Media tone around earnings announcements predicts stock returns.
problem Determining if media tone around earnings announcements provides useful information for stock prices.
method Conducted an event study on media tone around earnings announcements for nonfinancial S&P 500 firms.
result Media tone around earnings announcements predicts abnormal stock returns.
CET model uses contrastive learning to improve earnings data predictions.
problem Inaccurate stock predictions due to earnings data's irregular release and fast obsolescence.
method Contrastive Predictive Coding (CPC) for self-supervised learning of earnings data.
result CET model outperforms benchmarks in predicting stock price trends over time.
Model earnings call transcripts for better stock price prediction.
problem Predicting future stock price movements using earnings call transcripts.
method Deep learning framework with an attention mechanism to encode text data into vectors for predicting stock price movements.
result The proposed model outperforms traditional machine learning methods in stock price prediction.
Study earnings calls to predict stock price movements, finding them more predictive than traditional data.
problem Improving investment decisions by analyzing earnings calls for stock price predictions.
method Graph Neural Network based approach to process and analyze earnings call transcripts.
result Earnings call transcripts are more predictive of stock price movements than traditional hard data.
New framework predicts earnings announcements using press release content, surpassing earnings surprises.
problem Predicting stock returns based on earnings press releases.
method Compared traditional and BERT-based embeddings of press releases, finding content as informative as earnings surprises.
result FinBERT yields highest predictive power for earnings announcement returns.
Investor emotions predict earnings announcements, but excitement lowers returns.
problem The impact of investor emotions on earnings announcements and their returns.
method Social media data analysis over a decade to test the relationship between investor emotions and earnings announcements.
result Excitement about earnings announcements is associated with lower announcement returns.
Study uses neural networks to predict firm earnings, outperforming benchmarks and analysts.
problem Limited coverage and biased estimates by financial analysts.
method Developed a neural network model using 40 years of financial data.
result Model outperforms benchmarks and analysts' forecasts for fiscal-year-end earnings predictions.
Extracts credit-relevant information from earnings calls.
problem Investors do not fully internalize credit-relevant information from earnings calls.
method Develops a novel technique to extract credit-relevant information from earnings call text.
result The extracted information forecasts future credit spread changes and firm profitability.
Improved earnings predictions through text-morphed earnings calls.
problem Improving earnings prediction models using narrative information.
method Introducing a text-morphing methodology to generate counterfactual transcripts.
result Analysts over-react to sentiment and under-react to risk and uncertainty.
FinBERT model identifies key speakers in earnings calls, boosting stock returns.
problem Unequal impact of all speakers in earnings call transcripts on stock returns.
method Utilized FinBERT, a domain-specific transformer model, to parse transcripts and weight speakers' sentiment.
result FinBERT section-weighted sentiment generates significant long-short alpha of 2.03%.
This paper aims to explore the mechanical effect of a company's share repurchase on earnings per share (EPS). In particular, while a share repurchase scheme will reduce the overall number of shares, suggesting that the EPS may increase, clearly the expenditure will reduce the net earnings of a company, introducing a tr…
Research shows eco-innovation boosts earnings management, especially in constrained firms.
problem The impact of eco-innovation on earnings management in firms with financial constraints.
method Multi-method approach including entropy balancing, PSM, and Heckman Test correction.
result Eco-innovation positively correlates with earnings management, especially in firms facing financial constraints.
The study improves stock market valuation using volatility and earnings data.
problem Improving stock market valuation metrics.
method Time series model for asset returns, multivariate kernel density estimation, linear regression.
result The valuation measure is an improvement over Shiller's P/E ratio.
This study examines how earnings announcements affect option volatility and pricing.
problem The impact of earnings announcements on option volatility and pricing.
method Analysis of extremely short-term options data to study bimodality and concavity in IV curves.
result Investors pay a premium to hedge against extreme volatility during earnings announcements in the presence of concave IV smiles.
Actuaries tackle loss of earning capacity in Denmark, balancing public benefits and private insurance.
problem Balancing public benefits and private insurance for loss of earning capacity in Denmark.
method Innovative approaches from researchers and practitioners, leveraging actuarial expertise.
result Development of equitable, data-driven solutions to mitigate risk and enhance societal well-being.
