Predicting delayed outcomes in recommender systems using proxies.
problem Predicting delayed outcomes in recommender systems.
method Formalized as adversarial, delayed online learning problem; proposed Factored Forecaster (FF) and Residual Factored Forecaster (RFF) neural network architectures.
result Residual Factored Forecaster (RFF) outperforms direct forecaster and Factored Forecaster (FF) in predicting human behavior.
Optimizes portfolios with delayed economic factors.
problem Optimizing portfolios in markets with delayed economic factors.
method Maximizing power utility through QFBSDEs, verified by super-martingale argument.
result Existence and uniqueness of solutions to QFBSDEs.
New bandit problem with delayed, aggregated feedback analyzed.
problem Stochastic K K K -armed bandit problem with delayed, aggregated anonymous feedback. method Developed algorithm matching worst case regret of non-anonymous problem.
result Regret increase can be maintained in the harder delayed, aggregated anonymous feedback setting.
New algorithm tackles delayed feedback in Lipschitz bandits with sublinear regret.
problem Delayed feedback in Lipschitz bandits.
method Design of algorithms for bounded and unbounded stochastic delays.
result Sublinear regret guarantees for both bounded and unbounded delays.
The paper develops a reinforcement learning model to estimate ad impact considering delayed and cumulative effects.
problem Accurately estimating ad impact considering delayed and long-term effects, cumulative impacts, and customer heterogeneity.
method Modeling ad bidding as a Contextual Markov Decision Process (CMDP) with delayed Poisson rewards, proposing a two-stage maximum likelihood estimator and reinforcement learning algorithm.
result Achieves a near-optimal regret bound of O ~ ( d H 2 T ) \tilde{O}{(dH^2\sqrt{T})} O ~ ( d H 2 T ) , validating the approach through simulation experiments. Factor analysis is broadly used as a powerful unsupervised machine learning tool for reconstruction of hidden features in recorded mixtures of signals. In the case of a linear approximation, the mixtures can be decomposed by a variety of model-free Blind Source Separation (BSS) algorithms. Most of the available BSS alg…
This study aims to predict vessel stay and delay times at ports to optimize logistics.
problem Uncertainties in maritime logistics, including weather, cargo diversity, and port dynamics, lead to increased costs and inefficiencies.
method Developed predictive analytics to address shortcomings in previous works, using feature analysis and SHAP explanations.
result Predictive analytics can assist in efficient planning and scheduling of port operations, reducing costs and improving logistics.
Capacity-Constrained Online Convex Optimization with Delayed Feedback
problem Online learning with delayed feedback under a hard capacity constraint
method Reduction to a delayed and weighted OCO problem using a scheduler
result First regret guarantees for capacity-constrained OCO under convex and strongly convex losses
Adapts Exp3 to adversarial bandits with delays and data.
problem Adversarial multi-armed bandits with delayed feedback.
method Tuned Exp3 variants with step-size adaptation and implicit exploration.
result Optimal regret bounds of log ( K ) ( T K + D ) \sqrt{\log(K)(TK + D)} log ( K ) ( T K + D ) with high probability. The study analyzes how bonus-malus systems and delayed claims settlement affect insurance companies' financial stability.
problem Analyzing the impact of bonus-malus systems and delayed claims settlement on insurance companies' financial stability.
method Examined a discrete-time risk model with time-varying premiums, evaluating two types of claims and settlement delays.
result Delayed settlement of by-claims leads to lower ruin probabilities under specific assumptions.
Optimal strategy for reinforcement learning with delayed observations.
problem Delayed state observation in reinforcement learning.
method Combines augmentation method and upper confidence bound approach.
result Minimax optimal regret bound of i l d e O ( H D max S A K ) ilde{\mathcal{O}}(H \sqrt{D_{\max} SAK}) i l d e O ( H D m a x S A K ) . New algorithm for decentralized online convex optimization with unknown delays.
problem Decentralized online convex optimization with unknown, time-varying feedback delays.
method Proposes a novel algorithm that incorporates adaptive learning rates and gossip-based delay estimation.
result Achieves improved regret bounds of O(N √d tot + N √T (1-σ^2)^(1/4)) and O(N δmax ln T α) for different settings.
This paper analyzes a hybrid reinsurance and investment game with bounded memory.
problem A hybrid stochastic differential reinsurance and investment game between reinsurer and insurers.
method Stochastic Stackelberg differential subgame and non-zero-sum stochastic differential subgame, using backward induction and dynamic programming.
result Derive equilibrium strategy and value functions explicitly, showing how delay and competition affect strategies.
New algorithm reduces regret in collaborative multi-agent bandit problems.
problem Optimizing decisions in a network of agents with communication delays.
method Follow-the-Regularized-Leader (FTRL) algorithm with suitable regularizers and communication protocols.
result Upper bound on individual regret matches lower bound up to a constant factor.
New method constructs multilayer networks from financial data, capturing dependencies across different risk factors.
problem Difficult construction of multilayer networks, neglecting time delays and interdependencies.
method Tucker tensor autoregression for direct multilayer network construction.
result Captures within and between connections, identifies strong interconnections between volumes and prices layers.
