New dispersion indices based on inaccuracy and divergence introduced for information measures.
problem Measuring variability in uncertainty measures.
method Introducing new dispersion indices based on Kerridge inaccuracy and Kullback-Leibler divergence.
result Properties, bounds, and examples of new dispersion indices presented.
Probabilistic modeling is cyclical: we specify a model, infer its posterior, and evaluate its performance. Evaluation drives the cycle, as we revise our model based on how it performs. This requires a metric. Traditionally, predictive accuracy prevails. Yet, predictive accuracy does not tell the whole story. We propose…
New Gini indices capture more nuanced income inequality.
problem Measuring joint dispersion across multiple observations.
method Axiomatic approach to define and characterize n-th order Gini deviations.
result Higher-order Gini coefficients reveal more extreme income disparities.
Cross-sectional signatures of market panic were recently discussed on daily time scales in [1], extended here to a study of cross-sectional properties of stocks on intra-day time scales. We confirm specific intra-day patterns of dispersion and kurtosis, and find that the correlation across stocks increases in times of …
Dynamics of the major USA market indices DJIA, S&P, Nasdaq, and NYSE is analyzed from the point of view of the random walking problem with two-step correlations of the market moves. The parameters characterizing the stochastic dynamics are determined empirically from the historical quotes for the daily, weekly, and mon…
Skewness dispersion predicts future stock market returns, especially in months with monetary policy announcements.
problem Predicting future stock market returns using skewness dispersion.
method Cross-sectional analysis of firm-level realized skewness and stock market returns.
result Skewness dispersion is a significant predictor of future stock market returns, robust to various estimation methods.
Study uses ML to predict currency and bond returns from news sentiment.
problem Predicting financial returns from news sentiment.
method Pretrained FinBERT model on finance-specific language, XGBoost classifier, SHAP for interpretability.
result XGBoost strategy outperforms benchmarks with Sharpe ratios > 5.
New heat dispersion laws established for smooth compact manifolds.
problem Understanding heat dispersion in smooth compact manifolds.
method Established new heat dispersion laws through Theorem 1.1 and explored them further with Propositions 3.1 and 3.2.
result New heat dispersion laws for smooth compact manifolds.
MallowsPO enhances LLM fine-tuning with a dispersion index of human preferences.
problem Lack of diversity in human preferences in DPO.
method Developed a dispersion index based on Mallows' theory to characterize preference diversity.
result Demonstrated improved performance in various tasks using the dispersion index.
Geometric focusing affects dispersive estimates for Schrödinger and wave equations.
problem Long-time decay rate in dispersive estimates for Schrödinger and wave equations on non-trapping asymptotically conic manifolds and exact metric cones.
method Classifying the long-time decay rate in dispersive estimates for the Schrödinger and wave equations on non-trapping asymptotically conic manifolds and exact metric cones in terms of the intensity of geometric focusing.
result Each multiplicity of conjugate points within distance π on Y = ∂X0 leads to a |t|1/2-loss in the long-time decay order and a half-order shift in the regularity index in the dispersive estimate for the Schrödinger equation.
Accurate statistical models of neural spike responses can characterize the information carried by neural populations. But the limited samples of spike counts during recording usually result in model overfitting. Besides, current models assume spike counts to be Poisson-distributed, which ignores the fact that many neur…
Study on stock market volatility and return dispersion during COVID-19.
problem Impact of COVID-19 on stock market volatility and return dispersion.
method Used Google index to proxy epidemic impact, modeled volatility, and analyzed influencing factors of log-return.
result Volatility significantly affected by epidemic and cross-sectional return dispersion, with positive coefficients.
In the recent years, banks have sold structured products such as worst-of options, Everest and Himalayas, resulting in a short correlation exposure. They have hence become interested in offsetting part of this exposure, namely buying back correlation. Two ways have been proposed for such a strategy : either pure correl…
The study examines Hawkes processes and their long-term behavior.
problem Understanding the long-term behavior of Hawkes processes.
method Proving functional limit theorems under various conditions on the dispersion of child events.
result Functional limit theorems hold for Hawkes processes with different levels of child event dispersion.
Urban dispersal events are processes where an unusually large number of people leave the same area in a short period. Early prediction of dispersal events is important in mitigating congestion and safety risks and making better dispatching decisions for taxi and ride-sharing fleets. Existing work mostly focuses on pred…
New framework controls statistical dispersion for high-stakes applications.
problem Understanding and controlling the dispersion of loss distributions in high-stakes applications.
method Simple yet flexible framework for distribution-free control of statistical dispersion measures.
result Proposed methods control statistical dispersion measures with societal implications.