We generalize the classic Shiller cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio (CAPE) used for prediction of future total returns of the stock market. We treat earnings growth as exogenous. The difference between log wealth and log earnings is modeled as an autoregression of order 1 with linear trend 4.6% and Gaussian inno…
Paper uses machine learning for nowcasting corporate earnings from mixed-frequency data.
problem Predicting corporate earnings for a large cross-section of firms with different frequency data.
method Structured machine learning regressions with sparse-group LASSO regularization for panel data.
result Machine learning models outperform traditional methods in nowcasting corporate earnings.
SAE-FiRE extracts key financial info from long documents, improving earnings surprise predictions.
problem Predicting earnings surprises from long, redundant financial documents.
method Sparse Autoencoder feature selection to filter out noise and identify key dimensions.
result SAE-FiRE significantly outperforms baseline approaches in financial datasets.
Deep learning models improve earnings prediction accuracy.
problem Reliable prediction of future earnings per share (EPS).
method Comparison of LSTM and TCN models on financial data.
result Both LSTM and TCN models outperform naive models and analysts.
Advanced AI model predicts stock movements post earnings reports.
problem Inaccurate stock predictions from earnings reports.
method Fine-tuned LLMs with QLoRA compression, integrating financial and market data.
result Significantly improved predictive accuracy compared to benchmarks.
SAGA predicts multi-year earnings with adaptive intervals, improving forecast accuracy.
problem Forecasting long-range nonlinear structure in lifetime earnings.
method Decoder-only transformer for irregular tabular sequences, split conformal calibration.
result Significant improvement in forecast accuracy compared to existing methods.
HSR reduces analyst earnings forecast errors by lowering travel friction.
problem How HSR connectivity affects analyst earnings forecast errors in China.
method Firm-year panel data from 2008-2019; placebo test to rule out pre-existing trends.
result HSR reduces analyst earnings forecast errors after connectivity, not before.
Study analyzes deep learning models for financial sentiment in earnings calls.
problem Leveraging NLP for sentiment analysis in financial transcripts.
method Comparative analysis of BERT, FinBERT, and ULMFiT models.
result Models' strengths and limitations in financial sentiment analysis.
Machine learning improves earnings forecasting accuracy and speed.
problem Improving earnings forecasting accuracy and speed.
method Adopting machine learning models for earnings forecasting.
result Machine learning model outperforms traditional models in accuracy and speed.
Firms disclosing positive earnings surprises are more likely to disclose ESG information.
problem Transparency vs. performance in financial markets.
method Empirical analysis of earnings surprises and ESG disclosures.
result Positive earnings firms disclose more ESG information than negative earnings firms.
The study reveals distinct patterns in retail investors' holding periods affecting stock returns.
problem Understanding the impact of retail investors' investment horizons on stock returns.
method Using self-reported holding periods from StockTwits, the study categorizes retail investors into long-horizon and short-horizon groups and analyzes their return patterns.
result Long-horizon retail investors exhibit underreaction to earnings announcements, while short-horizon investors show overreaction.
The purpose of this paper is to introduce a new growth adjusted price-earnings measure (GA-P/E) and assess its efficacy as measure of value and predictor of future stock returns. Taking inspiration from the interpretation of the traditional price-earnings ratio as a period of time, the new measure computes the requisit…
We study an option pricing framework that accounts for the price impact of an earnings announcement (EA), and analyze the behavior of the implied volatility surface prior to the event. On the announcement date, we incorporate a random jump to the stock price to represent the shock due to earnings. We consider different…
Study shows GPT's earnings forecasts are human-like but not always accurate.
problem Information friction in AI-generated financial analysis.
method Examined GPT's earnings forecasts following corporate earnings releases and proposed a diagnostic framework.
result GPT's narrative attention is consistent and human-like but not always associated with higher forecast accuracy.
Study predicts stock price direction on earnings announcement days using multi-modal deep learning.
problem Predicting stock price movements during earnings announcements is challenging due to market noise and discontinuities.
method Constructed a multi-modal feature space combining fundamental metrics, technical indicators, and sentiment scores from financial news articles. Evaluated LSTM and Transformer models against a baseline.
result Transformer model outperforms LSTM in identifying volatile movements, achieving higher macro F1-score.
LLMs outperform human analysts in predicting earnings direction.
problem Evaluating financial statements without narrative or industry-specific information.
method Trained GPT4 on standardized, anonymous financial statements and instructed to predict earnings direction.
result LLMs predict earnings directionally with accuracy comparable to narrowly trained ML models.
New financial price model using earning yield derived from CIR process.
problem Excess volatility and equity premium puzzles in financial markets.
method Proposes a new financial price process based on earning yield and Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) process.
result Derives analytically stylized facts of financial prices and returns, including power law distribution of returns and fat-tailed distribution of prices.
