Model earnings call transcripts for better stock price prediction.
problem Predicting future stock price movements using earnings call transcripts.
method Deep learning framework with an attention mechanism to encode text data into vectors for predicting stock price movements.
result The proposed model outperforms traditional machine learning methods in stock price prediction.
Study analyzes deep learning models for financial sentiment in earnings calls.
problem Leveraging NLP for sentiment analysis in financial transcripts.
method Comparative analysis of BERT, FinBERT, and ULMFiT models.
result Models' strengths and limitations in financial sentiment analysis.
Study earnings calls to predict stock price movements, finding them more predictive than traditional data.
problem Improving investment decisions by analyzing earnings calls for stock price predictions.
method Graph Neural Network based approach to process and analyze earnings call transcripts.
result Earnings call transcripts are more predictive of stock price movements than traditional hard data.
Anonymization reduces economic signal extraction from financial texts.
problem Reducing meaningful economic signals from financial texts due to anonymization.
method Analyzed the impact of anonymization on textual understanding and economic signal extraction.
result Information loss due to anonymization is severe and pervasive, outweighing its benefits in certain financial applications.
Improved earnings predictions through text-morphed earnings calls.
problem Improving earnings prediction models using narrative information.
method Introducing a text-morphing methodology to generate counterfactual transcripts.
result Analysts over-react to sentiment and under-react to risk and uncertainty.
FinBERT model identifies key speakers in earnings calls, boosting stock returns.
problem Unequal impact of all speakers in earnings call transcripts on stock returns.
method Utilized FinBERT, a domain-specific transformer model, to parse transcripts and weight speakers' sentiment.
result FinBERT section-weighted sentiment generates significant long-short alpha of 2.03%.
HybridRAG combines KGs and vector retrieval for financial document Q&A.
problem Challenges in extracting and interpreting financial text data.
method Integrates Knowledge Graphs and Vector Retrieval Augmented Generation.
result HybridRAG outperforms traditional methods in Q&A systems for financial documents.
Study improves keyword forecasting in earnings-call prediction markets.
problem Accurately predicting future keyword mentions in earnings calls.
method Experiments on earnings-call mention markets, varying context and market probability, introducing MCP.
result Mixture of market probability and MCP yields the best forecasts.
Advanced AI model predicts stock movements post earnings reports.
problem Inaccurate stock predictions from earnings reports.
method Fine-tuned LLMs with QLoRA compression, integrating financial and market data.
result Significantly improved predictive accuracy compared to benchmarks.
Extracts credit-relevant information from earnings calls.
problem Investors do not fully internalize credit-relevant information from earnings calls.
method Develops a novel technique to extract credit-relevant information from earnings call text.
result The extracted information forecasts future credit spread changes and firm profitability.
Recent advances in high-throughput cDNA sequencing (RNA-Seq) technology have revolutionized transcriptome studies. A major motivation for RNA-Seq is to map the structure of expressed transcripts at nucleotide resolution. With accurate computational tools for transcript reconstruction, this technology may also become us…
LLMs improve stock price forecasting from financial news and reports.
problem Predicting stock prices with high accuracy and robustness.
method Analyzing financial news, reports, and transcripts using LLMs.
result LLMs can improve stock price forecasting but face practical challenges.
Media tone around earnings announcements predicts stock returns.
problem Determining if media tone around earnings announcements provides useful information for stock prices.
method Conducted an event study on media tone around earnings announcements for nonfinancial S&P 500 firms.
result Media tone around earnings announcements predicts abnormal stock returns.
New method uses LLMs to extract financial insights from Q&A sections of reports.
problem Scalability and accuracy issues in extracting valuable insights from financial report Q&A sections.
method Combines retrieval-augmented generation technique with metadata.
result Empirically demonstrates superior performance of the proposed method.
We detect lookahead bias in LLM forecasts using a novel statistical method.
problem Detecting lookahead bias in LLM-generated economic forecasts.
method Developed a statistical procedure using date-only recall queries and estimated Lookahead Propensity (LAP).
result LLM forecasts are contaminated with lookahead bias, as indicated by a positive interaction between LAP and the forecast in accuracy regressions.
