A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
The paper analyzes the expected size of conformal prediction sets.
Recently it has been shown that the step sizes of a family of variance reduced gradient methods called the JacSketch methods depend on the expected smoothness constant. In particular, if this expected smoothness constant could be calculated a priori, then one could safely set much larger step sizes which would result i…
A new method approximates expected empirical loss for stochastic deep learning tasks.
The contour map of estimation error of Expected Shortfall (ES) is constructed. It allows one to quantitatively determine the sample size (the length of the time series) required by the optimization under ES of large institutional portfolios for a given size of the portfolio, at a given confidence level and a given esti…
Study on typical knots and links using grid diagrams, focusing on size, components, and writhe.
We propose a fast algorithm for computing the expected tranche loss in the Gaussian factor model. We test it on portfolios ranging in size from 25 (the size of DJ iTraxx Australia) to 100 (the size of DJCDX.NA.HY) with a single factor Gaussian model and show that the algorithm gives accurate results. The algorithm prop…
Deep model tackles claim size modeling with quantile-based regression.
Directed acyclic graph (DAG) models are popular for capturing causal relationships. From observational and interventional data, a DAG model can only be determined up to its \emph{interventional Markov equivalence class} (I-MEC). We investigate the size of MECs for random DAG models generated by uniformly sampling and o…
FIEM accelerates EM for large datasets with nonasymptotic convergence bounds.
Paper proposes a cost-sensitive conformal training method with provably controllable learning bounds.
Expectile bears some interesting properties in comparison to the industry wide expected shortfall in terms of assessment of tail risk. We study the relationship between expectile and expected shortfall using duality results and the link to optimized certainty equivalent. Lower and upper bounds of expectile are derived …
Worst-Case Sensitivity measures model sensitivity to uncertainty set size.
We propose a new stochastic first-order algorithmic framework to solve stochastic composite nonconvex optimization problems that covers both finite-sum and expectation settings. Our algorithms rely on the SARAH estimator introduced in (Nguyen et al, 2017) and consist of two steps: a proximal gradient and an averaging s…
Deep learning improves image reconstruction, but scaling up training sets doesn't significantly boost performance.
FOCuS detects changes in mean from high-frequency data efficiently.
SGD converges to global minimum for structured non-convex functions.
In this paper, we propose a novel approach to automatically determine the batch size in stochastic gradient descent methods. The choice of the batch size induces a trade-off between the accuracy of the gradient estimate and the cost in terms of samples of each update. We propose to determine the batch size by optimizin…
We analyze the size of the dictionary constructed from online kernel sparsification, using a novel formula that expresses the expected determinant of the kernel Gram matrix in terms of the eigenvalues of the covariance operator. Using this formula, we are able to connect the cardinality of the dictionary with the eigen…
A microscopic model of aggregation and fragmentation is introduced to investigate the size distribution of businesses. In the model, businesses are constrained to comply with the market price, as expected by the customers, while customers can only buy at the prices offered by the businesses. We show numerically and ana…
We provide non-asymptotic bounds for the well-known temporal difference learning algorithm TD(0) with linear function approximators. These include high-probability bounds as well as bounds in expectation. Our analysis suggests that a step-size inversely proportional to the number of iterations cannot guarantee optimal …
AutoStep MCMC adapts step size locally for better sampling efficiency.
We propose a fast algorithm for computing the expected tranche loss in the Gaussian factor model. We test it on a 125 name portfolio with a single factor Gaussian model and show that the algorithm gives accurate results. We choose a 125 name portfolio for our tests because this is the size of the standard DJCDX.NA.HY p…
We present a novel Metropolis-Hastings method for large datasets that uses small expected-size minibatches of data. Previous work on reducing the cost of Metropolis-Hastings tests yield variable data consumed per sample, with only constant factor reductions versus using the full dataset for each sample. Here we present…
Paper introduces new bounds linking data compressibility to generalization error.
Improved analysis of extragradient methods for structured VIPs.
Regularized EM algorithm improves clustering performance with small sample sizes.
New convergence results for NGVI with various step sizes and sample sizes.
The paper improves regret bounds for admission control in queueing systems.
The tail of the distribution of a sum of a random number of independent and identically distributed nonnegative random variables depends on the tails of the number of terms and of the terms themselves. This situation is of interest in the collective risk model, where the total claim size in a portfolio is the sum of a …
We present a noise-injected version of the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm: the Noisy Expectation Maximization (NEM) algorithm. The NEM algorithm uses noise to speed up the convergence of the EM algorithm. The NEM theorem shows that injected noise speeds up the average convergence of the EM algorithm to a local…
Proposes a new tail risk measure based on the most probable maximum risk event size.
MAS scores cluster size consistency from points, robust to label changes.
Two methods estimate effect size for online experiments, improving accuracy and efficiency.
A major line of contemporary research on complex networks is based on the development of statistical models that specify the local motifs associated with macro-structural properties observed in actual networks. This statistical approach becomes increasingly problematic as network size increases. In the context of curre…
The Normalized Mutual Information (NMI) has been widely used to evaluate the accuracy of community detection algorithms. However in this article we show that the NMI is seriously affected by systematic errors due to finite size of networks, and may give a wrong estimate of performance of algorithms in some cases. We gi…
New theory shows how learning algorithms can create a bias towards negative outcomes.
A new method improves active learning for large batch sizes.
Estimates statistical power for cluster analysis in biomedical research.
We present a plausible micro-founded model for the previously postulated power law finite time singular form of the crash hazard rate in the Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette model of rational expectation bubbles. The model is based on a percolation picture of the network of traders and the concept that clusters of connected tr…
Information-Geometric Optimization (IGO) is a unified framework of stochastic algorithms for optimization problems. Given a family of probability distributions, IGO turns the original optimization problem into a new maximization problem on the parameter space of the probability distributions. IGO updates the parameter …
Under the Fundamental Review of the Trading Book (FRTB) capital charges for the trading book are based on the coherent expected shortfall (ES) risk measure, which show greater sensitivity to tail risk. In this paper it is argued that backtesting of expected shortfall - or the trading book model from which it is calcula…
We propose a novel, theoretically-grounded, acquisition function for Batch Bayesian optimization informed by insights from distributionally ambiguous optimization. Our acquisition function is a lower bound on the well-known Expected Improvement function, which requires evaluation of a Gaussian Expectation over a multiv…
This paper studies the Glosten Milgrom model whose risky asset value admits an arbitrary discrete distribution. Contrast to existing results on insider's models, the insider's optimal strategy in this model, if exists, is not of feedback type. Therefore a weak formulation of equilibrium is proposed. In this weak formul…
Expectation maximization (EM) has recently been shown to be an efficient algorithm for learning finite-state controllers (FSCs) in large decentralized POMDPs (Dec-POMDPs). However, current methods use fixed-size FSCs and often converge to maxima that are far from optimal. This paper considers a variable-size FSC to rep…
We consider a modification of the dividend maximization problem from ruin theory. Based on a classical risk process we maximize the difference of expected cumulated discounted dividends and total expected discounted additional funding (subject to some proportional transaction costs). For modelling dividends we use the …
The contour maps of the error of historical resp. parametric estimates for large random portfolios optimized under the risk measure Expected Shortfall (ES) are constructed. Similar maps for the sensitivity of the portfolio weights to small changes in the returns as well as the VaR of the ES-optimized portfolio are also…
A method for large scale Gaussian process classification has been recently proposed based on expectation propagation (EP). Such a method allows Gaussian process classifiers to be trained on very large datasets that were out of the reach of previous deployments of EP and has been shown to be competitive with related tec…
A new EM algorithm improves inference from large datasets.