Paper introduces a new project control method using Monte Carlo and statistical learning.
problem Project control under uncertainty.
method Integrates Earned Value Methodology with Monte Carlo simulation and statistical learning.
result Estimates probabilities of project success and duration.
New attacks inflate earnings while reducing fraud scores, potentially millions at stake.
problem Manipulating financial reports to hide distress and gain.
method Maximum Violated Multi-Objective (MVMO) attacks that adapt search direction.
result Inflation of earnings by 100-200% while reducing fraud scores by 15% in 50% of cases.
Study improves keyword forecasting in earnings-call prediction markets.
problem Accurately predicting future keyword mentions in earnings calls.
method Experiments on earnings-call mention markets, varying context and market probability, introducing MCP.
result Mixture of market probability and MCP yields the best forecasts.
Financial statements contain quantitative information and manager's subjective evaluation of firm's financial status. Using information released in U.S. 10-K filings. Both qualitative and quantitative appraisals are crucial for quality financial decisions. To extract such opinioned statements from the reports, we built…
The paper certifies AI reliability via sampling and calibration, providing exact guarantees.
problem Ensuring trust in black-box AI systems' outputs.
method Self-consistency sampling and conformal calibration.
result Reliability levels derived from these methods offer finite-sample guarantees.
Study evaluates valuation models for UK companies using case studies.
problem Determining how accounting numbers affect business value.
method Comprehensive review of three valuation models: FCFVM, REVM, AEGM.
result Accounting numbers through valuation models can affect business value.
A modular cash-overlay rule for allocating between a fixed growth-defensive risky sleeve and interest-bearing cash.
problem Drawdown control
method Continuous cash-overlay filters
result Earnings an 18.83% CAGR versus 16.62% for 100% R
Anonymization reduces economic signal extraction from financial texts.
problem Reducing meaningful economic signals from financial texts due to anonymization.
method Analyzed the impact of anonymization on textual understanding and economic signal extraction.
result Information loss due to anonymization is severe and pervasive, outweighing its benefits in certain financial applications.
AMA-LSTM improves stock volatility prediction using adversarial training.
problem Predicting stock volatility from financial audio data is challenging due to stochasticity and bias.
method Adversarial training to generate perturbations that simulate stochasticity and bias.
result AMA-LSTM outperforms state-of-the-art methods in predicting stock volatility.
In 2016, the majority of full-time employed women in the U.S. earned significantly less than comparable men. The extent to which women were affected by gender inequality in earnings, however, depended greatly on socio-economic characteristics, such as marital status or educational attainment. In this paper, we analyzed…
We argue that an important contributing factor into market inefficiency is the lack of a robust mechanism for the stock price to rise if a company has good earnings, e.g., via buybacks/dividends. Instead, the stock price is prone to volatility due to rather random perception/interpretation of earnings announcements (am…
Study finds stocks with common firm fears earn lower returns.
problem Identifying and quantifying firm-level investor fears.
method Analysis of equity options to identify common firm-level fears and their impact on stock returns.
result Stocks with exposure to common bad fears earn lower returns and require higher compensation.
Paper uses machine learning to analyze stock market anomalies, predicting drift direction and portfolio performance.
problem Capturing dynamics of Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift (PEAD) using machine learning.
method Uses Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) with genetic algorithm optimization to analyze PEAD dynamics.
result Demonstrates how PEAD dynamics are influenced by different factors across sectors and quarters.
A foundational approach is developed for a mathematical theory of managerial disclosure in relation to asset pricing; this involves both the earnings guidance disclosed by firm management and market `trackers' pricing the firm's exposure to quotable risks.
Uniswap v3 LPs suffer significant Impermanent Loss despite higher fees.
problem Impermanent Loss in leveraged liquidity provision on Uniswap v3.
method Analysis of 17 pools covering 43% of TVL, calculating fees and IL.
result LPs would have been better off by $60.8m had they HODLd.
EDINET-Bench evaluates LLMs on complex financial tasks using Japanese financial statements.
problem Challenges in evaluating LLMs on financial tasks due to specialized expertise and scarce benchmarks.
method Developed EDINET-Bench, an open-source Japanese financial benchmark for LLMs on tasks like fraud detection and earnings forecasting.
result State-of-the-art LLMs perform only marginally better than logistic regression in financial tasks, highlighting the need for more realistic benchmarks.