Decision stumps accurately screen variables in nonparametric models.
problem Challenges in theoretical properties of tree-based variable importance measures.
method Derive performance guarantees for variable selection using a single-level CART decision tree (decision stump).
result Decision stumps can perform consistent model selection despite being inaccurate for estimation.
This paper tackles robustness of ensemble stumps and trees under general ℓ_p norm perturbations.
problem The vulnerability of ensemble stumps and trees to small input perturbations under the ℓ_∞ norm.
method Developed dynamic programming algorithms for robustness verification and certified defense under general ℓ_p norm perturbations.
result First certified defense method for ensemble stumps and trees under ℓ_p norm perturbations.
The problem of adversarial robustness has been studied extensively for neural networks. However, for boosted decision trees and decision stumps there are almost no results, even though they are widely used in practice (e.g. XGBoost) due to their accuracy, interpretability, and efficiency. We show in this paper that for…
Optimal sparse recovery with decision stumps achieves strong feature selection guarantees.
problem Sparse recovery of active features from high-dimensional data.
method Analysis of single-depth decision trees (decision stumps) for feature selection in linear regression.
result Tight sample performance guarantees for O(slogp), improving upon previous bounds. Additive models, such as produced by gradient boosting, and full interaction models, such as classification and regression trees (CART), are widely used algorithms that have been investigated largely in isolation. We show that these models exist along a spectrum, revealing never-before-known connections between these t…
We present a formal proof in Lean of probably approximately correct (PAC) learnability of the concept class of decision stumps. This classic result in machine learning theory derives a bound on error probabilities for a simple type of classifier. Though such a proof appears simple on paper, analytic and measure-theoret…
The significance of the study of the theoretical and practical properties of AdaBoost is unquestionable, given its simplicity, wide practical use, and effectiveness on real-world datasets. Here we present a few open problems regarding the behavior of "Optimal AdaBoost," a term coined by Rudin, Daubechies, and Schapire …
The study analyzes decision trees on real and categorical features, deriving bounds on their VC dimension and proposing improved pruning algorithms.
problem Understanding the generalization properties of decision trees on different types of features.
method Introducing partitioning functions, relating them to growth functions and VC dimension, and deriving bounds for decision stumps and trees of various structures.
result Exact VC dimension of decision stumps and improved pruning algorithms for binary trees.
Boosted decision trees typically yield good accuracy, precision, and ROC area. However, because the outputs from boosting are not well calibrated posterior probabilities, boosting yields poor squared error and cross-entropy. We empirically demonstrate why AdaBoost predicts distorted probabilities and examine three cali…
One of the objectives of designing feature selection learning algorithms is to obtain classifiers that depend on a small number of attributes and have verifiable future performance guarantees. There are few, if any, approaches that successfully address the two goals simultaneously. Performance guarantees become crucial…
Designing effective and efficient classifier for pattern analysis is a key problem in machine learning and computer vision. Many the solutions to the problem require to perform logic operations such as `and', `or', and `not'. Classification and regression tree (CART) include these operations explicitly. Other methods s…
The paper studies statistical properties of CART regression trees.
problem Understanding the statistical properties of CART regression trees.
method The paper constructs a prior distribution on split points and solves a nonlinear optimization problem to bound the Pearson correlation between the optimal decision stump and response data.
result CART with cost-complexity pruning achieves an optimal complexity/goodness-of-fit tradeoff when the depth scales with the logarithm of the sample size.
HS improves tree-based models' accuracy and interpretability without changing their structure.
problem Overfitting in tree-based models.
method Hierarchical Shrinkage (HS) post-hoc algorithm that shrinks tree predictions towards ancestor means.
result HS significantly improves predictive performance and interpretability of decision trees and RFs.
There is a large literature explaining why AdaBoost is a successful classifier. The literature on AdaBoost focuses on classifier margins and boosting's interpretation as the optimization of an exponential likelihood function. These existing explanations, however, have been pointed out to be incomplete. A random forest …
This research simplifies verification of machine learning systems using reparameterization.
problem Reduce or eliminate serious bugs in machine learning systems.
method Use proof assistants to construct machine-checked proofs of correctness, leveraging reparameterization to handle probabilistic claims.
result Demonstrates broad applicability of reparameterization to verify different types of machine learning systems.
Machine Learning focuses on the construction and study of systems that can learn from data. This is connected with the classification problem, which usually is what Machine Learning algorithms are designed to solve. When a machine learning method is used by people with no special expertise in machine learning, it is im…
Improved symbolic regression finds optimal formulas robust to noise.
problem Finding accurate formulas for noisy data.
method Exploits graph modularity, uses normalizing flows, and statistical hypothesis testing.
result Discoveres many formulas previously unattainable.
