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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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3875113150 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for expert views

A new CoVaR framework integrates expert views using entropy pooling.

problem Risk assessment and spillover effects from diverse expert views.
method Entropy pooling method to integrate expert views and compute general CoVaR.
result General CoVaR shows linear relationships with expectations and differences in expectations, and nonlinear dependencies with variance, quantiles, and correlation.

The main objective is to present a some variant of the Black - Litterman model. We consider the canonical case when priori return is determined by means such excess return from the CAPM market portfolio which is derived using reverse optimization method. Then the a priori return is at risk quantified uncertainty. On th…

2016-01-03abs ↗pdf ↗

This study analyzes communication constraints in MoE architectures using information theory.

problem Communication constraints in Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architectures.
method Developed a rate-distortion characterization of finite-rate gating in MoE architectures using information theory.
result Yielded capacity-aware limits for communication-constrained MoE systems.

Dynamic Black-Litterman integrates expert views with portfolio optimization over varying time horizons.

problem Incorporating expert views with varying horizons in portfolio optimization.
method Exploiting graphical structure, deriving conditional distribution of asset returns, and using affine factor models.
result Explicit expression for optimal dynamic investment policy and hedging demand analysis.

This work addresses the classic machine learning problem of online prediction with expert advice. We consider the finite-horizon version of this zero-sum, two-person game. Using verification arguments from optimal control theory, we view the task of finding better lower and upper bounds on the value of the game (regret…

2019-11-05abs ↗pdf ↗

Framework uses expert intervention to solve long-horizon reinforcement learning tasks.

problem Long horizon robot learning tasks with sparse rewards.
method Option templates and expert intervention to enable high-level task understanding.
result Framework outperforms state-of-the-art approaches by two orders of magnitude.

We consider an adversarial online learning setting where a decision maker can choose an action in every stage of the game. In addition to observing the reward of the chosen action, the decision maker gets side observations on the reward he would have obtained had he chosen some of the other actions. The observation str…

2011-06-13abs ↗pdf ↗

Combines neural networks and expert rules for concept-based learning.

problem Extending concept-based learning with machine learning models.
method Form constraints for joint probability distribution and represent feasible set as a convex polytope.
result Neural networks can be trained to satisfy expert rules without violating them.

Scarcity of labeled data is one of the most frequent problems faced in machine learning. This is particularly true in relation extraction in text mining, where large corpora of texts exists in many application domains, while labeling of text data requires an expert to invest much time to read the documents. Overall, st…

2018-07-12abs ↗pdf ↗

The mixture of experts (MoE) model is a popular neural network architecture for nonlinear regression and classification. The class of MoE mean functions is known to be uniformly convergent to any unknown target function, assuming that the target function is from Sobolev space that is sufficiently differentiable and tha…

2016-02-11abs ↗pdf ↗

A new mechanism reduces expert belief regret in online forecasting.

problem Minimizing expert belief regret in strategic forecasting.
method Developed a no-regret mechanism for non-myopic experts using online I-ELF.
result Achieved ildeO(TN) ilde{O}(\sqrt{T N}) regret for full-information setting.

Imitation learning (IL) consists of a set of tools that leverage expert demonstrations to quickly learn policies. However, if the expert is suboptimal, IL can yield policies with inferior performance compared to reinforcement learning (RL). In this paper, we aim to provide an algorithm that combines the best aspects of…

2018-05-26abs ↗pdf ↗

New algorithm reduces regret in strategic prediction problem.

problem Designing an IC algorithm with sublinear regret for strategic experts.
method Developed a new algorithm WSU-UX and proved a worst-case regret bound.
result WSU-UX suffers a Ω(T2/3)Ω(T^{2/3}) lower bound on regret.

MuVI models multi-view data with structured sparsity, integrating domain knowledge.

problem Disentangling variation across multiple data views in complex systems.
method Multi-view latent variable model with structured sparsity using a modified horseshoe prior.
result MuVI outperforms state-of-the-art methods in structured sparsity modeling and integrates noisy domain expertise.

We present a self-contained proof of the Gauss-Bonnet theorem for two-dimensional surfaces embedded in R3R^3 using just classical vector calculus. The exposition should be accessible to advanced undergraduate and non-expert graduate students. It may be viewed as an illustration and exercise in multivariate calculus and…

2017-01-06abs ↗pdf ↗

Novel CNN-based gaze scanpath comparison distinguishes experts from novices in dental radiograph interpretation.

problem Distinguishing expertise in dental radiograph interpretation based on gaze behavior.
method Convolutional neural networks (CNN) process scene information at the fixation level, using image patches as input to compare gaze scanpaths.
result 93% accuracy in distinguishing experts from novices using image patch features.

