between technology and economic growth.
method ARIMA modeling, stationarity tests, data wrangling, exploratory data analysis.
result The technology sector decouples from non-technology sectors post-2015 and predicts economic growth.
Long term investment is one of the major investment strategies. However, calculating intrinsic value of some company and evaluating shares for long term investment is not easy, since analyst have to care about a large number of financial indicators and evaluate them in a right manner. So far, little help in predicting …
We derive generalization error bounds for traditional time-series forecasting models. Our results hold for many standard forecasting tools including autoregressive models, moving average models, and, more generally, linear state-space models. These non-asymptotic bounds need only weak assumptions on the data-generating…
FinMem enhances LLM trading agents with layered memory and character design.
problem Developing purpose-driven LLM agents for financial decision-making.
method Integrates layered memory and character design modules into an LLM framework.
result Significantly enhanced trading performance in financial markets.
Develops RL for dynamic risk assessment in stochastic optimization.
problem Time-consistent risk assessment in stochastic optimization problems.
method Model-free reinforcement learning with dynamic convex risk measures, time-consistent dynamic programming, policy gradient updates, actor-critic neural network optimization.
result Demonstrates optimal policies for statistical arbitrage, financial hedging, and robot control.
New method for calculating crosscap numbers of knots.
problem Calculating crosscap numbers of knots efficiently.
method Deformation of plumbing and computer aid.
result Efficient calculation of crosscap numbers.
A new DVAE architecture improves channel estimation by incorporating temporal correlations.
problem Improving the estimation of time-varying channels.
method Introducing k-MemoryMarkovVAE (k-MMVAE) architecture to learn temporal correlations.
result The k-MMVAE aided channel estimator outperforms other ML aided estimators.
Framework analyzes stock price co-movement with fundamentals using big data.
problem Understanding complex relationships between stock price co-movements and fundamental characteristics.
method Advanced big data techniques, four regression models.
result Identifies leading co-movement stocks and their influencing factors.
Illegal insider trading of stocks is based on releasing non-public information (e.g., new product launch, quarterly financial report, acquisition or merger plan) before the information is made public. Detecting illegal insider trading is difficult due to the complex, nonlinear, and non-stationary nature of the stock ma…
I-AID categorizes disaster tweets into useful information types.
problem Filtering useful information from social media during disasters.
method Multimodel approach using BERT, GAT, and Relation Network.
result I-AID outperforms state-of-the-art approaches in F1 scores.
Humans are spectacular reinforcement learners, constantly learning from and adjusting to experience and feedback. Unfortunately, this doesn't necessarily mean humans are fast learners. When tasks are challenging, learning can become unacceptably slow. Fortunately, humans do not have to learn tabula rasa, and learning s…
Quantum computing aids in optimizing currency reserves for central banks.
problem Optimizing currency composition in foreign exchange reserves.
method Comparison of quantum and classical algorithms for portfolio optimization.
result Quantum algorithms outperform classical methods in currency optimization.
Orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) has been widely applied in current communication systems. The artificial intelligence (AI)-aided OFDM receivers are currently brought to the forefront to replace and improve the traditional OFDM receivers. In this study, we first compare two AI-aided OFDM receivers, nam…
Inspired by the recent advances in deep learning (DL), this work presents a deep neural network aided decoding algorithm for binary linear codes. Based on the concept of deep unfolding, we design a decoding network by unfolding the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM)-penalized decoder. In addition, we pr…
We propose a new image denoising algorithm, dubbed as Fully Convolutional Adaptive Image DEnoiser (FC-AIDE), that can learn from an offline supervised training set with a fully convolutional neural network as well as adaptively fine-tune the supervised model for each given noisy image. We significantly extend the frame…
This thesis proposes a derivatives hedging framework using deep learning and reinforcement learning.
problem Traditional hedging models fail in complex, uncertain markets due to assumptions like continuous trading and zero transaction costs.
method Integrates deep learning and reinforcement learning, using a spatiotemporal attention-based Transformer for probabilistic forecasting and hedging.
result The proposed method significantly outperforms traditional approaches in U.S. and Chinese financial markets.
Gaussian Processes enhance financial forecasting by predicting mean-reverting time series with probability distributions.
problem Accurate long-term financial predictions with probability distributions.
method Functional and augmented data structures for Gaussian Processes.
result Gaussian Processes offer improved long-term predictions with probability distributions.
This study compares logistic regression and XGBoost for predicting credit risk.
problem Predicting credit risk in financial services.
method Advanced machine learning techniques (logistic regression and XGBoost) with data preprocessing.
result XGBoost outperforms logistic regression in predicting credit risk.
Develops an LLM-based agent for superior cryptocurrency trading.
problem Lack of LLMs in cryptocurrency trading due to its unique data types.
method Combines on-chain and off-chain data analysis with a reflective mechanism.
result Demonstrates superior performance in maximizing returns compared to traditional strategies.
Hearing Aid (HA) algorithms need to be tuned ("fitted") to match the impairment of each specific patient. The lack of a fundamental HA fitting theory is a strong contributing factor to an unsatisfying sound experience for about 20% of hearing aid patients. This paper proposes a probabilistic modeling approach to the de…
TinyLSTMs reduces speech enhancement model size and latency for hearing aids.
problem Large RNNs limit practical deployment in hearing aid hardware.
method Model compression techniques (pruning, integer quantization, state update skipping) for RNN speech enhancement.
result Reduction in model size and operations by 11.9imes and 2.9imes, respectively, without perceptual degradation. Armed conflict has led to an unprecedented number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) - individuals who are forced out of their homes but remain within their country. IDPs often urgently require shelter, food, and healthcare, yet prediction of when large fluxes of IDPs will cross into an area remains a major challen…