Develops algorithm to reduce real-world inequality.
problem Reduces inequality in real-world disparities.
method Impact remediation framework using social science insights and constrained optimization.
result Optimal intervention policies discovered to improve equity.
The emergence of an ageing population is a significant public health concern. This has led to an increase in the number of people living with progressive neurodegenerative disorders like dementia. Consequently, the strain this is places on health and social care services means providing 24-hour monitoring is not sustai…
The paper evaluates various forecasting methods for inflation, finding ML models superior.
problem Forecasting inflation using disaggregated data and machine learning.
method Examines traditional and machine learning models, including random forest, for disaggregated and aggregated inflation forecasts.
result Aggregating disaggregated forecasts performs similarly to survey-based expectations and aggregate models.
New framework for interpreting disaggregated fairness evaluations using causal models.
problem Misinterpretation of disaggregated fairness evaluations due to data representativeness and selection bias.
method Causal graphical models to characterize fairness properties and metric stability under different data generating processes.
result Disaggregated evaluations are unreliable without explicit assumptions regarding bias mechanisms.
SureMap estimates model performance across subpopulations efficiently.
problem Estimating model performance across subpopulations with scarce data.
method Simultaneous Gaussian mean estimation with external data.
result High accuracy in both multi-task and single-task disaggregated evaluations.
We present an approach to estimate the severity of traffic related accidents in aggregated (area-level) and disaggregated (point level) data. Exploring spatial features, we measure complexity of road networks using several area level variables. Also using temporal and other situational features from open data for New Y…
Paper proposes a novel optimization method for disaggregating smart meter data.
problem Energy disaggregation, inferring appliance-specific energy consumption from aggregate meter data.
method Two-stage optimization approach: first phase uses mixed integer programming, second phase binary quadratic optimization with penalty terms and appliance constraints.
result Proposed method successfully reconstructs appliance signatures, overcoming previous optimization-based methods' limitations.
Non-intrusive load monitoring or energy disaggregation involves estimating the power consumption of individual appliances from measurements of the total power consumption of a home. Deep neural networks have been shown to be effective for energy disaggregation. In this work, we present a deep neural network architectur…
As the issue of freshwater shortage is increasing daily, it is critical to take effective measures for water conservation. According to previous studies, device level consumption could lead to significant freshwater conservation. Existing water disaggregation methods focus on learning the signatures for appliances; how…
We propose a clustering-based iterative algorithm to solve certain optimization problems in machine learning, where we start the algorithm by aggregating the original data, solving the problem on aggregated data, and then in subsequent steps gradually disaggregate the aggregated data. We apply the algorithm to common m…
Energy is a limited resource which has to be managed wisely, taking into account both supply-demand matching and capacity constraints in the distribution grid. One aspect of the smart energy management at the building level is given by the problem of real-time detection of flexible demand available. In this paper we pr…
This paper addresses the energy disaggregation problem, i.e. decomposing the electricity signal of a whole home to its operating devices. First, we cast the problem as a dictionary learning (DL) problem where the key electricity patterns representing consumption behaviors are extracted for each device and stored in a d…
tempdisagg transforms low-frequency data into high-frequency estimates.
problem Transforming low-frequency data into high-frequency estimates.
method Uses econometric techniques including Chow-Lin, Denton, Litterman, Fernandez, and uniform interpolation.
result Transforms low-frequency aggregates into consistent, high-frequency estimates.
New algorithm extracts device profiles for short-term power predictions in commercial buildings.
problem Short-term power prediction in commercial buildings with high accuracy.
method Unsupervised extraction of device profiles from aggregate power measurements, disaggregation using particle swarm optimization, and state changes forecast by artificial neural networks.
result Developed approach outperforms existing methods with high accuracy.
This paper presents a novel data-driven technique based on the spatiotemporal pattern network (STPN) for energy/power prediction for complex dynamical systems. Built on symbolic dynamic filtering, the STPN framework is used to capture not only the individual system characteristics but also the pair-wise causal dependen…
We propose a new framework for single-channel source separation that lies between the fully supervised and unsupervised setting. Instead of supervision, we provide input features for each source signal and use convex methods to estimate the correlations between these features and the unobserved signal decomposition. We…
Review and compare sorting model selection methods for preference disaggregation.
problem Selecting a representative sorting model from multiple compatible models.
method Reviewed and proposed new procedures for selecting sorting models, including robust assignment rule.
result Identified most efficient procedures in terms of classification accuracy and robustness.
