Rainfall ensemble forecasts have to be skillful for both low precipitation and extreme events. We present statistical post-processing methods based on Quantile Regression Forests (QRF) and Gradient Forests (GF) with a parametric extension for heavy-tailed distributions. Our goal is to improve ensemble quality for all t…
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48 results for “ensemble model output statistics”
This study compares multivariate vs univariate machine learning for multi-output regression.
problem When to use multivariate ensemble techniques over separate univariate models.
method Comparative analysis of different multivariate approaches for multi-output regression.
result Multivariate ensemble techniques outperform separate univariate models in simulations.
This paper generalizes an important result from the PAC-Bayesian literature for binary classification to the case of ensemble methods for structured outputs. We prove a generic version of the \Cbound, an upper bound over the risk of models expressed as a weighted majority vote that is based on the first and second stat…
A hybrid strategy forecasts short-term loads using Warm-start Gradient Tree Boosting.
problem Lack of effective short-term load forecasting methods.
method Hybrid strategy integrating four different inference models: tree-based ensemble method Warm-start Gradient Tree Boosting (WGTB).
result Demonstrates effectiveness of hybrid strategy on real datasets.
Study compares machine learning methods for improving wind gust forecasts.
problem Improving accuracy of wind gust forecasts from ensemble models.
method Comprehensive comparison of 8 statistical and machine learning methods.
result Locally adaptive neural networks significantly outperform other methods.
New method combines model forecasts and real-time observations for hourly wind speed predictions.
problem Filling the six-hour gap between weather model runs for accurate hourly wind speed forecasts.
method Combines quasi-real-time observed wind speed and weather model predictions using a novel Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS) strategy.
result Successfully improved wind speed predictions compared to observed data from SYNOP stations.
This research improves model interpretability and uncertainty estimation for deep learning models on non-iid data.
problem Improving interpretability and uncertainty estimation for deep learning models on non-iid data.
method 4 UQ approaches (BNN, SWAG, MC dropout, ensemble) applied to ARMED MEDL models.
result Ensemble approaches, especially with 90% subsampling, provide best performance in prediction and uncertainty estimation.
New neural scaling law found for simple quadratic function.
problem Neural scaling laws and their predictions for model performance.
method Analysis of neural networks, lottery ticket ensembling, statistical interpretation.
result Found a new scaling law () for a simple quadratic function, contradicting previous theories.
The paper explores dynamic ensembles for multi-step forecasting.
problem Lack of research on dynamic ensembles for multi-step forecasting.
method Extensive experiments with 3568 time series and an ensemble of 30 multi-output models.
result Dynamic ensembles based on arbitrating and windowing perform best.
Study compares DL models for medical image segmentation, finds synergistic ensemble strategies improve performance.
problem Improving DL models for specialized medical image segmentation using transfer learning.
method Detailed comparisons of TII and LMI models for binary segmentation of medical images.
result Ensemble strategies improve performance by 10% in certain scenarios.
Researchers improve deep ensemble forecast aggregation methods.
problem Aggregating forecast distributions from deep ensembles for better predictive performance.
method Comprehensive analysis of twelve benchmark data sets, comparing probability- and quantile-based aggregation methods for three neural network-based approaches.
result A general quantile aggregation framework for deep ensembles improves predictive performance in various settings.
This paper presents first steps toward robust models for crisis prediction. We conduct a horse race of conventional statistical methods and more recent machine learning methods as early-warning models. As individual models are in the literature most often built in isolation of other methods, the exercise is of high rel…
Deep neural network (DNN) has demonstrated its success in multiple domains. However, DNN models are inherently vulnerable to adversarial examples, which are generated by adding adversarial perturbations to benign inputs to fool the DNN model to misclassify. In this paper, we present a cross-layer strategic ensemble fra…
Specialists outperform generalists in ensemble classification.
problem Determining the accuracy of an ensemble of classifiers when individual classifier accuracies are known.
method Proved upper and lower bounds on ensemble accuracy, constructed specialist and generalist classifiers.
result Upper and lower bounds on ensemble accuracy, practical implications for classifier construction.
New method reveals how training data influence diffusion model outputs.
problem Difficulty in assessing training data impact on diffusion model outputs.
method Use of ensembles trained on carefully engineered splits of training data to identify influential training examples.
result Demonstrated the viability of ensembles as generative models and validity of assessing influence.