Standard ChIP-seq peak calling pipelines seek to differentiate biochemically reproducible signals of individual genomic elements from background noise. However, reproducibility alone does not imply functional regulation (e.g., enhancer activation, alternative splicing). Here we present a general-purpose, interpretable …
Generative AI predicts economic activity from corporate transcripts.
problem Predicting economic activity using existing measures like surveys.
method Extracted managerial expectations from transcripts using generative AI.
result AI Economy Score predicts economic activity up to 10 quarters ahead.
LLMs compress financial texts, but distort decision-making.
problem LLMs compress financial texts, altering decision-making.
method Analyzed two diagnostic patterns: decontextualization and model dependency. Proposed Agentic Context Compression.
result LLM-compressed financial texts alter decision-making.
Auto dealerships receive thousands of calls daily from customers who are interested in sales, service, vendors and jobseekers. With so many calls, it is very important for auto dealers to understand the intent of these calls to provide positive customer experiences that ensure customer satisfaction, deep customer engag…
Deep learning is at the core of recent spoken language understanding (SLU) related tasks. More precisely, deep neural networks (DNNs) drastically increased the performances of SLU systems, and numerous architectures have been proposed. In the real-life context of theme identification of telephone conversations, it is c…
SAE-FiRE extracts key financial info from long documents, improving earnings surprise predictions.
problem Predicting earnings surprises from long, redundant financial documents.
method Sparse Autoencoder feature selection to filter out noise and identify key dimensions.
result SAE-FiRE significantly outperforms baseline approaches in financial datasets.
Adapts causal inference for high-dimensional treatments like text strings.
problem Predicting effects of interventions with many possible variations.
method Adapts classical causal estimators to high-dimensional treatment spaces, balancing moment errors.
result Shows high-dimensional treatment spaces can be addressed with a single model.
To survive environmental conditions, cells transcribe their response activities into encoded mRNA sequences in order to produce certain amounts of protein concentrations. The external conditions are mapped into the cell through the activation of special proteins called transcription factors (TFs). Due to the difficult …
End-to-end ASR error detection using audio-transcript entailment.
problem Detecting transcription errors in ASR systems to prevent error propagation.
method Proposes a novel end-to-end approach using audio-transcript entailment, with acoustic and linguistic encoders.
result Achieves CER of 26.2% on all transcription errors and 23% on medical errors specifically, improving by 12% and 15.4% respectively over a strong baseline.
Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are a ubiquitous tool to model time series data, and have been widely used in two main tasks of Automatic Music Transcription (AMT): note segmentation, i.e. identifying the played notes after a multi-pitch estimation, and sequential post-processing, i.e. correcting note segmentation using tr…
Computational approaches to transcription factor binding site identification have been actively researched for the past decade. Negative examples have long been utilized in de novo motif discovery and have been shown useful in transcription factor binding site search as well. However, understanding of the roles of nega…
AMA-LSTM improves stock volatility prediction using adversarial training.
problem Predicting stock volatility from financial audio data is challenging due to stochasticity and bias.
method Adversarial training to generate perturbations that simulate stochasticity and bias.
result AMA-LSTM outperforms state-of-the-art methods in predicting stock volatility.
CET model uses contrastive learning to improve earnings data predictions.
problem Inaccurate stock predictions due to earnings data's irregular release and fast obsolescence.
method Contrastive Predictive Coding (CPC) for self-supervised learning of earnings data.
result CET model outperforms benchmarks in predicting stock price trends over time.
Inverse Drum Machine separates drum mixes using transcription and synthesis.
problem Separating individual drum tracks from mixed recordings.
method Analysis-by-synthesis framework combining deep learning and automatic transcription.
result Separation quality comparable to supervised methods requiring isolated stems.
Study assesses consistency and reproducibility of LLMs in finance and accounting tasks.
problem Consistency and reproducibility of LLM outputs in finance and accounting research.
method Extensive experimentation with 50 independent runs across 5 tasks using 3 OpenAI models.
result Task-specific patterns of consistency and reproducibility, with binary classification and sentiment analysis achieving near-perfect reproducibility.
New framework predicts earnings announcements using press release content, surpassing earnings surprises.
problem Predicting stock returns based on earnings press releases.
method Compared traditional and BERT-based embeddings of press releases, finding content as informative as earnings surprises.
result FinBERT yields highest predictive power for earnings announcement returns.
MassMutual uses neural network embeddings from financial news to predict downgrade risk.
problem Predicting downgrade risk in financial institutions using alternative data sources.
method Proposes a predictive downgrade model using neural network embeddings of financial news.
result Improves performance of benchmark model by more than 5 percent in terms of AUC and recall rate.