Energy disaggregation, known in the literature as Non-Intrusive Load Monitoring (NILM), is the task of inferring the power demand of the individual appliances given the aggregate power demand recorded by a single smart meter which monitors multiple appliances. In this paper, we propose a deep neural network that combin…
A new deep learning method for energy disaggregation.
problem Energy disaggregation or non-intrusive load monitoring (NILM) to identify individual appliance power usage.
method Sequence to Point Learning based on Bidirectional Dilated Residual Network (BRDN).
result Our method outperforms state-of-the-art approaches in all appliances on REDD and UK-DALE datasets.
Most electricity systems worldwide are deploying advanced metering infrastructures to collect relevant operational data. In particular, smart meters allow tracking electricity load consumption at a very disaggregated level and at high frequency rates. This data opens the possibility of developing new forecasting models…
A new method improves AI fairness assessment by estimating performance across intersectional subgroups.
problem Limited evaluation of AI systems across intersectional subgroups due to small sample sizes.
method Structured regression approach to disaggregated evaluation.
result Our method yields more accurate performance estimates, especially for small subgroups.
Though distribution system operators have been adding more sensors to their networks, they still often lack an accurate real-time picture of the behavior of distributed energy resources such as demand responsive electric loads and residential solar generation. Such information could improve system reliability, economic…
Novel approach uses Gaussian processes to estimate conflict trends.
problem Estimating temporal and spatial patterns of violent conflict.
method Highly disaggregated conflict event data with Gaussian processes.
result Powerful conflict forecasts and insights into conflict dynamics.
Energy disaggregation in a non-intrusive way estimates appliance level electricity consumption from a single meter that measures the whole house electricity demand. Recently, with the ongoing increment of energy data, there are many data-driven deep learning architectures being applied to solve the non-intrusive energy…
The S&P500 daily values and log-returns fail to conform to Benford's laws, revealing underlying trends.
problem Testing financial data for conformity to Benford's laws.
method Analyzed S&P500 daily closing values and log-returns over 16,265 days, disaggregating at five levels.
result S&P500 daily values show a huge lack of conformity to Benford's laws, with missing first and first two digits.
Novel approach integrates Multivariate Square-root Lasso into Synthetic Control for high-dimensional data.
problem Challenges in practical implementation and computational efficiency of Synthetic Control method for high-dimensional disaggregated data.
method Integrates Multivariate Square-root Lasso into Synthetic Control framework.
result Demonstrates superior computational efficiency without compromising estimation accuracy.
Estimates joint causal effects using single-variable interventions on nonlinear models.
problem Estimating joint causal effects from single-variable interventions.
method Identifiability result and practical estimator for decomposing causal effects.
result Joint effects can be inferred without joint interventional data for nonlinear additive models.
Multidimensional data have become ubiquitous and are frequently encountered in situations where the information is aggregated over multiple data atoms. The aggregation can be over time or other features, such as geographical location. We often have access to multiple aggregated views of the same data, each aggregated i…
This paper tackles CRL for multi-node interventions, achieving identifiability guarantees.
problem CRL under unknown multi-node interventions, focusing on single-node assumptions.
method Establishes identifiability results for general latent causal models under stochastic interventions.
result Identifiability up to ancestors using soft interventions, perfect identifiability using hard interventions.
This work tackles causal graph discovery with stochastic interventions to minimize the number of interventions.
problem Discovering the true causal graph from observational data with limited interventions.
method Proposes a stochastic intervention model and studies verification and search problems with approximation algorithms.
result Provides approximation algorithms with competitive ratios for verification and search problems.
Causal diagrams based on do intervention are useful tools to formalize, process and understand causal relationship among variables. However, the do intervention has controversial interpretation of causal questions for non-manipulable variables, and it also lacks the power to check the conditions related to counterfactu…
Our goal is to identify beneficial interventions from observational data. We consider interventions that are narrowly focused (impacting few covariates) and may be tailored to each individual or globally enacted over a population. For applications where harmful intervention is drastically worse than proposing no change…
Paper proposes scalable algorithm to estimate intervention targets in linear models.
problem Estimating intervention targets in linear models from observational and interventional data.
method The paper proposes a scalable algorithm that estimates intervention sites from the difference between precision matrices of observational and interventional datasets.
result The algorithm consistently identifies all intervention targets and updates observational Markov equivalence classes to interventional ones.