This paper improves deep learning model consistency through ensemble methods.
problem Consistency and correct-consistency issues in deep learning models.
method Formal definition of consistency and correct-consistency, proving ensemble improvement, proposing dynamic snapshot ensemble method.
result Ensemble methods can improve correct-consistency of deep learning models.
Study on ensemble, distillation, and self-distillation in deep learning models.
problem Improving test accuracy in deep learning models using ensemble and distillation methods.
method Formal study of ensemble and distillation, considering multi-view data structure.
result Proven that ensemble and distillation can improve test accuracy in deep learning models, and the superior performance can be distilled into a single model.
Ensemble learning is a methodology that integrates multiple DNN learners for improving prediction performance of individual learners. Diversity is greater when the errors of the ensemble prediction is more uniformly distributed. Greater diversity is highly correlated with the increase in ensemble accuracy. Another attr…
Proposes a deep tree-ensemble model for multi-output prediction.
problem Lack of efficient solutions for multi-output prediction.
method Integrates tree-embeddings into deep tree-ensembles for structured output prediction.
result Superior performance in multi-label classification and multi-target regression tasks.
An Ensemble Anomaly Detection Framework for Risk Calculation Integrity
problem Detecting errors in risk valuation outputs
method Ensemble Quality Assessment Framework (EQAF)
result Achieves F1 scores of 61-79% across four datasets
A novel ensemble classifier improves vibration-based quality monitoring accuracy.
problem Developing high accuracy classification methods for general datasets.
method Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence with three remedies for conflicting evidences.
result The proposed ensemble classifier outperforms state-of-the-art fusion techniques.
Ensembles of classifier models typically deliver superior performance and can outperform single classifier models given a dataset and classification task at hand. However, the gain in performance comes together with the lack in comprehensibility, posing a challenge to understand how each model affects the classificatio…
HECT tests climate model outputs for reproducibility.
problem Ensuring climate models accurately reflect physical processes.
method Probabilistic classifiers for high-dimensional spatio-temporal data.
result A principled way to assess statistical reproducibility of climate models.
Improved wind speed forecasts for power generation using machine learning.
problem Improving the accuracy and reliability of wind speed predictions for power generation.
method A novel machine learning approach for calibrating wind speed ensemble forecasts.
result The proposed method improves the calibration and accuracy of probabilistic and point forecasts.
Efficient neural network ensembles improve image classification reliability and uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty in neural network predictions for industrial image classification.
method Investigated efficient neural network ensembles (snapshot, batch, multi-input multi-output) for image classification reliability and uncertainty quantification.
result Batch ensemble is a cost-effective and competitive alternative to deep ensembles, offering savings in training and test time.
DVERGE diversifies adversarial vulnerabilities to enhance robust ensemble models.
problem Diverse adversarial vulnerabilities for robust ensemble models.
method Isolates and diversifies adversarial vulnerabilities through distillation and training.
result Achieves higher robustness against transfer attacks compared to previous methods.
Ensembling multiple predictions is a widely used technique for improving the accuracy of various machine learning tasks. One obvious drawback of ensembling is its higher execution cost during inference. In this paper, we first describe our insights on the relationship between the probability of prediction and the effec…
Study forecasts monthly electricity demand using pattern similarity-based methods.
problem Forecasting monthly electricity demand accurately.
method Pattern similarity-based forecasting methods (PSFMs) including k-NN, fuzzy, kernel regression, and GRNN.
result Ensemble models outperform individual PSFMs in forecasting accuracy.
Dropout and similar stochastic neural network regularization methods are often interpreted as implicitly averaging over a large ensemble of models. We propose STE (stochastically trained ensemble) layers, which enhance the averaging properties of such methods by training an ensemble of weight matrices with stochastic r…
Machine learning improves cloud cover forecasting.
problem Improving accuracy of total cloud cover predictions.
method Investigated multilayer perceptron, gradient boosting machines, random forest, logistic regression models.
result RF models provide the smallest increase in predictive performance, while MLP, POLR, and GBM approaches perform best.
Logifold improves ensemble machine learning by identifying fuzzy domains.
problem Improving ensemble machine learning accuracy.
method Formulating logifold structure and interpreting local charts of datasets.
result Logifold improves accuracy compared to averaging model outputs.
In this paper, we propose to provide a general ensemble learning framework based on deep learning models. Given a group of unit models, the proposed deep ensemble learning framework will effectively combine their learning results via a multilayered ensemble model. In the case when the unit model mathematical mappings a…
Topology guidance controls generative model outputs by specifying topological features.
problem Lack of control in generative models for visual analysis.
method Coupling a coordinate-based neural network with a diffusion model to guide sampling.
result Generated fields adhere to specified topological features while staying within the generative distribution.