We present a novel factor analysis method that can be applied to the discovery of common factors shared among trajectories in multivariate time series data. These factors satisfy a precedence-ordering property: certain factors are recruited only after some other factors are activated. Precedence-ordering arise in appli…
Framework LiLY recovers latent causal variables from time-series data under distribution shifts.
problem Learning and correcting models under unknown distribution shifts in time-series data.
method LiLY framework that recovers latent causal variables and identifies their relations from temporal data under different distribution shifts.
result The framework reliably identifies time-delayed latent causal influences from observed variables under different distribution changes.
Proposes using Dynamic Mode Decomposition with delays for short-term human motion anticipation.
problem Lack of interpretability and explainability in neural network-based motion anticipation methods.
method Dynamic Mode Decomposition with delays for motion representation and prediction.
result Anticipation errors comparable or better than recurrent neural networks for very short times.
This paper tackles delayed feedback in continuous training for CTR prediction, improving model performance by 3%.
problem Delayed feedback in CTR prediction leads to inferior performance and user experience.
method Comparing 5 loss functions and models in offline and online settings.
result Proposed methods outperform previous state-of-the-art by 3% relative cross entropy (RCE).
Develops a stochastic approach to financial market delays.
problem Modeling delays in financial markets with multiple assets.
method Introduces a general stochastic framework for information and order execution delays.
result Delayed markets maintain fundamental asset pricing theorems and no asymptotic free lunch condition.
Paper tackles action delays in reinforcement learning, proposing a delay-aware framework.
problem Action delays degrade reinforcement learning performance in real-world systems.
method Formal definition of delay-aware MDP, transformation into standard MDP with augmented states, delay-aware model-based reinforcement learning framework.
result Proposed framework is more efficient in training and transferable between systems with various delay durations.
A new Python-C++ framework for agent-based simulation.
problem Understanding market dynamics and effects of delays.
method User-friendly Python API with efficient C++ implementation, message-driven architecture.
result Investigated the role of order processing delay in financial markets.
New algorithms ensure fair selection in combinatorial semi-bandit with unrestricted delays.
problem Fair selection in stochastic combinatorial semi-bandit with delayed feedback.
method Introduced merit-based fairness constraints and new bandit algorithms for reward and fairness.
result Achieved sublinear expected reward and fairness regrets with dependence on delay distribution quantiles.
Banker-OMD improves online learning with delayed feedback.
problem Handling delayed feedback in online learning.
method Generalized Online Mirror Descent (OMD) framework.
result Achieves nearly-optimal performance in three bandit scenarios.
New algorithm handles delayed feedback robustly, reducing regret without knowing delay bounds.
problem Bandits with variably delayed feedback, especially excessive delays.
method Implicit exploration scheme, adaptive skipping, drifted regret control.
result Can tolerate arbitrary excessive delays up to order T, reducing regret.
Proposes a nonparametric model for predicting conversion rates with delayed feedback.
problem Predicting conversion rates with time delays and unknown distribution.
method Nonparametric delayed feedback model without assuming a specific distribution.
result The proposed model outperforms existing methods in conversion rate prediction.
Gradient descent with delayed updates converges faster with noise, even when delays are significant.
problem Analyzing convergence of gradient descent with delayed gradients and stochastic noise.
method Novel technique using generating functions for convergence analysis.
result Convergence bounds show that stochastic noise mitigates the negative effects of delays, improving performance.
New algorithm for multiarmed bandits with variable, unbounded delays achieves similar regret bounds.
problem Variable, unbounded delays in multiarmed bandits.
method Introduces a new algorithm that skips rounds with excessively large delays and uses a doubling scheme.
result Achieves the same regret bound as Exp3 with variable, unbounded delays.
Paper tackles delays in multi-agent reinforcement learning, improving performance.
problem Challenges in reinforcement learning due to delays in real-world systems.
method Proposes a novel framework for multi-agent reinforcement learning with delays, using Delay-Aware Markov Games and centralized-decentralized training.
result Demonstrates significant improvement in performance with delay-aware multi-agent reinforcement learning.
Derives a Feynman-Kac formula for a fixed delay CIR model.
problem Modeling financial processes with fixed delay.
method Proves existence and uniqueness of a strong solution for a specific SDDE.
result Derives a Feynman-Kac type formula leading to an affine bond pricing formula.
Study on synchronization in financial markets with time delays.
problem Understanding market dynamics and synchronization in financial systems with time delays.
method Examined a system of coupled non-linear delay-differential equations, linearized for small delays, and analyzed collective dynamics using bifurcation diagrams and numerical solutions.
result Demonstrated that limit cycles can be maintained in coupled N-asset models with appropriate parameterization, leading to market synchronization.
BayTiDe discovers time-delayed differential equations from noisy data.
problem Discovering time-delayed differential equations from data with large delays and noise.
method Bayesian inference with a sparsity-promoting prior.
result BayTiDe accurately identifies time-delayed differential equations with accuracy proportional to data resolution.