New method disentangles mixed interventional and observational data in SEMs.
problem Learning causal relationships from mixed interventional and observational data.
method Developed a method to disentangle mixed interventional and observational data in linear SEMs with Gaussian noise.
result The method can identify causal graphs up to their interventional Markov Equivalence Class.
The paper presents a method to estimate joint interventional distributions from marginal interventional data.
problem Estimating joint interventional distributions from marginal interventional data.
method The paper extends the Causal Maximum Entropy method to use interventional data and employs Lagrange duality to prove the solution lies in the exponential family.
result The method allows for causal feature selection and inference of joint interventional distributions.
State aggregation is a popular model reduction method rooted in optimal control. It reduces the complexity of engineering systems by mapping the system's states into a small number of meta-states. The choice of aggregation map often depends on the data analysts' knowledge and is largely ad hoc. In this paper, we propos…
Bayesian method for causal discovery from unknown general interventions.
problem Learning causal DAGs from unknown interventions that modify parent sets.
method Bayesian approach with MCMC for approximating posterior DAGs and intervention targets.
result Bayesian method can identify DAGs and intervention targets up to equivalence classes.
Interventional data helps identify latent factors without distributional assumptions.
problem Identifying latent factors from interventional data without distributional assumptions.
method Leveraging geometric signatures of latent factors' support from interventional data.
result Latent causal factors can be identified up to permutation and scaling given data from perfect do-interventions.
IntDC framework uncovers causal relationships from non-interventional data.
problem Detecting causal relationships in non-interventional complex systems.
method Interventional Embedding Entropy (IEE) for causal strength measurement.
result IEE accurately finds causal edges and quantifies causal strength robustly.
Algorithm detects causal change points quickly with adaptive interventions.
problem Detecting changes in causal models with interventions.
method Centralization technique, Kullback-Leibler divergence for intervention selection, adaptive intervention policy.
result Theoretical first-order optimality and validation through simulations and real-world studies.
Method learns causal effects from multiple interventions in presence of unobserved confounders.
problem Disentangling causal effects from sets of interventions in the presence of unobserved confounders.
method Non-linear structural causal models with additive, multivariate Gaussian noise; algorithm that learns causal model parameters by pooling data from different regimes and maximizing combined likelihood.
result Identification proofs demonstrate that causal effects of single interventions can be learned from sets of interventions, even with unobserved confounders.
New algorithms improve causal graph discovery with adaptive interventions, even under worst-case interventional costs.
problem Discover causal relationships from data with adaptive interventions and node-dependent costs.
method Define new benchmarks and provide adaptive search algorithms for causal graph discovery.
result Logarithmic approximations achieved under various settings: atomic, bounded size interventions and generalized cost objectives.
We address the problem of optimal Central Bank intervention in the exchange rate market when interventions create feedback in the rate dynamics. In particular, we extend the work done on optimal impulse control by Cadenillas and Zapatero to incorporate temporary market reactions, of random duration and level, to Bank i…
GIT uses gradient estimators to target interventions for causal discovery.
problem Challenges in inferring causal structure from observational data.
method GIT uses gradient estimators to target interventions for causal discovery.
result GIT performs on par with competitive baselines, surpassing them in low-data regimes.
Paper relaxes faithfulness assumption for causal discovery using interventions.
problem Violation of faithfulness assumption in natural systems leads to incorrect causal structure identification.
method Use intervention-immediacy faithfulness assumption to identify causal structures with hard interventions.
result Interventions contain information about causal structure that can identify causal structures when faithfulness is violated.
New method for disaggregate electricity demand forecasting at household level.
problem Challenges in forecasting electricity demand at individual household level.
method Additive stacking method for probabilistic disaggregate electricity demand forecasting.
result Improved accuracy in disaggregate electricity demand forecasting.
FMI uses matching to mimic interventions for causal feature learning.
problem Challenges in causal discovery from observational data.
method Feature Matching Intervention (FMI) using matching to emulate perfect interventions.
result FMI outperforms in identifying causal features from observational data.
BaCaDI discovers causal structures from unknown interventions.
problem Inferring causal structures from unknown interventions with limited data.
method Bayesian framework with gradient-based variational inference.
result BaCaDI outperforms related methods in identifying causal structures and intervention targets.