Paper predicts tick value changes' impact on market microstructure.
problem Assessing the effects of changing tick values in stock exchanges.
method Applied methodology from Dayri and Rosenbaum (2015) to forecast costs and optimal tick values.
result Accurate predictions of future market and limit order costs after tick value changes.
The paper identifies regions where investment strategies match expected performance.
problem Inconsistent performance of Markowitz efficient portfolios.
method Density forecasting to measure ex-ante accuracy and identify the consistency region.
result Investment strategies based on consistent portfolios outperform efficient ones.
The paper examines how realized and implied volatilities predict future commodity quantiles.
problem Estimating and predicting the Value-at-Risk (VaR) of commodities.
method Panel quantile regression framework.
result Future quantile returns of commodities depend on both ex-post and ex-ante volatilities.
New method separates model and non-model risks for more practical asset pricing.
problem Asset pricing under model-uncertainty.
method Binary model-risks and constraints over preferences; unique model-risk pricing formula.
result Unique model-risk pricing formula with dynamically conserved constant.
Framework selects real estate redevelopment uses by integrating value, risk, complexity, and irreversibility.
problem Persistent underperformance of real estate assets due to structural misalignment.
method Integrates real-options logic and multi-criteria decision analysis.
result Reduces over-complexification and misalignment in strategic use selection.
New risk-sharing rules induced by capital allocation principles.
problem Risk sharing in corporate structures.
method Randomizing existing capital allocation principles.
result Derives new risk-sharing rules complementing existing literature.
AGFN improves causal discovery by integrating expert feedback and handling latent confounding.
problem Inaccurate causal discovery due to unreliable expert knowledge and latent confounding.
method Ancestral GFlowNet (AGFN) is a reinforcement learning algorithm that iteratively refines a policy based on noisy expert feedback to infer ancestral graphs.
result AGFN converges to the true ancestral graph given accurate expert responses and outperforms baselines in structural Hamming distance and Bayesian Information Criterion.
Proposes a method to infer the distributional impacts of predictive models on stakeholders.
problem The influence of predictive models on target variable distribution, leading to performative prediction.
method Modeling agents' responses as a cost-adjusted utility maximization problem and using optimal transport to align pre- and post-model distributions.
result Provides estimates for the cost associated with these responses and demonstrates the quality of these estimates.
Hybrid model assesses flash crash contagion and systemic risk.
problem Understanding conditions for flash crash contagion and systemic risk.
method Micro-macro agent-based model with endogenous price impact.
result Systemic risk depends on algorithmic trader behavior, leverage, and network topology.
The paper predicts and explains the decay of stock anomaly performance over time.
problem Predicting and explaining the drop in risk-adjusted performance of stock anomalies.
method The authors propose ex-ante characteristics based on hypotheses of out-of-sample decay and in-sample overfitting.
result The year of publication explains 30% of the variance in Sharpe decay across factors.
The paper analyzes the stochastic frontiers of technological innovation using fractal dimensions.
problem Determining the levels of causality in technological innovation using fractal dimensions.
method The study uses high-frequency data to analyze the stochastic frontiers of production possibilities with level N of partitions in time.
result The main finding is the accuracy and power of indexing the levels of causality in technological innovation.
Investors improve performance by integrating knowledge components into investment decisions.
problem Investors underestimate the influence of knowledge components in portfolio investments.
method A 3-stage process integrating knowledge components related to data, models, or business units.
result Improves the importance of knowledge in investment decisions.
The paper examines how banks charge a KVA to clients under stricter capital requirements.
problem Impact of stricter capital requirements on OTC transaction valuations.
method Optimization using indifference pricing approach, considering both bank and shareholder perspectives.
result The study finds that charging a KVA can affect the profit and loss distribution of transactions.
Paper proposes a fair grading method for randomized exams.
problem Ensuring fairness in grading for randomized exams.
method Maximum-likelihood estimator for Bradley-Terry-Luce model on student-question graph.
result Maximum-likelihood estimator is consistent and outperforms simple averaging in fairness and accuracy.
Italy and the Eurozone are heading in the year 2012 into a financial depression of unprecedented magnitude, with a forthcoming multitude of often contradictory public economic and financial stability emergency interventions whose ultimate endogenous and exogenous effects on public and private health spending and on the…
The paper examines how risk reduction and insurance choices interact under convex premium principles.
problem Interaction between self-protection and insurance demand under convex premium principles.
method Investigates optimal prevention efforts and insurance shares using distortion risk measures.
result Self-protection and insurance are complementary, but ex ante moral hazard can turn this into a substitution effect.