Variety and Volatility in Financial Marketscond-mat.stat-mech
We study the price dynamics of stocks traded in a financial market by considering the statistical properties both of a single time series and of an ensemble of stocks traded simultaneously. We use the stocks traded in the New York Stock Exchange to form a statistical ensemble of daily stock returns. For each tradin…
Q-Ensembles are a model-free approach where input images are fed into different Q-networks and exploration is driven by the assumption that uncertainty is proportional to the variance of the output Q-values obtained. They have been shown to perform relatively well compared to other exploration strategies. Further, mode…
The study improves solar irradiance forecasts for Chile using machine learning.
problem Accurate short-term PV power forecasts for Chile's Atacama Desert.
method 8-member ensemble forecasts of solar irradiance using WRF model, calibrated with EMOS and DRN.
result Machine learning-based post-processing methods improve forecast accuracy and calibration.
Fast estimates of model uncertainty are required for many robust robotics applications. Deep Ensembles provides state of the art uncertainty without requiring Bayesian methods, but still it is computationally expensive. In this paper we propose deep sub-ensembles, an approximation to deep ensembles where the core idea …
Compact Gaussian model approximates deep ensemble predictions.
problem Efficiently approximating deep ensemble models for image prediction.
method Sparse-structured multivariate Gaussian with Cholesky parameterization trained to match pre-trained ensemble outputs.
result Compact representation captures uncertainty and structured correlations explicitly.
Researchers develop tests to assess quality of GAN-generated images.
problem Lack of objective means to evaluate domain-relevant quality of GAN-generated images.
method Designed stochastic context models (SCMs) and statistical classifiers to detect high-order spatial arrangements in GAN-generated images.
result GANs can generate images that appear accurate visually but lack specific high-order spatial arrangements.
Prediction of disease onset from patient survey and lifestyle data is quickly becoming an important tool for diagnosing a disease before it progresses. In this study, data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) questionnaire is used to predict the onset of type II diabetes. An ensemble model…
In computer experiments, a mathematical model implemented on a computer is used to represent complex physical phenomena. These models, known as computer simulators, enable experimental study of a virtual representation of the complex phenomena. Simulators can be thought of as complex functions that take many inputs and…
We develop ensemble Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) to classify the transportation mode of trip data collected as part of a large-scale smartphone travel survey in Montreal, Canada. Our proposed ensemble library is composed of a series of CNN models with different hyper-parameter values and CNN architectures. In o…
Single model predicts multiple subnetworks for robustness.
problem Efficiently ensemble neural networks for robustness and uncertainty.
method Multi-input multi-output (MIMO) configuration to train independent subnetworks.
result Significant improvement in negative log-likelihood, accuracy, and calibration error.
The Ensemble Kalman Inversion Racephysics.data-an
Ensemble Kalman methods improve climate model calibration from noisy observations.
problem Calibrating parameters in complex climate models from noisy data.
method Comparing ensemble Kalman methods for efficiency in climate model calibration.
result Ensemble Kalman methods are more efficient and robust for parameter learning in climate models.
Paper proposes ensemble distillation for well-calibrated structured prediction.
problem Well-calibrated predictions are hard to achieve in structured prediction.
method Ensemble distillation framework for structured prediction.
result Ensemble distillation produces well-calibrated models with similar performance and calibration benefits to ensembles.
Mean-Field Approximation to Gaussian-Softmax Integral with Application to Uncertainty Estimationcs.LG
A new method for uncertainty estimation in neural networks using Gaussian-softmax integration.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in neural network predictions.
method Proposes a single-model approach integrating Gaussian distribution with softmax outputs, using mean-field approximation.
result Competitive performance on uncertainty estimation tasks and outperforms many methods on out-of-distribution detection.
Generative adversarial networks generate realistic, time-evolving high-resolution atmospheric fields.
problem Improving spatial resolution of low-resolution atmospheric images.
method Recurrent, stochastic super-resolution GAN for generating ensembles of time-evolving high-resolution atmospheric fields.
result The GAN produces realistic, temporally consistent super-resolution sequences for radar-measured precipitation and cloud optical thickness.
This paper enhances privacy in statistical model checking of cyber-physical systems.
problem Privacy concerns in consumer-level applications due to statistical model checking.
method Proposes expected differential privacy and a new exponential mechanism for sequential algorithms.
result Demonstrates a novel mechanism to preserve privacy in statistical model checking.