Unified theoretical guarantees for distribution-free changepoint detection and testing.
problem Distribution-free changepoint inference with finite-sample validity and consistency.
method Distribution-free changepoint localization using conformal p-values with theoretical guarantees.
result Unified distribution-free guarantees for changepoint detection, localization, and testing.
The paper proposes a method for distribution-free prediction sets that adapt to unknown temporal changes.
problem Distribution-free prediction sets require reliable calibration data, which is often unavailable in real-world settings with temporal changes.
method The method selects an adaptive window to construct prediction sets, optimizing a bias-variance tradeoff.
result The method provides sharp coverage guarantees and is shown to be adaptive to temporal drift through numerical experiments.
FaiREE provides fair classification with guarantees for small datasets.
problem Fairness in classification often requires large sample sizes and distributional assumptions.
method FaiREE offers finite-sample and distribution-free fairness guarantees.
result FaiREE achieves optimal accuracy and satisfies various fairness notions.
Method constructs nonparametric prediction intervals with finite-sample guarantees.
problem Nonparametric instrumental variable regression with finite-sample coverage.
method Conformal inference framework applied to NPIV, combining with various estimators.
result Distribution-free, finite-sample coverage over chosen IV shifts.
This paper offers a distribution-free method for post-detection changepoint localization.
problem Locating the exact time of a change in distribution after a sequential detection procedure.
method A distribution-free framework using conformal test martingales for sequential change detection and post-detection inference.
result Valid post-detection coverage guarantees and non-asymptotic bounds on confidence set size.
Large language models can't efficiently reason conditionally in a distribution-free setting.
problem Impossibility of conditional PAC-efficient reasoning in large language models.
method Proof of impossibility in a distribution-free setting for non-atomic input spaces.
result Any algorithm achieving conditional PAC efficiency must defer to the expert model with high probability.
FedFaiREE addresses fairness in decentralized learning with small samples.
problem Ensuring fairness in decentralized federated learning with limited data.
method FedFaiREE is a post-processing algorithm for distribution-free fair learning in decentralized settings with small samples.
result FedFaiREE provides theoretical guarantees for both fairness and accuracy in decentralized environments.
Split conformal prediction provides finite-sample guarantees for black-box models without distributional assumptions.
problem Weak performance guarantees for modern predictive models under minimal assumptions.
method Develops finite-sample guarantees for split conformal prediction, a method that uses nested prediction sets and order statistics.
result The coverage of prediction sets based on order statistics stochastically dominates the Beta distribution.
Study robust linear regression without distributional assumptions for heavy-tailed responses.
problem Linear regression with heavy-tailed responses and no distributional assumptions.
method Combining truncated least squares, median-of-means, and aggregation theory to construct a non-linear estimator.
result Achieves excess risk of order d/n with optimal sub-exponential tail. Paper develops a new algorithm to improve screening processes.
problem Improving the efficiency and accuracy of screening processes.
method Developed a distribution-free screening algorithm called Calibrated Subset Selection (CSS).
result CSS provides near-optimal shortlists with provable diversity guarantees.
New method relaxes TV distance for two-sample testing without distributional assumptions.
problem Challenges in certifying equality or providing tight bounds on TV distance for two distributions.
method Examined blurred total variation distance, a relaxation of TV distance.
result Provided theoretical guarantees for upper and lower bounds on blurred TV distance.
A method for making predictions with a reject option using conformal prediction.
problem Uncertainty in machine learning predictions, especially when models are unsure.
method Formalizing ML with reject option, using conformal prediction for distribution-free error guarantees.
result Theoretical guarantees on error rate for prediction sets with distribution-free validity.
Conformal prediction provides distribution-free uncertainty quantification for black-box models.
problem Uncertainty quantification for high-risk machine learning applications.
method Conformal prediction creates valid uncertainty sets without distributional assumptions.
result Sets contain the ground truth with a specified probability, e.g., 90%.
The paper tackles uncertainty quantification for classification under label shift without assuming i.i.d. data.
problem Uncertainty quantification for classification under label shift in non-i.i.d. settings.
method The paper uses conformal prediction and post-hoc binning for distribution-free UQ, and reweights these methods for label shift.
result The reweighted methods improve UQ performance under label shift, preserving coverage and calibration.
Algorithm learns without knowing distribution, reducing error.
problem Sequential prediction with adversarial injections and abstentions.
method Boosting procedure of weak learners for general VC classes.
result Sublinear error guarantees for general VC classes.