This paper revisits the fractional cointegrating relationship between ex-ante implied volatility and ex-post realized volatility. We argue that the concept of corridor implied volatility (CIV) should be used instead of the popular model-free option-implied volatility (MFIV) when assessing the fractional cointegrating r…
The paper analyzes fairness of compensation-based risk-sharing schemes for fund payouts.
problem Fair allocation of payouts in an endowment contingency fund.
method Analyzes two types of administrators and general non-negative loss distributions.
result General conditions for actuarial fairness are provided.
This paper investigates the equilibrium interactions between trading targets and private information in a multi-period Kyle (1985) market. There are two investors who each follow dynamic trading strategies: A strategic portfolio rebalancer who engages in order splitting to reach a cumulative trading target and an uncon…
Climate volatility reduces economic growth, especially in poorer countries.
problem Impact of climate volatility on economic growth.
method Exploiting data on 133 countries over 59 years, controlling for temperature changes.
result A 1 degree C increase in temperature volatility leads to a 0.3% decline in GDP growth.
A new test evaluates risk estimation accuracy using probability integral transform.
problem Measuring the accuracy of financial market risk estimations.
method Probability Integral Transform (PIT) of ex post realized returns against ex ante probability distributions.
result The new test shows the importance of capturing the dynamic of financial markets.
Machine learning predicts US will win most Olympic medals in 2020.
problem Improve Olympic medal forecasting accuracy.
method Two-stage Random Forest machine learning model.
result Model outperforms traditional forecasts for three previous Olympics.
Fair insurance contracts are designed to handle default risk using cooperative game theory.
problem Designing fair insurance contracts in the presence of default risk.
method Cooperative game theory to specify premiums and participation in benefit.
result Fair benefit participation emerges as a game outcome involving residual risks.
Study minimizes market inefficiency in systemic economies.
problem Minimizing deviations of market prices from fundamental values.
method Characterized market inefficiency and developed a matrix of holdings to minimize it.
result Portfolio holdings should deviate more from diversification if banks have similar systemic significance.
Improved estimation of hedge fund tail risks using a novel model.
problem Estimation inefficiencies and need for manual threshold selection in extreme value regression models.
method Extended tail regression model with automatic threshold selection and artificial censoring.
result Significant link between tail risks and factors like equity momentum and financial stability index.
The study uses a multi-armed bandit model to analyze and mitigate hiring discrimination.
problem Hiring discrimination due to insufficient data on worker skill and characteristics.
method Multi-armed bandit model to simulate firms' learning process and policy solutions.
result Temporary affirmative actions effectively alleviate discrimination caused by data insufficiency.
The study optimizes portfolios under transaction costs and model uncertainty, showing the effectiveness of turnover penalization.
problem Optimizing portfolios under transaction costs and model uncertainty.
method Theoretical and empirical analysis linking turnover penalization to covariance shrinkage, incorporating transaction costs and parameter uncertainty.
result Turnover penalization is more effective than shrinkage methods in constructing well-performing portfolios.
Neyman's framework evaluates personalized treatment rules using experiments.
problem Evaluating the efficacy of individualized treatment rules derived by machine learning.
method Neyman's repeated sampling framework applied to cross-fitted ITRs.
result Ex-post evaluation of ITRs can be more efficient than random assignment.
Study shows SEC crypto classification led to significant market reactions.
problem Impact of SEC classification of crypto assets as securities.
method Event study methodology focusing on explicitly named crypto assets.
result Significant adverse market reactions, with returns plummeting 12% over one week.
EX-DRL improves extreme quantile prediction for financial risk management.
problem Inaccurate estimation of extreme quantiles in loss distributions.
method EX-DRL uses Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) to model the tail of the loss distribution and Quantile Regression (QR) to improve extreme quantile prediction.
result EX-DRL provides more precise estimates of extreme quantiles, improving risk metrics reliability.
Algorithms optimize fair portfolios for diverse risk-tolerant consumers.
problem Designing fair portfolios for consumers with varying risk tolerances.
method Two-player zero-sum game-based algorithms for optimal and near-optimal portfolio design.
result Efficient algorithms for fair portfolio design with and without group structure assumptions.
High-speed clustering detects financial market states from intraday data.
problem Detecting and understanding intraday financial market states.
method High-speed maximum likelihood clustering algorithm applied to correlation matrices of intraday market microstructure features.
result State signature vectors enable real-time state detection and provide low-dimensional descriptors.