Machine learning classifies surface wave dispersion curves from ambient noise.
problem Classifying surface wave dispersion curves from ambient noise.
method Convolutional neural network (U-net) with transfer learning and supervised learning.
result Machine classification nearly identical to human-picked phases.
Bayesian model tackles spatial count data issues with flexible non-parametric techniques.
problem Challenges in traditional parametric models for spatial count data with unbalanced distributions and complex dependencies.
method Bayesian semi-parametric spatial dispersed count model combining non-parametric techniques and adapted count models.
result Demonstrates superior performance in managing dispersion and capturing intricate spatial patterns.
Bayesian Quadrature improves ensembling for neural networks with dispersed likelihood peaks.
problem Ensembling neural networks struggles with dispersed, narrow peaks in likelihood surfaces.
method Uses Bayesian Quadrature to construct weighted ensembles of architectures.
result Empirically outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in test likelihood, accuracy, and expected calibration error.
We consider time-domain digital backpropagation with chromatic dispersion filters jointly optimized and quantized using machine-learning techniques. Compared to the baseline implementations, we show improved BER performance and >40% power dissipation reductions in 28-nm CMOS.
Machine learning techniques have recently received significant attention as promising approaches to deal with the optical channel impairments, and in particular, the nonlinear effects. In this work, a machine learning-based classification technique, known as the Parzen window (PW) classifier, is applied to mitigate the…
Study on billiard trajectories with fixed bounces.
problem Counting periodic trajectories with specific bounces.
method Analyzes two-dimensional dispersive billiard systems.
result Asymptotic growth of primitive periodic trajectories.
Unified framework for measuring concentration in weighted networks considering both weight distributions and network structure.
problem Traditional indices neglect the topology of relationships among network elements.
method Develops a family of topology-aware concentration indices that jointly account for weight distributions and network structure.
result The proposed indices preserve key properties and allow concentration to be evaluated across different dimensions of dependence.
Paper transforms a complex equation into simpler forms for analysis.
problem Analyzing a fourth-order dispersive flow equation on Kähler manifolds.
method Developed the generalized Hasimoto transformation to simplify the equation.
result Explicit expressions derived for three examples of compact Kähler manifolds.
A new model relaxes constraints on exponential dispersion models.
problem Tight conditions on cumulant function limit the class of exponential dispersion models.
method Introduces K-LED model with Legendre cumulant function and Bregman divergence guidance.
result The model allows for easier computation of mean parameter and includes various distributions.
We explore a decomposition in which returns on a large class of portfolios relative to the market depend on a smooth non-negative drift and changes in the asset price distribution. This decomposition is obtained using general continuous semimartingale price representations, and is thus consistent with virtually any ass…
Reduced-order model improves LES for atmospheric pollutant dispersion.
problem Accurate near-field pollutant concentration tracking in urban areas.
method Combining POD and GPR for non-intrusive reduced-order modeling.
result Component-by-component optimization captures spatial scales in high-order modes.
Study examines market response to concentrated policy communication using entropy measures.
problem Characterizing market response under concentrated policy communication.
method Jointly examines dispersion and information complexity (entropy) using sliding window cumulative entropy.
result Entropy captures both market volatility and narrative constraints, signaling coherent policy-driven moves.
Dropout improves regularization in flexible models for rare features.
problem Understanding theoretical properties of dropout in generalized linear models.
method Theoretical analysis and application to adaptive smoothing with B-splines.
result Dropout prefers rare features in mean and dispersion parameters.
New model predicts weekly earthquakes with better tail risk assessment.
problem Violation of Poisson assumption in seismic data.
method Neural network for per-cell overdispersion estimation.
result 8.6% reduction in mean pinball deviation, 12.5% lower CRPS in tail events.
The standard deviation and Gini mean difference order based on tail behavior.
problem Ordering between standard deviation and Gini mean difference for real-valued risks.
method Analysis of the mean excess function of the pairwise difference ∣X−X′∣. result Dominance regimes of SD and GMD are determined by tail behavior of the distribution.