Method predicts NAFLD risk with high accuracy and distribution-free coverage guarantees.
problem Insufficient population-level screening tools for NAFLD.
method Gradient-boosted decision trees with conformal prediction.
result Method achieves AUROC of 0.912 internally and 0.891 externally, superior to other models.
The paper develops a method to create non-asymptotic confidence ellipsoids for linear regression without strong noise distribution assumptions.
problem Constructing reliable confidence regions for linear regression with finite sample sizes and general noise distributions.
method The paper introduces the SPS EOA algorithm to create non-asymptotically guaranteed confidence ellipsoids for linear regression problems.
result The sizes of SPS outer ellipsoids are shown to decrease at the optimal rate for linear regression problems.
Conformal prediction offers distribution-free inference for complex models.
problem Traditional predictive inference methods are limited by assumptions about data distributions and model details.
method Conformal prediction uses symmetry assumptions and treats learning algorithms as black boxes.
result Conformal prediction provides exact finite-sample guarantees, even under limited assumptions.
CROC identifies the earliest-changing stream as the root cause in multi-stream data.
problem Distribution-free root cause analysis in multi-stream data with unknown distributional changes.
method Conformal p-values and finite-sample valid confidence sets.
result CROC efficiently isolates the root cause under minimal assumptions.
Paper extends conformal prediction to complex survey data.
problem Applying distribution-free prediction intervals to complex survey data.
method Design-based conformal prediction for non-exchangeable data.
result Empirical guarantees of finite-sample coverage for complex survey data.
New method optimizes prediction set volume in conformal prediction.
problem Achieving volume optimality in conformal prediction without sacrificing coverage guarantees.
method Dynamic programming algorithm for finding near-optimal volume unions of k-intervals.
result Efficient algorithm finds unions of k-intervals with near-optimal volume for any distribution.
New framework for robust uncertainty quantification in strategic settings.
problem Machine learning model predictions can be strategically altered by informed agents.
method Strategic Conformal Prediction framework
result Theoretical guarantees and experimental validation show remarkable effectiveness.
New model for detecting communities in weighted bipartite networks.
problem No model for community detection in overlapping bipartite weighted networks.
method Introduces BiMMDF model allowing any distribution with block structure.
result Efficient algorithm with theoretical guarantee of consistent estimation.
We introduce a modular framework for market making. It combines cost-function based automated market makers with bandit algorithms. We obtain worst-case profits guarantee's relative to the best in hindsight within a class of natural "overround" cost functions . This combination allow us to have distribution-free guaran…
A stability-based method selects the most desirable conformal prediction set.
problem Selecting the most desirable conformal prediction set from multiple valid sets invalidates coverage guarantees.
method A stability-based approach that ensures coverage for the selected prediction set.
result The stability-based approach maintains coverage guarantees for the selected prediction set.
CREDO combines credal and conformal methods to create interpretable prediction intervals.
problem Overconfident prediction intervals in regions of model extrapolation.
method CREDO uses a credal envelope to widen intervals in weak evidence regions and then applies conformal calibration.
result CREDO prediction intervals are interpretable and maintain target coverage.
A new model for detecting overlapping communities in weighted networks.
problem Community detection in overlapping weighted networks with mixed membership and edge weights.
method Mixed membership distribution-free (MMDF) model with an efficient spectral algorithm and fuzzy weighted modularity.
result The MMDF model can estimate community memberships and evaluate community quality for weighted networks.
JAWS audits predictive uncertainty under covariate shift using jackknife+ weighted methods.
problem Auditing predictive uncertainty under data distribution shifts.
method JAW and JAWA methods for distribution-free uncertainty quantification.
result JAW relaxes the jackknife+'s assumption of data exchangeability for covariate shift.
FactTest assesses LLM factuality with Type I error control.
problem Lack of rigorous factuality verification for LLMs.
method Formulates factuality testing as hypothesis testing, ensuring Type I and II error control.
result Improves model accuracy by over 40% in abstaining from unknown questions.
EPICSCORE improves conformal scores by explicitly accounting for epistemic uncertainty.
problem Overconfident predictions in data-sparse regions due to lack of epistemic uncertainty.
method Model-agnostic approach using Bayesian techniques like Gaussian Processes, Dropout, and Regression Trees.
result Enhanced predictive intervals that adaptively expand in sparse data regions and maintain compact intervals in abundant data.
In many large-scale machine learning applications, data are accumulated with time, and thus, an appropriate model should be able to update in an online paradigm. Moreover, as the whole data volume is unknown when constructing the model, it is desired to scan each data item only once with a storage independent with the …
FavMac maximizes value while controlling cost in multi-label prediction.
problem Value-maximizing predictions with strict cost control in multi-label scenarios.
method FavMac pipeline combining any multi-label classifier with online update mechanism.
result FavMac achieves higher value with strict cost control compared to baselines.