The article first describes characteristics of major infrastructure projects. Second, it documents a much neglected topic in economics: that ex ante estimates of costs and benefits are often very different from actual ex post costs and benefits. For large infrastructure projects the consequence is cost overruns, benefi…
Lotteries improve resource allocation for players with complex preferences.
problem Improving resource allocation for players with cumulative-prospect-theoretic preferences.
method Formulate an optimization problem to find optimal lottery allocations, prove existence of equilibrium prices, and derive qualitative features of optimal lottery structures.
result Lotteries can increase aggregate utility over deterministic allocations for players with cumulative-prospect-theoretic preferences.
Random time forward starting options allow flexibility in strike determination.
problem Flexibility in determining strike price for forward-starting options.
method Introduce and analyze Random Time Forward Starting (RTFS) options under martingale preserving hypothesis.
result Explicit arbitrage-free prices can be computed in various market models.
We describe an exercise of using Big Data to predict the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, a widely used indicator of the state of confidence in the US economy. We carry out the exercise from a pure ex ante perspective. We use the methodology of algorithmic text analysis of an archive of brokers' reports over the peri…
Boundary-induced apparent risk aversion in non-ergodic growth models.
problem Risk aversion in multiplicative growth systems with absorbing boundaries.
method Exact lattice propagation and analysis of binary multiplicative processes.
result Optimal exposure is compressed near absorbing boundaries, mimicking risk aversion.
Systemic risk refers to the risk that the financial system is susceptible to failures due to the characteristics of the system itself. The tremendous cost of systemic risk requires the design and implementation of tools for the efficient macroprudential regulation of financial institutions. The current paper proposes a…
Study of ants' movement rules on a 6D space, revealing distribution structures and singular trajectories.
problem Understanding the movement patterns of ants in a 6D space.
method Analyzing mechanical system rules to derive distribution structures and singular trajectories.
result Distributions and singular trajectories of ants' movement rules in a 6D space.
Study on optimal information acquisition in Kyle model with entropy cost.
problem Optimal information acquisition in Kyle model with entropy cost.
method Continuous signals are optimal, and any signal with a logit posterior distribution yields the same ex-ante value.
result Posterior expected payoff becomes normally distributed as information acquisition cost increases.
New tests for conditional copulas based on decision trees.
problem Testing constancy of conditional dependence structure given conditioning events.
method Data-driven decision trees to maximize differences in conditional Kendall's tau.
result Asymptotic distributions of test statistics under the null hypothesis.
The paper tackles fair representation learning by smoothing feature mappings.
problem Legal liability for discriminatory use of data by organizations.
method Mapping features to a fair representation space, certifying fairness through chi-squared mutual information.
result Smoothing representation distribution provides generalization guarantees of fairness and maintains accuracy for downstream tasks.
AMMs enforce target-weighted portfolios, outperforming traditional funds in returns and tracking error.
problem Enforcing target-weighted portfolios in decentralized exchanges.
method Introducing a multi-asset fee structure to enforce a geometric mean market maker invariant, allowing compliance with the mandate to be verified directly from pool holdings.
result G3M portfolios outperform traditional funds in annualized returns and tracking error for certain fee ranges.
The model of rational decision-making in most of economics and statistics is expected utility theory (EU) axiomatised by von Neumann and Morgenstern, Savage and others. This is less the case, however, in financial economics and mathematical finance, where investment decisions are commonly based on the methods of mean-v…
Ex ante forecast outcomes should be interpreted as counterfactuals (potential histories), with errors as the spread between outcomes. Reapplying measurements of uncertainty about the estimation errors of the estimation errors of an estimation leads to branching counterfactuals. Such recursions of epistemic uncertainty …
Model shows how Ethereum can capture MEV from block construction, but centralization remains a concern.
problem Ethereum's ability to capture MEV from block construction.
method Economic model of Execution Tickets to study MEV extraction.
result MEV capture decreases with risk aversion and capital costs, and can be low with heterogeneous buyers.
Proving the existence of speculative financial bubbles even a posteriori has proven exceedingly difficult so anticipating a speculative bubble ex ante would at first seem an impossible task. Still as illustrated by the recent turmoil in financial markets initiated by the so called subprime crisis there is clearly an ur…
Ant colonies and boosting algorithms both reduce bias and variance through adaptive mechanisms.
problem Understanding the mathematical principles behind ensemble learning and ant colony behavior.
method Developed a formal mapping between AdaBoost's adaptive reweighting and ant recruitment dynamics.
result Proved that the fundamental theorem of weak learnability has a direct analog in colony decision-making.