Study dispersive estimates for Schrödinger and wave equations on a cone with specific metric.
problem Pointwise decay estimates for Schrödinger and wave equations on a product cone.
method Modified Hadamard parametrix on Y with ε>π to prove dispersive estimates. result Threshold of conjugate radius ε>π for pointwise dispersive estimates. Proposes a new portfolio optimization method considering reward, dispersion, and asymmetry.
problem Capturing fat-tails and asymmetry in asset return distributions.
method Market model with tempered stable distribution; extended mean-variance optimization.
result Closed-form solutions for VaR and CVaR; efficient frontier extended to three dimensions.
We discuss a short-time existence theorem of solutions to the initial value problem for a third order dispersive flow for closed curves into a compact almost Hermitian manifold. Our equations geometrically generalize a physical model describing the motion of vortex filament. The classical energy method cannot work for …
The uncertainty or the variability of the data may be treated by considering, rather than a single value for each data, the interval of values in which it may fall. This paper studies the derivation of basic description statistics for interval-valued datasets. We propose a geometrical approach in the determination of s…
Neural networks improve wave-equation simulation accuracy.
problem Inaccurate discretization of Laplacian in wave-equation simulation leads to numerical dispersion.
method Intersperse CNNs between low-fidelity timesteps to correct wavefield and limit numerical dispersion.
result Neural network augmentation reduces numerical dispersion artifacts in wave-equation simulation.
The purpose of this paper is to study the generalized Fong--Vasicek two-factor interest rate model with stochastic volatility. In this model the dispersion of the stochastic short rate (square of volatility) is assumed to be stochastic as well and it follows a non-negative process with volatility proportional to the sq…
We study productivity dispersions across workers, firms and industrial sectors. Empirical study of the Japanese data shows that they all obey the Pareto law, and also that the Pareto index decreases with the level of aggregation. In order to explain these two stylized facts, we propose a theoretical framework built upo…
Improved peak detection in ChIP-seq data reduces over-dispersion.
problem Over-dispersion in ChIP-seq data reduces peak detection accuracy.
method Supervised segmentation models with alternative noise assumptions.
result Improved peak detection accuracy compared to natural assumptions.
Enhances clustering quality evaluation in noisy data.
problem Reliable clustering quality assessment in noisy Gaussian mixtures.
method Feature Importance Rescaling (FIR) method.
result FIR improves correlation between cluster validity indices and ground truth.
We classify the dispersive Poisson brackets with one dependent variable and two independent variables, with leading order of hydrodynamic type, up to Miura transformations. We show that, in contrast to the case of a single independent variable for which a well known triviality result exists, the Miura equivalence class…
Paper proves vanishing terms in a second Poisson bracket for a specific system.
problem Proving polynomiality of coefficients in the dispersion parameter expansion of the second Poisson bracket.
method Bi-Hamiltonian recursion and Liu-Pandharipande relations.
result Proves vanishing terms in the second Poisson bracket expansion.
Wasserstein Discriminant Analysis (WDA) is a new supervised method that can improve classification of high-dimensional data by computing a suitable linear map onto a lower dimensional subspace. Following the blueprint of classical Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), WDA selects the projection matrix that maximizes the …
A new filter design improves system identification accuracy.
problem Improving system identification accuracy for various system types.
method Generalized proportionate-type normalized subband adaptive filter (GPtNSAF) using least squares on subband errors with a sparsity penalty.
result GPtNSAF benefits from increasing subbands more than sparsity for quasi-sparse or dispersive systems, and both aspects are complementary for sparse systems.
Benchmark evaluates financial misinformation detection models, revealing weaknesses without external context.
problem Detecting financial misinformation without external references.
method RFC Bench at paragraph level, two tasks: reference-free detection and comparison-based diagnosis.
result Performance improves with comparative context, revealing model weaknesses in reference-free settings.
Chronos models improve financial forecasting by integrating multivariate data.
problem Improving financial forecasting accuracy using multivariate data.
method Evaluation of Chronos-2 on multivariate and univariate financial forecasting models.
result Multivariate forecasts consistently outperform univariate forecasts, especially for interest rates.
New method calculates DMN log-likelihood faster.
problem Precise and fast computation of DMN log-likelihood.
method Derived a closed form expression using gamma function properties.
result Closed form calculation is faster with same accuracy.
Euler's equations for a two-dimensional system can be written in Hamiltonian form, where the Poisson bracket is the Lie-Poisson bracket associated to the Lie algebra of divergence free vector fields. We show how to derive the Poisson brackets of 2d hydrodynamics of ideal fluids as a reduction from the one associated to…