A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Proposes a machine learning framework for more efficient economic dispatch.
New framework for interpretable firm characteristics factors.
Originally, the Carnot cycle is a theoretical thermodynamic cycle that provides an upper limit on the efficiency that any classical thermodynamic engine can achieve during the conversion of heat into work, or conversely, the efficiency of a refrigeration system in creating a temperature difference by the application of…
Deep-MacroFin uses neural networks to solve complex economic models efficiently.
Current economic theories miss most of economic dynamics.
Traditional centralized energy systems have the disadvantages of difficult management and insufficient incentives. Blockchain is an emerging technology, which can be utilized in energy systems to enhance their management and control. Integrating token economy and blockchain technology, token economic systems in energy …
Artificial intelligence has impacted many aspects of human life. This paper studies the impact of artificial intelligence on economic theory. In particular we study the impact of artificial intelligence on the theory of bounded rationality, efficient market hypothesis and prospect theory.
The origin of economic crises is a key problem for economics. We present a model of long-run competitive markets to show that the multiplicity of behaviors in an economic system, over a long time scale, emerge as statistical regularities (perfectly competitive markets obey Bose-Einstein statistics and purely monopolist…
In complex systems, many different parts interact in non-obvious ways. Traditional research focuses on a few or a single aspect of the problem so as to analyze it with the tools available. To get a better insight of phenomena that emerge from complex interactions, we need instruments that can analyze simultaneously com…
Python tool detects economic crises from S&P500 correlation data.
By analyzing a large data set of daily returns with data clustering technique, we identify economic sectors as clusters of assets with a similar economic dynamics. The sector size distribution follows Zipf's law. Secondly, we find that patterns of daily market-wide economic activity cluster into classes that can be ide…
Economies are complex man-made systems where organisms and markets interact according to motivations and principles not entirely understood yet. The increasing dissatisfaction with the postulates of traditional economics i.e. perfectly rational agents, interacting through efficient markets in the search of equilibrium,…
IntraLayer connects digital finance platforms efficiently.
LemonadeBench evaluates LLMs' economic intuition through a simulated lemonade stand.
The paper proposes a new model for predicting and analyzing economic variables.
The paper introduces GAER to assess market feasibility under geopolitical and institutional constraints.
We study the qualitative and quantitative appearance of stylized facts in several agent-based computational economic market (ABCEM) models. We perform our simulations with the SABCEMM (Simulator for Agent-Based Computational Economic Market Models) tool recently introduced by the authors (Trimborn et al. 2019). Further…
Optimal intervention in economic networks modeled as influence maximization, with hard computational problems.
Paper extends quantile factor analysis with probabilistic methods for better economic policy and financial condition prediction.
Deep RL solves complex economic models with heterogeneous agents.
This study assesses how economic shocks affect the efficiency and robustness of international pesticide trade networks.
This work explains crises in markets without external news using bounded rational agents.
Classic economic science is reaching the limits of its explanatory powers. Complexity science uses an increasingly larger set of different methods to analyze physical, biological, cultural, social, and economic factors, providing a broader understanding of the socio-economic dynamics involved in the development of nati…
Cohort analysis speeds up Bitcoin blockchain data queries.
SOC theory explains financial volatility and economic shocks.
Multivariate volatility modeling and forecasting are crucial in financial economics. This paper develops a copula-based approach to model and forecast realized volatility matrices. The proposed copula-based time series models can capture the hidden dependence structure of realized volatility matrices. Also, this approa…
We study a novel economic network (supply chain) comprised of wire transfers (electronic payment transactions) among the universe of firms in Brazil (6.2 million firms). We construct a directed and weighted network in which vertices represent cities and edges connote pairwise economic dependence between cities. Cities …
We test a historical price time series in a financial market (the NASDAQ 100 index) for a statistical property known as detailed balance. The presence of detailed balance would imply that the market can be modeled by a stochastic process based on a Markov chain, thus leading to equilibrium. In economic terms, a positiv…
Improved MLMC method boosts risk estimation efficiency.
ARISE models efficient markets without periodogram or Gaussianity assumptions.
Corporate governance struggles to curb fraud in a globalized economy.
Determining contributions by sub-portfolios or single exposures to portfolio-wide economic capital for credit risk is an important risk measurement task. Often economic capital is measured as Value-at-Risk (VaR) of the portfolio loss distribution. For many of the credit portfolio risk models used in practice, the VaR c…
QLSTM outperforms LSTM in predicting KSE 100 index movements.
A new ML algorithm solves complex economic control problems.
This paper examines allocation mechanisms in markets with transfer costs, showing how these costs affect economic efficiency.
Before the massive spread of computer technology, information was far from complex. The development of technology shifted the paradigm: from individuals who faced scarce and costly information to individuals who face massive amounts of information accessible at low costs. Nowadays we are living in the era of big data a…
SIMPOL solves complex economic models using numerical methods.
Modeling business cycles via collective risk fluctuations in economic agents' risk space.
The importance of counterparty credit risk to the derivative contracts was demonstrated consistently throughout the financial crisis of 2008. Accurate valuation of Credit value adjustment (CVA) is essential to reflect the economic values of these risks. In the present article, we reviewed several different approaches f…
We introduce a new diffusion process Xt to describe asset prices within an economic bubble cycle. The main feature of the process, which differs from existing models, is the drift term where a mean-reversion is taken based on an exponential decay of the scaled price. Our study shows the scaling factor on Xt is crucial …
By Markowitz geometry we mean the intersection theory of ellipsoids and affine subspaces in a real finite-dimensional linear space. In the paper we give a meticulous and self-contained treatment of this arch-classical subject, which lays a solid mathematical groundwork of Markowitz mean-variance theory of efficient por…
New method quantifies systemic risk of firms in supply networks.
'Ergodicity economics' is criticized as pseudoscience.
Study shows how China's stock market reflects economic demand changes during COVID-19.
This paper presents a simple model to measure the relative economic growth of economic systems. The model considers S-Shaped patterns of economic growth that, represented with a linear model, measure how an economic system grows in comparison with another one. In particular, this model introduces an approach which indi…
FinML-Chain integrates blockchain data for financial machine learning.
Neural networks can learn optimal auction mechanisms and satisfy mode connectivity.
Using the new data from the OECD-WTO world network of economic activities we construct the Google matrix of this directed network and perform its detailed analysis. The network contains 58 countries and 37 activity sectors for years 1995, 2000, 2005, 2008, 2009. The construction of , based on Markov chain transi…