MAPIE provides uncertainty quantification for ML models.
problem Estimating uncertainties in ML model predictions.
method Conformal prediction methods for single-output regression and multi-class classification.
result Strong theoretical guarantees on marginal coverages.
MAPS algorithm creates reliable prediction intervals for high-dimensional data.
problem Computing reliable conditional prediction intervals in high-dimensional settings.
method Lifted predictive model (LPM) and MAPS algorithm for distribution-free intervals.
result MAPS algorithm produces valid prediction intervals for any trained model.
Unified framework for fair classification with group-blindness/awareness guarantees.
problem Challenges in enforcing fairness and group-blindness in binary classification.
method Unified framework based on post-processing procedure, applicable to various group fairness notions.
result Minimax rate-optimality of the proposed algorithm with controlled excess risk.
New framework controls statistical dispersion for high-stakes applications.
problem Understanding and controlling the dispersion of loss distributions in high-stakes applications.
method Simple yet flexible framework for distribution-free control of statistical dispersion measures.
result Proposed methods control statistical dispersion measures with societal implications.
Histogram binning method proven with guarantees without splitting data.
problem Proving theoretical guarantees for histogram binning without sample splitting.
method Using Markov property of order statistics to prove calibration guarantees for original method.
result Proves histogram binning has strong calibration guarantees without sample splitting.
Unified framework for reliable uncertainty quantification in RL.
problem Uncertainty quantification in high-stakes reinforcement learning.
method Unified conformal prediction framework integrating distributional RL and conformal calibration.
result Significantly improved coverage and reliability over standard methods.
Bayesian quadrature improves conformal prediction for better risk assessment.
problem Improving risk assessment for machine learning models.
method Revisiting conformal prediction from a Bayesian perspective and proposing Bayesian quadrature.
result Provides interpretable guarantees and a richer representation of likely losses.
Study three types of uncertainty quantification for binary classification without distributional assumptions.
problem Uncertainty quantification for binary classification in a distribution-free setting.
method Established theorems connecting calibration, confidence intervals, and prediction sets for score-based classifiers.
result Distribution-free calibration is only possible using scoring functions that partition feature space into countably many sets.
We propose a data-driven approach to quantify the uncertainty of models constructed by kernel methods. Our approach minimizes the needed distributional assumptions, hence, instead of working with, for example, Gaussian processes or exponential families, it only requires knowledge about some mild regularity of the measu…
The paper develops robust tests for detecting independence in synchronous stochastic systems with finite sample guarantees.
problem Detecting independence in synchronous stochastic systems with finite sample guarantees.
method Combines confidence region estimates with permutation tests and dependence measures to detect nonlinear dependence.
result Consistent hypothesis tests for detecting independence under mild assumptions.
GC-FCP provides efficient federated CP with group-conditional coverage guarantees.
problem Uncertainty quantification in federated settings with distributed calibration data.
method Group-conditional federated conformal prediction (GC-FCP) using group-stratified coresets.
result GC-FCP offers efficient aggregation and calibration compared to centralized methods.
Book teaches conformal prediction for complex machine learning systems.
problem Formal guarantees for machine learning prediction sets.
method Permutation tests and exchangeability for distribution-free inference.
result Provides formal, finite-sample guarantees for machine learning.
Improves conditional coverage of regression models using conformal prediction.
problem Lack of conditional coverage guarantees in conformal prediction methods.
method Proposes a novel algorithm to train a regression function to improve conditional coverage after split conformal prediction.
result Establishes an upper bound for miscoverage gap and proposes an end-to-end algorithm to control it.
The paper develops distribution-free methods for ordinal classification.
problem Constructing valid prediction sets for ordinal classification problems.
method Leveraging conformal prediction and multiple testing with FWER control.
result The proposed methods achieve satisfactory levels of marginal and class-specific conditional coverages.
This paper develops a method for estimating animal motion submanifolds using distribution-free learning.
problem Estimating submanifold models of animal motion supported on a configuration manifold.
method Formulates a novel method based on distribution-free learning over the manifold of measurements.
result Derives approximations of the unknown mapping that converge with rates dependent on sample size and dimensionality.
Locus scores predictions for risk, reducing large-loss events.
problem Deployment cost from inaccurate predictions, especially large losses.
method Distribution-free loss-scale reliability score using any predictive distribution.
result Reduces large-loss frequency compared to standard heuristics.