Automatic music transcription is considered to be one of the hardest problems in music information retrieval, yet recent deep learning approaches have achieved substantial improvements on transcription performance. These approaches commonly employ supervised learning models that predict various time-frequency represent…
Investor emotions predict earnings announcements, but excitement lowers returns.
problem The impact of investor emotions on earnings announcements and their returns.
method Social media data analysis over a decade to test the relationship between investor emotions and earnings announcements.
result Excitement about earnings announcements is associated with lower announcement returns.
Study uses neural networks to predict firm earnings, outperforming benchmarks and analysts.
problem Limited coverage and biased estimates by financial analysts.
method Developed a neural network model using 40 years of financial data.
result Model outperforms benchmarks and analysts' forecasts for fiscal-year-end earnings predictions.
Motivation: Cell-biological processes are regulated through a complex network of interactions between genes and their products. The processes, their activating conditions, and the associated transcriptional responses are often unknown. Organism-wide modeling of network activation can reveal unique and shared mechanisms…
Transcriptomics response of SK-N-AS cells to methamidophos (an acetylcholine esterase inhibitor) exposure was measured at 10 time points between 0.5 and 48 h. The data was analyzed using a combination of traditional statistical methods and novel machine learning algorithms for detecting anomalous behavior and infer cau…
This paper aims to explore the mechanical effect of a company's share repurchase on earnings per share (EPS). In particular, while a share repurchase scheme will reduce the overall number of shares, suggesting that the EPS may increase, clearly the expenditure will reduce the net earnings of a company, introducing a tr…
Case Law has a significant impact on the proceedings of legal cases. Therefore, the information that can be obtained from previous court cases is valuable to lawyers and other legal officials when performing their duties. This paper describes a methodology of applying discourse relations between sentences when processi…
Research shows eco-innovation boosts earnings management, especially in constrained firms.
problem The impact of eco-innovation on earnings management in firms with financial constraints.
method Multi-method approach including entropy balancing, PSM, and Heckman Test correction.
result Eco-innovation positively correlates with earnings management, especially in firms facing financial constraints.
The study improves stock market valuation using volatility and earnings data.
problem Improving stock market valuation metrics.
method Time series model for asset returns, multivariate kernel density estimation, linear regression.
result The valuation measure is an improvement over Shiller's P/E ratio.
This study examines how earnings announcements affect option volatility and pricing.
problem The impact of earnings announcements on option volatility and pricing.
method Analysis of extremely short-term options data to study bimodality and concavity in IV curves.
result Investors pay a premium to hedge against extreme volatility during earnings announcements in the presence of concave IV smiles.
Actuaries tackle loss of earning capacity in Denmark, balancing public benefits and private insurance.
problem Balancing public benefits and private insurance for loss of earning capacity in Denmark.
method Innovative approaches from researchers and practitioners, leveraging actuarial expertise.
result Development of equitable, data-driven solutions to mitigate risk and enhance societal well-being.
We generalize the classic Shiller cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio (CAPE) used for prediction of future total returns of the stock market. We treat earnings growth as exogenous. The difference between log wealth and log earnings is modeled as an autoregression of order 1 with linear trend 4.6% and Gaussian inno…
TF-MoDISco (Transcription Factor Motif Discovery from Importance Scores) is an algorithm for identifying motifs from basepair-level importance scores computed on genomic sequence data. This technical note focuses on version v0.5.6.5. The implementation is available at https://github.com/kundajelab/tfmodisco/tree/v0.5.6…
RiskLabs uses LLMs to predict financial risks from multimodal data.
problem Financial risk prediction using AI techniques.
method Integrates multimodal financial data (textual, vocal, time series, news) into LLMs for prediction.
result Empirical results show effectiveness in forecasting market volatility and variance.
Paper uses machine learning for nowcasting corporate earnings from mixed-frequency data.
problem Predicting corporate earnings for a large cross-section of firms with different frequency data.
method Structured machine learning regressions with sparse-group LASSO regularization for panel data.
result Machine learning models outperform traditional methods in nowcasting corporate earnings.
MarketSenseAI uses LLMs to improve stock analysis and outperforms benchmarks.
problem Improving accuracy in stock analysis and selection.
method Combining LLMs with SEC filings, earnings calls, and macroeconomic reports.
result Significant improvement in fundamental analysis accuracy and outperformance of benchmarks.