Model analyzes how delayed information impacts option pricing.
problem Effects of delayed information on option pricing.
method Binomial model, closed form formula for convex contingent claims, convergence analysis.
result Delayed information exaggerates the volatility smile.
New algorithm tackles stochastic bandits with varying arm-dependent delays.
problem Applying existing algorithms to stochastic delayed bandit settings is restricted by strong assumptions on delay distributions.
method Proposes a simple UCB-based algorithm called PatientBandits that weakens assumptions on delay distributions.
result Provides bounds on regret and performance lower bounds for the PatientBandits algorithm.
TSMB handles time delays in multivariate time series data.
problem Varying time delays in multivariate time series data complicate predictions.
method Time Series Model Bootstrap (TSMB) framework for nonparametric time delay estimation.
result TSMB improves model performance in dynamic data environments.
Delayed-RNN approximates stacked and bidirectional RNNs.
problem Improving RNN expressiveness and representational capacity.
method Weight-constrained delayed-RNN, equivalent to stacked-RNNs, with partial acausality.
result Delayed-RNN can approximate stacked and bidirectional RNNs, outperforming them in some tasks.
New algorithm reduces regret in delayed feedback generalised linear bandits.
problem Regret in delayed feedback generalised linear bandits.
method Adaptation of optimistic algorithm to delayed feedback.
result Achieves a regret bound independent of the horizon's delay penalty.
New algorithm tackles non-stationary delayed feedback in recommender systems.
problem Challenges in learning from delayed feedback in non-stationary environments.
method Developed a UCRL-based algorithm for non-stationary, delayed bandits with intermediate observations.
result Sublinear regret guarantees for the proposed algorithm in non-stationary delayed environments.
This paper optimizes autonomous vehicle controllers using data-driven methods.
problem Designing robust controllers for autonomous vehicles that handle external and internal disturbances.
method Data-driven approach using principal component analysis and time delay neural networks.
result Improved controller performance through a feed-forward compensator.
PCTS optimizes noisy, delayed, multi-fidelity feedbacks in black-box optimization.
problem Optimizing unknown functions with noisy, delayed, and multi-fidelity feedbacks.
method ProCrastinated Tree Search (PCTS) with DUCB1 and DUCBV algorithms.
result PCTS achieves better regret bounds for delayed, noisy, and multi-fidelity feedbacks.
Study online learning with delays and capacity constraints, achieving optimal regret bounds.
problem Online learning with delays and capacity constraints.
method Novel scheduling and preemptive techniques, matching upper and lower bounds.
result Achieves optimal regret bounds across all capacity levels.
Study market delay effects on contingent claims pricing.
problem Delayed market information impacts contingent claims pricing.
method Analyzes Black-Scholes and binomial models with delay.
result Scaling limit of super-replication prices equals G-expectation.
New Async-SGD and Async-SGDI methods converge for non-convex problems with unbounded delays.
problem Improving convergence of asynchronous stochastic gradient descent with unbounded delays in non-convex learning.
method Developed Async-SGD and Async-SGDI methods for non-convex optimization with unbounded gradient delays, proving convergence rates and establishing a unifying sufficient condition.
result Proved o ( 1 / k ) o(1/\sqrt{k}) o ( 1/ k ) convergence rate for Async-SGD and o ( 1 / k ) o(1/k) o ( 1/ k ) for Async-SGDI. Online learning with delayed feedback has received increasing attention recently due to its several applications in distributed, web-based learning problems. In this paper we provide a systematic study of the topic, and analyze the effect of delay on the regret of online learning algorithms. Somewhat surprisingly, it t…
Federated learning technique improves convergence speed with communication delays.
problem Communication delays between edge nodes and aggregator in federated learning.
method Developed FedDelAvg, a technique that generalizes federated averaging to incorporate a weighting between current local model and delayed global model.
result FedDelAvg achieves a significant improvement in convergence speed, especially when optimizing the weighting scheme to account for delays.
A novel observer-based method detects and recovers anomalies in CAV sensor readings.
problem Improving safety and security in connected and automated vehicles.
method Combines model-based signal filtering and anomaly detection methods using AEKF and OCSVM.
result The proposed method achieves better anomaly detection performance compared to traditional methods.
Study uses randomized allocation for delayed rewards in multi-armed bandits.
problem Delayed rewards in contextual multi-armed bandits.
method Randomized allocation with nonparametric estimation.
result Strongly consistent strategy for delayed rewards.
New algorithms handle unknown delays in online learning problems.
problem Handling unknown delays in bandit online learning.
method DEXP3 for MAB and DBGD for BCO, with a unified analysis.
result Regret bounds of O ( K d ˉ ( T + D ) ) {\cal O}\big( \sqrt{K\bar{d}(T+D)} \big) O ( K d ˉ ( T + D ) ) for DEXP3 and O ( K ( T + D ) ) {\cal O}\big( \sqrt{K(T+D)} \big) O ( K ( T + D ) ) for DBGD.