A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
This paper improves typhoon intensity prediction using social media data and semantic word embeddings.
Monitoring of disasters is crucial for mitigating their effects on the environment and human population, and can be facilitated by the use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), equipped with camera sensors that produce aerial photos of the areas of interest. A modern technique for recognition of events based on aerial pho…
Graph Attention Networks predict power outage durations from natural disasters.
Bayesian model uses mobile data to assess business resilience after hurricanes.
Paper examines how income support affects retirement decisions for low-income individuals.
In recent years, we have been faced with a series of natural disasters causing a tremendous amount of financial, environmental, and human losses. The unpredictable nature of natural disasters' behavior makes it hard to have a comprehensive situational awareness (SA) to support disaster management. Using opinion surveys…
NDI aims to forecast future natural disasters risk for insurers.
Study proposes a tax-based system to share disaster risk among regions.
Modeling complex systems with multi-resolution data and causal dependencies.
Study uses SVM to predict weather-induced home insurance claims and losses.
Automatic post-disaster damage detection using aerial imagery is crucial for quick assessment of damage caused by disaster and development of a recovery plan. The main problem preventing us from creating an applicable model in practice is that damaged (positive) examples we are trying to detect are much harder to obtai…
Proposes a new Hawkes process bandit model for disaster search and rescue.
The study uses machine learning to predict CAT bond coupons based on climate data.
This paper classifies typhoon damage features using aerial photography.
Unified framework for growth models with environmental risk and pollution-dependent disasters.
In all types of disasters, from earthquakes to armed conflicts, aid workers need accurate and timely data such as damage to buildings and population displacement to mount an effective response. Remote sensing provides this data at an unprecedented scale, but extracting operationalizable information from satellite image…
Stocks of more resilient firms outperformed during the pandemic, reflecting disaster risk.
Study explores rumor spread on Twitter using supervised learning.
DASC combines social media and car sensors to improve disaster response.
The study examines how formal index insurance compares to informal risk sharing in managing natural disasters.
I-AID categorizes disaster tweets into useful information types.
Many post-disaster and -conflict regions do not have sufficient data on their transportation infrastructure assets, hindering both mobility and reconstruction. In particular, as the number of aging and deteriorating bridges increase, it is necessary to quantify their load characteristics in order to inform maintenance …
Nostradamus links climate and stock market performance.
Unstructured data from diverse sources, such as social media and aerial imagery, can provide valuable up-to-date information for intelligent situation assessment. Mining these different information sources could bring major benefits to applications such as situation awareness in disaster zones and mapping the spread of…
FAL improves formation resistivity prediction from cased boreholes with noise resistance.
Natural disasters can have catastrophic impacts on the functionality of infrastructure systems and cause severe physical and socio-economic losses. Given budget constraints, it is crucial to optimize decisions regarding mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery practices for these systems. This requires accurate…
Hurricanes are cyclones circulating about a defined center whose closed wind speeds exceed 75 mph originating over tropical and subtropical waters. At landfall, hurricanes can result in severe disasters. The accuracy of predicting their trajectory paths is critical to reduce economic loss and save human lives. Given th…
A crucial and time-sensitive task when any disaster occurs is to rescue victims and distribute resources to the right groups and locations. This task is challenging in populated urban areas, due to the huge burst of help requests generated in a very short period. To improve the efficiency of the emergency response in t…
We present the first fully variational Bayesian inference scheme for continuous Gaussian-process-modulated Poisson processes. Such point processes are used in a variety of domains, including neuroscience, geo-statistics and astronomy, but their use is hindered by the computational cost of existing inference schemes. Ou…
Archetypal analysis represents a set of observations as convex combinations of pure patterns, or archetypes. The original geometric formulation of finding archetypes by approximating the convex hull of the observations assumes them to be real valued. This, unfortunately, is not compatible with many practical situations…
Deep learning enhances water resources management through data analysis.
This paper studies the problem of spectrum shortage in an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) network during critical missions such as wildfire monitoring, search and rescue, and disaster monitoring. Such applications involve a high demand for high-throughput data transmissions such as real-time video-, image-, and voice- st…
We collect and analyze the data for working time, life expectancy, and the pair output and infrastructure of industrializing nations. During S-functional recovery from disaster the pair's time shifts yield 25 years for the infrastructure's physical lifetime. At G7 level the per capita outputs converge and the time shif…
Stock return forecasting is of utmost importance in the business world. This has been the favourite topic of research for many academicians since decades. Recently, regularization techniques have reported to tremendously increase the forecast accuracy of the simple regression model. Still, this model cannot incorporate…
It is a challenging and complex task to acquire information from different regions of a disaster-affected area in a timely fashion. The extensive spread and reach of social media and networks allow people to share information in real-time. However, the processing of social media data and gathering of valuable informati…
Recent financial disasters have emphasised the need to accurately predict extreme financial losses and their consequences for the institutions belonging to a given financial market. The ability of econometric models to predict extreme events strongly relies on their flexibility to account for the highly nonlinear and a…
This paper analyzes extreme flooding risks and proposes insurance and bond solutions.
We develop a simple test for deviations from power law tails, which is based on the asymptotic properties of the empirical distribution function. We use this test to answer the question whether great natural disasters, financial crashes or electricity price spikes should be classified as dragon kings or 'only' as black…
With broad applications in various public services like aviation management and urban disaster warning, numerical precipitation prediction plays a crucial role in weather forecast. However, constrained by the limitation of observation and conventional meteorological models, the numerical precipitation predictions are o…
This study tackles basis risk in weather parametric insurance using Monte Carlo simulations.
Investigates how extreme temperature events affect global equity portfolios.
Spatially-aware model improves earthquake hazard assessment accuracy.
Machine learning research for developing countries can demonstrate clear sustainable impact by delivering actionable and timely information to in-country government organisations (GOs) and NGOs in response to their critical information requirements. We co-create products with UK and in-country commercial, GO and NGO pa…
Census data provide detailed information about population characteristics at a coarse resolution. Nevertheless, fine-grained, high-resolution mappings of population counts are increasingly needed to characterize population dynamics and to assess the consequences of climate shocks, natural disasters, investments in infr…
TelePiT improves S2S forecasting by integrating physics and teleconnections.
Tornadoes are the most violent of all atmospheric storms. In a typical year, the United States experiences hundreds of tornadoes with associated damages on the order of one billion dollars. Community preparation and resilience would benefit from accurate predictions of these economic losses, particularly as populations…
An extreme wind speed estimation method that considers wind hazard climate types is critical for design wind load calculation for building structures affected by mixed climates. However, it is very difficult to obtain wind hazard climate types from meteorological data records, because they restrict the application of e…
RTFN extracts robust temporal features for time series analysis.