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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,742 papers · 148 categories

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98196294392 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for empirical unfaithfulness

Paper constructs unfaithful probability distributions in binary causal graphs.

problem Unfaithful probability distributions in binary causal graphs.
method Constructs unfaithful probability distributions in binary causal graphs.
result Examples of unfaithful probability distributions in binary causal graphs.

dcFCI discovers causal relationships robustly under latent confounding and mixed data.

problem Causal discovery under latent confounding and unfaithfulness.
method dcFCI integrates a new score to assess PAG compatibility, guided by FCI search.
result Significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods in small and heterogeneous datasets.

Simulation-based inference methods can produce unreliable posterior approximations.

problem Reliability of simulation-based inference methods for scientific use cases.
method Benchmarked algorithms including Neural Posterior Estimation, Neural Ratio Estimation, Sequential Neural Likelihood, and Approximate Bayesian Computation.
result Ensembling posterior surrogates provides more reliable approximations.

YAHPO Gym introduces a new benchmark for evaluating hyperparameter optimization methods.

problem Evaluating and comparing hyperparameter optimization methods on well-curated benchmark suites.
method Surrogate-based benchmark collection of 14 scenarios, each with multi-fidelity and multi-objective hyperparameter optimization problems.
result Surrogate-based benchmarks produce more faithful results than tabular benchmarks.

Method trains deep models to explain predictions with fewer examples.

problem Difficulty in humans understanding deep model predictions.
method Simultaneously trains prediction and explanation models with sparse regularization.
result Improves faithfulness of explanations with fewer examples while maintaining predictive performance.

Measures faithfulness of LLM explanations to reveal hidden biases and misleading claims.

problem LLM explanations can misrepresent the model's reasoning process, leading to over-trust and misuse.
method Defines faithfulness in terms of concept influence and uses counterfactuals and Bayesian models to estimate it.
result Can quantify and discover interpretable patterns of unfaithfulness in LLM explanations.

We study the kernel of the evaluated Burau representation through the braid element σiσi+1σiσ_i σ_{i+1} σ_i. The element is significant as a part of the standard braid relation. We establish the form of this element's image raised to the nthn^{th} power. Interestingly, the cyclotomic polynomials arise and can be used to defin…

2017-12-20abs ↗pdf ↗

We consider spaces of plane curves in the setting of algebraic geometry and of singularity theory. On one hand there are the complete linear systems, on the other we consider unfolding spaces of bivariate polynomials of Brieskorn-Pham type. For suitable open subspaces we can define the bifurcation braid monodromy takin…

2010-03-15abs ↗pdf ↗

A long-standing open problem is to determine for which values of n the Burau representation Psi_n of the braid group B_n is faithful. Following work of Moody, Long-Paton, and Bigelow, the remaining open case is n = 4. One criterion states that Psi_n is unfaithful if and only if there exists a pair of arcs in the n-punc…

2016-10-14abs ↗pdf ↗

Existing dimensionality reduction methods are adept at revealing hidden underlying manifolds arising from high-dimensional data and thereby producing a low-dimensional representation. However, the smoothness of the manifolds produced by classic techniques over sparse and noisy data is not guaranteed. In fact, the embed…

2017-07-21abs ↗pdf ↗

New groups and subgroups classified with representations and properties.

problem Classifying representations of new groups and subgroups.
method Introduced new groups and subgroups, classified representations into GL_n(C), investigated properties.
result Classified homogeneous 2-local representations of M_kVT_n into eight distinct types.

New findings on Jones polynomial for 4-strand braids.

problem Whether there are non-trivial knots with trivial Jones polynomial.
method Study of 4-strand braids, exploration of various properties of hypothetical HOMFLY-PT polynomials.
result Existence of a 1-parameter family of 2-variable polynomials that can be HOMFLY-PT polynomials of some knots.

Paper introduces SDM for detecting LLM hallucinations, improving on entropy tests.

problem Challenges of Large Language Models (LLMs) with non-factual, nonsensical responses.
method Joint clustering on sentence embeddings to measure semantic divergence between prompts and responses.
result SDM framework detects deeper form of arbitrariness in LLM responses.

Bayesian networks are typically faithful, with implications for causal inference.

problem Determining the typicality of faithfulness in Bayesian networks.
method Analysis of Bayesian networks over a given DAG, parametrized by conditional exponential families, and nonparametric conditional densities.
result The faithful Bayesian networks are dense and open with respect to the total variation metric, extending existing results for specific classes of Bayesian networks.

Empirical mode modeling improves state-space analysis of noisy data.

problem Analyzing nonlinear systems with noisy data.
method Combining empirical mode decomposition with empirical dynamic modeling.
result Empirical mode modeling enhances state-space representations in noisy data.