Study private query release with public data, reducing sample sizes.
problem Answering a wide range of statistical queries while maintaining privacy.
method Combines public and private samples to answer queries with differential privacy.
result Private and public sample complexities for different query classes.
Boosting combines weak hypotheses to create accurate predictions under bounded VC dimension.
problem How to combine weak hypotheses to achieve accurate predictions efficiently.
method Designing a novel boosting algorithm with complex aggregation rules for bounded VC dimension classes.
result The new boosting algorithm requires fewer weak hypotheses than classical lower bounds, provided they belong to a bounded VC class.
Unified framework connects credit risk metrics with information theory.
problem Disconnection between industry-standard metrics and statistical theory.
method Unified information-theoretic framework, proving IV equals PSI, deriving standard errors, formalizing trade-off, automated binning with XGBoost.
result Unified framework connects IV and PSI, providing statistical foundation for metrics.
Decision Machines embeds decision trees into vector spaces for improved optimization.
problem Overfitting and difficulty in finding optimal decision tree structure.
method Embedding Boolean tests into a binary vector space and representing tree structure as matrices.
result Optimized decision trees with enhanced predictive power.
Study optimal investment under imitation of decision-changing rates.
problem Optimal investment under imitation of decision-changing rates.
method Proposed integral disparity to quantify imitation, derived general solution using variational method, analyzed asymptotic properties, validated with real data.
result Investor's optimal decisions under imitation of decision-changing rates.
The Chain-of-Decision approach improves forecasting of financial professionals' trading decisions.
problem Challenges in forecasting professionals' behaviors, especially in trading decisions.
method Integrates an opinion-generator-in-the-loop to provide subjective analysis based on news items.
result Promising improvements in the proposed tasks' performance.
dtControl uses decision trees to represent controllers efficiently and explainably.
problem Representing controllers concisely and explainably.
method dtControl uses decision tree learning algorithms to represent controllers. Novel techniques for determinizing controllers are introduced.
result Novel techniques for determinizing controllers during decision tree construction are extremely efficient, yielding small decision trees.
New research shows machine-assisted decisions can still be unfair even when the algorithm is fair.
problem Ensuring fairness in decisions made with machine-assisted human input.
method Formal model and lab experiment to analyze how machine predictions affect human decisions.
result Excluding information about protected groups from machine predictions can increase disparities.
This review explores causal decision-making to improve decision quality.
problem Effective decision-making requires understanding causal relationships.
method Causal structure learning, causal effect learning, and causal policy learning.
result Challenges in causal decision-making are identified and recent advances are discussed.
Decision-alignment evaluates uncertainty quantification for decision-relevant UQ
problem Evaluation of uncertainty quantification metrics
method Introduce decision-alignment
result Proper scoring rules align with decision utility
New decision-theoretic characterization separates belief and decision posteriors.
problem Understanding the conditions under which loss-based updating coincides with Bayesian updating.
method Decision-theoretic approach to distinguish belief and decision posteriors.
result Generalized Bayes coincides with ordinary Bayesian updating only if the loss is proportional to negative log-likelihood.
CREDO assesses decision optimality under uncertainty without assuming a model.
problem Uncertainty in decision-making without reliable quantification of optimality.
method CREDO uses the inverse feasible region and conformal prediction balls to estimate decision optimality probability.
result CREDO provides accurate, efficient, and reliable evaluations of decision optimality.
New approach calibrates predictions for better decision-making.
problem Achieving reliable predictions for multi-class problems is hard.
method Introduces decision calibration, a new approach to calibrate predictions.
result Designs a recalibration algorithm that makes predictions reliable for decision-making.
RISE learns decisions with sensitive variables, improving worst-case outcomes.
problem Uncertainty and bias in decisions due to delayed sensitive variable data.
method Incorporates sensitive variables offline but not at deployment, using quantile or infimum optimization.
result Improves worst-case outcomes for individuals affected by unavailable sensitive variables.
Study optimal investment with herd behavior using rational decision decomposition.
problem Optimal investment problem considering herd behavior between two agents.
method Introduce average deviation term, use variational method, rational decision decomposition, investment opinion.
result Quantitative analysis of herd behavior impact on investment decisions.
Develops BPDS for better financial portfolio decisions.
problem Model uncertainty in financial time series forecasting.
method Bayesian dynamic modelling and predictive decision synthesis.
result Improved predictive and decision outcomes compared to traditional Bayesian analysis.