Expert system predicts credit card charge-offs using macroeconomic indicators.

problem Managing charge-off rates in the credit card industry.
method Developed an expert system using machine learning and macroeconomic indicators.
result Achieved mean squared error values of 1.15E-03 and 1.04E-03.

This article is a survey article on geometric group theory from the point of view of a non-expert who likes geometric group theory and uses it in his own research. The sections are: classical examples, basics about quasiisometry,properties and invariants of groups invariant under quasiisometry, rigidity, hyperbolic spa…

2008-06-23abs ↗pdf ↗

Improves predictions by integrating forward-looking views into dynamic factor models.

problem Poor forecasts from historical data when dynamics change.
method Combines historical data with forward-looking views using a dynamic factor model.
result Derives optimal portfolio strategies influenced by both myopic and intertemporal factors.

New method prevents forgetting in learning new tasks.

problem Poor ability of models to solve new problems without forgetting.
method Task-agnostic hierarchical information-theoretic optimality principle with Mixture-of-Variational-Experts layer.
result Demonstrated competitive performance in continual supervised and reinforcement learning.

A database of objects discovered in houses in the Roman city of Pompeii provides a unique view of ordinary life in an ancient city. Experts have used this collection to study the structure of Roman households, exploring the distribution and variability of tasks in architectural spaces, but such approaches are necessari…

2012-02-14abs ↗pdf ↗

Statistical learning relies upon data sampled from a distribution, and we usually do not care what actually generated it in the first place. From the point of view of causal modeling, the structure of each distribution is induced by physical mechanisms that give rise to dependences between observables. Mechanisms, howe…

2017-12-04abs ↗pdf ↗

Bidirectional attention is shown to be equivalent to a continuous bag of words model with mixture-of-experts.

problem Understanding the statistical underpinnings of bidirectional attention.
method Exploring bidirectional attention as a mixture-of-experts model and reparameterizing it.
result Bidirectional attention can be viewed as a continuous bag of words model with mixture-of-experts weights.

Reinforcement learning offers the promise of automating the acquisition of complex behavioral skills. However, compared to commonly used and well-understood supervised learning methods, reinforcement learning algorithms can be brittle, difficult to use and tune, and sensitive to seemingly innocuous implementation decis…

2019-12-31abs ↗pdf ↗

Unified framework for imitation learning via moment matching.

problem Closing the gap between imitation and real-world performance.
method Classifying imitation learning algorithms based on reward or action-value moment matching, considering adversarial divergences.
result Derivation of bounds on policy performance for all algorithms in each class, and introduction of moment recoverability.

Decision support tools that rely on supervised learning require large amounts of expert annotations. Using past radiological reports obtained from hospital archiving systems has many advantages as training data above manual single-class labels: they are expert annotations available in large quantities, covering a popul…

2019-10-07abs ↗pdf ↗

A popular method for selecting the number of clusters is based on stability arguments: one chooses the number of clusters such that the corresponding clustering results are "most stable". In recent years, a series of papers has analyzed the behavior of this method from a theoretical point of view. However, the results …

2010-07-07abs ↗pdf ↗

Multi-expert L2D underfits more severely, requiring new methods.

problem Underfitting in multi-expert L2D settings.
method PiCCE (Pick the Confident and Correct Expert), a surrogate-based method.
result PiCCE effectively reduces multi-expert L2D to a single-expert-like problem, resolving underfitting.

TENP prunes experts and neurons in Mixture-of-Experts models for efficient deployment.

problem Efficient deployment of large language models constrained by static parameter footprint.
method Structured Trapezoidal ExpertNeuron Pruning (TENP) identifies and retains important experts and neurons.
result DeepSeek model achieves 10% better performance on code generation tasks with 40% expert sparsity.

A method to select important experts for Gaussian processes to balance computational efficiency and uncertainty quantification.

problem Balancing computational efficiency and uncertainty quantification in Gaussian processes for big data.
method Using graphical models to select important experts and aggregate their predictions while ensuring uncertainty quantification.
result Substantially reduces computational cost of aggregating dependent experts while ensuring calibrated uncertainty quantification.

We consider the problem of contextual bandits with stochastic experts, which is a variation of the traditional stochastic contextual bandit with experts problem. In our problem setting, we assume access to a class of stochastic experts, where each expert is a conditional distribution over the arms given a context. We p…

2018-02-23abs ↗pdf ↗

Improved time series forecasting with expert loss integration.

problem Enhancing time series forecasting accuracy and efficiency.
method Adaptive Mixture-of-Experts framework with expert-specific loss integration and online learning.
result Significantly improved forecasting accuracy and computational efficiency.