This paper develops nudging algorithms using learned surrogates for state estimation in dynamical systems.
problem Estimating the state of a dynamical system from partial observations when dynamics are unknown or expensive to simulate.
method Unified finite-dimensional analysis of nudging algorithms employing learned surrogate models of the dynamics.
result Nudging algorithms with surrogate models retain exponential convergence up to an explicit error floor.
Study shows targeting students with intermediate predicted outcomes is most effective for financial aid renewal.
problem Determining which students to target for financial aid renewal to maximize effectiveness.
method Used causal forest to estimate heterogeneous treatment effects and targeted students accordingly; compared targeting low vs high predicted probability outcomes.
result Targeting students with intermediate predicted outcomes yields the highest effectiveness in financial aid renewal.
Minimum energy paths for transitions such as atomic and/or spin rearrangements in thermalized systems are the transition paths of largest statistical weight. Such paths are frequently calculated using the nudged elastic band method, where an initial path is iteratively shifted to the nearest minimum energy path. The co…
SessionPath improves category suggestions in type-ahead search.
problem Improving precision and recall in eCommerce type-ahead suggestions.
method SessionPath uses session embeddings and a probability distribution model to predict facets.
result SessionPath outperforms count-based and neural models in eCommerce shops.
In many areas, practitioners seek to use observational data to learn a treatment assignment policy that satisfies application-specific constraints, such as budget, fairness, simplicity, or other functional form constraints. For example, policies may be restricted to take the form of decision trees based on a limited se…
k-Rater reliability corrects under-reporting of aggregated data reliability.
problem Under-reporting of data reliability in aggregated ratings.
method k-Rater reliability (kRR) as a multi-rater generalization of IRR.
result kRR provides a more accurate measure of reliability for aggregated datasets.
Unified approach to Merton's portfolio problem using Pontryagin's principles.
problem Optimizing consumption and investment strategies in financial portfolios.
method PG-DPO framework combining neural networks with Pontryagin's maximum principle.
result Locally optimal policies closely tied to classical stochastic control.
The calculation of minimum energy paths for transitions such as atomic and/or spin re-arrangements is an important task in many contexts and can often be used to determine the mechanism and rate of transitions. An important challenge is to reduce the computational effort in such calculations, especially when ab initio …
The study shows how probability weighting can lead to betting in a risk-averse economy.
problem Understanding how probability weighting affects economic behavior and risk aversion.
method Examining a von Neumann-Morgenstern economy with an RDU agent to model probability weighting effects.
result Probability weighting can lead to endogenous betting in an economy with common beliefs.
New method improves language model fine-tuning without forgetting.
problem Fine-tuning language models to match specific distributions without forgetting.
method Combines Distribution Matching and Reinforcement Learning techniques.
result Adding a baseline improves constraint satisfaction, stability, and efficiency.
Behavior modification improves prediction accuracy by nudging user behavior.
problem Improving prediction accuracy using behavior modification techniques.
method Combining prediction and behavior modification with reinforcement learning algorithms.
result Behavior modification can make predictions more certain but may not generalize.
We propose strategies to estimate and make inference on key features of heterogeneous effects in randomized experiments. These key features include best linear predictors of the effects using machine learning proxies, average effects sorted by impact groups, and average characteristics of most and least impacted units.…
SXL embeds spatial autocorrelation into neural networks for better geographic data learning.
problem Difficulties in learning spatial effects for neural networks in geographic data.
method SXL uses auxiliary tasks and autoregressive embeddings to learn spatial autocorrelation.
result SXL improves neural network training in unsupervised and supervised learning tasks.
EP learns like BPTT but with local weight updates.
problem Existing EP lacks a local time learning rule.
method C-EP updates weights simultaneously with neuron dynamics.
result C-EP follows BPTT gradients and performs well.
Sample-Rank simplifies MO recommendations by sampling and ranking, improving revenue with stable conversion rates.
problem Multi-objective recommendations in online food ordering systems.
method Multi-goal sampling followed by ranking, reducing MO problem to LTR model.
result Significant lift in revenue (2.64%) with stable conversion rates, no drop in last-mile traversal.
EP algorithm improved for CNNs and real-time learning.
problem EP's long simulation times and non-local learning rule limitations.
method Discrete-time formulation, continual weight updates, local time information.
result C-EP achieves best performance on MNIST with CNNs.