Neural Empirical Bayes estimates source distributions from noisy simulations.

problem Estimating source distributions from noisy, simulated data.
method Uses neural density estimators to estimate a prior or source distribution over uncorrupted samples, then performs posterior inference.
result Recovering ground truth source distributions up to symmetries.

The paper examines the tilted empirical risk's generalization and robustness under negative tilt.

problem The generalization error of machine learning algorithms under negative tilt.
method Uniform and information-theoretic bounds on the tilted generalization error under negative tilt.
result The tilted empirical risk's generalization error has a convergence rate of \(O(n^{-ε/(1+ε)})\).

The abstract warns against flawed empirical research in machine learning.

problem Flawed empirical research in machine learning leading to unreliable results.
method Call for more awareness of experimental knowledge plurality and epistemic limitations.
result Current empirical machine learning research should be exploratory, not confirmatory.

Bayesian Empirical Bayes extends EB to complex structures using probabilistic symmetry.

problem Improving simultaneous inference in complex settings like arrays and graphs.
method Generalized empirical Bayes approach based on probabilistic symmetry.
result BEB outperforms existing methods in denoising arrays and spatial data.

This report is an introduction to mathematical map colouring and the problems posed by Heawood in his paper of 1890. There will be a brief discussion of the Map Colour Theorem; then we will move towards investigating empire maps in the plane and the recent contributions by Wessel. Finally we will conclude with a discus…

2011-06-21abs ↗pdf ↗

Improved analysis of UCRL2 with empirical Bernstein inequality reduces exploration-exploitation regret.

problem Exploration-exploitation in communicating Markov Decision Processes.
method Analysis of UCRL2 with Empirical Bernstein inequalities (UCRL2B).
result Regret bound of O~(DΓSAT)\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{DΓS A T}) for UCRL2B.

Developed accurate empirical potentials for Si:H nanowires using multi-fidelity Gaussian process.

problem Accurate modeling of Si:H nanowires using fast but inaccurate empirical potentials and slow but accurate first-principle calculations.
method Employed multi-fidelity Gaussian process regression to integrate low-fidelity empirical potential data with high-fidelity first-principle calculations.
result Demonstrated the accuracy of developed empirical potentials for Si:H nanowires.

AI agents improve forecast combination in empirical economics.

problem Hidden researcher degrees of freedom in AI-generated code.
method Adapted agent-loop architecture to empirical economics, added holdout evaluation.
result Independent agent searches find better forecast methods than benchmarks.

New approach avoids excess empirical risk in domain generalization.

problem Learning models that generalize to unseen distributions from diverse data sets.
method Minimizes penalty under constraint of optimal empirical risk, leveraging rate-distortion theory.
result Significant improvements in domain generalization performance across multiple methods.

Improved sample complexity for diffusion models without needing empirical risk minimizers.

problem Theoretical limitations in sample complexity for diffusion models.
method Structured decomposition of score estimation error, eliminating dependence on neural network parameters.
result Achieved sample complexity bound of O(ε^(-4)) without empirical risk minimizer access.

New method estimates Schrödinger bridge potentials via empirical risk minimization.

problem Estimating Schrödinger bridge potentials from samples.
method Rewriting Schrödinger system as a fixed-point equation and estimating the potential via empirical risk minimization.
result Uniform concentration of empirical risk around population counterpart under sub-Gaussian assumptions.

The paper improves the empirical bootstrap method for non-normal estimators.

problem Theoretical properties of empirical bootstrap for non-asymptotically normal estimators.
method Establishing limiting distribution, deriving consistency conditions, proposing alternative methods.
result The empirical bootstrap method can be asymptotically consistent under stability conditions.

We investigate the historical volatility of the 100 most capitalized stocks traded in US equity markets. An empirical probability density function (pdf) of volatility is obtained and compared with the theoretical predictions of a lognormal model and of the Hull and White model. The lognormal model well describes the pd…

2002-02-28abs ↗pdf ↗

Examines optimal risk sharing with realistic risk attitudes, finding risk seeking in certain subdomains.

problem Optimal risk sharing with empirically realistic risk attitudes.
method Allows for risk-seeking agents, generalizes expected utility, and uses counter-monotonic improvement theorem.
result First empirical results on optimal risk sharing with realistic risk attitudes.

The paper provides bounds for the empirical angular measure and applies them to improve statistical learning in extreme regions.

problem Estimating the angular measure in high-dimensional data with different distributions.
method Established bounds for the maximal deviations of the empirical angular measure from the true measure, using rank transformation and analyzing the most extreme observations.
result The bounds provide performance guarantees for statistical learning procedures in extreme regions, such as binary classification and anomaly detection.