The paper addresses the difficulty of decision makers trusting AI-assisted predictions and proposes a method to improve confidence values.
problem Decision makers struggle to trust AI-assisted predictions based on confidence values.
method The paper investigates why decision makers have difficulties and proposes a method to construct more useful confidence values.
result Multicalibration with respect to the decision maker's confidence on her own predictions is a sufficient condition for alignment, leading to better decisions.
The study shows interest rates impact investment and funding negatively but positively on dividend decisions.
problem The effect of interest rates on financial decisions like investment, funding, and dividend.
method Correlation coefficient analysis and descriptive methods.
result Interest rates have a negatively insignificant effect on investment and funding decisions, but positively moderate effect on dividend decisions.
This paper develops a framework for efficient decision-making under time pressure.
problem Efficient decision-making under time pressure and subjective tradeoffs.
method Unified framework for evidence-based decision-making under time pressure.
result Ability to model and understand decision-making behavior under time constraints.
VisRuler simplifies decision extraction from bagged and boosted trees.
problem Complexity and lack of interpretability in ensemble models.
method Visual analytics tool for selecting robust models, important features, and essential decisions.
result Users successfully extracted and explained decisions from ensemble models.
A new framework designs experiments for better decision-making.
problem Suboptimal experimental designs for downstream decision-making.
method Amortized decision-aware Bayesian Experimental Design (BED) with Transformer Neural Decision Process (TNDP).
result TNDP effectively designs experiments and facilitates accurate decision-making.
New algorithms optimize decision rules in strategic scenarios, minimizing prediction risk and incentivizing better outcomes.
problem Strategic agents manipulate features to improve outcomes, complicating decision-making models.
method Efficient algorithms for learning decision rules that minimize prediction risk, incentivize better outcomes, and estimate true model coefficients.
result Optimal decision rules can be learned through testing and observing agent responses, circumventing hardness results.
Improved model-free reinforcement learning with decision-estimation coefficient.
problem Interactive decision making, including structured bandits and reinforcement learning.
method Combining Estimation-to-Decisions with optimistic estimation to achieve better regret bounds.
result Regret bounds for model-free reinforcement learning with value function approximation.
The paper tackles uncertainty in multi-objective decision-making.
problem Learning Pareto-efficient decisions with statistical confidence in uncertain outcomes.
method Adapting Pareto-efficient decisions to uncertainty, using conformal prediction.
result Statistical guarantees for efficient decisions in uncertain contexts.
New decision-theoretic calibration error metric improves prediction reliability.
problem Improving the reliability of predictions for decision-making.
method Proposed Calibration Decision Loss (CDL) and an efficient algorithm to achieve near-optimal CDL.
result Near-optimal CDL guarantees vanishing payoff loss from miscalibration.
Framework adds human knowledge to AI decisions to improve outcomes.
problem Conflict between AI recommendations and human insights.
method Develops a framework for integrating human knowledge as a guardrail for AI decisions.
result Human knowledge can improve AI decisions, especially in specific pitfalls.
Study minimax-optimal rates for offline decision-making with function approximation.
problem Statistical complexity of offline decision-making with function approximation.
method Near minimax-optimal rates for stochastic contextual bandits and Markov decision processes, using pseudo-dimension and behavior policy.
result Established performance limits and new characterization of behavior policy.
Decision trees improve decision-making by optimizing predictions of unknown parameters.
problem Optimizing decisions based on predicted unknown parameters.
method SPO Trees (SPOTs) for training decision trees under the SPO loss function.
result SPOTs provide higher quality decisions and significantly lower model complexity compared to other machine learning approaches.
Safe autonomous decisions made with machine learning predictions using Conformal Decision Theory.
problem Safe decisions from imperfect machine learning predictions.
method Conformal Decision Theory framework for producing safe decisions.
result Safe decisions with provable statistical guarantees of low risk.
GoBOED optimizes experiments for specific decision-making objectives, improving downstream outcomes.
problem Reducing parameter uncertainty does not always improve decision-making in critical settings.
method Combines variational posterior surrogate and differentiable convex decision layer for gradient-based design optimization.
result GoBOED identifies designs that better align with specific decision objectives and reveals wider optimal design windows.
Societies often rely on human experts to take a wide variety of decisions affecting their members, from jail-or-release decisions taken by judges and stop-and-frisk decisions taken by police officers to accept-or-reject decisions taken by academics. In this context, each decision is taken by an expert who is typically …